As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted two years and in 2011, it switched from anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic number for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set 10.
What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?
On the eve of the 98th Academy Awards, let’s ponder what five would have done so at the 97th. One is for certain. We know that Sean Baker’s Anora has a reserved slot. It won five out of six awards it was up for – Picture, Director, Actress (Mikey Madison), Original Screenplay, and Film Editing.
Picking the other 4 of 9 for the final five is less clear. Here’s my best speculation.
The Brutalist
Brady Corbet’s epic immigrant drama scored ten nods and won three for Adrien Brody’s lead performance, Original Score, and Cinematography. Other nods went to the director, Supporting Actress (Felicity Jones), Supporting Actor (Guy Pearce), Original Screenplay, Film Editing, and Production Design.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes and it can certainly be argued that it was second in the BP voting.
A Complete Unknown
James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic starring Timothée Chalamet landed a laudable eight nominations – BP, Director, Actor, Monica Barbaro in Supporting Actress, Edward Norton in Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Sound. It was one of two BP nominees that went home empty-handed.
Does It Make the Final Five?
I don’t think it’s automatic but yes. Despite the 0 for 8 tally, the fact that it made the directing five puts it over the edge.
Conclave
Edward Berger’s drama about the search a new Pope also landed eight mentions with the others coming in Actor (Ralph Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Isabella Rossellini), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, and Production Design. It won for the script.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Like Unknown, not automatic but I’m going with yes because of the screenplay victory.
Dune: Part Two
The Denis Villeneuve sequel managed five nominations with two victories in Sound and Visual Effects and at bats for Cinematography and Production Design.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. That handful is nods is only half of what the 2021 predecessor achieved and Villeneuve’s omission is telling.
Emilia Pérez
Jacques Audiard’s crime musical easily led the ceremony with 13 nominations. There were victories in Supporting Actress (Zoe Saldaña) and Original Song. Other noms were for directing, Actress (Karla Sofia Gascón), Adapted Screenplay, International Feature Film, Cinematography, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, another Original Song, and Sound.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. As you may recall, Gascón’s controversial comments likely sunk the pic’s chances at International Feature Film where I’m Still Here would emerge. However, at the time of the nominations, I feel Pérez still would’ve made it in the top half of contention.
I’m Still Here
The Brazilian political drama from Walter Salles was the beneficiary of Emilia backlash when it took the IFF prize. It was also up for Actress (Fernanda Torres).
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Even with the late breaking international prize, the three noms are second lowest of the lot.
Nickel Boys
RaMell Ross’s drama is the only pic with two nominations with the other coming in Adapted Screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No and the question was pretty much answered above.
The Substance
Coralie Fargeat was nominated for director in her wild anti-aging body horror saga that won Makeup and Hairstyling and was up for Actress (Demi Moore) and Original Screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
This was the toughest one to leave off, but no. I’d have it sixth. Had Moore received Best Actress, it might be a different story.
Wicked
With 10 noms, the adaptation of the acclaimed Broadway musical won Costume Design and Production Design. It additionally made the ballot for Actress (Cynthia Erivo), Supporting Actress (Ariana Grande), Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Sound, and Visual Effects.
Does It Make the Final Five?
The case could certainly be made, but I’m going no. No direction or screenplay inclusions make the call a bit easier.
That means my 2024 final five consists of the alphabetically top heavy:
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
The 98th Academy Awards air tomorrow and down the line, I’ll give you my top 5 for that show!
As far as precursors go, it’s been a brutal weekend thus far for The Brutalist. At the Critics Choice Awards, the film’s sole victory was Adrien Brody in Actor. It lost the big race to Anora and, even more shockingly, Jon M. Chu took Director for Wicked over Brady Corbet.
At tonight’s Directors Guild of America Awards ceremony, this was the opportunity for Corbet to get back on track for what most prognosticators (including this one) figured would be a sweep over the season. The DGA’s main prize has matched Best Director at the Oscars 21 out of 24 times in the 21st century.
So what happened? Well, Anora went and altered Corbet’s narrative. Sean Baker is the winner and it makes what was considered a safe Oscar race to predict a tough one.
I correctly called the other two competitions as RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) took the First-Time Feature prize while Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev are your Documentary filmmaking recipients for Porcelain War.
My PGA reaction will be rolling in soon, but the DGA made an unpredictable season even more so.
In this busy awards weekend (Critics Choice is tomorrow and PGA on Saturday), the Directors Guild also weighs in with their best of on Saturday. The winner of the DGA Feature Film race correlates with the Oscar winner the vast majority of the time. That would be 21 of 24 occurrences in the 21st century. The guild also honors filmmakers in the documentary field and those making their first feature.
Let’s walk through all 3 competitions with a winner selection and a runner-up.
Feature Film
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)
The only difference between the Academy’s quintet and here is Berger in this mix and Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) in contention for Oscar. This is a very easy pick. Even if The Brutalist doesn’t take BP at the big show (and that’s quite possible), Corbet is the overwhelming favorite.
PREDICTED WINNER: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Is there one? I suppose Sean Baker in Anora
Documentaries
Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev (Porcelain War), Julian Brave NoiseCat and Emily Kassie (Sugarcane), Johan Grimonprez (Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat), Ibrahim Nash’at (Hollywoodland), Natalie Rae and Angela Patton (Daughters)
There is less of a match with DGA and Oscar in this competition. Porcelain, Sugarcane, and Soundtrack are all up at the Academy while Daughters was an unexpected snub. This is admittedly guesswork with Oscar frontrunner No Other Land contending but I’ll roll with Porcelain.
PREDICTED WINNER: Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev, Porcelain War
Runner-Up: Natalie Rae and Angela Patton, Daughters
FIRST-TIME FEATURE FILM
Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light), Megan Park (My Old Ass), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Halfdan Ullmann Tøndel (Armand), Sean Wang (Dídi)
All five pics have their admirers, but this should come down to Kapadia vs. Ross. I’m giving the latter the slight edge.
The Critics’ Choice Awards hold their 30th ceremony this Friday after being delayed nearly a month due to the California wildfires. The Chelsea Handler hosted affair could certainly provide clues as to where Oscar could go in various competitions.
For some context, here’s how many times the CCA victor in some high profile races have matched with the Academy in the previous decade:
Picture: 5/10
Director: 8/10
Actress: 6/10
Actor: 6/10
Supporting Actress: 8/10
Supporting Actor: 9/10
Unlike the Oscars where my speculation goes on for months and across scores of posts, this is quick and to the point. Here are my winner predictions with a runner-up named. I’ll have a recap up shortly after the show.
Best Picture
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Anora
Best Director
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
PREDICTED WINNER – Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)
PREDICTED WINNER – Mikey Madison, Anora
Runner-Up: Demi Moore, The Substance
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic)
PREDICTED WINNER – Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
PREDICTED WINNER – Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
PREDICTED WINNER – Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance
PREDICTED WINNER – Anora
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Conclave
Runner-Up: Nickel Boys
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, Flow, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
PREDICTED WINNER – Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: All We Imagine as Light
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
PREDICTED WINNER – The Wild Robot
Runner-Up: Flow
BEST COMEDY
Deadpool & Wolverine, Hit Man, My Old Ass, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, Thelma
PREDICTED WINNER – A Real Pain
Runner-Up: Saturday Night
BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS
Alyla Browne (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Elliot Heffernan (Blitz), Maisy Stella (My Old Ass), Izaac Wang (Dídi), Alisha Weir (Abigail), Zoe Ziegler (Janet Planet)
PREDICTED WINNER – Izaac Wang, Dídi
Runner-Up: Elliot Heffernan, Blitz
BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
Anora, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Saturday Night, Sing Sing, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, Nosferatu, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST EDITING
Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, September 5
PREDICTED WINNER – Anora
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – The Substance
Runner-Up: Wicked
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked
Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two
BEST SCORE
The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot
PREDICTED WINNER – Challengers
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST SONG
“Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl; “Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
PREDICTED WINNER – “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: “Compress/Repress” from Challengers
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Substance, Wicked
PREDICTED WINNER – Dune: Part Two
Runner-Up: Better Man
That means I’m projecting that these pictures win these numbers of CCAs:
4 Wins
The Brutalist
3 Wins
Anora, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
2 Wins
A Real Pain
1 Win
Challengers, Conclave, Dídi, Dune: Part Two, The Substance, The Wild Robot
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered seven of the BP contenders and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. The next entry is Nickel Boys from RaMell Ross.
The Case for Nickel Boys:
With 90% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 91 Metacritic, Nickel Boys has sat atop or near the top of many critics best of lists. Precursor attention in BP came from the Golden Globes and Critics Choice.
The Case Against Nickel Boys:
The Case for Nickel Boys above will be the shortest of the bunch. While it landed noms at the Globes and Critics Choice, victories are non-existent and it missed at BAFTA and didn’t make the PGA cut. It is up for only one more Oscar in Adapted Screenplay and therefore has the fewest nominations of all 10 BP hopefuls. That means no directing love for RaMell Ross and no acting contestants. This is not a recipe that equals BP.
The Verdict:
Don’t bet on Nickel as an argument could be made that it’s 10th of the 10 contenders in terms of winning possibility.
My Case Of posts will continue with The Substance…
My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Sunday, January 19th (note the new date) prior to the announcement on Thursday, January 23rd. Note that new date too as the Academy pushed back the nomination unveilings due to the California wildfires. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.
The fifth post in this series is Best Director. If you missed my write-ups for the acting derbies, you can access them here:
Similar to Best Actor, I believe there are four hopefuls represented here that you don’t want to bet against. There is a quartet of filmmakers who have been nominated in the four most significant precursors (DGA, Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice). They are Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), and Brady Corbet (The Brutalist). Mr. Corbet won the Globe while the other races are TBD. I wouldn’t leave any of them out of your predictions.
So it all comes down to the fifth slot and I will discuss seven possibilities that I feel are viable. Before we get to that, there are the directors who might’ve had a shot before their pictures premiered. The movies either became non-contenders due to poor buzz and reviews or just never properly caught on in the awards chatter. This list includes Francis Ford Coppola (Megalopolis), Todd Phillips (Joker: Folie à Deux), Yorgos Lanthimos (Kinds of Kindness), Ridley Scott (Gladiator II), George Miller (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Joshua Oppenheimer (The End), Pablo Larrain (Maria), Pedro Almodóvar (The Room Next Door) and Steve McQueen (Blitz).
The next level includes makers of movies that didn’t quite reach BP consideration and even some that could make the cut at BP. I’m looking at Tim Fehlbaum (September 5), Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing), Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Walter Salles (I’m Still Here), Robert Eggers (Nosferatu) and Luca Guadagnino for Challengers and Queer.
Now let’s get to the 7 individuals fighting for the 5th spot, shall we?
Jon M. Chu directed one of the year’s largest blockbusters in Wicked. However, he has only picked up a Critics Choice precursor mention in which there were eight nominees. I’d rank him 6th of these 7 possibilities.
Coralie Fargeat’s behind the camera work for The Substance has yielded her Globe, Critics Choice, and BAFTA noms. The notable omission is DGA, but DGA/Oscar seldom match completely. I have her 1st of these 7 possibilities.
Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light) got in the Globes mix but couldn’t make it anywhere else. She’s 5th of the 7 possibilities.
James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) was the surprise fifth contender at DGA and Unknown has been exceeding expectations at precursors as we arrive at Oscar nominations. Under the same logic seen above with Fargeat, I have Mangold 3rd of the 7 possibilities.
Mohammad Rasoulof’s direction of The Seed of the Sacred Fig was once seen a strong hopeful. Fig has, however, seemingly fallen out of BP contention and Rasoulof has not been nominated at any of the aforementioned shows. He’s 7th of the 7 possibilities.
RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) made the octet of Critics Choice contestants and has been absent elsewhere. Boys is a question mark for BP inclusion and I have Ross 4th of the 7 possibilities.
Finally, Denis Villeneuve was a shocking snub in 2021 with Dune. For Dune: Part Two, he’s missed DGA and the Globes but was included in Critics Choice and BAFTA. The Academy might seek to rectify their ’21 activity. At the moment, I have him 2nd of the 7 possibilities for the last slot.
OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Director for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Sunday when I do final picks. I’ll have that all-important dive into Best Picture up next!
Though it’s been less than two weeks since my previous Oscar forecast, a lot has occurred in that relatively short time frame. The Golden Globes aired. The BAFTA long lists were unveiled. SAG Awards nominations came out as did the DGA. These developments and more (including various critics groups announcing winners) have reshaped the race as we approach Oscar nomination morning.
Those nominations will be known on Sunday, January 19th. That is two days after the planned January 17th announcement and the delay was made due to the wildfires ravaging southern California. This is no surprise as the fires have also delayed PGA nominations and the airdate of the Critics Choice Awards.
The first Oscar predictions of 2025 will be my penultimate one and the last one that ranks contenders in the various categories. My plan is to have my final predictions up on Wednesday, January 15th.
So what are the biggest developments over the last few days? Demi Moore’s Golden Globe victory in Actress (Musical or Comedy) for The Substance causes me to elevate her to #1 in my Actress rankings over Mikey Madison (Anora), who had been perched in the top position for many weeks. The Directors Guild usually matches the Oscars 4 for 5, but the fact that they left off Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) helps cement his Oscar exclusion. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), fresh off his Globe victory, returns to #1 position over Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) who missed at SAG.
There are performers who could benefit from SAG love. They include Pamela Anderson and Jamie Lee Curtis from The Last Showgirl, Jonathan Bailey in Wicked, and Jeremy Strong from The Apprentice. There are snubbed performers from SAG or who lost at the Globes whose Oscar inclusion seems more doubtful. The most notable example is Angelina Jolie (Maria) but the list also includes Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II), and Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez).
Indeed the Best Actress derby has been dramatically reshaped with Moore elevating from 3rd to 1st, Jolie dropping from 2nd to 6th, and Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) and Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) entering my predicted quintet over Jolie and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths).
More changes are present in Supporting Actor as Yura Borisov (Anora) enters my five with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) out. I have Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) still clinging to a nod though Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) appears hot on his heels.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Anora (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)
6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Substance (PR: 8) (E)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sing Sing (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (E)
12. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (+2)
13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-1)
14. September 5 (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (E)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (E)
8. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)
10. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (E)
10. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)
4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)
5. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
7. September 5 (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
A Different Man
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-2)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hit Man
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Kneecap (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Flow (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Universal Language (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Dahomey (PR: 10) (+1)
10. From Ground Zero (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)
3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 8) (E)
9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sugarcane (PR: 2) (E)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daughters (PR: 4) (E)
5. Porcelain War (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)
7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Dahomey (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Union (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Hollywoodgate (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Conclave (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (+1)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maria (PR: 4) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Wicked
Best Costume Design
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Substance (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wicked (PR: 6) (-3)
10. September 5 (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Nickel Boys
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+3)
4. A Different Man (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Waltzing with Brando (PR: 8) (E)
9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Challengers (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Emila Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Nosferatu (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Blitz (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (E)
4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)
7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Emila Pérez (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Wild Robot (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Alien: Romulus (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Better Man (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alien: Romulus (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Twisters (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)
That works out to these movies receiving these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
9 Nominations
Conclave
8 Nominations
Wicked
6 Nominations
Anora, A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two
5 Nominations
The Substance
4 Nominations
Gladiator II, Nosferatu
3 Nominations
Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
I’m Still Here, A Real Pain, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Porcelain War, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
This Wednesday (01/08), the Directors Guild of America reveals their five nominees for behind the camera achievement in 2024. The DGA is normally a reliable barometer to project 4 of the 5 eventual Oscar nominees. Over the past decade, the match has been that margin in eight of the years. For two of the years, the match was 3 for 5. That includes last year when Greta Gerwig (Barbie) and Alexander Payne (The Holdovers) made the DGA cut but Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) and Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) received Academy attention.
I believe there are two shoo-in nominees for the 77th ceremony in Brady Corbet for The Brutalist and Sean Baker for Anora. Furthermore, I see Edward Berger (Conclave) as really close to being an automatic pick.
Then it gets interesting. The DGA often prioritizes American pictures over foreign entries or foreign directors. We certainly saw that last year with Gerwig/Payne over Glazer/Triet. In 2021, Denis Villeneuve was in the DGA quintet for Dune while Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) replaced him in the Academy five. In 2022, it was Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness) vying for Oscar instead of DGA selection Joseph Kosinski for Top Gun: Maverick.
That’s why I wouldn’t pencil in Mohammad Rasoulof (The Seed of the Sacred Fig) or Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light) here. And that’s why being skeptical about Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) or Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) is warranted. Both could get in and both movies are over performing in various precursors. Pérez, it could be argued, is doing so by an even more impressive margin. That’s why I’m leaving Audiard in while Fargeat is barely on the outside looking in.
So who gets the fifth slot? I wouldn’t count out RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys or even James Mangold for A Complete Unknown or Jon M. Chu for Wicked (though I’m finding that one increasingly unlikely). I’m reminded that DGA also selects some filmmakers for blockbuster fare the Academy ignores. Gerwig for Barbie and Kosinski for Top Gun. Ridley Scott for The Martian.
And… Denis Villeneuve for Dune. I think history could repeat itself with Villeneuve in contention for the sequel and that’s the direction I’m going for DGA.
These are last Oscar predictions in calendar year 2024 and I’ll likely do the final forecast on Tuesday, January 14th before the nominations are revealed on Friday, January 17th. It got me wondering how accurate my projections were for the 96th Academy Awards covering 2023 at this point in the calendar. Turns out… I did a post on December 29th of last year. The results? That’s what I’ll focus on in this write-up while giving you my predictions for the next broadcast.
The quick version is that my December 29th, 2023 forecast yielded 79 of the eventual 105 nominees. That’s not far off from my eventual tally of 84 of 105 when the announcements were made in January 2024. This includes 10 for 10 (!) in Best Picture and 5 for 5 in Makeup & Hairstyling. I went 4 for 5 in 10 other competitions while getting 3 for 5 in eight other competitions. There wasn’t one category where I didn’t have the winner listed as a nominee… except for in Visual Effects (we’ll get to that at the bottom).
Let’s get to it with some chatter about my performance in the previous year to use a potential context for what’s to come.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)
7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Substance (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 13) (+1)
13. September 5 (PR: 12) (-1)
14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (E)
15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
10 for 10 on the Best Picture nominees and that includes listing eventual victor Oppenheimer at #1.
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)
10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jon M. Chu, Wicked
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5 and I correctly had Christopher Nolan’s direction of Oppenheimer listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – I had Greta Gerwig (Barbie) in over Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), who was listed in 8th position.
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2.Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Eventual winner Emma Stone (Poor Things) was listed in 2nd after Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon). I incorrectly had Greta Lee (Past Lives) nominated over Annette Bening (Nyad), who I had listed in ninth.
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. I had the winner Cillian Murphy of Oppenheimer listed second after Bradley Cooper from Maestro. Where I went wrong – I had Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) nominated over my #6 Colman Domingo (Rustin).
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)
9. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Joan Chen, Dídi
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. I correctly had Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – Julianne Moore (May December) and Rachel McAdams (Are You ThereGod? It’s Me, Margaret) in over Jodie Foster for Nyad (who I had in sixth) and America Ferrera in Barbie (who was 8th at that time).
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29 –
4 for 5. I correctly had Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) listed in first. Where I went wrong – I had Charles Melton (May December) being nominated over #7 Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction.
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)
5. September 5 (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (E)
8. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (E)
9. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (E)
10. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Winner The Holdovers was listed 2nd while I had Barbie ranked 1st. It would be moved into Adapted Screenplay shortly thereafter. Where I went wrong – listing Barbie instead of #7 Maestro.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)
7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (-1)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wicked (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. Per above, I had Barbie listed in Original instead of Adapted at that time. Winner American Fiction was slotted fourth. Where I went wrong – having Killers of the Flower Moon and All of Us Strangers instead of Barbie and #6 The Zone of Interest.
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (E)
5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kneecap (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Universal Language (PR: 9) (+2)
8. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Flow (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Dahomey (PR: 6) (-4)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. The Zone of Interest was correctly listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – The Taste of Things was predicted over #9 lo capitano.
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)
3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 8) (E)
9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Winner The Boy and the Heron was listed in 2nd. Where I went wrong – predicting The Peasants over #10 Robot Dreams.
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sugarcane (PR: 2) (E)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Daughters (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dahomey (PR: 5) (-1)
8. Union (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Porcelain War (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. 20 Days in Mariupol was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – Beyond Utopia and American Symphony were predicted over #9 Bobi Wine: The People’s President and unranked To Kill a Tiger.
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maria (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (E)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Anora
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had The Zone of Interest nominated over #10 El Conde.
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: 7) (-3)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Winner Poor Things was listed in 2nd (behind Barbie). Where I went wrong – The Color Purple getting nominated over #7 Napoleon.
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 9) (+3)
7. September 5 (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Challengers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Substance (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had Air and Barbie nominated over #6 The Holdovers and #8 Anatomy of a Fall.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. A Different Man (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Waltzing with Brando (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
5 for 5! Winner Poor Things was listed second behind Maestro.
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Challengers (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had The Zone of Interest and The Boy and the Heron nominated over #10 American Fiction and the unranked Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie was correctly in 1st. Where I went wrong – I had “Road to Freedom” from Rustin and “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple nominated over #6 “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony and #9 “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maria (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Blitz (PR: 8) (E)
9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+1)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Winner Poor Things was listed 2nd behind Barbie. Where I went wrong – The Color Purple getting nominated over #7 Napoleon.
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. A Complete Unknown (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)
7. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. I had winner The Zone of Interest listed fourth. Where I went wrong – Ferrari and Napoleon being nominated over #8 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning and #10 The Creator.
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wicked (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters (PR: 6) (E)
7. Better Man (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. My #4 Godzilla Minus One won. Where I went wrong – this is the one category where my #1 (Poor Things) ended up not getting nominated. That’s in addition to having Society of the Snow getting in. #7 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning and #10 Napoleon made the cut instead.
Whew. And that leaves the following pictures garnering these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
9 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
8 Nominations
Conclave
7 Nominations
Wicked
5 Nominations
Anora, The Substance
4 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Gladiator II, Sing Sing
3 Nominations
Maria, Nickel Boys
2 Nominations
The Girl with the Needle, Nosferatu, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
Alien: Romulus, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Hard Truths, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
My latest Oscar forecast follows the reveals for shortlists earlier this week where we now know the 15 finalists in International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, and Original Song. We were also given the 20 hopefuls in Original Score and ten pictures standing in Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects. I covered my reaction to the shortlists here:
Best Sound is the category most altered by the announcement of ten finalists. The Brutalist, which clings to my #1 ranking in Best Picture, falls out of Sound altogether while A Complete Unknown rises two spots to third position. That’s not the only significant development for the Bob Dylan biopic starring Timothée Chalamet. Three days before its opening, I have Unknown in my BP ten for the first time and that’s at the expense of A Real Pain. That’s not all. Edward Norton’s performance as Pete Seeger in the movie enters the Supporting Actor quintet with Yura Borisov (Anora) now on the outside looking in.
In Best Actress, that pesky fifth slot goes back to Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) over Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Hard Truths.
You can read all the movement below as I now have Emilia Pérez leading all nominees with 11 to The Brutalist‘s 10. I’ll have another update up post Christmas and pre-New Year’s!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Substance (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sing Sing (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (-1)
12. September 5 (PR: 13) (+1)
13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-1)
14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (E)
15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: PartTwo (PR: 6) (E)
7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR; 6) (E)
7. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. September 5 (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (E)
8. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (E)
9. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (E)
10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-1)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wicked (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (E)
5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dahomey (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Kneecap (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Flow (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Universal Language (PR: 9) (E)
10. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)
3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Daughters (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Dahomey (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)
7. Union (PR: 7) (E)
8. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 8) (E)
9. Porcelain War (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maria (PR: 8) (+4)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
Wicked
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Maria (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Blitz (PR: 10) (+3)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (E)
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (-4)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+3)
5. September 5 (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Challengers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Substance (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Wicked (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. A Different Man (PR: 4 (E)
5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Emila Pérez (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Maria (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Waltzing with Brando (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sasquatch Sunset
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+2)
4. The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (E)
5. Challengers (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nickel Boys
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 8) (+2)
7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Forbidden Road” from Better Man
“Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl
“Better Way to Live” from Kneecap
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Blitz (PR: 8) (E)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Substance
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Blitz (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-3)
7. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Alien: Romulus (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Brutalist
Nosferatu
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
The Substance
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Better Man (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Alien: Romulus (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Substance
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
And that works out to the following numbers of nominations for these films:
11 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
8 Nominations
Dune: Part Two, Wicked
7 Nominations
Conclave
5 Nominations
Anora, Sing Sing, The Substance
4 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Gladiator II
3 Nominations
Maria, Nickel Boys, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
The Girl with the Needle, Nosferatu, A Real Pain, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
1 Nomination
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Dahomey, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 