Tag: Rami Malek

November 14-16 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (11/12): I am downgrading my The Running Man estimate from $27.6 million to $19.6 million as reviews and word-of-mouth have stalled momentum; I am downgrading my Keeper estimate from $6.5 million to $3.2 million

The Running Man looks steal the box office crown as heist threequel Now You See Me: Now You Don’t and horror pic Keeper debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:

The Running Man Box Office Prediction
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t Box Office Prediction
Keeper Box Office Prediction

Based on the Stephen King novel, sci-fi action satire The Running Man also serves as a remake of the 1987 pic with Glen Powell taking over starring duties from Arnold Schwarzenegger. I don’t think it reaches the heights of Predator: Badlands from this past weekend (more on that below), but it should place 1st in the low to mid 20s.

Now You See Me: Now You Don’t includes Jesse Eisenberg, Woody Harrelson, and Morgan Freeman reprising their roles from 2013 and 2016 predecessors. That’s a lengthy layover from part 2 to 3 and the second one didn’t match the original in terms of cash. I anticipate the drop-off will continue and I have See in third.

Keeper could overperform as horror titles often do, but I’m going mid single digits for a fourth place showing for the latest genre effort from the prolific Osgood Perkins.

It will be interesting to see the sophomore frame percentage decline for Predator: Badlands. 2010’s Predators and 2018’s The Predator each debuted in the mid 20s (far below this one). They plummeted 72% and 63% respectively in their follow-up outings. The film in the franchise that performed similarly to Badlands (2004’s AVP: Alien Vs. Predator) saw a 68% dip. However, I don’t see this falling that far due to its A- Cinemascore (the strongest of the lot). Mid 50s seems more likely.

Regretting You, which showed impressive staying power last weekend, should round out the top five and here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. The Running Man

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million

2. Predator: Badlands

Predicted Gross: $18.2 million

3. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million

4. Regretting You

Predicted Gross: $5 million

6. Keeper

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (November 7-9)

It took a nearly 40-year-old franchise to wake up the box office and showed that the series wasn’t over the hill as Predator: Badlands amassed $40 million. Solid word-of-mouth and positive reviews helped propel it to the highest start of the nine pictures when not adjusting for inflation. This easily eclipsed my $27.6 million prediction.

Regretting You, as mentioned, slid a teensy 15% in weekend #3 to $6.6 million compared to my $4.8 million call. The romantic drama is plugging along with $38 million thus far.

Black Phone 2 dropped from 1st to 3rd as it received $5.1 million, in line with my $4.6 million projection. The sequel has taken in $70 million after four weeks.

The inspirational early 20th century set drama Sarah’s Oil, which includes Zachary Levi among its cast, was my surprise of the weekend. It placed fourth with $4.2 million and I didn’t do a guesstimate. Scoring a rare A+ Cinemascore grade, Oil could hold up well in the coming weeks.

Historical courtroom drama Nuremberg with Oscar winners Russell Crowe and Rami Malek rounded out the top five with $3.8 million, managing to outdo my $3 million take.

Bugonia was sixth in weekend #2 at $3.4 million (ahead of my $2.7 million prediction) for $12 million after two weeks of wide release.

Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc finished seventh with $3.4 million (I said $2.9 million) as the anime hit stands at $37 million after three weeks.

Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson’s drama Die, My Love debuted in eighth with $2.6 million, on pace with my $2.5 million estimate.

Finally, boxing biopic Christy with Sydney Sweeney was KO’d in 11th with just $1.3 million. I was more generous at $2.2 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

November 7-9 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (11/05): Posting a significant update with Nuremberg and Die, My Love predicted openings at $3 million and $2.5 million, respectively.

After a frighteningly bad Halloween weekend that marked the worst box office frame of 2025, Predator: Badlands seeks to scare up decent business. We also have the boxing biopic Christy with Sydney Sweeney debuting and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Predator: Badlands Box Office Prediction
Christy Box Office Prediction

There’s no question that Predator: Badlands will easily be #1 though it has a wide range of possibilities. A worst case scenario might be high teens/low 20s with the rosiest performance nearing $40 million. I’m going mid to high 20s.

Christy could have benefited from better reviews and more awards speculation, but it should struggle to make the top 5.

On a side note, there’s two other wannabe Oscar contenders premiering: Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson in Die, My Love and the historical drama Nuremberg with Russell Crowe and Rami Malek. I’ve yet to see theater counts on either and both saw their awards prospects dim upon festival screenings. I will update my numbers if I feel one or both have a chance of breaking through.

As for holdovers, it could be a close race for #2 and I have Regretting You just edging current champ Black Phone 2. It could also be tight between Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc and Bugonia to round out the high five.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Predator: Badlands

Predicted Gross: $27.6 million

2. Regretting You

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

3. Black Phone 2

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

4. Nuremberg

Predicted Gross: $3 million

5. Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

6. Bugonia

Predicted Gross: $2.7 million

7. Die, My Love

Predicted Gross: $2.5 million

8. Christy

Predicted Gross: $2.2 million

Box Office Results (October 31-November 2)

The worst Halloween weekend since 1993 is thanks to a dearth of new material with a likely assist by game 7 of the World Series on Saturday night. Black Phone 2 managed to return to 1st in its third outing with $8.3 million, on target with my $8 million call. The horror sequel has taken in $61 million so far.

Regretting You was close behind in second with $7.8 million, ahead of my $6.1 million prediction. The romantic drama stands at $27 million after two weeks.

Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc, after an unexpected #1 bow, fell an anticipated 66% to third with $6.2 million (I said $6.4 million). The ten-day tally is $30 million.

Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos and starring Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons didn’t exactly having bragging rights in fourth with $5 million. Yet it did easily eclipse my $2.8 million projection as it expanded nationwide. Counting its limited release the previous weekend, it’s made $6 million.

The 40th anniversary reissue of Back to the Future was fifth with $4.9 million compared to my $4.6 million guesstimate. The extra coin brought its overall domestic total to $221 million.

Finally, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere sank 58% in its sophomore go-round in sixth with $3.7 million, I was more generous at $4.8 million and the biopic has earned a mere $16 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Nuremberg

Prior to its November 7th stateside debut, Nuremberg has screened at the Toronto Film Festival. The historical drama is James Vanderbilt’s second directorial feature behind 2015’s so-so received Truth (he’s best known for his screenwriting including Zodiac, the two Amazing Spider-Man pics, the latest Scream entries and Abigail). Best Actor winners Russell Crowe (as Nazi war criminal Hermann Göring) and Rami Malek headline. Leo Woodall, John Slattery, Mark O’Brien, Colin Hanks, Richard E. Grant and Michael Shannon costar.

Reaction is in the mixed variety with 50% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 63 Metacritic. Despite decent ink for the cast, this is unlikely to generate any significant awards chatter for the Sony Pictures Classics release. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

April 25-27 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (04/23): I am now factoring in the re-release of Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith and projecting a third place showing with $20M+. I am also lowering my The Account 2 estimate from $28.6 million to $24.3 million.

The Accountant 2 with Ben Affleck looks to challenge the second weekend of Sinners for box office supremacy while horror pic Until Dawn also debuts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

The Accountant 2 Box Office Prediction
Until Dawn Box Office Prediction

Over Easter weekend, I predicted a close race between A Minecraft Movie and Sinners with the former coming out on top. I underestimated Sinners (more on that below) and it toppled Minecraft. This time it could be a photo finish between Sinners and The Accountant 2.

My high 20s projection for Affleck’s action thriller sequel could be enough for #1. However, due to its A Cinemascore grade and sizzling reviews, I’m thinking Sinners only dips in the mid 30s and that could give it north of $30 million for a repeat performance on top.

A mid 40s drop would give Minecraft $20M+ and third place. The battle for fifth could be interesting. While faith-based The King of Kings held even better than I figured over the holiday, the third weekend slide should be heftier in the mid 50s. That could still leave it in fourth as I have little faith in Until Dawn.

Here’s how I have the high six playing out:

1. Sinners

Predicted Gross: $33.1 million

2. The Accountant 2

Predicted Gross: $24.3 million

3. Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith re-release

Predicted Gross: $22.6 million

4. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $21.4 million

5. The King of Kings

Predicted Gross: $8 million

6. Until Dawn

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

Box Office Results (April 18-20)

It was a smoking Easter frame for Ryan Coogler’s Sinners with the best debut for an original picture since Jordan Peele’s Us from 2019. As mentioned, glowing reviews helped build buzz to a $48 million start. That tops my $44.8 million forecast and the Michael B. Jordan vampire saga looks to hold up well based on that word-of-mouth (in addition to being a likely awards contender).

After two weeks atop the charts, A Minecraft Movie slipped to second with $40.4 million (not matching my $46.1 million estimate). Nevertheless Warner Bros was able to claim legit bragging rights with Sinners and this each exceeding expectations. The three-week total is $343 million.

The King of Kings eased a scant 9% for third with $17.5 million, rising above my $12.7 million prediction. The ten-day tally is $45 million.

The Amateur was fourth with $7 million and I went a bit higher at $8.6 million. The Rami Malek spy flick stands at $27 million after two weekends.

Finally, Warfare rounded out the top five with $4.8 million (I said $5.4 million) for $17 million total in its second outing.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

April 18-20 Box Office Predictions

Sinners, which reunites Michael B. Jordan with his Creed and Black Panther director Ryan Coogler, looks for a strong Easter weekend showing at multiplexes. Seeking to challenge A Minecraft Movie for the top spot, you can peruse my detailed prediction post on the vampire flick here:

Sinners Box Office Prediction

It could be a real photo finish for the #1 slot. Sinners is holding at a remarkable 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and that should help build buzz. My mid 40s projection might equal box office supremacy.

Yet I have Minecraft barely managing bragging rights with a low 40s percent ease for a third week in first. The separation is less than $1.5 million between the leaders.

Holdovers in their sophomore frames should populate the rest of the top five via The King of Kings, The Amateur, and Warfare.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $46.1 million

2. Sinners

Predicted Gross: $44.8 million

3. The King of Kings

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

4. The Amateur

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

5. Warfare

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

Box Office Results (April 11-13)

A Minecraft Movie mastered the charts once again with $78.5 million, on pace with my $77.9 million call. The video game based smash has amassed $278 million in just two weeks of release.

Five newcomers filled the next spots with animated The King of Kings from Angel Studios outpacing its competitors. With an A+ Cinemascore, it was runner-up with $19.3 million. That’s falling shy of my $21.4 million estimate, but it’s still a terrific result.

The Amateur with Rami Malek was third with $14.8 million. That’s at the top of the anticipated range for the spy thriller and outdoes my $11.9 million prediction.

Warfare from Alex Garland and Iraq War vet Ray Mendoza managed fourth with $8.3 million, on target with my $8.5 million projection.

Blumhouse thriller Drop was fifth with a meh $7.3 million. I was close at $7.6 million. The B Cinemascore is decent for its genre though I’d look for this to fade quickly.

Finally, The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 took sixth with $6 million, I was a tad lower at $5.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

April 11-13 Box Office Predictions

After a record breaking start, A Minecraft Movie should easily repeat in first position at the box office. Yet there’s a handful of newcomers jockeying for slots 2-6. We have the faith-based animated tale The King of Kings, Rami Malek’s spy thriller The Amateur, Blumhouse thriller Drop, Alex Garland’s Iraqi Freedom drama Warfare, and episodes 6-8 of the Christian show The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quintet here:

The King of Kings Box Office Prediction
The Amateur Box Office Prediction
Drop Box Office Prediction
Warfare Box Office Prediction
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 Box Office Prediction

Based on the best selling video game of all time, A Minecraft Movie achieved the best opening for a picture based on a video game (more on that below). I’m estimating a sophomore drop between 50-55% and that should put it somewhere in the mid 70s-low 80s.

A report surfaced today that The King of Kings has already taken in approximately $8 million in pre-sales. That’s surprising, but Angel Studios has certainly exceeded projections before via Sound of Freedom. A low 20s performance would easily put it in the runner-up spot.

After that it gets tricky. The Amateur, Warfare, and Drop could all open similarly in the $7-11 million range. I’ve got them placing in the order of the previous sentence with The Chosen in sixth.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $77.9 million

2. The King of Kings

Predicted Gross: $21.4 million

3. The Amateur

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million

4. Warfare

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

5. Drop

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

6. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (April 4-6)

The box office got a much needed jolt as A Minecraft Movie kicked off well above forecasts. With $162.7 million, it is 2025’s largest start thus far and, as mentioned, the highest video game adapted feature in history. The previous record was held by 2023’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie with $146 million. I was way off with a prediction of only $92.5 million. With a less than expected B+ Cinemascore, it should fall further than the 37% that Mario dropped in its second weekend. Yet any way you cut it, this is a fantastic result for Warner Bros.

A Working Man with Jason Statham slid to second with $7.3 million, slightly under my $8 million call. The action thriller has made $27 million after ten days.

The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 placed third with $6.9 million, not quite matching my $7.8 million estimate. Episodes 3-5 of the popular program made a little more than half of the nearly $12 million achieved by Part 1. Per above, diminishing returns should continue with Part 3.

Disney dud Snow White was fourth with $5.9 million (I said $6.7 million). The troubling three-week tally is $77 million.

Horror flick The Woman in the Yard was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside the high five. With $4.5 million, the two-week total is $16 million.

I had Part 1 of the The Chosen in fifth with $5.2 million, but it plummeted 84% to seventh with $1.8 million for $17 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Amateur Box Office Prediction

Based on a 1981 novel by Robert Littell that was turned into a movie starring John Savage and Christopher Plummer, 20th Century Studios releases The Amateur on April 11th. The spy thriller is directed by James Hawes with Bohemian Rhapsody Oscar winner Rami Malek headlining. Costars include Rachel Brosnahan (about to appear in the eagerly anticipated Superman), Caitriona Balfe, Jon Bernthal, Michael Stuhlbarg, Holt McCallany, Julianne Nicholson, Adrian Martinez, and Laurence Fishburne.

Once fashioned as a starring vehicle for Hugh Jackman, The Amateur has less power to capitalize on and seemingly scant buzz. This may struggle to reach $10 million, but I’ll project that it just gets there.

The Amateur opening weekend prediction: $11.9 million

For my Drop prediction, click here:

Drop Box Office Prediction

For my The King of Kings prediction, click here:

The King of Kings Box Office Prediction

For my The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 prediction, click here:

The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 Box Office Prediction

For my Warfare prediction, click here:

Warfare Box Office Prediction

Oscars: The Case of Bradley Cooper in Maestro

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at the Actor quintet and it starts with Bradley Cooper in Maestro. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

Silver Linings Playbook (2012, Actor); American Hustle (2013, Supporting Actor); American Sniper (2014, Actor); A Star Is Born (2018, Actor)

The Case for Bradley Cooper:

For his portrayal of the legendary EGOT recipient Leonard Bernstein in the Netflix production, Mr. Cooper has been nominated for BAFTA, Critics Choice, SAG, and the Globes. There could also be the feeling that he’s overdue as this marks his fifth acting nod with no hardware to show for it (just like Annette Bening in Nyad per my previous post).

The Case Against Bradley Cooper:

He didn’t win the Globe or Critics Choice as Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) and Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) have split the prizes so far. While Maestro had a decent nomination morning, Cooper was not recognized for his direction. That’s what happened in 2018 when he got the Actor mention for Star (he would lose to Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody), but not his behind the camera work. Of all the BP contenders, this has the lowest RT rating and there’s a feeling among some that Cooper is trying too hard in Maestro for the gold.

The Verdict:

Cooper is third behind Murphy and Giamatti. I don’t think his victory is an impossibility. Yet it looks to be a long shot unless he scores an upset at SAG or BAFTA. In other words, the O in EGOT should still be unfulfilled.

My Case Of posts will continue with Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer…

Oscar Predictions: Oppenheimer

When it comes to Academy love for Christopher Nolan and his filmography, the magic number appears to be 8. That’s how many nominations happened for 2008’s The Dark Knight, 2010’s Inception, and 2017’s Dunkirk. The filmmaker looks to exceed that figure with Oppenheimer. The three-hour epic biopic starring Cillian Murphy as the father of the atomic bomb opens this weekend and the review embargo lapsed today. The massive supporting cast includes Emily Blunt, Matt Damon, Robert Downey Jr., Florence Pugh, Josh Hartnett, Casey Affleck, Rami Malek, Kenneth Branagh, and Benny Safdie (among others). Seriously when I say among others. As in, Gary Oldman plays Harry Truman and that’s far down on the Wiki list of familiar faces.

The Academy has a checkered history with Mr. Nolan. While The Dark Knight managed those eight mentions and won two, it famously missed Best Picture. Many believe the expansion to 10 features from five a year later was due to the Dark snub. Nolan himself has only been up for Best Director once with Dunkirk. His omission for Inception was a surprise. As far as actors who’ve competed in his works, that list consists of only one: Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight. He, of course, posthumously won.

Based on the critical reaction to Oppenheimer, Nolan’s record for nods may be broken and the acting list should expand. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 93% and while not all write-ups are raves, I believe enough are so that Best Picture and Director are likely happening. In fact, I see both of them occurring before an Adapted Screenplay spot (which could still materialize).

It’s no surprise that this should play in tech races. From Cinematography to Film Editing and Original Score and Production Design. Those might be givens as is Sound. Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and certainly Visual Effects are all feasible too.

If you’re keeping score, we’re already potentially above 8. Then there’s the performances. Murphy (obviously in lead) was assumed to be a surefire contender (his first at bat) and that’s bearing out. The bigger question was which supporting players would emerge. The answer it seems is Blunt and Downey Jr. For Blunt, it somehow would mark her first nomination. For Downey Jr., it would be the third – 31 years after Chaplin in lead and 15 years following Tropic Thunder in Supporting.

Bottom line: Oppenheimer appears positioned to be Nolan’s personal best showing at the big dance. It should be right up there with Killers of the Flower Moon and perhaps Dune: Part Two as far as numerical possibilities. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oppenheimer Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (07/19): I’ve increased my prediction from $52.3M to $65.3M

As one of the few directors whose name can open a movie, Christopher Nolan’s epic biopic Oppenheimer reaches theaters on July 21st. Cillian Murphy headlines the three-hour historical epic as the title character, known as the father of the atomic bomb. The large supporting cast includes Emily Blunt, Matt Damon, Robert Downey Jr., Florence Pugh, Josh Hartnett, Casey Affleck, Rami Malek, Kenneth Branagh, and Benny Safdie.

Shot for a reported $100 million, the Oscar hopeful is targeting a second place showing by outpacing the second frame of Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One. First place appears unreachable due to Barbie. The social media world has had a ball with memes and GIFs celebrating the premieres of these two huge projects on the same date. The term “Barbenheimer” has even been coined with thousands of moviegoers having already planned long days at the multiplex to view both.

Thanks in large part to his Dark Knight trilogy, Nolan serves as the biggest main draw for his own projects. He boasts a directorial bankability that few of his colleagues share (Tarantino is another example). Non-Batman projects have seen impressive starts. In 2010, Inception (hot on the heels of The Dark Knight) premiered with $62 million. Interstellar started with $47 million in 2014. Over Labor Day weekend in 2020, Tenet braved unfavorable COVID conditions and managed a $20 million beginning.

Oppenheimer faces its challenges. There’s obviously the competition from an iconic doll and Ethan Hunt. The subject matter may not be enticing to younger viewers who typically drive the summer box office. Still early indications including some sold out IMAX venues at considerably higher prices have me thinking it could top $50 million.

Oppenheimer opening weekend prediction: $65.3 million

For my Barbie prediction, click here:

Barbie Box Office Prediction