Oscar Predictions: Martha

Martha Stewart made some headlines this week for badmouthing her own Netflix documentary Martha, which hit the streamer on October 30th. It’s the latest celeb centered effort from R.J. Cutler, who was also behind Belushi, Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry, and Disney+’s upcoming Elton John: Never Too Late.

The noted and occasionally notorious TV personality and businesswoman disagrees with critics. The RT meter is at 92% with Metacritic at 69. As has been mentioned plenty of times on this blog, this growing subgenre has to break out in a major way to get the Academy’s attention. I wouldn’t expect that occur with this one. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Elton John: Never Too Late

Disney hopes that Elton John: Never Too Late is still standing among the five nominees for Documentary Feature come Oscar nomination time. Chronicling the legendary singer’s swan song concert tour, R.J. Cutler and Elton’s husband David Furnish direct. A November 15th limited theatrical release precedes the December 13th Disney+ streaming launch.

Co-director Cutler is no stranger to the celeb doc genre or awards attention. 1993’s The War Room about Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign was a nominee in the race. He also helmed 2021’s Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry and the upcoming Martha Stewart profile Martha (look for that Oscar Prediction post shortly).

Late started its screenings at the Toronto Film Festival. While mostly fresh, many reviews were far from gushing. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 71%. That’s probably not enough to land it a nomination or even to be on the shortlist.

Where this could pop up is in Original Song where the new track “Never Too Late” (a duet between Elton and Brandi Carlile) reportedly plays over the end credits. The movie’s subject is already a two-time Academy winner for his The Lion King and Rocketman ditties. His star power could get him in contention again though I’ve yet to predict it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

If I Stay Box Office Prediction

Summit Entertainment is the studio de jour for young adult flicks and they’ve got another one this Friday with If I Stay, based on the novel by Gayle Forman. The film centers on a teen played by Chloe Grace Moritz of Kick Ass fame dealing with love and loss and is directed by R.J. Cutler, who seems a bit out of his element because he’s known more for making political documentaries.

If I Stay would love to follow in the footsteps of an earlier pic this summer, The Fault in Our Stars. That seems unlikely to occur as it’s been curiously under marketed and the late summer release is often somewhat of a dumping ground for studios. If Stay can debut above $15 million, the studio should consider that a success. I wonder if it will even manage double digits. My prediction is that it will get there, but not by much and my estimate puts it in the same range as another YA movie, The Giver, from this past weekend.

If I Stay opening weekend prediction: $12.1 million

For my Sin City: A Dame to Kill For prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/17/sin-city-a-dame-to-kill-for-box-office-prediction/

For my When the Game Stands Tall prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/17/when-the-game-stands-tall-box-office-prediction/