November 21-23 Box Office Predictions

Wicked: For Good sweeps in to rule the box office and it could compete for 2025’s biggest domestic opening. We also have Finnish action sequel Sisu: Road to Revenge and Japan set dramedy Rental Family making their debuts and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

The second part of Wicked is expected to easily swoosh past the $112 million opening of part 1 last year. The real question is whether it eclipses the $162 million start of A Minecraft Movie which currently holds the record for the year. I have falling just behind.

Sisu: Road to Revenge should manage to top the $3.3 million out of the gate that its predecessor achieved in 2023, but perhaps not by much. My mid single digits projection puts it in fifth.

Rental Family with Oscar winner Brendan Fraser hasn’t been able to generate much buzz despite mostly solid reviews. I have it struggling in sixth place.

Holdovers should populate slots 2-4. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t scored a surprise #1 showing (more on that below). If it drops in range with Now You See Me 2 from nine years ago, it could fall below $10 million for the runner-up spot. The second weekend of The Running Man and third frame of Predator: Badlands could see similar numbers battling for third.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Wicked: For Good

Predicted Gross: $158.1 million

2. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

3. The Running Man

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

4. Predator: Badlands

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

5. Sisu: Road to Revenge

Predicted Gross: $4 million

6. Rental Family

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

Box Office Results (November 14-16)

As mentioned, threequel Now You See Me: Now You Don’t easily ruled the charts with a better than anticipated $21 million compared to my $17.1 million prediction. While it’s the lowest opening of the franchise (falling under the original’s $29 million and part two’s $22 million), the #1 posting was an unexpected development.

That’s because many prognosticators, including me, figured The Running Man with Glen Powell might manage bragging rights. Yet the sci-fi remake took in only $16.4 million for second, under my $19.6 million estimate.

Another projection I missed is that I thought Predator: Badlands wouldn’t experience the hefty sophomore decline of other pics in the franchise. However, it plummeted 68% to $12.7 million. I was far more generous at $18.2 million. The two-week tally is still an impressive $66 million.

Regretting You was fourth with $3.7 million and I was higher at $5 million. The four-week take is $44 million.

Black Phone 2 rounded out the top five and I incorrectly didn’t have it there. In its fifth week, it earned $2.6 million to bring its total to $74 million.

Keeper from Osgood Perkins was right behind in sixth with $2.5 million (I said $3.2 million). The horror flick couldn’t attract its intended audience.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Life of Chuck Review

In Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck, I found myself more emotionally invested in the concept than the characters. That doesn’t appear to be an accident as we ponder the big themes and equally sized swings taken by the adaptation of Stephen King’s novella. We’re meant to see ourselves in the experiences of the title character during his 39 years and they are great years as we’re told and occasionally shown. There are moments scattered throughout where the heart tugging feels effortless and others where the cosmic machinations emanating from its screenplay feels… something else. Not necessarily forced, but slightly underwhelming in its impact because of our limited time with Tom Hiddleston’s Chuck in his adult years. Ultimately I valued seeing highlights and lowlights of his journey.

The film is told in reverse chronology. It should be noted that a spoiler free review is challenging, but I’ll try my best. Chuck opens in act three of three with middle school teacher Marty (Chiwetel Ejiofor) presiding over a dwindling class size as natural disasters and other happenings are putting the planet on course for a seemingly slow death. His parent-teacher conferences are both sad and humorous and it affords David Dastmalchian with an amusing cameo. Sad and humorous are a fair description for this first/third act as Marty attempts to reconnect with his ex-wife, nurse Felicia (Karen Gillan). Much of the comedy comes from the bizarre sightings of Chuck Krantz (Tom Hiddleston). As the Earth crumbles, the bespectacled accountant appears to be the only constant. He pops up in TV ads and park benches and billboards thanking him for “39 Great Years!” No one seems to recall where they know him from or if they do and no one can explain his sudden omnipresence.

It’s in act two and when we meet the numbers cruncher in the flesh as Hiddleston and then younger versions played by Benjamin Pajak as a preteen and Jacob Tremblay as a near adult. This isn’t really a spoiler as we’re told by the Narrator (a delightfully droll Nick Offerman) that Chuck’s 39 years do not extend to 40. The third act explores an often tragic upbringing raised by Grandpa, or zayde, Albie (Mark Hamill) and kindly Grandma/bubbe Sarah (Mia Sara). From the latter is where Chuck develops a love for many forms of dance. From the former is where he is told to avoid dancing to the beat of his own drum in favor a safer route (like an accounting career). It’s in the middle sequence where grownup Chuck grooves to the rhythm of someone else’s drum and that easily gives us the picture’s strongest moments of pure joy.

Chuck features plenty of recognizable faces from iconic movies. There is no star as even Hiddleston’s title character has limited screen time. Of course, his elders are Luke Skywalker and Sloane from Ferris Bueller’s Day Off. Both shine as shapers of Chuck’s near four decades. Matthew Lillard and Carl Lumbly pop up as armageddon approaches in the first third while Heather Langenkamp (Nancy from A Nightmare on Elm Street) dispatches advice to young Chuck in the the last.

Once the overall concept is unlocked, it flirts with and sometimes falls victim to becoming anticlimactic. Chuck’s world may not provide a great near two hour viewing recounting his near 40. However, it still manages to pack enough pleasures and pathos that it feels consequential.

*** (out of four)

Paddington in Peru Box Office Prediction

After a seven year absence from the big screen, Sony hopes families are itching to watch Paddington in Peru over the Valentine’s/Presidents’ Day long weekend. The third feature in the franchise mixing live action/animation has Dougal Wilson taking over directorial duties from Paul King. Based on Michael Bond’s children’s books, Ben Whishaw returns to voice the titular bear. Other cast members include Hugh Bonneville, Emily Mortimer (replacing Sally Hawkins), Madeleine Harris, Samuel Joslin, Julie Walters, Jim Broadbent, Olivia Colman, Antonio Banderas, Imelda Staunton, Carla Tous, and Hayley Atwell.

Just over a decade ago, Paddington kicked off to $18.9 million from Friday to Sunday and $25.4 million over the extended MLK frame of 2015. Three years later, Paddington 2 started on the same holiday weekend to lesser results ($11 million for the three-day and $15 million when counting Monday). That’s despite fantastic reviews for the sequel as it notably sports a 99% RT rating.

Critical reaction for Peru is at 93% on that site though most notices say it falls short of its predecessors. In the United Kingdom, it achieved the best debut of the trilogy. The lengthy wait between features could prevent that from happening stateside though it is certainly achievable. I do think it will manage to outpace the second tale.

Paddington in Peru opening weekend prediction: $14.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $17 million (Friday to Monday)

For my Captain America: Brave New World prediction, click here:

November 29-December 1 Box Office Predictions

Disney seeks to break its own all-time biggest Thanksgiving weekend record when Moana 2 sails into multiplexes this Wednesday. It’s the sole wide release over the holiday and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

It could be close, but I’m projecting the sequel to 2016’s animated tale will exceed Frozen II‘s current largest three-day and five-day ($85.9 million and $125 million) takes over the Turkey Day frame. The follow-up should easily top the Thanksgiving Friday to Sunday mark for a new picture which is currently held by… Moana at $56 million.

Leftovers will populate the rest of the top 5 with Wicked posting a second place showing after its third best premiere of 2024 (more on that below). With an A Cinemascore grade, the decline may only be in the mid 30s or so.

Gladiator II will drop a notch to third after a start on the lower end of its anticipated range. Ridley Scott’s long-in-the-works sequel could lose close to half its debut audience.

Red One and Venom: The Last Dance should fill out the rest of the high five and here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Moana 2

Predicted Gross: $92.1 million (Friday to Sunday); $130.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Wicked

Predicted Gross: $71.6 million

3. Gladiator II

Predicted Gross: $27.5 million

4. Red One

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

5. Venom: The Last Dance

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

Box Office Results (November 22-24)

Two things can be true as “Glicked” (Wicked and Gladiator II releasing on the same day) gave a needed jolt to the box office while each came in at the lower end of most projections. The critically acclaimed Wicked, based on the hugely popular play, made off with $112.5 million. As mentioned, it’s the third best haul in 2024 behind Deadpool & Wolverine and Inside Out 2. Yet it didn’t match my $134.6 million forecast. With magical word-of-mouth, this seems destined to perform well throughout the season.

Gladiator II was runner-up with $55 million and that didn’t measure up to my $69.8 million call. The so-so Cinemascore grade could mean its weekend to weekend declines could be heftier than I might’ve originally projected.

Red One slid to third at $13.2 million compared to my $14.9 million prediction. The holiday action comedy has taken in $52 million in two weeks which isn’t overly impressive considering the reported $250 million price tag.

Newcomer Bonhoeffer from Angel Studios was the only newcomer of the trio that opened above my expectations with $5 million. I said $4 million.

Venom: The Last Dance rounded out the top five with $3.8 million (I said $3.6 million) for $133 million in five weeks.

The Best Christmas Pageant Ever was sixth with $3.4 million, ahead of my $2.7 million projection for $25 million in three weeks. Behind it in seventh was Heretic with $2.2 million (I went with $2.5 million) for $24 million in three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Terrifier 3 Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (10/09): Based on its reported screen count of 2500 and rising buzz, I am upping my prediction from $9.4 million to $14.4 million. That gives it the #1 slot.

A handful of new releases are out in cinemas October 11th and there’s a possibility that micro-budgeted slasher Terrifier 3 tops them all. From writer/director Damien Leone, Art the Clown’s latest hardcore horror flick looks to build upon the success of its 2022 predecessor. David Howard Thornton, Lauren LaVera, Elliot Fullam, Samantha Scaffidi, Chris Jericho, Daniel Roebuck, Tom Savini, and Jason Patric are among the cast members.

Shot for a reported $2 million, it sports an 86% RT rating with 68 on Metacritic. 2016’s Terrifier was a DVD premiere that managed to gain a cult following. Six years later, the sequel became an unexpected hit in multiplexes. Made for just $250k, it took in nearly $11 million.

The third edition, with has seen overseas reports of walkouts due to its gruesomeness, could flirt with double digits out of the gate. I haven’t seen a theater count (and I’ll update this number based on that if warranted), but I’ve got achieving the best start of the newbies ahead of Saturday Night, My Hero Academia: You’re Next, Piece by Piece, and The Apprentice.

Terrifier 3 opening weekend prediction: $14.4 million

For my Saturday Night prediction, click here:

For my My Hero Academia: You’re Next prediction, click here:

For my Piece by Piece prediction, click here:

For my The Apprentice prediction, click here:

The Lone Ranger Movie Review

As 2013 comes to a close, there is little doubt that Gore Verbinski’s The Lone Ranger will be considered the biggest flop of the year. Stories abounded about production delays and problems. Journalists had a field day writing about its bloated budget (said to be at least $250 million) and the end of the box office dominance of star Johnny Depp. The pic’s failure to meet financial expectations is undeniable as it managed only $89 million domestically. For the majority of people who even casually follow the film biz, you’ve probably read nothing positive about The Lone Ranger.

Now that I’ve seen it, I will happily report that there are some positive things to say about this movie. Of course, it’s not all positive. Far from it. Based on an iconic 1930s radio show that later turned into TV series and films, the 2013 version is given the Gore Verbinski/producer Jerry Bruckheimer treatment. In other words, it’s given the Pirates of the Caribbean treatment.

And that means Johnny Depp as Tonto, the sidekick of John Reid aka The Lone Ranger (Armie Hammer). The Western is mostly set in 1869 (it’s told in flashback by Tonto when he’s a very old man) and Reid is a dignified attorney turned masked vigilante after his brother and his team of Texas Rangers are gunned down. The culprits are led by outlaw Butch Cavendish (William Fichtner). Comanche Indian Tonto has his own reasons to help his Ranger partner as seeks to bring justice to those responsible for killing his tribe when he was a child.

Along the way, we get a fairly generous helping of high-octane action sequences and a lot of humorous banter between the two leads. So does it work? Sometimes it does. Sometimes it doesn’t. And a lot of The Lone Ranger‘s effectiveness lies with its performers. Critics and journalists seemed to have their knives sharpened for Depp by the time this premiered. In some respects, I can understand why. It was ten years ago that Mr. Depp became a box office sensation with Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl. What set that pic apart for Depp (after a film career that was already terrific though lacking in hits) was the thrill of seeing a truly great actor bring his glorious quirkiness into a blockbuster setting. Now it’s unfortunately begin to feel a bit old hat. It hasn’t helped that the pictures he’s chosen simply aren’t on the original Pirates popcorn level. This holds true for Depp as Quirky Mad Hatter in Alice in Wonderland, Quirky Vampire in Dark Shadows, Quirky Captain Sparrow in the subpar Pirates sequels, and yes, as Quirky Tonto. Almost as if to accentuate my point, there’s even one moment in this film when Depp literally kicks a dead horse.

That said, Depp’s Tonto has his share of chemistry with Hammer’s Lone Ranger. Mr. Hammer became known to filmgoers in not one, but two roles in David Fincher’s The Social Network. There are moments here when his comedic timing is off, but he mostly pulls off a rather unchallenging role.

As the villain, Fichtner doesn’t have much to do except look dirty. Indeed his creepiest role shall remain the police officer/Amway-type distributor in Doug Liman’s Go. Alas Fichtner turns out to not be the film’s only baddie. That reveal is meant to come as a surprise, but you’ll likely see it coming from a mile away. When an Oscar-nominated actor is cast in a part that seems pointless for two-thirds of the running time, he’s probably gonna turn out bad. If you’re interested in finding out who that talented actor is, I’ll let you look it up. Other familiar faces in The Lone Ranger include Helena Bonham-Carter in a glorified cameo as a brothel owner, James Badge Dale as the slain brother ranger, and Ruth Wilson as his widow who may have married the wrong brother.

Director Verbinski helmed the first three Pirates features and a complaint with them is a complaint here: the movie seems bloated and its 150 minute runtime often seems unnecessary. Depp has his moments. Even though we’ve seen this bag of tricks from him before, there’s no doubt Depp has impeccable timing when it comes to comedy and there are ample opportunities for him to display it.

Ultimately, The Lone Ranger mostly plods amiably for about two hours with some decent action and passable chemistry between its leads. However, it also features major shifts in tone that range from slapstick to more serious business when it comes to the relationships between settlers and Native Americans. Due to that, Ranger frequently feels like a different movie from scene to scene. For all those reasons, the picture often feels like a misfire, albeit an often entertaining one.

And then we get the climactic train sequence. Or, better yet, trains (plural) sequence as our main characters jump from rapidly moving locomotive to another to try and save the day. We as an audience are programmed to expect an impressive all-out action/adventure fest in the final moments of something like this. And I’ll be damned if this one isn’t really impressive. And I’m talking impressive in a way that makes the first two hours seem worth sitting through – flaws and all.

That said, I can’t ignore that most of The Lone Ranger doesn’t work very well. It’s not anywhere near as bad as its reputation though.

**1/2 (out of four)

Pacific Rim Movie Review

Pacific Rim is visionary director Guillermo del Toro’s love letter to giant monster movies of old but updated with 21st century effects that the makers of Godzilla in 1954 couldn’t even fathom. Here moviegoers are introduced to the terms “Kaiju” and “Jaegers” (not the shot you’ll surely regret the next morning). You see, Kaijus (strange creature in Japanese) are giant alien monsters that attack Earth from below ocean level. Jaegers are giant frickin robots that are commanded by two human pilots inside the machine. The pilots, in order to combat the strength of the Kaijus, do some sort of mind meld trick together where they can read each other’s thoughts and memories in order to create a stronger connection. Or something like that.

The heroes of the pic have a little history with those nasty Kaijus. Pilot Raleigh Becket (Charlie Hunnam) lost his copilot and brother (played by Mike from TV’s “Homeland”) when they battled one and Mako Mori (Rinko Kikuchi) lost her whole family in an attack when she was a child. It is Raleigh and Mako who must become copilots in order to thwart Kaiju mayhem in Hong Kong. Their commanding officer is played by Idris Elba in the picture’s strongest performance.

There’s some colorful supporting characters in the mix. Charlie Day of “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia” and Horrible Bosses is a quirky research scientist tasked with finding new ways to defeat the monsters. Ron Perlman (who’s collaborated with del Toro on the Hellboy flicks) deals black market Kaiju organs for profit. And there’s a run-of-the-mill subplot about another Jaeger (Robert Kazinsky) who doesn’t trust Raleigh and yadda yadda yadda.

Let’s be clear: when hearing that del Toro was making a giant monster movie, you figured this would be a visual treat. And there are certainly many moments where that’s exactly what we get. Apparently the director decided that whenever a Kaiju does attack, the weather forecast must call for precipitation. Seriously. I don’t think there’s one action scene that doesn’t feature a torrential downpour. These action spectacles feature cool moments like a Jaeger literally hitting a Kaiju with an enormous ship. Both Jaegers and Kaijus are so massive that they pretty much take a building down with each movement they make. While the fight scenes can have a sameness feel to them (with the nighttime rainstorm theme running constantly), there are certainly plenty of moments of visual awe. This is the level where Pacific Rim occasionally works well. If del Toro was attempting to get you emotionally invested in the characters (and it seems like he often is), it doesn’t quite succeed. The lead characters of Raleigh and Mako are rather blandly written. Day and Perlman have fun with their characters, but the roles aren’t particularly memorable.

Pacific Rim is about spectacle and a filmmaker paying homage to the films he loved as a child. It’s worth mentioning that the movies del Toro is celebrating usually were about 90 minutes long and not the bloated 132 minute run time here. We’ve seen del Toro create imaginary worlds of eye popping splendor before in Pan’s Labyrinth and the Hellboy pics. They were more satisfying and original experiences than what we have here. There is, however, just enough cool effects here to warrant a recommendation – albeit a regretfully muted one.

*** (out of four)