Zoë Kravitz’s directorial debut Blink Twice and The Crow reboot make their way to multiplexes this weekend, but the top 3 may look familiar… albeit with a potential change at the top. We also have the faith-based drama The Forge (a spin-off of the surprise 2015 hit War Room) entering the fray. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:
The dog days of August are when newbies can struggle to find an audience. I have Blink and The Crow separated by about a million bucks with both falling under $10 million. Set to premiere on more screens, I’m giving Blink the slight edge for a fourth place finish with The Crow landing in fifth.
The Forge is a potential wild card. I wouldn’t be shocked if it cleared $10 million and contended for fourth or even third. Yet I have it just behind the other debuts for a sixth place showing.
Alien: Romulus started toward the higher end of expectations (more on that below). It also nabbed a better Cinemascore grade (B+) than the B’s generated by predecessors Prometheus and Alien: Covenant. In 2012, Prometheus fell a steep 59% in its sophomore outing while 2017’s Covenant took a 71% nosedive. I’ll say Romulus eases in the mid to upper 50s for a late teens second frame.
If Deadpool & Wolverine only experiences a mid 30s decline, the MCU juggernaut could rise back to #1 and that’s what I’m envisioning. It Ends with Us from Mrs. Deadpool aka Blake Lively should hold third position in the low teens.
Here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:
1. Deadpool & Wolverine
Predicted Gross: $19.2 million
2. Alien: Romulus
Predicted Gross: $17.8 million
3. It Ends with Us
Predicted Gross: $13.4 million
4. Blink Twice
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million
5. The Crow
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million
6. The Forge
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
Box Office Results (August 16-18)
Disney/20th Century Studios had another winner on their hands as Alien: Romulus easily got to 1st place with $42 million, ahead of my $35.2 million prediction. With mostly complimentary reviews, audiences were ready for a seventh series entry that built upon the $36 million start of Covenant seven summers ago. It did not reach the $51 million heights that Prometheus managed.
Deadpool & Wolverine slipped to second after three weeks in the pole position. The superhero mashup took in $30 million, right on target with my $29.5 million forecast for $546 million thus far.
It Ends with Us dwindled an understandable 52% with a third place $23.8 million finish. I went a little higher at $27.9 million as the romantic drama is nearing the century mark after ten days at $97 million.
Twisters was fourth with $10 million, in line with my $9.8 million forecast for a five-week tally of $238 million.
Finally, the 15th anniversary re-release of the stop-motion animated fantasy Coraline rounded out the top five with $9.8 million. I incorrectly didn’t factor it in my estimates. The extra cash brought its total since 2009 to $87 million.
The six Alien features that preceded Alien: Romulus in the last four and a half decades have yielded an impressive 11 Oscar nominations and 3 victories. Fede Àlvarez, best known for 2013’s Evil Dead remake and Don’t Breathe, directs the first entry in seven years as Romulus attacks theaters this weekend. Cailee Spaeny (who probably came fairly close to an Academy nom last year for Priscilla), David Jonsson, Archie Renaux, Isabela Merced, and Spike Fearn star.
Reviews are doling out praise for its vibe that many critics say closely resemble the classic first two tales (1979’s Alien and 1986’s Aliens). On the other hand, some write-ups say it relies too much on nostalgia. The RT score is 82% and that tops the scores of its four immediate predecessors and places it third behind the aforementioned genre landmarks.
Let’s take a quick trip through awards history with the series. The original Alien from Ridley Scott won Best Visual Effects and was nominated for Art Direction (losing to All That Jazz). James Cameron’s 1986 follow-up Aliens landed a whopping seven nods and took Visual Effects and Sound Effects Editing. The other handful of mentions were for Sigourney Weaver in Actress (who fell short to Marlee Matlin from Children of a Lesser God), Art Direction (A Room with a View won), Original Score (which went to Round Midnight), and Film Editing and Sound (both of which that year’s BP victor Platoon picked up). 1992’s Alien 3 was a Visual Effects nominee with Death Becomes Her grabbing the prize. Five years later, Alien: Resurrection went empty-handed in terms of mentions. 2012’s Prometheus returned Ridley Scott to the director’s chair and a Visual Effects nom occurred with Life of Pi victorious. Finally, 2017’s Alien Covenant did not factor into any race.
So where does that leave Romulus? The production design and visual effects are being noted. The latter is where it is likeliest to contend. That said it would be behind Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, and probably Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga already. There’s plenty of other contenders already out or scheduled for fall. Don’t be surprised if this is the second Alien saga to be left off the Academy’s ballots, but VE is feasible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My look back at the cinematic summers of 30, 20, and 10 years ago culminates with 2012. A decade ago, the Marvel Cinematic Universe went from a successful franchise to the phenomenal juggernaut that it remains today. That’s due to the release of a little something called The Avengers. On a side note, it’s worth mentioning that the biggest grosser 30 years ago (Batman Returns), two decades ago (Spider-Man), and in this post all share comic book roots.
Before we get to Iron Man and company, I’ll recount the other features in the top ten moneymakers before covering additional notable titles and some flops. If you missed my write-ups about the seasons of 1992 and 2002, you can find them here:
Some three decades after Alien terrified audiences, Ridley Scott returned to the franchise. However, this was more of a mixed bag in terms of critical and audience reaction. The production design and Michael Fassbender’s performance were praised while the script drew its share of critics. Nevertheless Scott would be back in the mix five years later with Alien: Covenant.
9. Snow White and the Huntsman
Domestic Gross: $155 million
Hot off the Twilight franchise and hot off playing Thor in The Avengers, Kristen Stewart and Chris Hemsworth battled Prometheus costar Charlize Theron’s evil stepmom in this fantasy adventure. Reviews were so-so but it performed well enough to warrant a less appreciated prequel The Huntsman: Winter’s War in 2016.
8. Ice Age: Continental Drift
Domestic Gross: $161 million
The fourth entry in the animated franchise featuring the vocal stylings of Ray Romano and John Leguizamo kept the grosses hot. Sequel Collision Course would follow four years later.
7. Men in Black 3
Domestic Gross: $179 million
The third teaming of Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones (with Josh Brolin playing a convincing younger version of him) earned $11 million less than 2002’s part II. That sequel made less than the 1997 original. The series was revamped in 2019 with Men in Black: International with none other than Chris Hemsworth, but audiences tuned out.
6. Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted
Domestic Gross: $216 million
Ben Stiller and Chris Rock returned for the third time voicing their respective lion and zebra. Spin-off Penguins of Madagascar came out two years later while a proper fourth entry never materialized from DreamWorks.
5. Ted
Domestic Gross: $218 million
Moving from Fox’s hugely successful animated sitcom Family Guy the big screen, Seth MacFarlane’s story of Mark Wahlberg and his crude talking bear Ted was the breakout comedy of the season. Follow-ups A Million Ways to Die in the West and the Ted sequel were not as well received.
4. Brave
Domestic Gross: $237 million
The first Pixar film led by a female hero is also the inaugural studio entry (co)directed by a woman. It would go on to win Best Animated Feature at the Oscars.
3. The Amazing Spider-Man
Domestic Gross: $262 million
After not moving forward with a fourth title directed by Sam Raimi and starring Tobey Maguire, the Spidey franchise was rebooted with Marc Webb behind the camera and Andrew Garfield donning the red. The dollars followed although reviews were mixed and a 2014 sequel was widely considered a disappointment.
2. The Dark Knight Rises
Domestic Gross: $448 million
While perhaps not quite reaching the heights of 2008’s The Dark Knight, the culmination to Christopher Nolan’s trilogy sent Christian Bale’s Caped Crusader off in stirring fashion and with hugely profitable earnings.
1. The Avengers
Domestic Gross: $623 million
Setting record after record upon release, the melding of Iron Man, Thor, Captain America, Hulk, Black Widow, and Hawkeye transfixed filmgoers. It’s been Marvel’s world and we’ve been living in it ever since.
And now for some other pics worthy of discussion:
Magic Mike
Domestic Gross: $113 million
Steven Soderbergh’s saga of male exotic dancers was based loosely on Channing Tatum’s real life experiences. It turned him into a superstar while giving Matthew McConaughey a memorable showcase. The micro budgeted pic (a reported $7 million) spawned a 2015 sequel and there’s a third scheduled to hit HBO Max next year.
The Bourne Legacy
Domestic Gross: $113 million
Audiences weren’t clamoring for Jeremy Renner to replace Matt Damon in this franchise, but the stateside and overseas grosses were still pretty acceptable. That said, Renner’s tenure lasted this pic and this pic only.
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Domestic Gross: $46 million
While it performed even better overseas, this British import with Judi Dench was a sleeper hit stateside that begat a 2015 sequel.
Moonrise Kingdom
Domestic Gross: $45 million
Wes Anderson scored with critics and crowds with this coming-of-age dramedy that premiered at Cannes and then found an audience in the weeks that followed.
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Domestic Gross: $12 million
This indie drama from Benh Zeitlin was truly a little movie that could. Shot for under $2 million, it eventually nabbed Oscar nods for Picture, Director, Actress (Quvanzhane Wallis at age 9), and Adapted Screenplay.
They’re not all winners so let’s get into some critical and/or commercial failures from the period:
Dark Shadows
Domestic Gross: $79 million
Johnny Depp’s box office happy days were beginning to fade as his 8th collaboration with Tim Burton was perhaps the least memorable. This horror comedy failed to enlighten viewers.
Battleship
Domestic Gross: $65 million
Action fans weren’t taken with this Peter Berg directed board game adaptation starring Liam Neeson and Rihanna with a bloated budget of over $200 million.
Total Recall
Domestic Gross: $58 million
And your action sci-fi fans weren’t signing up for Colin Farrell taking over for Arnold Schwarzenegger in this unneeded remake.
Rock of Ages
Domestic Gross: $38 million
Based on the Broadway musical, there was a deaf ear turned to this adaptation despite Tom Cruise getting solid notices for his performance. Lucky for him, he’d rule this current summer with Top Gun: Maverick.
That’s My Boy
Domestic Gross: $36 million
Adam Sandler and Andy Samberg’s comedic partnership drew a 20% Tomatoes meter and ambivalence from usually devoted Sandler fans.
The Watch
Domestic Gross: $35 million
That wasn’t the only high-profile comedic flop as this sci-fi mashup with Ben Stiller, Vince Vaughn, and Jonah Hill fared even worse in numbers and rotten reviews (17% RT).
And that’ll close it out, ladies and gents! It’s been a pleasure revising these cinematic seasons of days past.
Ridley Scott is now nearly 40 years into his Alien franchise which started with his 1979 classic and preceded Alien: Covenant with the often confounding Prometheus from 2012. Scott has now made half of the six series entries. In many ways, this latest one is the least effective of all. It’s not bad and I’d say none of them have been (middling, yes). Covenant, however, lies in a strange place. The dark visual splendor and occasional jump horror scares are present at times. Memorable characters are not and that’s different than when we were rolling with Ripley (Sigourney Weaver) and others. The film is indeed a sequel to Prometheus, which was more of an existential exercise about where we come from and not a traditional xenomorph flick. Covenant wants to cover that territory, as well as bringing H.R. Geiger’s famed creature more in the frame.
There’s another crew in deep space and they’re on a colonization mission occurring a decade after the events of Prometheus. The membership of this crew (the Covenant) differs from previous ones in that they’re married couples. When a malfunction on the ship wakes them from their long slumber, they must deal with that quickly. A longer term problem is an unexpected xenomorph presence onboard which soon causes a growing widow population.
Katherine Waterston is Daniels and she’s basically new Ripley, but not as interesting. Danny McBride brings a little gravitas to the party as Tennessee, the ship’s pilot. Billy Crudup is the anointed captain. Yet it’s a Prometheus holdover that gets the most attention. Michael Fassbender is back as David, the android who stood out in the predecessor. When the crew must land on a planet they weren’t supposed to, they find him. Finding out what he’s been up to since the end of Prometheus takes up plenty of screen time. Fassbender doubles his time as he also plays Walter, a newer model droid that part of the Covenant crew. Their dynamic is somewhat intriguing in moments, but I never got over one big issue. I simply wasn’t begging for the unanswered Prometheus questions to be filled in, as that picture didn’t ultimately warrant the curiosity.
The talented Mr. Ridley never struggles to master production design and visuals. True here. And he strives to bring the gory action that we previously expected from this franchise. It’s here, but the mayhem is inflicted upon characters we won’t remember for long and with a xenomorph who’s popped out of better written people before.
Five years after director Ridley Scott returned to the franchise that got his career going, he’s back behind the camera again for Alien: Covenant next weekend. This is the sixth installment in the series that Scott began 38 years ago with the beloved Alien.
That love did not quite extend to 2012’s Prometheus, which drew mixed audience and critical response. Michael Fassbender returns as android Walter with a cast including Katherine Waterston, Billy Crudup, Danny McBride, Demian Bichir, reported return appearances from Noomi Repace and Guy Pearce, and James Franco apparently.
Five years ago, Prometheus opened to $51 million but its so-so buzz meant a front loaded overall gross of $126M. Reviews for Covenant have been mostly solid and it stands at 75% on Rotten Tomatoes. One encouraging sign: several critics have noted this gets the franchise back to its horror roots unlike its predecessor.
It’s also said to be a direct sequel to Prometheus and one wonders if the bad taste it left in some mouths will prevent this from topping it. I’ll predict Covenant does not reach the $50M+ achieved half a decade ago and that mid 40s seems more feasible.
Alien: Covenant opening weekend prediction: $44.6 million
For my Diary of a Wimpy Kid, The Long Haul prediction, click here:
The 2015 Summer Movie Season officially kicks off two weeks from today when Avengers: Age of Ultron blasts into theaters. It will compete for the largest domestic opening of all time (where it needs to beat its predecessor) and is highly likely to be the season’s highest earner. That got me to thinking – while Ultron is poised to gross $500 million or higher, it’s been the $100 million mark that studios still like to brag about. This prompted me to look at the past five summer flick seasons and how many pictures reached that milestone.
In 2010, it was 13 movies that reached the mark: Toy Story 3, Iron Man 2, Twilight Saga: Eclipse, Inception, Despicable Me, Shrek Forever After, The Karate Kid, Grown Ups, The Last Airbender, The Other Guys, Salt, Robin Hood, and The Expendables.
Things improved in 2011 with 18 films reaching the century club: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, The Hangover Part II, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, Cars 2, Thor, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Captain America: First Avenger, The Help, Bridesmaids, Kung Fu Panda 2, X-Men: First Class, The Smurfs, Super 8, Horrible Bosses, Green Lantern, Bad Teacher, and Cowboys and Aliens.
The low mark was the following year in 2012 with just 12: The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, The Amazing Spider-Man, Brave, Ted, Madagascar 3, Men in Black 3, Ice Age: Continental Drift, Snow White and the Huntsman, Prometheus, Magic Mike, and The Bourne Legacy.
Yet the high mark came the following summer in 2013 with 19: Iron Man 3, Despicable Me 2, Man of Steel, Monsters University, Fast and Furious 6, Star Trek Into Darkness, World War Z, The Heat, We’re the Millers, The Great Gatsby, The Conjuring, Grown Ups 2, The Wolverine, Now You See Me, Lee Daniels’ The Butler, The Hangover Part III, Epic, Pacific Rim, and This is the End.
2014 dipped with 14: Guardians of the Galaxy, Transformers: Age of Extinction, Maleficent, X-Men: Days of Future Past, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Godzilla, 22 Jump Street, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Neighbors, Lucy, The Fault in Our Stars, and Edge of Tomorrow.
That averages out to 15 pictures earning $100M plus per summer over this decade.
So where do I have 2015 matching up? Not breaking records, but in good shape. My predictions for the year’s $100M earners is 16 and they are as follows (in order of release date): Avengers: Age of Ultron, Mad Max: Fury Road, Pitch Perfect 2, Tomorrowland, San Andreas, Spy, Jurassic World, Inside Out, Ted 2, Magic Mike XXL, Terminator: Genisys, Minions, Ant-Man, Trainwreck, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation, and Fantastic Four.
Of course, there’s always sleepers. And there’s others that I could have predicted but think will fall short: the Reese Witherspoon/Sofia Vergara comedy Hot Pursuit, horror remake Poltergeist, the film version of Entourage, the Adam Sandler video game inspired action comedy Pixels, the Vacation reboot, and the NWA biopic Straight Outta Compton are among them.
As predicted, summer 2015 should see its number of century club inductees on the slightly high end without reaching the heights of 2013. And as always, you’ll see box office predictions every Saturday from me on each and every one of ’em!
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