After a 15 year hiatus from the big screen, James L. Brooks is back in the director’s chair when Ella McCay debuts December 12th. The politically themed dramedy features Emma Mackey in the title role with a supporting cast including Jamie Lee Curtis, Jack Lowden, Kumail Nanjiani, Ayo Edebiri, Julie Kavner, Rebecca Hall, Albert Brooks, and Woody Harrelson.
In the 1980s and 90s, Brooks was a cinematic force whose efforts like Terms of Endearment, Broadcast News, and As Good As It Gets were box office smashes and Best Picture nominees (or winner in the case of Terms). The 85-year-old auteur’s last production was 2010’s rom com How Do You Know. It flopped despite the star power of Reese Witherspoon, Owen Wilson, Paul Rudd, and Jack Nicholson in what appears to be his final role.
McCay doesn’t even have megawatt casting to bring in audiences. The fact that it skipped the festival circuit tells you 20th Century Studios knew this wasn’t an awards player unlike the filmmaker’s classics. This is also a genre that goes to streaming nowadays more often than not. Add all that up and this should languish in the lower single digits.
Ella McCay opening weekend prediction: $2.7 million
James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown is picking up the kind of precursor recognition that may lead to a Best Picture nomination. Whether it ultimately makes the cut is, well, a complete unknown. The Fox Searchlight release is out Christmas Day with Timothée Chalamet as the legendary singer and Edward Norton, Elle Fanning, Monica Barbaro, Boyd Holbrook, and Scoot McNairy providing support.
The review embargo is lifted with 74% on Rotten Tomatoes and 70 on Metacritic. It is fair to say critical reaction is more mixed than plenty of other contenders. Yet praise for Chalamet’s work is consistent and he appears poised for his second Academy nod after being up in Supporting Actor for 2017’s Call Me by Your Name. This time he’ll be playing in lead and he’s a threat to win. As for the rest of the cast, Norton (as Pete Seeger) just landed a Golden Globe nod. His inclusion at the Oscars is possible, but not a slam dunk like the headliner. Fanning and Barbaro are both generating complimentary notices, but Supporting Actress may be too crowded.
Down the line nods like Costume Design, Production Design, and (especially) Sound are achievable though I wouldn’t be surprised to see none of those ultimately materialize. The biggest question mark is indeed Picture. I don’t see Director and Adapted Screenplay happening. Unknown has made the AFI and NBR top tens and got a Best Motion Picture (Drama) slot at the Globes where they honor six hopefuls.
Mangold’s Walk the Line from 2005 (his biopic about Johnny Cash) received a handful of nods. Reese Witherspoon took home the Actress statue as June Carter Cash while Joaquin Phoenix was nominated for Actor. It contended in Film Editing, Costume Design, and Sound. I see a range of possibilities for Complete. One is Chalamet being nominated (a given) and that’s it. Under that scenario, a win could be trickier. He could also be in the mix with perhaps just Sound or another tech race or two. A best case scenario would be Unknown grabbing the ninth or tenth BP spot along with a combo of the aforementioned. It that happens, it’ll be an honor for it to be nominated in the biggest race while Chalamet goes for the victory. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Michael Keaton has trouble playing Mr. Mom forty plus years after Mr. Mom in Goodrich, out in limited fashion this weekend. From Hallie Meyers-Shyer, director of the Reese Witherspoon rom com Home Again, Keaton headlines the dramedy dealing with child rearing alongside Mila Kunis, Carmen Ejojo, Michael Urie, Kevin Pollak, and his Multiplicity costar Andie MacDowell.
Reviews are fairly decent with 71% on Rotten Tomatoes with some calling it crowd pleasing enough. Still drawing multiplex crowds, Keaton’s Beetlejuice Beetlejuice could be an awards player in tech races like Makeup & Hairstyling, Production Design, and Visual Effects. Goodrich will not be vying for any prizes during the season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The past few days for awards prognosticators like me have been eventful as the Venice and Toronto Film Festival have unveiled their lineups. Many of the expected 2024 heavy hitters have confirmed their premieres up north and across the ocean. That includes Conclave, The Piano Lesson, Queer, Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nightbitch, The End, Hard Truths, and The Room Next Door to name a few. The NY Festival features Nickel Boys as its debut screening while Blitz will play London.
None of that information is particularly surprising. There was a rather unexpected development today courtesy of Fox Searchlight. The studio premiered the first look at their Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown and announced a release date of December. Directed by James Mangold, Timothée Chalamet stars as the legendary folk singer and the Dune/Wonka actor does his own crooning that you can hear in the trailer.
So will the picture be a golden ticket for Oscar attention? The December drop would indicate that Fox thinks so. Mangold is no stranger to this genre as he made 2005’s Walk the Line with Joaquin Phoenix as Johnny Cash. He was nominated for Best Actor while Reese Witherspoon won Actress as June Carter Cash. Chalamet has been killing it lately at the box office, but his sole Academy nom was for 2017’s Call Me by Your Name (losing to Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour). This is obviously a high profile turn and he joins an Actor competition that is quite unclear. Only one thing seems certain(ish) and that’s Colman Domingo making the final five for the acclaimed Sing Sing. Since I started my forecasts in May, there’s been two other performers I’ve had slotted in the quintet: Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) and Daniel Craig (Queer). We’ll know soon enough if they are legit contenders. The other two spots have fluctuated between hopefuls like Sebastian Stan (for either The Apprentice or A Different Man), John David Washington (The Piano Lesson), and Glen Powell (Hit Man). And we can’t discount Mr. Phoenix for his second stint as Joker.
I do suspect that Chalamet will materialize in my top 5 for recognition when I update my predictions in the coming days. Where else could Unknown get in? Well, there’s Best Picture and Mangold’s direction. Walk the Line missed the cut for BP nearly 20 years ago. If there were 10 nominees back then like there is now, it probably would’ve gotten in. Mangold is a well-respected filmmaker with varied works including Cop Land, Girl, Interrupted, Logan, and Ford v Ferrari. While his co-scripting of Logan gave him an Adapted Screenplay nomination, he’s never received a directing mention.
Walk the Line did nab three other noms for Costume Design, Film Editing, and Sound Mixing. All three of those (though Sound is now just Sound since it combined Sound Mixing and Sound Editing) could be Unknown inclusions. Adapted Screenplay is also a possibility.
As for the rest of the cast, we simply don’t know if Edward Norton as Pete Seeger, Elle Fanning as Sylvie Russo, or Monica Barbaro as Joan Baez are substantial enough for supporting recognitions. I would anticipate at least Fanning being listed as a possibility in my next update.
Fox Searchlight also has Nightbitch and A Real Pain as awards bait releases. The former is mostly being discussed for Amy Adams and an Actress nod (where I currently have her ranked #1). The latter is seen as a vehicle for a Kieran Culkin Supporting Actor try (where I have him ranked fourth). Both could be in the BP mix. However, on paper, A Complete Unknown might be Fox’s most electrifying prospect. This is, of course, a complete unknown until it screens. We do now that it’ll be in this cycle.
Previously on the blog, I completed a series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 for the past couple of years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned 14 posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them!
Now my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there was a set five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.
This series will project the other five that I believe would’ve gotten in. I’ve already covered 2006-08 and you can peruse my posts on them here:
We do know half of the titles that would populate the ten. Those would be the ones that made the quintet 18 years back. During that 78th Oscar ceremony, Jack Nicholson made the surprise announcement that race relations drama Crash from Paul Haggis was the Best Picture winner. Of its seven total nominations, it also won Original Screenplay and Film Editing.
It stands as one of the bigger upsets in the Academy’s history as it took gold over the heavily favored Brokeback Mountain by Ang Lee. He won Director and the cowboy romance also received Adapted Screenplay and Original Score. The other three nominees: Bennett Miller’s Capote (for which Philip Seymour Hoffman took Best Actor), George Clooney’s Good Night, and Good Luck, and Steven Spielberg’s Munich.
2005 was the rare year where the Director nominees matched perfectly with BP so we can’t pluck out other movies from that competition. A look at the other categories do give us clues as to the other features that might’ve gotten in.
James Mangold’s Cash couple biopic Walk the Line landed Joaquin Phoenix a Best Actor nod and Reese Witherspoon the Actress statue. With a total of five mentions, a Golden Globe victory in the Musical/Comedy race, and a Critics Choice slot, it’s pretty safe to assume it makes the ten.
Same goes for The Constant Gardner from Fernando Meirelles. Rachel Weisz took Supporting Actress and it received three other noms in addition to Golden Globe and Critics Choice inclusions.
Another Critics Choicer nominee, Rob Marshall’s Memoirs of a Geisha got 6 tech nods and won 3 (Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume Design). I went back and forth on this one, but ultimately decided it probably makes the dance.
A fourth Critics Choice match goes to Ron Howard’s Cinderella Man. The boxing drama could be left off. It missed some key nods including Russell Crowe’s lead performance (Paul Giamatti was nominated for supporting) and screenplay. I think it might have just snuck in at the bottom of hopefuls.
With one picture left to plug in, there’s plenty of contenders. Hustle & Flow saw a surprise win (for Three 6 Mafia) in Original Song and Terrence Howard made the Actor five. Woody Allen’s Match Point had a sole nom in Original Screenplay, but made the Globes cut in Drama. Joe Wright’s Pride & Prejudice rendering saw Keira Knightley up in Actress in addition to three other mentions.
Ultimately my final choice came to this trio. Peter Jackson’s King Kong went 3 for 4 on its tech inclusions (Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects). However, it was generally considered a bit of a disappointment at the box office and with some critics. That said, I almost picked it.
Syriana by Stephen Gaghan gave George Clooney a Supporting Actor Oscar and was up for Original Screenplay. Yet it failed to see a Critics Choice or Globe BP nod. Nevertheless I almost picked it.
I chose to go with David Cronenberg’s A History of Violence. It received two noms for Supporting Actor (William Hurt) and Original Screenplay and was a critical darling. I went with the Academy honoring a work from the acclaimed director (especially since most of his efforts are far from Oscar friendly).
Your Place or Mine features a greatest hits CD worth of tracks by The Cars while the movie never kicks into high gear. It never totally sputters either. Keeping the leads about 2800 miles apart for the vast duration might give off Sleepless in Seattle vibes, but you’ve got chemistry between Tom Hanks and Meg Ryan that surpasses that of Reese Witherspoon and Ashton Kutcher.
We meet Debbie (Witherspoon) and Peter (Kutcher) in 2003. He’s sporting a wallet chain and she’s in a WonderBra on the night they hook up after a crazy game of poker. The romance ceases after night one though they don’t lose it all. What follows is a close 20-year platonic relationship. He’s on the East Coast where his flings never exceed the six month mark. She’s on the West Coast with her teenage son (Wesley Kimmel). Her mountain climbing ex-hubby is off climbing mountains while her zany next door neighbor and part-time gardener (Steve Zahn) is always hanging around. A helicopter mom, Debbie is finally convinced to take her own flight to Brooklyn to complete a week-long accounting course. Peter hits L.A. to watch the kid.
Staying at each other’s abodes gives them fresh insights. They pride their friendship on being completely honest. It turns out this isn’t the case in ways large and small. Peter hasn’t completely given up his young 20s dream of being a novelist. Of course, the biggest diversion from the whole truth is they are madly in love and can’t admit it. I don’t think we need a SPOILER ALERT. They both try to avoid it. Debbie, with assistance from Peter’s ex-flame (Zoë Chao, quite funny), meets a dreamy publisher (Jesse Williams) for her first flirtation in some time. Meanwhile her babysitter’s best friend (the always game Tig Notaro) serves as Peter’s sounding board.
The directorial debut of Aline Brosh McKenna, she’s no stranger to writing hits in the genre like The Devil Wears Prada and 27 Dresses. 2003, shortly before those rom com entries, is about when Witherspoon and Kutcher were starting their known features in the field (Sweet Home Alabama for her, Just Married for him). It’s a tad surprising they never teamed up before.
Your Place or Mine imagines a glossy scenario where their version of happily ever after is delayed a couple of decades. The long wait includes the inability to truly judge their chemistry as the bulk of their interactions is via calls and texts. Contrary to The Cars songs that play, I guess it’s not what we needed and there’s scant magic. You might think it’s average at best.
Reese Witherspoon is the star and producer of Your Place or Mine, which is available for viewing in the comfort of your place (but not mine) on Netflix today. The rom com pairs her with Ashton Kutcher in the directorial debut from Aline Brosh McKenna. The supporting cast includes Jesse Williams, Zoë Chao, Tig Notaro, and Steve Zahn.
With an awards qualifying limited theatrical run, this isn’t an Oscar prediction posts as much as a Golden Globes one. Witherspoon has been nominated for Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy on three occasions – 1999’s Election, 2001’s Legally Blonde, and 2005’s Walk the Line (where won the Globe and eventually the Oscar). Her sole nod in Actress (Drama) at the Globes is for 2014’s Wild (for which she received her second mention from the Academy).
The thought of Witherspoon garnering a fifth GG nom is feasible until you see the Rotten Tomatoes score. At a mere 35%, it’s highly doubtful this will be on the minds of any voters nearly a year from now. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The actual actors in Where the Crawdads Sing are not the most recognizable individuals involved in the production. Opening July 15th, the mystery drama is produced by Reese Witherspoon. It features an original song titled “Carolina” by Taylor Swift. Perhaps most important to the box office viability, it’s based on a huge bestseller by Delia Owens.
Directed by Olivia Newman, the cast includes Daisy Edgar-Jones, Taylor John Smith, Harris Dickinson, and David Strathairn. With a budget of just over $40 million, Sony is banking on a sizable female audience that led the source material to eventually sell 12 million copies. In 2019, it sold more copies than any other adult novel.
I will cop to be unfamiliar with the book’s existence. However, I’m not the target demo. With those kind of sales, there should be a built-in crowd tailor-made for the adaptation. Estimates on other sites are as low as $10 million and as high as $25 million. This should at least place in the middle of that range.
Where the Crawdads Sing opening weekend prediction: $18.7 million
For my Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank prediction, click here:
Sing 2 hopes to make a joyful noise in theaters when it debuts December 22nd. Illumination Entertainment’s animated sequel arrives five years after the original scored $270 million domestically. Garth Jennings returns to direct as do the vocal stylings of Matthew McConaughey, Reese Witherspoon, Scarlett Johansson, Nick Kroll, Taron Egerton, Tori Kelly, and Nick Offerman. New to the proceedings are Bobby Cannavale, Halsey, Pharrell Williams, Letitia Wright, Eric Andre, Chelsea Peretti, and Bono.
So will Universal find what they’re looking for in terms of box office? In 2016, part 1 made a splash with a $55 million haul over its five-day Christmas rollout. That was good for second place behind Rogue One: A Star Wars Story. The best hope here is also a runner-up showing as Spider-Man: No Way Home will most certainly be #1 in its sophomore weekend. However, Sing 2 might place third behind the premiere of The Matrix Resurrections.
I think it’s going to be a close competition between this and Matrix for the two spot. This animated follow-up is bound to leg out more strongly than Neo and company. I’ll say high 20s to low 30s for the traditional weekend and mid 40s the five-day.
Sing 2 opening weekend prediction: $31.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $46.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
For my The Matrix Resurrections prediction, click here:
Sing 2 is likely to make loud box office noises when it’s released December 22nd. The sequel to the animated musical comedy arrives five years after the original took in $270 million domestically. From Illumination Entertainment, Garth Jennings returns to direct as do the voices of Matthew McConaughey, Reese Witherspoon, Scarlett Johansson, Nick Kroll, Taron Egerton, Tori Kelly, and Nick Offerman. Newbies include Bobby Cannavale, Halsey, Pharrell Williams, Letitia Wright, Eric Andre, and Bono.
Despite part one being a smash hit, it did not manage to nab a Best Animated Feature nod. The first Sing achieved a decent 71% Rotten Tomatoes rating. There’s just a handful of reviews out for the follow-up and it’s currently lower at 60%.
With a trio of Disney efforts (Encanto, Luca, Raya and the Last Dragon), two Netflix properties (The Mitchells vs. the Machines, The Summit of the Gods), and acclaimed foreign features Flee and Belle all in the mix, Animated Feature is already crowded. I don’t foresee a sequel to something that couldn’t get in the first time around being viable.
In Best Original Song, a band that Bono started that you might be familiar with (U2) has “Your Song Saved My Life”. This is another category with plenty of high profile contenders (Beyonce and Billie Eilish among them). Bono and his mates probably won’t make the cut. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
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