Black Bag Box Office Prediction

Steven Soderbergh unveils his second 2025 picture in weeks when Black Bag opens on March 14th. The spy thriller is led by Cate Blanchett and Michael Fassbender with Marisa Abela, Tom Burke, Naomie Harris, Regé-Jean Page, and Pierce Brosnan in support.

The Focus Features flick is generating impressive critical support with 96% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s some of the best recent reviews in the prolific director’s long career. Bag‘s buzz could mean this over performs. If this reaches $10 million, that would be quite an accomplishment. I don’t think it gets there, but it should certainly outpace the $3.3 million that Soderbergh’s January predecessor Presence earned out of the gate.

Black Bag opening weekend prediction: $7.3 million

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For my The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie prediction, click here:

Oscar Predictions: Black Bag

Arriving just weeks after his well-reviewed haunted house flick Presence, the prolific Steven Soderbergh helms the spy thriller Black Bag. Out March 14th, David Koepp handles screenplay duties (he also scripted Presence) with eight-time nominee and two-time Academy winner Cate Blanchett and two-time nominee Michael Fassbender starring. The supporting cast includes Marisa Abela, Tom Burke, Naomie Harris, Regé-Jean Page, and Pierce Brosnan.

Critics are digging what they’re finding in Bag. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 95% with Metacritic at 86. Blanchett, Fassbender, and Brosnan (in what’s said to be a small but memorable role) are getting kudos as are the screenplay and cinematography.

That said, Bag probably isn’t an awards play for Focus Features despite the impressive reviews thus far. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

A year ago, Everything Everywhere All at Once premiered at the South by Southwest, therefore skipping the normal autumn film festivals in favor of the Austin event. It now appears on the precipice of winning Best Picture at the Oscars. We aren’t looking at the same storyline with SXSW in 2023 with its debut picture Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves. Could it have a role at all to play in next year’s awards mix?

It might. Based on the nearly half century old tabletop game that inspired many a filmmaker and writer, Jonathan Goldstein and John Francis Daley (who made 2018’s Game Night) direct. The cast includes Chris Pine, Michelle Rodriguez, Regé-Jean Page, Justice Smith, Sophia Lillis, Chloe Coleman, and Hugh Grant. Early fest reviews are encouraging as the Rotten Tomatoes score is 100% based on the limited reaction. The critical takes indicate this will appeal to die-hards of the source material and neophytes.

I certainly don’t think we’re looking at two years in a row of the likely BP winner coming from SXSW. However, Dungeons (out stateside on March 31) is being particularly praised for its Visual Effects and Production Design. I wouldn’t completely count this out to be a contender in either category (especially the former). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…