Oscar Predictions – Predator: Badlands

Predator: Badlands is the ninth overall installment in the nearly 40-year-old franchise and the third in a row from director Dan Trachtenberg. Opening Friday, it follows up 2022’s Prey and this summer’s Predator: Killer of Killers. Elle Fanning stars alongside Dimitrius Schuster-Koloamatangi and Mike Homik.

Prey and Killers received impressive reviews with respective 94% and 95% Tomato meters and 71/78 scores on Metacritic. Badlands is lagging behind though not by much with 88% on RT and 69 for Meta.

In 1987, Predator starring the future Governors of California and Minnesota had a 50% chance to win Best Visual Effects, but lost to sole competitor Innerspace. VE is the only race where Badlands could materialize. If so, it would continue a recent trend of entries in long existing franchises (No Time to Die, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Alien: Romulus) nabbing slots. I’ve yet to list this in my top 10 possibilities. So while I’m skeptical it makes the quintet, it is not an impossibility and don’t be surprised if it pops up in the bottom rungs of my VE hopefuls when I do my next update. My Oscar prediction posts will continue…

Predator: Badlands Box Office Prediction

Predator: Badlands looks to awaken a dormant box office when it debuts November 7th. It marks the ninth overall feature in the nearly 40-year-old franchise that began with the Arnold Schwarzenegger classic. Dan Trachtenberg directs his second pic in the series after helming the 2022’s Prey and the animated Predator: Killer of Killers back in June. Both were acclaimed and they premiered via streaming on Hulu. Elle Fanning stars alongside Dimitrius Schuster-Koloamatangi and Mike Homik.

Technically AVP: Alien vs. Predator holds the record for best start among the films at $38 million back in 2004. As far as Predator titles without an iconic sparring partner, 2010’s Predators and 2018’s The Predator experienced virtually identical openings of $24.7 and $24.6 million, respectively.

Early word-of-mouth for Badlands is solid yet some fans may choose to wait for to Disney+/Hulu. It could manage to top expectations because there’s not much else out there. I also wouldn’t be surprised at all if it sees a mid 20s output similar to what we witnessed in 2010 and 2018 and that would be considered a letdown. I’ll give it slightly more.

Predator: Badlands opening weekend prediction: $27.6 million

For my Christy prediction, click here:

Oscar Predictions – Predator: Killer of Killers

In 2022, Dan Trachtenberg took over the Predator franchise after invigorating the Cloverfield series with 10 Cloverfield Lane. The result was the acclaimed Hulu prequel Prey. This November, futuristic follow-up Predator: Badlands will touch down in theaters. In the meantime, Trachtenberg has helmed the R-rated animated Predator: Killer of Killers which is available for your streaming pleasure via Hulu and Disney+ this weekend.

Prey was a pleasantly bloody surprise to most critics and Killers can proclaim the same. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 98% with Metacritic at 78 with reviewers praising the anthology tale. Is it enough that the Academy would consider this for a Best Animated Feature slot? If so, it would mark the franchise’s second nom after the 1987 original was up for Visual Effects and lost to Innerspace.

Even with the high marks, I just don’t see this contending at the moment. Let’s see how the competition shakes out for the rest of the year though. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Alien: Romulus Box Office Prediction

Fede Álvarez, best known for his Evil Dead remake and Don’t Breathe, takes over a classic 45-year-old franchise when Alien: Romulus touches down on August 16th. Set between the events of Alien and Aliens, the seventh entry in the series (not counting those two battles with Predator) features Civil War‘s Cailee Spaeny, David Jonsson, Archie Renaux, Isabela Merced, and Spike Fearn.

Originally conceived as a Hulu streaming release, 20th Century Studios rethought their strategy to allow a summer theatrical bow. This is the first Alien feature in seven years since Ridley Scott’s Alien: Covenant and the first since Disney acquired the property.

If Romulus matched the $36 million that Covenant started off with, that should be considered a win. I say that because the predecessor plummeted after its first weekend and grossed an underwhelming $74 million overall domestically.

I’ll project that this gets a bit under that starting Covenant figure as it’ll hope to have sturdier legs in subsequent weekends.

Alien: Romulus opening weekend prediction: $35.2 million

For my Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure prediction, click here:

Prey Review

Touching down 35 years after the glistening biceps and grisly kills of Predator, Prey puts the “pre” in prequel by taking us all the way back to 1719. Our setting is the Northern Great Plains in a mountainous region inhabited by a Comanche Indian tribe. The elements of the time are their own enemy and so is the wildlife roaming free. This includes lions and bears of the somewhat unconvincing CG variety. There’s also a gruesome scene where buffaloes earn their wings.

Dan Trachtenberg’s film poses the question – what if we dropped one of those Predators in this unique cinematic universe? The answer is a clever spin on the franchise that marks its own territory. It limits the callbacks to the original so that when they surface, they’re appreciated. The screenplay isn’t muddied by burying itself in nostalgia and that’s something plenty of other series can’t claim as of late.

There are no semiautomatic weapons or choppas for Naru (Amber Midthunder), a young warrior who longs to be a hunter. Her brother Taabe (Dakota Beavers) is considered one of the best. It’s clear that her community simply doesn’t view her as capable of doing the same. She gets the chance when that extraterrestrial entity (still a triumph of creature design) makes a visit. Her trusty hound Sarii joins her. Camouflaging itself to attack at the right moments and still giving its potential victims a fighting chance, this is indeed Predator’s best vehicle since part 1.

Predator 2 certainly had its guilty pleasures back in 1990 while 2010’s Predators was a mixed bag. By 2018, Shane Black’s The Predator fell apart as it went along and marked a low point. Prey‘s concept of taking the iconic monster back 300 years is simple and effective. Midthunder’s determined heroine is a huge plus and she’s easily the most engaging protagonist since Arnold. Predator isn’t the only predator around as French colonists surface to torment the Comanches. This group’s encounters with Naru and the beast are violent highlights.

Besides some occasionally questionable CG, it’s fair to say that Prey works on every level imaginable. I found myself immersed in the striking landscapes that its unwelcome guest crashes. Trachtenberg stages his action sequences with precision and there’s no time wasted in its 100 minutes. This is how you do a prequel. With this crew involved, I’d eagerly sign up for more predatory journeys through history.

***1/2 (out of four)

The Predator Movie Review

There are moments in The Predator where it feels like the franchise went the route of 80s slasher series when Freddy, Jason, and Michael ruled the day. With the alien creatures roaming the suburbs for a brief stretch and with some deliriously gory bits and extreme profanity, I could imagine this is as the fifth installment when the well is running dry. This could maybe be Predator V following Predator In Harlem or something. It’s a time in the series when ridiculous and probably offensive characters like an autistic kid who’s actually deemed an enhancement in human evolution is introduced. The main protagonist would be dull and boring, not close to matching Arnold Schwarzenegger in the 1987 original or even Danny Glover’s overburdened LAPD officer in the 1990 sequel. And the one-liners would harken back to the rock solid first one but generally be lamer.

Strangely enough, it’s some of that which makes the 2018 edition mindless fun in the first half. This isn’t anything of quality, but it serves as an occasional guilty pleasure VHS throwback that would have filled the shelves of those defunct rental institutions. I think director Shane Black and co-writer Fred Dekker know that. Black has turned into a fine filmmaker with action comedies like Kiss Kiss Bang Bang and The Nice Guys. He’s known mostly for his behind the scenes work, but he memorably played the role of Hawkins in Predator’s big screen debut 31 years ago.

The screenplay makes some downright bizarre choices. Jacob Tremblay’s aforementioned autistic kid is one of them. His Special Forces dad Quinn (Boyd Holbrook) is that forgettable head alien battler. Holbrook discovers a title character on a mission and ships some evidence of its existence to his boy. That leads the extraterrestrial to the ‘burbs to retrieve his property. Quinn finds himself detained by the government led by shady Sterling K. Brown and in the company of a motley crew of PTSD soldiers. They include Trevante Rhodes (whose primary character trait is that he smokes), Thomas Jane (he has Tourette’s), and Keegan-Michael Key (yo mama jokes). They’re the guys, along with Olivia Munn’s biologist, who fight not only two Predators, but the space dogs that accompany them. That’s another odd visual choice.

I couldn’t help but be fascinated by Black and Dekker’s outright nuttiness with their take on The Predator. However, it doesn’t last. By the third act, the pic moves to a jungle looking setting with some dodgy effects. We’re hammered with familiarity. That’s what made famous predators like Freddy and Jason and Michael grow stale, but their countless sequels were punctuated with an inspired sequence here and there. We see that early in this reboot and then not really again.

** (out of four)

The Predator Box Office Prediction

Over three decades ago, Shane Black costarred in the classic sci-fi adventure tale Predator. Like most cast members, he didn’t manage to survive the proceedings like Arnold Schwarzenegger did. He did go on to an impressive writing and directing career that includes the screenplays for Lethal Weapon, The Last Boy Scout, and The Long Kiss Goodnight and serving double duty for Kiss Kiss Bang Bang, Iron Man 3, and The Nice Guys. Things come full circle next weekend for Black as he directs and co-writes The Predator, the latest iteration of the long running franchise.

Not counting the two Alien vs. Predator extravaganzas, this is the fourth traditional entry in the series behind the 1987’s original, its 1990 sequel, and the 2010 reboot Predators. Boyd Holbrook, Trevante Rhodes, Wonder star Jacob Tremblay, Keegan-Michael Key, Olivia Munn, Sterling K. Brown, and Thomas Jane populate the human troupe battling the deadly creatures.

It’s actually the first teaming of this franchise with the Alien series that resulted in the largest debut featuring the title character in 2004 – to the tune of a $38.2 million. Predators set the high mark over parts 1 and 2 (due to inflation) with a $24.7 million start. Its overall gross was very front-loaded as it ended up with $52 million.

The eight year inflation should allow The Predator to exceed that, but I don’t see it coming close to the high 30s number that AVP achieved. I would say high 20s is the more reasonable expectation and that should allow it to place #1 at the box office (something Predators couldn’t manage in the heat of significant summer competition). As a comp for 2018, I’ve got this earning a similar debut to this spring’s Pacific Rim Uprising. 

The Predator opening weekend prediction: $27.4 million

For my A Simple Favor prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/05/a-simple-favor-box-office-prediction/

For my White Boy Rick prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/06/white-boy-rick-box-office-prediction/

For my Unbroken: Path to Redemption prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/06/unbroken-path-to-redemption-box-office-prediction/

Summer 1987: The Top 10 Hits and More

As we begin the month of August and the dog days of summer, I’ll be traveling back 30, 20, and 10 years ago to seasons past giving you the top ten hits and more of that particular time frame. Today we are going all the way to 1987.

It was a simpler time back then. There were very few sequels and franchises and reboots and a good portion of the highest grossing flicks dealt with law enforcement in action type settings. Only one picture grossed over $100 million dollars. Yes, the times have changed, but what a hoot to look back at what was burning up the box office charts three decades ago. This post will also discuss some other notable flicks outside the top ten and some big ole flops.

Let’s get to it!

10. The Living Daylights

Domestic Gross: $51 million

The 15th James Bond picture kicked off the brief two picture reign of Timothy Dalton, who took over the iconic role after the late Roger Moore’s 12 year long portrayal of 007. It’s $51M gross would just surpass the $50M earnings of Moore’s swan song, 1985’s A View to a Kill. Two summers later, Dalton would star in his swan song Licence to Kill before Pierce Brosnan donned the tuxedo six years later.

9. Robocop

Domestic Gross: $53 million

Paul Verhoeven’s futuristic sci-fi action thriller nearly received the dreaded X rating upon its release. It also received critical acclaim and spawned two sequels and a 2014 remake.

8. La Bamba

Domestic Gross: $54 million

This biopic of singer Ritchie Valens starring Lou Diamond Phillips was a major summer sleeper and even earned a Golden Globe nod for Best Picture (Drama). It also featured the Los Lobos cover of the title song that was in the top ten summer songs of 1987.

7. Dragnet

Domestic Gross: $57 million

A few years before Tom Hanks was earning back to back Best Actor Oscars, he was costarring in silly remakes of 1950s cop dramas. Dragnet managed to perform well and it’s a guilty pleasure, especially Dan Aykroyd’s take on Sgt. Joe Friday (a role made famous by Jack Webb).

6. Predator

Domestic Gross: $59 million

One of Arnold Schwarzenegger’s finest action pics, Predator also kicked off an impressive three picture directorial run by John McTiernan that was followed up by Die Hard and The Hunt for Red October. This franchise is still going strong today, but nothing beats the hard edged original.

5. Dirty Dancing

Domestic Gross: $63 million

The biggest sleeper hit of the summer vaulted Patrick Swayze into super stardom and won the Oscar for Best Original Song for Bill Medley and Jennifer Warnes’s “(I’ve Had) The Time of My Life”.

4. The Witches of Eastwick

Domestic Gross: $63 million

Mad Max maker George Miller went Hollywood with this critically appreciated comedic fantasy with an all-star cast of Jack Nicholson, Cher, Susan Sarandon, and Michelle Pfeiffer.

3. Stakeout

Domestic Gross: $65 million

This was the height of the buddy cop era and it propelled this one starring Richard Dreyfuss and Emilio Estevez to big grosses. A less regarded sequel costarring Rosie O’Donnell would follow six years later.

2. The Untouchables

Domestic Gross: $76 million

Brian De Palma’s take on the classic TV series was a big-budget and highly entertaining affair headlined by Kevin Costner, Robert De Niro, Andy Garcia, and Sean Connery (who won a Supporting Actor Oscar for his work).

1. Beverly Hills Cop II

Domestic Gross: $153 million

Eddie Murphy was just about the biggest movie star in the world in summer 1987 and that’s shown here by the enormous gross of the sequel to his 1984 classic, directed by Tony Scott. A much less successful third entry would follow seven summers later after Murphy’s box office potency had waned.

And now – here’s some other notable pictures from the season:

Full Metal Jacket

Domestic Gross: $46 million

Legendary director Stanley Kubrick’s first film in seven years (since The Shining) is now considered a modern classic, especially for its unforgettable first half featuring R. Lee Ermey’s Vietnam drill sergeant.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3j3_iPskjxk

Spaceballs

Domestic Gross: $38 million

This Mel Brooks spoof of Star Wars may not be in Blazing Saddles or Young Frankenstein territory, but it’s certainly earned quite a cult status through the last 30 years.

Adventures in Babysitting

Domestic Gross: $34 million

The directorial debut of Chris Columbus (who would go on to make Home Alone, Mrs. Doubtfire and the first two Harry Potter pics), Babysitting has also achieved cult cred in addition to its decent box office showing at the time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AdyPJlyJ0_8

The Lost Boys

Domestic Gross: $32 million

Another flick with a rabid fan base, the teen pic cast Kiefer Sutherland, Jason Patric, and Corey Feldman in a California town overrun by vampires.

And now for a couple of 1987 summer box office bombs:

Jaws IV: The Revenge

Domestic Gross: $20 million

12 summers prior, Steven Spielberg’s original was a landmark motion picture. By the time the fourth entry came around, the series had gotten terrible. It still has a 0% score on Rotten Tomatoes and Michael Caine actually missed picking up his Oscar for Hannah and Her Sisters because he was shooting this turkey.

Superman IV: The Quest for Peace

Domestic Gross: $15 million

Not a solid summer for four-quels. This served as a bad ending to a series started nine years earlier. There was a moratorium on Supes pic for the next 19 years.

Ishtar

Domestic Gross: $14 million

Considered one of the largest bombs in film history at the time, this comedy with Warren Beatty and Dustin Hoffman was a punchline for years. Its reputation has grown a bit since.

And that’s my recap folks! I’ll be back recounting summer 1997 very soon…