98th Academy Awards Predictions: January 13th Edition

It has been nearly a month (!) since my last Oscar predictions on December 17th and a whole lotta activity has happened since. The Critics Choice and Golden Globe Awards aired. SAG Actor noms and BAFTA long lists were unveiled. The Directors and Producers Guild gave us their contenders. And we arrive at my penultimate picks for the 98th Academy Awards. You can expect my final predictions on Sunday or Monday.

So what’s changed since the week before Christmas? Well, you have to read below for that!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+2)

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (E)

12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Sirāt (PR: 13) (E)

14. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

15. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (E)

5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Oliver Laxe, Sirāt (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Clint Bentley, Train Dreams

Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (E)

10. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tessa Thompson, Hedda

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 6) (-1)

8. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)

9. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

10. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Josh O’Connor, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)

3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Weapons (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-3)

10. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nuremberg (PR: 8) (E)

9. Pillion (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Hedda

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Sirāt (PR: 4) (E)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)

8. Belén (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sound of Falling (PR: 10) (+1)

10. All That’s Left of You (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The President’s Cake

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. In Your Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

7. Scarlet (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Endless Cookie (PR: 8) (E)

9. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (+1)

4. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Seeds (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 10) (E)

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Sirāt (PR: 9) (E)

10. Weapons (PR: 10) (E)

Bst Cinematography

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sirāt (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Bugonia (PR: 9) (E)

10. F1 (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hedda (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Sirāt

No Other Choice

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Kokuho (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Ugly Stepsister (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Alto Knights (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nuremberg (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sirāt (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (+1)

4. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Our Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

“Drive” from F1

“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Phoenician Scheme

Hedda

The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. F1 (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)

3. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sirāt (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (E)

10. Superman (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. F1 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Superman (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Lost Bus (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilties:

6. Sinners (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Tron: Ares (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jurassic World: Rebirth (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Electric State (PR: 10) (E)

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

One Battle After Another

13 Nominations

Sinners

10 Nominations

Hamnet

9 Nominations

Frankenstein, Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

Marty Supreme

5 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

4 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams

3 Nominations

Bugonia, F1, Sirāt

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, KPop Demon Hunters

1 Nomination

Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kokuho, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Lost Bus, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The Smashing Machine, Superman, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Weapons, Zootopia 2

Oscars: The Case of Sean Baker for Anora

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP nominees and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the BP contenders and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our initial entry in Best Director and that’s Sean Baker for Anora.

Previous Oscar Directing Nominations:

None

The Case for Sean Baker:

After winning Best Picture at PGA and Critics Choice last weekend, Anora became the frontrunner for the same prize at the Oscars. For Mr. Baker, his chances went way up after taking the Directors Guild of America (DGA) award on Saturday. For context, 21 of the 24 DGA victors in the 21st century have taken done the same from the Academy. He scored noms at BAFTA, Critics Choice, and the Golden Globes.

The Case Against Sean Baker:

He lost that Golden Globe to Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) and Jon M. Chu (Wicked) was the unexpected recipient at Critics Choice. While Chu isn’t nominated for the Oscar, voters could opt for Corbet’s more epic in nature project and honor Baker in Original Screenplay. Since he is the editor of Anora, he could also win that gold statue so that’s another at bat.

The Verdict:

For quite some time, it looked like Baker would be a first-time Academy honoree in Screenplay and perhaps Screenplay only. Now he’s in contention for four in one night with Best Picture, Director, Screenplay, and Editing. His chances for the filmmaking competition skyrocketed after DGA.

My Case Of posts will continue with our second hopeful in Best Actress and that’s Karla Sofia Gascón in Emilia Pérez…

That should be an interesting post.

36th PGA Awards Reaction: The Producers Anoint Anora

The Producers Guild of America (PGA) provided a weekend hat trick for Sean Baker’s Anora as it won their top award over my pick of The Brutalist. This is the same narrative that occurred Friday evening when it took Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards over Brady Corbet’s epic immigrant drama. Also on Saturday night, Baker was selected as the Directors Guild of America recipient over Corbet. As discussed in the blog post recounting that ceremony, the DGA and Oscar’s Best Director nearly always match.

In one weekend, Anora became the Academy’s frontrunner for Best Picture. There’s no other logical way to look at it. With Emilia Pérez significantly weakened due to Karla Sofia Gascón’s recent controversies and A Complete Unknown, Conclave, and Wicked yet to grab any major BP precursors, Anora is elevated with CCA/PGA/DGA in a 48 hour period. Wicked still could win SAG in a couple of weeks and so could Conclave. I also feel the latter is a possibility for BP at BAFTA. The Brutalist is also a threat at the British equivalent of the Oscars. In other words, Best Picture isn’t over but Anora is your new leader (or continued leader if you had it in first). I have had The Brutalist in that position for months and that’s no longer the case.

As for the PGA’s other two categories, The Wild Robot is your Animated Theatrical Motion Picture while Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (not up at Oscar) is the documentary victor. I correctly called those two competitions.

Keep an eye on the blog throughout the coming days as I continue to post Case Of Oscar write-ups. I’ll also have BAFTA winner predictions up later this week!

36th Producers Guild of America Awards Winner Predictions

Seven of the last 10 PGA top prize winners ended up winning Best Picture at the Oscars. The 36th edition of their awards ceremony takes place Saturday and the guild also honors documentary and animated features.

Let’s walk through all 3 races with my predicted winner and a runner-up and some brief commentary.

Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance, Wicked

In this wide open BP derby, this is where momentum could truly be achieved (coupled with Critics Choice this weekend). I believe Dune, Pain, September, and Substance are the only nominees with no real shot. I’ve been consistent with The Brutalist being slotted first in my BP rankings over the last several weeks. I’ll stay with that, but if it comes up short here… the narrative could change.

PREDICTED WINNER: The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez

Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures

Flow, Inside Out 2, Moana 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Like this category at other awards shows, this should come to Flow v. Robot and I’m giving the latter an edge (unlike the Globes where I correctly called Flow).

PREDICTED WINNER: The Wild Robot

Runner-Up: Flow

Outstanding Producer of Documentrary Theatrical Motion Pictures

Gaucho Gaucho, Mediha, Mountain Queen: The Summits of Lhakpa Sherpa, Porcelain War, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, We Will Dance Again

PGA often marches to their own drum with the docs. That’s true this year as Porcelain War is the only feature listed among this group that’s also up for Oscar. Therefore it might be the safer bet, but I’m going with Super/Man.

PREDICTED WINNER: Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story

Runner-Up: Porcelain War

I’ll have a recap up this weekend!

Oscars – The Case of Dune: Part Two

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the first four features for BP and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. The fifth is Dune: Part Two.

The Case for Dune: Part Two:

If the Academy wants to honor one of the most widely seen pics, Dune is second only to Wicked in that particular race. The sci-fi sequel stands at $714 million worldwide compared to Wicked‘s $718 million (and growing). Denis Villeneuve’s epic continuation of Frank Herbert’s novels made the BP cut at PGA, Critics Choice, and Golden Globes.

The Case Against Dune: Part Two:

The misses are more glaring. Dune‘s additional Academy nods (Cinematography, Production Design, Sound, Visual Effects) bring its total to five compared to the original’s 10. For perspective, part one from 2021 won six golden guys. Villeneuve didn’t get in Best Director (like with its predecessor) and the screenplay isn’t honored. Beyond what the Academy did, Dune failed to get into the BAFTA derby and Villeneuve was snubbed at the Directors Guild (unlike what occurred three years ago).

The Verdict:

In my previous Case Of posts for Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, and Conclave, I’ve given them all at least a shot at taking the top prize. Dune: Part Two is the first entry where I don’t believe winning is a possibility.

My Case Of posts will continue with Emilia Pérez…

Oscars: The Case of Anora

Oscars: The Case of The Brutalist

Oscars: The Case of A Complete Unknown

Oscars: The Case of Conclave

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Picture Race

My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives TOMORROW prior to the announcement on Thursday, January 23rd (pushed back due to the California wildfires). Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.

The last post in this series is Best Picture. If you missed my write-ups for the acting derbies and director, you can access them here:

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Director Race

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actress Race

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actor Race

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actress Race

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actor Race

As I’ve mentioned several times lately, I believe there’s an octet of movies that have punched their ticket to the BP show. Let’s call them the easy 8. If any of these pictures miss the Best Picture cut at this point, it would be a major surprise. Four of them (Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez) have shown up in five of the key precursors: Golden Globes, BAFTA, PGA, Critics Choice and SAG.

Two more (The Brutalist, Wicked) managed four.

Two more (Dune: Part Two, The Substance) were nominated in three. No other 2024 motion pictures had three or more mentions.

Now we have to consider the final two slots and that’s where it gets tricky. Before we do, let’s take a moment to recognize some efforts that won’t make the ultimate dance. Some of them could show up in tech races or see some of their actors nominated. Others didn’t cut the mustard with critics and audiences. A lot of these titles were, at some juncture, listed in my top 25 possibilities as I forecasted the race throughout the year. They won’t be seen tomorrow in my BP list. We’re talking about Joker: Folie à Deux and Gladiator II and Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. Yes, I once saw Megalopolis as a viable candidate. There’s The Piano Lesson, The Apprentice, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night, Civil War, Kinds of Kindness, Maria, and The End.

That leaves me with 8 pictures to ponder for 2 spots. Unlike my previous posts on Best Director and the actors, I won’t be ranking these possibilities. After all, I gotta leave a little suspense for my final picks tomorrow, right? Nevertheless let’s walk through them one by one with some commentary.

All We Imagine as Light would be a threat to win Best International Feature Film had India submitted it as its contender. It was not to be and the Academy could make up for it in BP. Yet it hasn’t shown up in any of the 5 aforementioned precursors.

Challengers only has a Musical or Comedy nod from the Globes in its favor. A PGA nomination (which I wrongly predicted) didn’t materialize. This is a tough sell.

Nickel Boys has Golden Globe and Critics Choice noms on the resume. Many critics have it at the top of their 2024 best of, but it’s missed other key competitions.

Nosferatu has gotten some “spoiler” ink lately with some saying it could be this year’s Nightmare Alley. That pic from 2021 at least had the Critics Choice nod whereas Nosferatu didn’t show up in the quintet of precursors.

A Real Pain has undoubtedly had an up and down journey on the road to a potential BP nomination. It made the Globe cut and then missed Critics Choice and BAFTA. That left it down and out in the eyes of many and I dropped it from my 10. This week it popped back up at PGA and its fortunes could be stronger.

The Seed of the Sacred Fig should receive an International Feature Film nom. It has not gotten into the precursors for Picture though. Though I didn’t say I’d rank these eight, this is unquestionably at or near the bottom of these hopefuls.

September 5, like A Real Pain, has been buoyed by a PGA spot and it also made the Globes. Yet its exclusions at BAFTA and Critics Choice are noteworthy.

Sing Sing has had a rocky preseason, especially missing SAG and the Globes. While Colman Domingo seems locked in for Best Actor, the Academy will really need to fall for this. Of the five precursors, this only received Critics Choice.

There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Picture for the 97th Academy Awards. After months of endless speculation, you’ll know my final predictions in about 24 hours!

97th Academy Awards Predictions: January 10th Edition

Though it’s been less than two weeks since my previous Oscar forecast, a lot has occurred in that relatively short time frame. The Golden Globes aired. The BAFTA long lists were unveiled. SAG Awards nominations came out as did the DGA. These developments and more (including various critics groups announcing winners) have reshaped the race as we approach Oscar nomination morning.

Those nominations will be known on Sunday, January 19th. That is two days after the planned January 17th announcement and the delay was made due to the wildfires ravaging southern California. This is no surprise as the fires have also delayed PGA nominations and the airdate of the Critics Choice Awards.

The first Oscar predictions of 2025 will be my penultimate one and the last one that ranks contenders in the various categories. My plan is to have my final predictions up on Wednesday, January 15th.

So what are the biggest developments over the last few days? Demi Moore’s Golden Globe victory in Actress (Musical or Comedy) for The Substance causes me to elevate her to #1 in my Actress rankings over Mikey Madison (Anora), who had been perched in the top position for many weeks. The Directors Guild usually matches the Oscars 4 for 5, but the fact that they left off Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) helps cement his Oscar exclusion. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), fresh off his Globe victory, returns to #1 position over Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) who missed at SAG.

There are performers who could benefit from SAG love. They include Pamela Anderson and Jamie Lee Curtis from The Last Showgirl, Jonathan Bailey in Wicked, and Jeremy Strong from The Apprentice. There are snubbed performers from SAG or who lost at the Globes whose Oscar inclusion seems more doubtful. The most notable example is Angelina Jolie (Maria) but the list also includes Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II), and Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez).

Indeed the Best Actress derby has been dramatically reshaped with Moore elevating from 3rd to 1st, Jolie dropping from 2nd to 6th, and Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) and Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) entering my predicted quintet over Jolie and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths).

More changes are present in Supporting Actor as Yura Borisov (Anora) enters my five with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) out. I have Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) still clinging to a nod though Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) appears hot on his heels.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Anora (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)

6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Substance (PR: 8) (E)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sing Sing (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (E)

12. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (+2)

13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-1)

14. September 5 (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nosferatu

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (E)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (E)

8. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)

10. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (E)

10. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, Nightbitch

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)

5. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

7. September 5 (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

A Different Man

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-2)

8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hit Man

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Kneecap (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Flow (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Universal Language (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Dahomey (PR: 10) (+1)

10. From Ground Zero (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)

3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 8) (E)

9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)

10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sugarcane (PR: 2) (E)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)

4. Daughters (PR: 4) (E)

5. Porcelain War (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)

7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Dahomey (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Union (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Hollywoodgate (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Conclave (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (+1)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Maria (PR: 4) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Wicked

Best Costume Design

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

5. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Substance (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wicked (PR: 6) (-3)

10. September 5 (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Nickel Boys

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+3)

4. A Different Man (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

8. Waltzing with Brando (PR: 8) (E)

9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Challengers (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Emila Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Nosferatu (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Blitz (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (E)

4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)

7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Emila Pérez (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Wild Robot (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Alien: Romulus (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Better Man (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Alien: Romulus (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Twisters (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)

That works out to these movies receiving these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

10 Nominations

The Brutalist

9 Nominations

Conclave

8 Nominations

Wicked

6 Nominations

Anora, A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two

5 Nominations

The Substance

4 Nominations

Gladiator II, Nosferatu

3 Nominations

Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

I’m Still Here, A Real Pain, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

All We Imagine as Light, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Porcelain War, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

36th PGA Awards Nominations Predictions

The Producers Guild of America (PGA) release their contenders for top film as well as animated offering this Sunday, January 12th. Last year, the PGA managed to match Oscar 10 for 10 in terms of Best Picture nominees.

That could certainly happen again and I believe eight movies are safe bets for PGA (and Oscar) inclusion: Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Substance, and Wicked.

After that it gets a little tricky. It is not out of the ordinary for PGA to nominate more mainstream material that the Academy ignores in BP. Examples over the past decade include Gone Girl, Straight Outta Compton, Deadpool, Wonder Woman, Crazy Rich Asians, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, and Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery.

What could fit that description for PGA? There aren’t a lot of surefire contenders. I don’t see Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga or Gladiator II having enough juice to get into the 10. Same for Inside Out 2. I do think Challengers or Nosferatu could sneak in and I’m giving an edge to the former.

Films such as A Real Pain, September 5, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, or All We Imagine as Light could really benefit from a slot at PGA. So too could Nickel Boys and Sing Sing. Both of them are (currently) in my Oscar ten. I’ll give Nickel the slight edge over Sing at PGA.

PGA also honors animated pics and they often prioritize blockbuster fare over smaller titles. That’s why you could see Despicable Me 4, Moana 2, or Transformers One represented here over Memoir of a Snail or even Flow.

Here’s my predictions in the two categories with an alternate in each:

Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures

Anora

The Brutalist

Challengers

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

Nickel Boys

The Substance

Wicked

Alternate – Sing Sing

Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures

Despicable Me 4

Flow

Inside Out 2

Moana 2

The Wild Robot

Alternate – Transformers One

35th PGA Awards Winner Predictions

A weekend of precursors culminates on Sunday with the 35th PGA Awards. The 10 nominees in the top race at PGA happen to match the 10 that Oscar put up in Best Picture. There’s two other categories to consider with animated fare and docs. I will walk through all three with a winner prediction and a runner-up possibility.

Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures

Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Let’s not make this complicated, shall we? Oppenheimer should have no trouble taking this as it’s taken all key precursors. 7 of the last 10 PGA victors have ended up as the Academy’s BP (the last diversion was 2019 when 1917 took PGA and Parasite was BP).

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Barbie

Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

The Boy and the Heron has made this category one to watch with Globe and BAFTA trophies. That being said, I think Spidey has the edge with PGA.

Predicted Winner: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron

Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures

Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, The Disappearance of Shere Hite, The Mother of All Lies, Smoke Sauna Sisterhood, Squaring the Circle (The Story of Hipgnosis)

Mariupol has cleaned up on its way to a likely Oscar victory and it should emerge here.

Predicted Winner: 20 Days in Mariupol

Runner-Up: American Symphony

I’ll have a recap up on the blog after the show on Sunday!

Oscars: The Case of The Zone of Interest

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered nine of the BP nominees and they are linked at the bottom. This category’s posts conclude with Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest. Write-ups for the others are on deck!

The Case for The Zone of Interest:

After acclaimed features including Birth and Under the Skin, Glazer enters the awards zone with Interest. The German historical drama managed five nominations including Director, Adapted Screenplay, International Feature Film, and Sound. It’s had an impressive run at precursor nominations including the Globes in Drama and the PGA ten.

The Case Against The Zone of Interest:

Anatomy of a Fall has outshined it in victories with foreign races, including at the Globes and Critics Choice. It was definitely a question mark whether this would even make the cut at BP.

The Verdict:

Due to France choosing to submit The Taste of Things instead of Anatomy, Interest is the heavy favorite to take International Feature Film. That should be the only statue it picks up during the ceremony.

My Case Of posts will continue with Annette Bening in Nyad…

Oscars: The Case of American Fiction

Oscars: The Case of Anatomy of a Fall

Oscars: The Case of Barbie

Oscars: The Case of The Holdovers

Oscars: The Case of Killers of the Flower Moon

Oscars: The Case of Maestro

Oscars: The Case of Oppenheimer

Oscars: The Case of Past Lives

Oscars: The Case of Poor Things

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this: