This past week, Richard Linklater’s latest pic Everybody Wants Some!! came out in limited release and critical reaction has been strong. This has become typical for its director, who previous effort Boyhood received much Oscar attention (eventually losing in 2014 to Birdman).
His new effort is described as a “spiritual sequel” to his 1993 acclaimed cult classic Dazed and Confused. The 1980s set comedy features a cast of unknowns, though that might not be for long. You’ll recall that the “unknowns” from the aforementioned Dazed included Ben Affleck, Matthew McConaughey, Joey Lauren Adams, Milla Jovovich, and Parker Posey. Everybody currently has a Rotten Tomatoes score of 90%.
So what does this all mean for its Oscar prospects? I would say this stands at outside shot at Best Picture and Director attention, though it’s probably unlikely. Where Some!! could shine is in the Original Screenplay category for Linklater. If so, it would mark his fourth nomination in the writing races (for Boyhood and Before Sunset and Before Midnight). That would appear to be its best chance at Academy attention several months down the road and it’d be foolish to count this celebrated director out.
Much has been ballyhooed about the method in which Richard Linklater’s Boyhood was filmed and with legitimate reason. The 11 year period chronicling the life of Mason (Ellar Coltrane) and his family was indeed shot during that same period of time. From a visual standpoint, it’s remarkable to witness our actors aging in real time. This especially holds true for our central character who we follow from age 6 through his entrance to college.
Boyhood is grand and innovative in its shooting schedule approach and yet small and intimate and simple in the approach of the storytelling. We see Mason grow over time from a kid mostly disinterested in school to a lover of photography who may someday figure out a way to use his talents wisely. There’s a lot of the items young men (and women) may recognize from their own time in those pre-teen and teenage years. Embellishing your sexual history before having one. Experimenting with drugs and alcohol. There’s a scene in which Dad attempts the birds and bees talk with his children and it is probably the most realistic one committed to film. Since our tale takes us from 2002 to 2013, we also see the progression of video games and Apple products and also music. Mason’s sister Samantha (Lorelai Linklater) starts out singing hits by Britney Spears, but as our characters mature – Wilco and mixed tapes featuring Beatles members factor in. As a side note, there’s an amusing discussion at one point about whether another Star Wars would be made long before Linklater and company could have known there would be one. And I’ll be damned if little Ellar Coltrane doesn’t grow up to kind of look like Hayden Christensen.
In some ways, Boyhood is as much about Mason’s family. His parents had their two children young and they didn’t stay together. Mom is played by Patricia Arquette and Dad is Ethan Hawke. Like Mason, we see them grow. Hot rod vehicles become minivans. We see their screw ups too including bad relationships. What is notable about the screenplay is that we see it through the lens of Mason at the age he happens to be in. For instance, we don’t know what Mom does for a living until Mason would be at an age when he would care.
The picture is strongest in the first half of its deliberate two hour and forty five minute running time. One reason: the performances of Coltrane and Linklater work best at that juncture. They are kids acting like real kids and written that way. You don’t always have that in movies and it is refreshing here. We see them competing for their Dad’s affection because they only see him every once in a while. The groundwork that’s layed in the early stages here pave the way for understanding how the principal actors interact with one another later. Much credit is due to the performers. Arquette and Hawke do fine work here and a scene towards the end with Arquette in particular justifies the Oscar buzz.
The quibble with the second half is as follows: sadly, age doesn’t improve the acting of Coltrane and it shows. Linklater is going for something remarkable in his method of directing with the time gaps. His screenplay is aiming for nothing so grand. This is life filled with small moments and very occasional big ones. It’s certainly more grounded in realism than most others and we remain highly involved in the family’s story well beyond watching Mason’s hairstyle change. Still, I can’t pretend as if the limited acting ability of Coltrane isn’t sometimes a distraction because it was for me.
Boyhood takes its time with its characters and isn’t foolish enough to try some big reveal about the “meaning of it all.” It doesn’t try to wrap everything in a tidy bow at the conclusion either. Life will go on. Sometimes it’ll be boring. Sometimes you’ll get to have a moment where you may even realize it’s a meaningful one. The picture itself is one in which I’ll remember mostly for the cool way it was made and the occasional moments where it rises to near greatness. I’ll go ahead and admit that I believe some critics have overrated what my Boyhood experience was. I’m glad I got to spend time with these people though.
Well here we go! The Oscars honoring the best of 2014 in film air this Sunday and after many round of predictions, it’s time to man up and pick up the winners for the final time in all major categories, minus documentary and short film contenders. For each race, I will predict the winner and a runner-up. On Sunday evening or Monday, I’ll post a recap of how I did.
We are officially ten days away from Neil Patrick Harris hosting the Oscars and it seems like a perfect time to chime in with an update on what and who I believe will win in the eight major categories. Next weekend – I’ll provide final predictions in all of the races. Here we go:
BEST PICTURE
Of the eight movies nominated here, it now appears only two have a legit shot at becoming 2014’s Best Picture: Richard Linklater’s Boyhood and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s Birdman. The momentum still appears to be on the side of Linklater’s 12 years in the making family drama.
Predicted Winner: Boyhood
Runner-Up: Birdman
Other Nominees: American Sniper, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Selma, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash
BEST DIRECTOR
Like the Picture race, it’s between Linklater and Inarritu. This practically seems like a coin flip at this point, but I’ll give the Birdman maker the slight edge since he just won the Director’s Guild of America award (often a solid predictor of who wins here).
Other Nominees: Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher), Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)
BEST ACTOR
While Michael Keaton remains the front runner for his Birdman comeback, don’t sleep on the chances of Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything, especially following his somewhat surprising SAG Awards victory. I’m still clinging to Keaton winning though.
Predicted Winner: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Runner-Up: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Other Nominees: Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
BEST ACTRESS
Julianne Moore’s work in Still Alice is widely expected to nab the celebrated actress her first golden statue. Any other winner here would be a rather big surprise.
Predicted Winner: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Runner-Up: Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Other Nominees: Marion Cotillard (Two Days One Night), Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl), Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Another easy race to predict as J.K. Simmons’ turn as the sadistic music teacher in Whiplash has won essentially all precursors. Only a Birdman sweep could mean Edward Norton is victorious and that’s a long shot.
Predicted Winner: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Runner-Up: Edward Norton, Birdman
Other Nominees: Robert Duvall (The Judge), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood), Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Like the two previous acting categories, Patricia Arquette’s Boyhood performance has scored at other awards shows and anyone but her winning would be a massive upset.
Predicted Winner: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Runner-Up: Emma Stone, Birdman
Other Nominees Laura Dern (Wild), Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game), Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
This is one heckuva category but again should come down to Birdman and Boyhood. Like in the Director race, Birdman gets a small edge. Watch out for Budapest as a potential spoiler.
Predicted Winner: Birdman
Runner-Up: Boyhood
Other Nominees: Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Nightcrawler
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
This would appear to be the best chance for The Imitation Game to win a major award, but Theory of Everything may be hot on its heels.
Predicted Winner: The Imitation Game
Runner-Up: The Theory of Everything
Other Nominees: American Sniper, Inherent Vice, Whiplash
And that’ll do it. Keep an eye out for final predictions next weekend!
The Oscar nominations for the 2014 movie year were released this morning. As readers of the blog know, I made my final predictions yesterday evening in the eight major categories. So how did I do?
Well… not too shabby as I see it. Of the 44 nominations predicted, I correctly got 38 which equates to 86% overall and perfect scores in three of the races. Let’s take a look at the categories one by one and, for the first time, I’ll offer my initial thoughts on what and who will win:
BEST PICTURE
As mentioned last night, I finally got on the Nightcrawler bandwagon. Frankly, I should have been thinking more about the American Sniper bandwagon. It’s the only movie that received a nod that I didn’t predict. There were eight nominees instead of my estimated nine, which meant my Foxcatcher and Nightcrawler calls were left off. So overall – 7 out of 9 on Best Picture.
Nominees
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
This appears to be a three film race between Boyhood, Birdman, and The Imitation Game with Boyhood appearing to have the edge. Selma was once thought to be in that mix, but today’s lack of nods in other categories render its chances virtually non-existent.
Current Predicted Winner: Boyhood
BEST DIRECTOR
Went 4 out of 5 here. Bennett Miller’s nomination for Foxcatcher was only surprising because the picture itself wasn’t recognized. I included Ana DuVernay for Selma yet her exclusion isn’t that shocking since Selma has been losing steam.
Nominees
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
For the last two years, Oscar has split their Picture and Director winners. I could easily see a scenario where Boyhood takes top prize with Inarritu’s virtuoso work in Birdman victorious in this category. This is a tough call, but for now I’ll go with Linklater’s heralded and long gestating accomplishment in Boyhood.
Predicted Winner: Linklater
BEST ACTOR
4 for 5 again. This race had turned into a seven man showdown and two were going to be left out. They were David Oyelowo in Selma (who I predicted wouldn’t be nominated) and Jake Gyllenhall in Nightcrawler (I predicted he would). The Sniper love meant Bradley Cooper picked up his third consecutive nomination and he’s the one I left out.
Nominees
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
We’ll keep this short and sweet. Cumberbatch or Redmayne could spoil, but this is Keaton’s race to lose.
Predicted Winner: Keaton
BEST ACTRESS
5 for 5 here! I’ll pat myself on the back for including Marion Cotillard’s “surprise” nom for Two Days One Night. Some were surprised at Jennifer Aniston’s exclusion for Cake, but the film was so small and reviews so not solid that I wasn’t.
Nominees
Marion Cotillard, Two Days One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Like the Best Actor race, we have a big front runner here and it’s Moore (a celebrated and often nominated actress who’s never won). It’s simply hard to imagine any of the other four topping her.
Predicted Winner: Moore
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
5 for 5 again!! Not much to add here as these five actors were the expected nominees and that’s how it panned out.
Nominees
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
I’m starting to sound like a broken record, but again there’s a major front runner. J.K. Simmons has won most of the precursors. Only an extremely good night for Birdman and a Norton upset seems plausible… but not that plausible.
Predicted Winner: Simmons
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
4 for 5 here as Laura Dern’s work in Wild (which I’d predicted previously but took her off) was included and Jessica Chastain’s in A Most Violent Year was excluded.
Nominees
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
The broken record continues as Stone could reap the benefit of a Birdman love fest. However, Arquette seems to be in a solid position for gold.
Predicted Winner: Arquette
Best Original Screenplay
Perfection again – 5 for 5!!! ‘Nuff said…
Nominees
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
This would appear to be the race where Birdman has an ever so slight edge over Boyhood. If there’s a spoiler, it could be Grand Budapest.
Predicted Winner: Birdman
Best Adapted Screenplay
4 for 5. The American Sniper props continued as I didn’t include it. That meant Gillian Flynn’s adaptation of her book Gone Girl was left off… which was a bit of a surprise.
Nominees
American Sniper
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Here, The Imitation Game seems the most likely to win and it’ll likely represent its only victory in the main races.
Predicted Winner: The Imitation Game
As for surprises in the down ticket categories, there were a couple of big ones. In the Animated Feature category, The LEGO Movie was seen to many as a potential winner and it wasn’t even nominated. In the Documentary race, the Roger Ebert pic Life Itself was shockingly left out.
Please note that my current winner predictions are not my final ones and I will have a post up the weekend before the ceremony to make those picks in all categories.
Well here we are! Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning and this is my sixth and final round of predictions for nominees in the eight major categories. For my final predictions, I’ll list the predictions as well as others that could potentially make the cut. Here’s what changed the most: I have finally gotten on the Nightcrawler bandwagon and am now predicting a number of nominations for it. Tomorrow – I”ll have my reaction post up and pontificate on where I went wrong and right.
As you may know, the Best Picture race (unlike all others) can list anywhere from 5-10 nominees. I finally settled on nine… which is the same number of films nominated each year since that system was put into place. And without further adieu – Todd’s Final Oscar Predictions:
Best Picture
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Imitation Game
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Other Possibilities: American Sniper, Gone Girl, Unbroken
Best Director
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ana DuVernay, Selma
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Other Possibilities: Damien Chazelle (Whiplash), Clint Eastwood (American Sniper), David Fincher (Gone Girl), Dan Gilroy (Nightcrawler), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)
Best Actor
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhall, Nightcrawler
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Other Possibilities: Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel), David Oyelowo (Selma)
Best Actress
Marion Cotillard, Two Days One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Other Possibilities: Amy Adams (Big Eyes), Jennifer Aniston (Cake)
Best Supporting Actor
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Other Possibilities: Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice), Tom Wilkinson (Selma)
Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Other Possibilities: Laura Dern (Wild), Rene Russo (Nightcrawler), Tilda Swinton (Snowpiercer), Naomi Watts (St. Vincent)
Best Original Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
Other Possibilities: The LEGO Movie, A Most Violent Year, Selma
Best Adapted Screenplay
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Other Possibilities: American Sniper, Wild
And there you have it, folks! We’ll see how smart (or dumb) I am tomorrow morning!!
We are deep into awards season with Oscar nominations coming Thursday and my final predictions arriving Tuesday. The second most notable awards show arrives tomorrow evening with trusty hosts Tina Fey and Amy Poehler returning to host the Golden Globes. Here are my guesses for what will win at that show in the major categories.
As you may know, unlike the Oscars, the Globes split the Picture and leading performance races between Drama and Musical/Comedy. Here we go!
Best Film (Drama)
Nominees
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
PREDICTED WINNER: Boyhood
POTENTIAL SPOILER: The Imitation Game
Best Film (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Into the Woods
Pride
St. Vincent
PREDICTED WINNER: Birdman
POTENTIAL SPOILER: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Actor (Drama)
Nominees
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhall, Nightcrawler
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
PREDICTED WINNER: Redmayne
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Cumberbatch
Best Actress (Drama)
Nominees
Jennifer Aniston, Cake
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
PREDICTED WINNER: Moore
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Jones
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees
Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Bill Murray, St. Vincent
Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice
Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes
PREDICTED WINNER: Keaton
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Fiennes
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees
Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
Helen Mirren, The Hundred-Foot Journey
Julianne Moore, Map to the Stars
Quvenzhane Wallis, Annie
PREDICTED WINNER: Blunt
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Adams
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
PREDICTED WINNER: Simmons
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Norton
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
PREDICTED WINNER: Arquette
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Stone
Best Director
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ana DuVernay, Selma
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
PREDICTED WINNER: Inarritu
POTENTIAL SPOILER: Linklater
…. And there you have it friends! Let’s see how the Globes turn tomorrow!
OK folks! We’ve arrived at part five of my Oscar predictions and they’re coming to you nine days before the actual nominations are released. This will be my second to last round of predictions. The final ones will likely come a week from today. I’m estimating the eight biggest categories and with the exception of one race, things have changed since my preceding round nearly a month ago.
Unlike previous posts I won’t go into great detail. I’ll save that for next week. Here are predictions as they stand currently with a listing of the changes I’ve made over the past four weeks:
BEST PICTURE
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
CHANGES
IN: American Sniper, The Grand Budapest Hotel
OUT: Gone Girl, Unbroken, Whiplash
BEST DIRECTOR
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ana DuVernay, Selma
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
IN: Anderson
OUT: David Fincher, Gone Girl
BEST ACTOR
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
NO CHANGES
BEST ACTRESS
Jennifer Aniston, Cake
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
IN: Aniston
OUT: Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
IN: Duvall
OUT: Tom Wilkinson, Selma
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
IN: Dern
OUT: Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
BLOGGER’S NOTE: It was announced yesterday that Whiplash will compete in the Adapted Screenplay instead of its previously anticipated Original Screenplay race.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
IN: Foxcatcher, Nightcrawler
OUT: Selma, Whiplash
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
IN: Inherent Vice, Whiplash
OUT: Unbroken, Wild
And that’ll do it for now! My final predictions are coming to you next week.
We have arrived at take #4 of my Oscar Predictions and these reflect my first predictions in the month of December. Much has changed since my last pre-Thanksgiving picks. Most importantly, the nominations for the SAG and Golden Globe awards have been released and they obviously show many directions in which the Academy could go. Just as importantly, Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken screened for critics. Many anticipated the picture could be a potential Oscar front runner. However, it didn’t pan out that way with its current 55% Rotten Tomatoes rating. It may struggle now to be nominated at all.
As I’ve done before, let’s breakdown the eight major categories one by one:
Best Adapted Screenplay
Gone Girl, The Imitation Game, and The Theory of Everything appear to be locks for nominations here. I will still include Unbroken, though its inclusion is less clear. The fifth slot could be anything from Still Alice to American Sniper to Into the Woods. Yet (for now) I’ll go with Wild. This latest round replaces Into the Woods with the Reese Witherspoon drama.
Predicted Nominees
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Wild
Best Original Screenplay
No changes here in a very strong category. However, the list of movies that could be spoiler nominees includes Mr. Turner, Foxcatcher, A Most Violent Year, and even The LEGO Movie.
Predicted Nominees
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Selma
Whiplash
Best Supporting Actress
Just one change here as I’m taking out Carmen Ejogo for Selma and replacing her with Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year. Other potential nominees: Laura Dern in Wild, Carrie Coon in Gone Girl, and Kristen Stewart in Still Alice.
Predicted Nominees
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Best Supporting Actor
The disappointment of the Unbroken reaction has led me to take out Miyavi for that picture and replace him with Tom Wilkinson as President Lyndon Johnson in Selma. Other potential nominees: Josh Brolin in Inherent Vice and Tim Roth in Selma. Robert Duvall has landed SAG and Globe nods, but I still can’t bring myself to include him yet.
Predicted Nominees
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Tom Wilkinson, Selma
Best Actress
This category seems to have four locks: Julianne Moore, Reese Witherspoon, Felicity Jones, and Rosamund Pike. The five spot is truly up for grabs. It could go to Hilary Swank (The Homesman), Jennifer Aniston (Cake), Emily Blunt (Into the Woods), or Shailene Woodley (The Fault in Our Stars). For now – I’m taking Blunt out and predicting the final slot goes to Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night.
Predicted Nominees
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Best Actor
In any other year – Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner), Jake Gyllenhall (Nightcrawler), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), and Oscar Isaac (A Most Violent Year) might find themselves in the mix. However, there are five other strong contenders and they’re the same that I predicted last month.
Predicted Nominees
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Best Director
I’ve had Angelina Jolie included in my previous three posts, but she’s out for the first time. I’m replacing her with David Fincher for now. Other possibilities include Damien Chazelle (Whiplash), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher), James Marsh (The Theory of Everything), and JC Chandor (A Most Violent Year), among others.
Predicted Nominees
Ana DuVernay, Selma
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Best Picture
Two changes here as Into the Woods and Interstellar are out. I’m still including Unbroken, but it may be in serious danger. The two newbies have both been predicted in previous posts but not last month: Foxcatcher and Gone Girl.
Other pictures not predicted that could find a way in: The Grand Budapest Hotel, A Most Violent Year, American Sniper, and Mr. Turner.
Predicted Nominees
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Whiplash
And that’s the latest folks! I’ll likely have a part two December predictions before the dawn of 2015. Stay tuned!
November brings us my third edition of my Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. Since October’s round of predictions, a few important things have happened. First and foremost, Ana DuVernay’s Martin Luther King Civil Rights pic Selma has screened for critics and vaulted itself into a major contender… and not just for nominations. Disney’s Into the Woods screened just last night and it too has entered the fray. The only film left unseen is Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken, but it remains a potential force to be reckoned with.
Let’s go through the categories one by one and I’ll point out what changes have transpired in the last few weeks!
Best Adapted Screenplay
Only one change here as I’ve taken out American Sniper and subbed in Into the Woods. The other four nominees seem like sure things for the most part. If Woods or Sniper don’t get in, Inherent Vice, Still Alice, or Wild are other possibles.
Predicted Nominees
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Into the Woods
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Best Original Screenplay
I had Interstellar in a month ago, but this seems unlikely after the main complaints of critics was the script. Foxcatcher is out as well as it seems to be losing momentum in the Academy derby. I’ve put it Selma and Whiplash in their place. I’m still keeping in The Grand Budapest Hotel, though many prognosticators have it out of competition. A Most Violent Year and Mr. Turner could get in, too.
Predicted Nominees
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Selma
Whiplash
Best Supporting Actress
We have a couple changes here as Meryl Streep (Into the Woods) and Carmen Ejogo (Selma) join the mix, supplanting Laura Dern (Wild) and Kristen Stewart (Still Alice). Other possibles include Carrie Coon (Gone Girl) and Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year).
Predicted Nominees
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Carmen Ejogo, Selma
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Best Supporting Actor
We’ll make this simple – this is the one race where nothing has changed prediction wise! If any of my predictions falter – keep an eye out for Tom Wilkinson and Tim Roth (both for Selma), Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice), or Robert Duvall (The Judge).
Predicted Nominees
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Miyavi, Unbroken
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Best Actress
Just one alteration here as I’ve taken out Amy Adams for Big Eyes and substituted Emily Blunt for Into the Woods. Others with surprise nomination shots are Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night), Hilary Swank (The Homesman), and Jennifer Aniston (Cake).
Predicted Nominees
Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Best Actor
The most competitive category of all appears to have four shoo-ins now: Benedict Cumberbatch, Michael Keaton, David Oyelowo, and Eddie Redmayne. This is actually the first time I’ve included Oyelowo after Selma screened, so I’ve removed Jack O’Connell in Unbroken. The fifth slot is tough – it could be O’Connell, Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner), Oscar Isaac (A Most Violent Year), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), or even Jake Gyllenhall (Nightcrawler) or Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel). For now, though, I’m sticking with Steve Carell in Foxcatcher, despite its downgrading among many for possible nominations.
Predicted Nominees
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Best Director
Last month, I included high profile auteurs David Fincher (Gone Girl) and Christopher Nolan (Interstellar). They’re out and Ana DuVernay (Selma) and Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game) are in. Oscar could make some history if DuVernay makes it in. She’d be the first African American woman to be recognized in this category. Additionally, my current estimates that include her and Angelina Jolie would mark the first time two women are up for the award.
Predicted Nominees
Ana DuVernay, Selma
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Angelina Jolie, Unbroken
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Best Picture
I’m still sticking with nine predicted nominees yet a third of them have changed. Gone are Gone Girl, Foxcatcher, and American Sniper. They all have decent shots still, along with A Most Violent Year, Mr. Turner, and The Grand Budapest Hotel. Joining the mix are Selma (a no brainer now) and less sure things Into the Woods and Whiplash. I’m still including Interstellar, though that’s an iffy proposition.
Predicted Nominees
Birdman
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Whiplash
We’ll have a fourth round of December predictions soon enough, friends! Until then…
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