February 4-6 Box Office Predictions

February kicks off with two new entries that should place 1-2 on the charts. Johnny Knoxville and his pranksters return in Jackass Forever and the Roland Emmerich disaster pic Moonfall starring Halle Berry are the debuts and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Jackass Forever Box Office Prediction

Moonfall Box Office Prediction

It’s been years since we’ve seen a Jackass experience and I do question if younger viewers aren’t as familiar with the franchise. On the other hand, no film in the series (including 2013 spinoff Bad Grandpa) has opened below $20 million and I won’t predict that this will. My low 20s forecast easily puts it in first place.

As for Moonfall, I’ve got it premiering in the same range as 2017’s Geostorm and that’s in the lower double digits range. That should certainly be good for second, but is weak considering the reported $140 million price tag.

The trio of S sequels that have reigned supreme in the last couple of weeks – Spider-Man: No Way Home, Scream, Sing 2 – should all slide 2 spots and populate the rest of the top five.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Jackass Forever

Predicted Gross: $21.8 million

2. Moonfall

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

3. Spider-Man: No Way Home

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

4. Scream

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

5. Sing 2

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million

Box Office Results (January 28-30)

In a weekend that saw no major releases, Spider-Man: No Way Home easily ruled for the sixth out of its seven weekends. The MCU sensation took in another $11 million, reaching a tad higher than my $10.3 million projection. It stands just $25 million away from overtaking Avatar as the third biggest domestic earner of all time.

Scream was in the runner-up position again and it held better than I anticipated. The horror sequel made $7.2 million in its third frame compared to my $5.5 million estimate and it’s grossed $62 million.

Sing 2 was third with $4.6 million, edging my $4.2 million take and it’s up to $134 million.

Redeeming Love was fourth in its sophomore outing with $1.7 million (I said $1.8 million) for $6 million overall.

The King’s Man rounded out the top five at $1.6 million (I went with $1.3 million). Tally is $33 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 28-30 Box Office Predictions

January should close out very quietly at the box office as we await more high profiles releases in February. There’s no newcomers this weekend as the trio of S sequels – Spider-Man: No Way Home, Scream, Sing 2 – should easily maintain the 1-2-3 positions. In fact, the top 5 is likely to remain unaltered with Redeeming Love in fourth and The King’s Man rounding out the top five.

I’m projecting drops in the 20s for Spidey, Sing and King’s while Scream and Love could lose around half of their previous haul.

Quite simply, not a whole lot to ponder this time around and here’s how I see the top 5 shaking out:

1. Spider-Man: No Way Home

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

2. Scream

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

3. Sing 2

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

4. Redeeming Love

Predicted Gross: $1.8 million

5. The King’s Man

Predicted Gross: $1.3 million

Box Office Results (January 21-23)

Two newcomers couldn’t make a dent in multiplexes as MCU’s behemoth took back the top spot from Ghostface. No Way Home made $14 million in its sixth frame, ending out my $13 million estimate. It’s up to $720 million and perched 4th all-time domestically.

Scream dropped to second with $12.2 million (in line with my $12.7 million projection) for $51 million in its two weeks. The 59% fall is similar to Scream 4‘s 62% sophomore dip.

Sing 2 was third with $5.7 million (I said $5.3 million) for a five-week tally of $128 million.

The historical romance Redeeming Love premiered in fourth with $3.5 million. That’s certainly unimpressive, but it did manage to exceed my $2.4 million prediction.

The King’s Man rounded out the top five with $1.7 million (I went with $1.6 million) for $31 million overall.

Last and least, the long delayed The King’s Daughter (featuring Pierce Brosnan and a mermaid) should have stayed on the shelf. The fantasy adventure debuted in 8th with $750,000. I thought it might make $1 million and my generosity clearly got the best of me.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 21-23 Box Office Predictions

The trio of S sequels – Scream, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Sing 2 – should continue to dominate the box office charts despite the arrival of two newcomers this weekend. We have the historical romance Redeeming Love and long in the can fantasy adventure The King’s Daughter debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Redeeming Love Box Office Prediction

The King’s Daughter Box Office Prediction

The real drama could be for the #1 spot and that depends on how far Scream drops in its sophomore weekend and how well Spidey holds in its sixth. For some context, Scream 3 back in 2000 fell 53% in its second frame while 2011’s Scream 4 dip was steeper at 62%. With little competition, the fifth installment could see a drop more in part 3’s range, but it could also come close to 60%. No Way Home, if it descends in the mid 30s range, might give it a run for its money at the top. In fact, I’m giving the web slinger an ever so slight edge.

My projection of $2.4 million for Redeeming Love should mean a fourth place showing behind the fifth weekend for Sing 2. The five spot could go to The King’s Man, not the The King’s Daughter.

As mentioned, The King’s Daughter has been collecting dust on the shelf since the fifth year of the Obama administration (read my full post for all the details). I’m forecasting a measly $1 million and that should keep it outside the high five.

Here’s how I’m seeing the top five breaking down:

1. Spider-Man: No Way Home

Predicted Gross: $13 million

2. Scream

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

3. Sing 2

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

4. Redeeming Love

Predicted Gross: $2.4 million

5. The King’s Man

Predicted Gross: $1.6 million

Box Office Results (January 14-17)

The four-day MLK weekend knocked Spider-Man off his perch at #1 and delivered pleasing results for Scream. The well-reviewed fifth entry in the quarter century old series took in $33.8 million over the long frame, coming in a bit under my $36.4 million prediction. That’s good for the third best 3-day traditional start in the franchise after Scream 3 ($34 million) and Scream 2 ($32 million) as it made $30 million from Friday to Sunday.

After four weeks at #1, Spider-Man: No Way Home was second with $24.6 million, slightly ahead of my $22.7 million projection. The MCU juggernaut stands at $702 million and passed Black Panther to become the 4th highest domestic earner in history.

Sing 2 was third with $10.3 million (in range with my $9.4 million take) for $121 million overall.

The 355 was fourth in its sophomore outing with $2.7 million (I went with $3.1 million) for $8 million total.

The five spot belonged to The King’s Man at $2.6 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five. It’s made $29 million.

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Redeeming Love Box Office Prediction

**Blogger’s Update (01/18): Already souring on this and revising estimate from $3.2 million to $2.4 million

A historical romance set during the California gold rush, Redeeming Love will attempt to cash in with a female crowd on January 21st. It’s directed by D.J. Caruso, trying on a different genre after helming thrillers and action fare such as Disturbia and xXx: Return of Xander Cage. The cast is headlined by Abigail Cowen and Tom Lewis with a supporting cast including Logan Marshall-Green, Famke Janssen, Nina Dobrev, and Eric Dane.

Love is based on a 1991 novel by Francine Rivers (her and the director share screenplay credit). Pinnacle Peak Pictures is the distributor, known for their faith-based efforts like God’s Not Dead and Do You Believe? The production team is responsible for the sleeper hit I Can Only Imagine. 

Slated to premiere on around 1800 screens, the combo of appeal to women and the possibility of Christian audiences turning out could cause this to over perform. We’ve seen it before (Pinnacle’s Unplanned from 2019 made over $6 million in its first weekend). I do question how widely this has been promoted and the relatively small screen count could be a hindrance. Redeeming might manage a gross of over $5 million, but I’ll say $3-4 million is more likely.

Redeeming Love opening weekend prediction: $2.4 million

For my The King’s Daughter prediction, click here:

The King’s Daughter Box Office Prediction