Tag: Regina Hall

98th Academy Awards Predictions: December 17th Edition

This week’s biggest announcement about the Oscars in general is that the telecast is moving to YouTube in 2029. The most notable development for the 98th ceremony was the release of the shortlists. There are several categories slimmed down from anywhere to 10-20 possibilities – International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, the new Casting race, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, Sound, and Visual Effects.

We have winners and losers to discuss from those contenders. The Testament of Ann Lee was blanked and it was expected to show up in competitions like Cinematography and the musical fields. Jay Kelly underperformed. It made the list of 20 Score hopefuls, but it didn’t get into Casting (where I’ve had it predicted for a nomination). The Lee and Kelly struggles are enough for me to drop Amanda Seyfried (Lee) from my Actress five and Adam Sandler (Kelly) from my Supporting Actor quintet. Both could still make it, but I’m more skeptical. The beneficiaries are Emma Stone (Bugonia) and Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) as they return to their lineups. I am now also giving the 2nd Netflix BP slot to Train Dreams instead of Kelly. In Best Actor, however, I’m dropping Joel Edgerton in Train Dreams from my five in favor of Michael B. Jordan in Sinners.

On the other hand, Wicked: For Good landed 8 shortlist mentions (tying with Sinners). Does that help its chances for a BP nom where I dropped it out of my 10 six days ago? That’s arguable. I’d certainly say it doesn’t hurt and I toyed with putting it back in. As you’ll see, it’s almost there in 11th.

It was also a banner day for Sirât, the Spanish drama that landed a surprise 5 shortlist mentions. I’m not projecting it though the idea of the film getting a BP nod is not out of the question.

The other news earlier this week was the review embargo lifting for Avatar: Fire and Ash. For the most part, it is being called the weakest of the trilogy. I’d say its fortunes took a tumble in BP though it’s still in the conversation.

Let’s take a look at all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Train Dreams (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

14. No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)

15. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (E)

5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Clint Bentley, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

8. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Adam Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)

9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)

10. Josh O’Connor, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)

3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Blue Moon (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (-1)

9. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Weapons (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nuremberg (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Hedda (PR: 8) (-2)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sirât (PR: 5) (+1)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)

8. Belén (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. In Your Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

7. A Magnificent Life (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Endless Cookie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Scarlet (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Boys Go to Jupiter

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (E)

5. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Alabama Solution (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Seeds (PR: 8) (E)

9. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk

Orwell 2 + 2 = 5

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Blue Moon

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. F1 (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Bugonia (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hedda (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Snow White

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-2)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

10. No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kokuho (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Nuremberg (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Alto Knights (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Ugly Stepsister (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

28 Years Later

Weapons

Wolf Man

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (E)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sirât (PR: 9) (+3)

7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Golden” from Kpop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 8) (+1)

8. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Drive” from F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. F1 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (E)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Superman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Warfare

The Testament of Ann Lee

Marty Supreme

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. F1 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tron: Ares (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Jurassic World: Rebirth (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Electric State (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Mickey 17

How to Train Your Dragon

And that leaves these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Sinners

10 Nominations

Hamnet

9 Nominations

Frankenstein, Sentimental Value

8 Nominations

Marty Supreme

6 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

4 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent

3 Nominations

Bugonia, F1, Train Dreams

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Come See Me in the Good Light, KPop Demon Hunters

1 Nomination

Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Superman, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Weapons, Zootopia 2

The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants Box Office Prediction

It has been a decade since a SpongeBob movie was properly located in theaters, but that changes December 19th with The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants. Derek Drymon, a veteran of the Nickelodeon show, handles directorial duties. Voiceover artists from the quarter century plus running series include Tom Kenny, Clancy Brown, and Rodger Bumpass. Some familiar faces behind the mic are George Lopez, Ice Spice, Arturo Castro, Sherry Cola, Regina Hall, and Mark Hamill.

Back in 2004, SpongeBob SquarePants: The Movie opened to $32 million on its way to an $85 million domestic gross. In 2015, sequel Sponge Out of Water improved on those figures with $55 million out of the gate and $162 million overall stateside. In August of 2020, Sponge on the Run didn’t have a proper theatrical output due to the COVID pandemic.

Search is not expected to come close to what the first two franchise entries accomplished. There will be competition for families from the biblical animated tale David as well as Avatar: Fire and Ash. While some forecasts have this achieving mid 20s, I think mid to possibly late teens is a likelier scenario.

The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants opening weekend prediction: $17.1 million

For my Avatar: Fire and Ash prediction, click here:

Avatar: Fire and Ash Box Office Prediction

For my David prediction, click here:

David Box Office Prediction

For my The Housemaid prediction, click here:

The Housemaid Box Office Prediction

98th Academy Awards Predictions: December 11th Edition

There’s been a whole lotta precursor developments since my last Oscar predictions update on November 23rd. Critics groups are weighing in with their best-of choices, the review embargo for Marty Supreme lifted while the social embargo lapsed for the upcoming Avatar: Fire and Ash. Most importantly, the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe voters revealed their nominees along with the National Board of Review (NBR) and American Film Institute (AFI).

One thing seems certain in that One Battle After Another is the easy frontrunner for Best Picture. Is it a guaranteed victory? No, but it would have to encounter some bumps in the road for the narrative to change. That’s yet to happen.

At this juncture, I also think Frankenstein, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners are safe choices for BP inclusion. That leaves several pics vying for three slots. Will either of the big-budget sequels (Avatar: Fire and Ash, Wicked: For Good) make it? Can Jay Kelly recover after a noticeable Globes omission or is Train Dreams the other Netflix nominee along with Frankenstein? Will The Secret Agent make it three international contenders in the ten? Or could No Other Choice make it four? Or do Bugonia (which has been doing well in precursors) or The Testament of Ann Lee (which has been struggling in precursors) make the cut?

My mid-December snapshot of prognostication answers those questions… for now. The Secret Agent and Bugonia are now in my top 10 with the mega-sequels Wicked and Avatar falling out. I, perhaps stubbornly, am sticking with Jay Kelly in the lineup. I came very close to replacing it with Train Dreams.

In Best Actress, Cynthia Erivo’s work in Wicked drops in favor of Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You). In Actor, Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams) rises with George Clooney as Jay Kelly falling out of the contending quintet (even with the latter’s movie clinging to a BP nom). In Supporting Actor, Benicio del Toro jumps from 6th to 2nd and over his Battle costar Sean Penn. I still have both getting in with Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) now on the outside looking in. Director and Supporting Actress remain the same with some movement in the rankings.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Bugonia (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Train Dreams (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (-3)

14. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+1)

15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out

Clint Bentley, Train Dreams

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (E)

7. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)

9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)

3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sorry, Baby (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Is This Thing On?

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

8. Hedda (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nuremberg (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 8) (-2)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sirât (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Belén (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Love That Remains

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. In Your Dreams (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Scarlet (PR: 6) (-1)

8. A Magnificent Life (PR: 8) (E)

9. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Boys Go to Jupiter (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Lost in Starlight

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cover-Up (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Seeds (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Alabama Solution (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Orwell 2 +2 = 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Deaf President Now!

Cutting Through Rocks

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (E)

10. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rental Family

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+2)

9. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Snow White (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. F1 (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)

9. No Other Choice (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wicked: For Good

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Weapons (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Wolf Man (PR: 6) (-2)

9. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)

7. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Sentimental Value

Wicked: For Good

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

7. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Bugonia

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. F1 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 2) (-1)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Warfare (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Marty Supreme (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)

3. F1 (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mickey 17 (PR: 8) (E)

9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Tron: Ares (PR: 9) (-1)

And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

13 Nominations

One Battle After Another

12 Nominations

Sinners

10 Nominations

Hamnet

9 Nominations

Marty Supreme

8 Nominations

Frankenstein

7 Nominations

Sentimental Value

6 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

4 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident, Jay Kelly

3 Nominations

Bugonia, F1, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, KPop Demon Hunters, The Testament of Ann Lee

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Weapons, Zootopia 2

31st Critics’ Choice Awards Nomination Predictions

Nominations for the 31st Critics’ Choice Awards will be unveiled tomorrow morning before its telecast on January 4th. With Chelsea Handler returning to host, it is one of the higher profile Oscar precursors. This awards branch is traditionally hesitant to honor international titles though titles No Other Choice and The Secret Agent popped up on their shortlists for consideration and recent pics like Roma, Parasite, and RRR made the cut. Speaking of, this is the first year where CCA unveiled shortlists for a number of below the line races.

Like the Oscars, there are 10 nominees for Best Picture. Last year, 9 out of 10 CCA nominees got a BP nod from the Academy. It was 8 the previous two years so this is a decent barometer for what’s to come. Unlike the Oscars, there were 8 nominated Directors (at least there was last year), but apparently only six this time around and 6 hopefuls in other categories.

Here are my predictions with an alternate for each competition:

Best Picture

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Train Dreams

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – Bugonia

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident

Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

Alternate – Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Emma Stone, Bugonia

Alternate – Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Alternate – George Clooney, Jay Kelly

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan, Weapons

Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Alternate – Regina Hall, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another

Delroy Lindo, Sinners

Paul Mescal, Hamnet

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Alternate – Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Best Original Screenplay

It Was Just an Accident

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Weapons

Alternate – The Secret Agent

Best Adapted Screenplay

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

No Other Choice

One Battle After Another

Train Dreams

Alternate – Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Comedy

Bugonia

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

The Phoenician Scheme

Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Alternate – The Naked Gun

Best Ensemble

Hamnet

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – A House of Dynamite

Best Foreign Language Film

It Was Just an Accident

No Other Choice

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sirât

The Voice of Hind Rajab

Alternate – Left-Handed Girl

Best Animated Film

Arco

KPop Demon Hunters

Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

Ne Zha 2

Scarlet

Zootopia 2

Alternate – Elio

Best Cinematography

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Train Dreams

Alternate – Jay Kelly

Best Costume Design

Frankenstein

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – Hamnet

Best Editing

A House of Dynamite

F1

Marty Supreme

No Other Choice

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Alternate – Hamnet

Best Hair and Makeup

28 Years Later

Frankenstein

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Weapons

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Production Design

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – Hedda

Best Original Score

A House of Dynamite

Bugonia

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Alternate – Frankenstein

Best Original Song

“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless

“The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good

“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters

“Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest

“I Lied to You” from Sinners

“Train Dreams” from Train Dreams

Alternate – “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners

Best Sound

Avatar: Fire and Ash

F1

Frankenstein

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – Warfare

Best Stunt Ensemble

Ballerina

F1

Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – Superman

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash

The Fantastic Four: First Steps

F1

Frankenstein

Superman

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – Mickey 17

Best Young Actor/Actress

Everett Blunck, The Plague

Miles Caton, Sinners

Cary Christopher, Weapons

Aidan Delbis, Bugonia

Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Jacobi Jupe, Hamnet

Alternate – Alfie Williams, 28 Years Later

That means I am predicting the following number of nominations for these films:

17 Nominations

Sinners

16 Nominations

One Battle After Another

11 Nominations

Marty Supreme, Wicked: For Good

10 Nominations

Hamnet

9 Nominations

Frankenstein

8 Nominations

Sentimental Value

5 Nominations

Bugonia, Jay Kelly, Train Dreams

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Weapons

3 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice

2 Nominations

A House of Dynamite, KPop Demon Hunters, The Secret Agent

1 Nomination

28 Years Later, Arco, Ballerina, Blue Moon, Diane Warren: Relentless, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Highest 2 Lowest, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Ne Zha 2, The Phoenician Scheme, The Plague, Scarlet, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2

98th Academy Awards Predictions: November 23rd Edition

The five Best Picture winners from this decade have all seen at least one of their cast members win an acting Oscar: Frances McDormand was Best Actress for 2020’s Nomadland, Troy Kotsur took Supporting Actor for 2021’s CODA, 2022’s Everything Everywhere All at Once boasted victories in Actress (Michelle Yeoh), Supporting Actress (Jamie Lee Curtis), and Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan), Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr. were the lead and supporting actor winners for Oppenheimer in 2023, and Mikey Madison was last year’s Actress recipient for Anora.

That’s why it felt strange not having any of the thespians from One Battle for Another listed at #1 in my possibilities. I’ve had the acclaimed Paul Thomas Anderson effort on top of my Best Picture projections for several weeks. Yet I’ve had Leonardo DiCaprio (Best Actor), Sean Penn (Supporting Actor), and Teyana Taylor (Supporting Actress) each listed 2nd behind my current frontrunners in those races.

Excellent arguments can be made for all three to be 1st in their fields. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see at least two Battle ensemble members take gold. Today I am elevating one of them to the top position and that’s Teyana Taylor. She takes the spot with Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) slipping to second. Frankly, this is less about Taylor and more about Wicked‘s so-so critical reaction when the embargo lifted on Monday.

I still have Wicked clinging to a BP nom and Cynthia Erivo managing an Actress nod – though I am less convinced that either will happen. You will see dips in other categories below and it appears unlikely to match the 10 nominations that its predecessor achieved. To be clear, Grande is still a threat to win. She was probably runner-up to Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) last time and there could be enough goodwill for the Good Witch to prevail.

In other developments, I am putting two performers in the supporting fields in for the first time! Amy Madigan’s costume inspiring Weapons work makes the quintet in Supporting Actress. This is partly due to confusion as to which Marty Supreme costar (Gwyneth Paltrow or Odessa A’Zion) is more viable. I basically have them canceling each other out to Madigan’s benefit.

Jacob Elordi’s monstrous performance in Frankenstein is also elevated with Battle‘s Benicio del Toro now on the outside looking in. I nearly dropped Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) but I hesitate to drop him with his costar George Clooney still in my Actor five.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Bugonia (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (E)

13. Train Dreams (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+1)

15. No Other Choice (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Clint Bentley, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (E)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (E)

7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 9) (E)

10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)

9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)

4. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)

7. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Is This Thing On? (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (+1)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Nuremberg (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wicked: For Good

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Sirât (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sound of Falling (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Love That Remains (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Scarlet (PR: 6) (E)

7. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)

8. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Boys Go to Jupiter (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Lost in Starlight (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ne Zha 2

Animal Farm

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cover-Up (PR: 3) (E)

4. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Seeds (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Dead President Now! (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Tale of Silyan

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Hamnet (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (E)

10. Rental Family (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

F1

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)

9. Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Snow White (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. F1 (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)

10. No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wolf Man (PR: 7) (+1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (E)

10. Weapons (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-2)

8. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (-1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Phoenician Scheme

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (+1)

3. F1 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Warfare (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mickey 17 (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (E)

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Sinners

11 Nominations

Hamnet

8 Nominations

Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Wicked: For Good

7 Nominations

Frankenstein

6 Nominations

Jay Kelly

4 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident

3 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash

2 Nominations

F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, The Testament of Ann Lee, Train Dreams

1 Nomination

28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Bugonia, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Left-Handed Girl, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Weapons, Zootopia 2

98th Academy Awards Predictions: November 16th Edition

My first update in two weeks showcases stability in the major races as there’s no changes in Picture, Director, or the four acting races. However, within the categories, there is movement worth noting. Frankenstein is now up to 7th and, for the first time, I would be surprised if it’s not nominated.

The only significant movie not yet seen is Avatar: Fire and Ash. As we await screening word-of-mouth, I still have it in the BP ten at ninth. If it does not end up making the cut (unlike its two predecessors), keep an eye on The Secret Agent. I have it rising to its highest perch in 12th with lead Wagner Moura now third for Best Actor.

On the eve of its Friday premiere, Wicked: For Good slips from 6th to 8th in BP while Ariana Grande continues to top the Supporting Actress rankings. The actual review embargo lifts tomorrow and that could shift Wicked‘s placement in numerous competitions.

You can read all the movement below, including my projection that Netflix’s Train Dreams is on track for an Adapted Screenplay nod (taking out Netflix’s Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery).

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Bugonia (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Secret Agent (PR: 14) (+2)

13. No Other Choice (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A House of Dynamite

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (E)

8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Secret Agent (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Blue Moon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)

9. Is This Thing On? (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A House of Dynamite

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Life of Chuck

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sirât (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Love That Remains (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Scarlet (PR: 7) (+1)

7. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (-1)

8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 9) (E)

10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cover-Up (PR: 3) (E)

4. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Alabama Solution (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Seeds (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Tale of Silyan (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Deaf President Now! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cutting Through Rocks

The Eyes of Ghana

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Hamnet (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A House of Dynamite

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)

9. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Hedda (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Snow White (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+3)

7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-3)

9. No Other Choice (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Wolf Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Weapons (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Bugonia (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sentimental Value

A House of Dynamite

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (+1)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)

3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-2)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 9) (+2)

8. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Blue Moon

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. F1 (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Warfare (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Marty Supreme

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Tron: Ares (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Mickey 17 (PR: 8) (-1)

10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (E)

That means I have these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

13 Nominations

One Battle After Another

12 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

10 Nominations

Hamnet

9 Nominations

Marty Supreme

7 Nominations

Sentimental Value

6 Nominations

Frankenstein, Jay Kelly

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident

2 Nominations

F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams

1 Nomination

28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Bugonia, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Zootopia 2

98th Academy Awards Predictions: November 2nd Edition

It’s been three weeks (!) since I’ve updated my Oscar predictions, but there was prognosticating activity in the meantime. I did deep dives on Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. If you missed those write-ups, you can find them here:

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Picture Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Director Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actress Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actor Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (October Edition)

Now that November is here, there are some notable shifts with Frankenstein back in the BP top 10 and Bugonia falling out. In fact, I only have Bugonia getting a solo nod in Adapted Screenplay. Amanda Seyfried returns to the Actress quintet with Emma Stone dropping.

That’s better than Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere which I have blanking on nomination morning. That means Jeremy Allen White is on the outside looking in with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) taking his spot. Jeremy Strong’s Supporting Actor work in Nowhere is nowhere in the top 5 with Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another) elevating.

Only Director and Supporting Actress stay intact in the biggies while we see shifting #1’s in Production Design, Sound, and a different selected song for Wicked: For Good in the pole position. You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Bugonia (PR: 10) (-1)

12. No Other Choice (PR: 12) (E)

13. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Secret Agent (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (+4)

5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (E)

8. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (E)

10. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)

9. Is This Thing On? (PR: 6) (-3)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Weapons

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Song Song Blue

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sirât (PR: 7) (E)

8. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Love That Remains (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Arco (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (E)

7. Scarlet (PR: 7) (E)

8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 9) (E)

10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters from Andrivka (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Cover-Up (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Seeds (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 6) (E)

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Orwell 2 + 2 = 5

The Librarians

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)

9. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Train Dreams (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)

9. Bugonia (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)

9. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Snow White (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

The Phoenician Scheme

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)

7. F1 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. No Other Choice (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sentimental Value (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A House of Dynamite

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Weapons (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Wolf Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (E)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (+4)

2. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (E)

3. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-2)

4. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 10) (+3)

8. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Sinners (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-2)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Blue Moon (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Phoenician Scheme

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Warfare (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A House of Dynamite

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Tron: Ares (PR: 6) (-3)

10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (-1)

And that leaves the following movies receiving these numbers of nominations:

13 Nominations

One Battle After Another

12 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominations

Hamnet, Wicked: For Good

9 Nominations

Marty Supreme

7 Nominations

Sentimental Value

6 Nominations

Frankenstein, Jay Kelly

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident

2 Nominations

F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent

1 Nominations

28 Years Later, 2000 Meter from Andrivka, Arco, Blue Moon, Bugonia, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zooptopia 2

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (October Edition)

Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. It began with Supporting Actor and continues today with Supporting Actress. If you missed my write-up on Supporting Actor, you can find it here:

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (October Edition)

I published my first preview of the Supporting Actress field on April 6th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:

Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt

Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King

Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Let’s dispense with a couple of those names. Angelina LookingGlass’s heralded work in The Rivals of Amziah King has not been scheduled for 2025. At this point, I’m assuming it will come out in 2026.

After the Hunt has lost its awards luster after a poor commercial and critical reaction. While her costar Julia Roberts may have a long shot chance at making the Actress cut, I don’t see the same for Edebiri.

The other three names are very much viable. Ariana Grande was nominated last year as Glinda the Good Witch and was probably runner-up to Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez). While For Good has yet to screen, it stands to reason that she could make a return to the lineup. I’ve had her ranked first the whole year and we’ll see if that remains when word-of-mouth comes in.

Teyana Taylor’s performance dominates the first third of One Battle After Another (arguably the BP frontrunner). That should be enough for her to be the most likely Supporting Actor nominee in the film and we’ll get to Regina Hall shortly.

Gwyneth Paltrow is not a guaranteed competitor like her costar Timothée Chalamet is in lead actor. However, her work in Marty Supreme is definitely viable in this unformed race. The same could be said for her costar Odessa A’Zion though I’d put Paltrow ahead.

My 10 other possibilities that I listed back in April are:

Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Laura Dern, Jay Kelly

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

America Ferrera, The Lost Bus

Regina Hall, One Battle After Another

Greta Lee, Late Fame

Nia Long, Michael

Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman

Emily Watson, Hamnet

Let’s start with Regina Hall. When it was announced that Chase Infiniti would compete in lead Actress for Battle, it opened the door for Hall. I maintain that she’s behind her costar Taylor. I currently have her on the outside looking in, but wouldn’t be surprised if she hears her name called. In the 21st century, we’ve seen double nominees in this category 10 out of 25 times. The last example was 2022 when Jamie Lee Curtis won for Everything Everywhere All at Once while her cast mate Stephanie Hsu was also up. The other times were as follows:

2000: Frances McDormand and Kate Hudson, Almost Famous

2001: Helen Mirren and Maggie Smith, Gosford Park

2002: Catherine Zeta-Jones (winner) and Queen Latifah, Chicago

2006: Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

2008: Amy Adams and Viola Davis, Doubt

2009: Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air

2010: Melissa Leo (winner) and Amy Adams, The Fighter

2011: Octavia Spencer (winner) and Jessica Chastain, The Help

2018: Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Another possibility of two nominees from the same pictures lies with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) and her costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. The former seems marginally more likely but Lilleass is absolutely a threat to make the quintet.

A third possibility of two actresses from one feature is Wunmi Mosaku and Hailee Steinfeld from Sinners. That’s a more remote possibility and the film would really have to over perform for either to get in.

Back to those 10 other possibilities. Michael was pushed to 2026 so there goes Nia Long. Laura Dern, America Ferrera, Greta Lee and Emily Watson are all long shots at best after their movies screened. For Dern and Watson, they could see some of their costars nominated.

Emily Blunt could factor in if she manages SAG or Critics Choice or a Globe nod. Yet The Smashing Machine was a major box office flop and that doesn’t help. The same logic applies to Jennifer Lopez for Kiss of the Spider Woman.

Glenn Close is arguably considered the best thespian who hasn’t won an Oscar despite eight attempts. That could help her cause in Rian Johnon’s latest murder mystery, but none of the actors from Knives Out and Glass Onion made it despite respective buzz for Ana de Armas and Janelle Monae.

One name not on my radar in April was Amy Madigan in Weapons. The summer sleeper gave the veteran actress an unforgettably creepy role that should inspire many a Halloween costume next week. I’m starting to really think she could find herself in the quintet.

So there you have it, readers! I would say Grande, Taylor, Fanning, Lilleass, Madigan, Paltrow and Hall are the seven likeliest contestants with potential surprises including Close, Lopez, Blunt and Mosaku. I will zone in on Best Actor in the next write-up!

98th Academy Awards Predictions: October 12th Edition

The New York Film Festival has wrapped up with Bradley Cooper’s Is This Thing On? debuting prior to its December release. Being that his previous two directorial efforts (A Star Is Born, Maestro) were up for BP, Thing was a curious piece to the emerging awards puzzle. The verdict? While some reviews were strong, I don’t think it’s enough to factor into the Oscar conversation with the possible exception of Original Screenplay. You won’t find Will Arnett, Laura Dern or Cooper in my acting possibilities. I do think the film could get attention at the Globes if it’s placed in Musical/Comedy.

This is the time of year where category placements are becoming clearer. Not surprisingly, Paul Mescal is confirmed as a Supporting Actor hopeful for Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet.

More surprisingly, it was revealed that Chase Infiniti will contend for lead Actress in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. I had her slotted in Supporting Actress and getting a nomination in that race last week. This upends the dynamic. I absolutely think she could get in the lead derby, but I went back and forth between her, Emma Stone (Bugonia) and Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee) with only two of them making the cut and Seyfried coming out on the short end. The Infiniti announcement also means Regina Hall could join her costar Teyana Taylor in supporting. For now I have Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass joining her Sentimental Value costar Elle Fanning in that group of five. Under a best case scenario, Battle could see six of its performers (Leonardo DiCaprio, Infiniti, Taylor, Hall, Sean Penn, Benicio del Toro) up for gold. That would set an Academy record for thespians competing. It might be a long shot, but it is a possibility.

While Another’s chances are plenty, the continued poor box office performance of The Smashing Machine (with around a 70% plummet in weekend #2) confirms my feeling that Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt’s campaigns are on life support at best. They both drop from my 10 possibilities.

Perhaps the biggest story of the week was New York’s “surprise” screening of Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme prior to its December release. Unlike Bradley Cooper’s third picture, Safdie’s inaugural behind the camera production solidified its status as a top five BP contender. Timothée Chalamet, it turns out, appears to deserve the #1 ranking I’ve had him with all along in Best Actor. Much like Battle, Supporting Actress is more confusing. While Gwyneth Paltrow and Odessa A’Zion could see their names called among the quintet (with the former seemingly more realistic), both are far from automatic. I am elevating Safdie back in the directorial five. That’s at the expense of Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value).

In Best Actor, I’m putting Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) in the high five for the first time with Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) now on the outside looking in.

And in BP, Bugonia is back in and clinging to the 10 spot with No Other Choice dropping. A note that I came very close to putting Frankenstein in.

You can read all the movement below and that includes Sean Penn rising to 1st in Supporting Actor after Stellan Skarsgård has held that position for many weeks.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (E)

10. Bugonia (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (+1)

12. No Other Choice (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (E)

14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Is This Thing On?

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Jafar Pahani, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 7) (E)

8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 8) (E)

9. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting Actress)

5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Tessa Thompson, Hedda

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (E)

10. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (E)

8. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (moved to lead Actress)

Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Akira Emoto, Rental Family

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)

5. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Is This Thing On? (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Blue Moon (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (E)

10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rental Family

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Train Dreams (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hedda

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (+1)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Sirât (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Love That Remains (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Elio (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Scarlet (PR: 6) (-1)

8. In Your Dreams (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 3) (E)

4. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Seeds (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Alabama Solution (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Librarians (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cutting Through Rocks

The Eyes of Ghana

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Rental Family

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

F1

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Snow White

Hedda

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. F1 (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Hamnet (PR: 9) (+2)

8. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (-2)

9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sentimental Value (PR: 10) (E)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wolf Man (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Weapons (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (-1)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Sentimental Value

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (E)

3. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sinners (PR: 3) (-3)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blue Moon (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (+1)

4. F1 (PR: 3) (-1)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Warfare (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (E)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tron: Ares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (E)

10. Mickey 17 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Lost Bus

And that equates to these films nabbing these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Wicked: For Good

11 Nominations

Sinners

10 Nominations

Marty Supreme

9 Nominations

Hamnet

7 Nominations

Jay Kelly, Sentimental Value

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident

3 Nominations

Bugonia

2 Nominations

F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

1 Nomination

28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2

One Battle After Another Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros hopes One Battle After Another rides a wave of critical kudos and Oscar buzz to a stellar opening on September 26th. The action comedy is the latest effort from auteur Paul Thomas Anderson with Leonardo DiCaprio headlining. Costars include Sean Penn, Benicio del Toro, Regina Hall, Teyana Taylor and Chase Infiniti.

Sporting a budget reportedly north of $130 million, reviews indicate it will be a major awards player this season. Rotten Tomatoes is at 97% with 96 on Metacritic. This has been a huge year for WB with hits including A Minecraft Movie, Sinners, Final Destination Bloodlines, F1, Superman, Weapons and The Conjuring: Last Rites. This could be another with its star power and building word-of-mouth.

That said, this should start out slower than all of the above and seek to leg out impressively over subsequent frames. Low 20s is probably the floor and I’ll say it manages close to $30 million at the outset.

One Battle After Another opening weekend prediction: $27 million

For my Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie prediction, click here:

Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie Box Office Prediction

For my The Strangers – Chapter 2 prediction, click here:

The Strangers – Chapter 2 Box Office Prediction