As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our fifth performer in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things . Let’s get to it!
Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:
The Kids Are All Right (Supporting Actor, 2010); Foxcatcher (Supporting Actor, 2014); Spotlight (Supporting Actor, 2015)
The Case for Mark Ruffalo:
For his role as a true louse in Yorgos Lanthimos’s Poor Things, Ruffalo notched his fourth bid in Supporting Actor and perhaps voters will feel he’s overdue. He doesn’t have to worry about splitting votes with Willem Dafoe (his costar who was omitted) and he received noms at the Globes and Critics Choice.
The Case Against Mark Ruffalo:
He did not receive mentions at key precursors SAG and BAFTA. His leading lady Emma Stone is receiving the only potential winner buzz. Most importantly, Ruffalo’s fellow Avenger Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) has taken all the trophies at preceding ceremonies.
The Verdict:
It’s Iron Man and not Hulk happening here.
My Case Of posts will conclude (!) with Justine Triet’s direction for Anatomy of a Fall…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our fifth performer in Best Actress and that’s Emma Stone in Poor Things. Let’s get to it!
Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:
Birdman (Supporting Actress, 2014); La La Land (Actress, 2016, WON); The Favourite (Supporting Actress, 2019)
The Case for Emma Stone:
Stone has posted significant wins this season with the Globes for Musical/Comedy, BAFTA, and Critics Choice. As Bella in Yorgos Lanthimos’s latest multi-genre concoction, she leads the picture with the second most overall nominations after Oppenheimer.
The Case Against Emma Stone:
Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) has key victories of her own at the Globes (Drama) and, most notably, SAG last weekend. Voters may opt to honor her in what would be a history making win over Stone’s second statue in seven years.
The Verdict:
This appears to be the one acting derby coming down to the wire. Between Stone and Gladstone, I’ll be pondering it all the way to final predictions in the coming days.
My Case Of posts will continue with Jeffrey Wright in American Fiction…
There were no shockers in the film races at the 30th SAG Awards as I went for 4 for 6. And indeed… four of the categories were fairly easy to predict while Actress and Actor were tossups. They went the other way from my forecasts.
Oppenheimer is your Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture as it seems destined for the Academy’s BP prize in a couple of weeks. Simply put, it has swept all the precursors it needs to.
Christopher Nolan’s epic won half the cinematic derbies this evening as Cillian Murphy took lead Actor. I had Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers getting this one. The general feeling (and I believe the correct one) is that if Murphy managed SAG, that makes it difficult to bet against him for Oscar. The race moves from Tossup between Murphy and Giamatti to Likely Murphy. As expected, Robert Downey Jr. continued his dominance in Supporting Actor.
In non-Oppenheimer news, Lily Gladstone was honored as lead Actress in Killers of the Flower Moon over Emma Stone in Poor Things (who I predicted). Had Stone made the podium trip, this Oscar category would be Likely Stone. Now I’d say it’s a tossup as both performers have essentially split the precursors.
Da’Vine Joy Randolph put another notch in the anticipated sweep in Supporting Actress for The Holdovers.
Finally, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning is the first feature in that long running franchise to win Stunt Ensemble. I called that one.
Bottom line: SAG gave a huge boost to Gladstone giving Stone steady competition in two weeks. Meanwhile the Oppenheimer momentum keeps rolling along.
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our fourth performer in Best Actress and that’s Carey Mulligan in Maestro. Let’s get to it!
Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:
An Education (2009, Actress); Promising Young Woman (2020, Actress)
The Case for Carey Mulligan:
After likely coming up just a little short to Frances McDormand (Nomadland) in 2020 for PromisingYoungWoman, Mulligan has made the cut at key precursors with the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and SAG. As Leonard Bernstein’s spouse Felicia, she has a number of Oscar clips to choose from alongside costar Bradley Cooper.
The Case Against Carey Mulligan:
So do Emma Stone (Poor Things) and Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) and they’ve taken the hardware in ceremonies that have already occurred.
The Verdict:
The third time won’t be the charm for Mulligan.
My Case Of posts will continue with Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer…
The 30th SAG Awards air this Saturday and they are rightly viewed as an often reliable barometer for the Oscars, especially in the acting derbies. The biggest prize honors the strongest ensemble and that’s a less reliable match with Best Picture. Over the past 10 ceremonies, the correlation has been 5 out of 10 and that includes the last two shows with CODA and Everything Everywhere All at Once.
On the other hand, it was four for four in Actress, Actor, and the supporting competitions last year. That also holds true for 2021.
Sunday’s program could solidify frontrunner statuses for Actress/Actor hopefuls and further potential sweeps for the supporting players. Let’s walk through all 6 categories with a winner and runner-up selection.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, The Color Purple, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
You have to go back to the second SAG Awards and The Birdcage to find a nominee that wasn’t an Oscar BP nominee so you can cross The Color Purple out immediately. My hunch is this comes down to Barbenheimer. We know that Oppenheimer is the overwhelming favorite for the Academy’s BP. However, Barbie could legitimately pick this up. This is a close call and I wouldn’t totally rule out Fiction. Yet the fact is that Oppenheimer might be strong enough to nab this one in addition to all the other precursors.
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Barbie
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
This is where Gladstone could make the Oscar race a nail biter. Stone has taken Critics Choice and BAFTA. If she gets the victory at SAG, she’ll become the easy favorite. Arguably a coin flip, but I’m sensing Stone gets it.
Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, Poor Things
Runner-Up: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
Read what I said about Female Actor in a Leading Role. In this race, Cillian Murphy is Emma Stone. Paul Giamatti is Lily Gladstone (except Giamatti took Critics Choice). Murphy could achieve frontrunner status or Giamatti could make it a jump ball. I’m projecting the latter.
Predicted Winner: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Penélope Cruz (Ferrari), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
Randolph has been the victor everywhere important and I don’t see SAG interrupting her sweep.
Predicted Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Read what I said about Female Actor in a Supporting Role. Robert Downey Jr. is Da’Vine Joy Randolph.
Predicted Winner: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Barbie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, John Wick: Chapter 4, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
The sequel heavy lineup marks the first nomination for a John Wick pic. Some prognosticators are going with it, but I’m forecasting the Mission series (in its third try) pulls through.
Predicted Winner: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
A weekend of precursors culminates on Sunday with the 35th PGA Awards. The 10 nominees in the top race at PGA happen to match the 10 that Oscar put up in Best Picture. There’s two other categories to consider with animated fare and docs. I will walk through all three with a winner prediction and a runner-up possibility.
Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures
Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Let’s not make this complicated, shall we? Oppenheimer should have no trouble taking this as it’s taken all key precursors. 7 of the last 10 PGA victors have ended up as the Academy’s BP (the last diversion was 2019 when 1917 took PGA and Parasite was BP).
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Barbie
Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
The Boy and the Heron has made this category one to watch with Globe and BAFTA trophies. That being said, I think Spidey has the edge with PGA.
Predicted Winner: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron
Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures
Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, The Disappearance of Shere Hite, The Mother of All Lies, Smoke Sauna Sisterhood, Squaring the Circle (The Story of Hipgnosis)
Mariupol has cleaned up on its way to a likely Oscar victory and it should emerge here.
Predicted Winner: 20 Days in Mariupol
Runner-Up: American Symphony
I’ll have a recap up on the blog after the show on Sunday!
The top races went as I anticipated at the 77th BAFTA Awards while other races were a bit more unpredictable. That’s pretty much par for the course with the British equivalent of the Oscars as I went 13/23 (oof) in my selections.
Let’s start with Oppenheimer. As expected, Christopher Nolan’s epic took Best Film and its maker is your Best Director. Some prognosticators had this pegged for a record setting 10 BAFTAs. I had it winning 8 and it took 7. In addition to Film and Director, I correctly called Cillian Murphy in Actor, Robert Downey Jr. in Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Editing, and Original Score. I still believe Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers poses a threat to Murphy with the Academy (especially if he manages to win SAG). Oppenheimer should take those other BAFTA trophies a little less than a month away at the Oscars.
I incorrectly had Oppenheimer taking Best Sound. It instead went to The Zone of Interest. The Holocaust drama had a solid day with a victory in Best Film Not in the English Language over my predicted Anatomy of a Fall and for Outstanding British Film over my pick of Poor Things.
Despite the Poor miss in that category, it was honored with a handful of prizes. Emma Stone is your Best Actress and it won Costume Design, Makeup & Hair (over my Maestro call), Production Design, and Special Visual Effects (over my Napoleon pick).
The Holdovers was a double recipient for Supporting Actress with Da’Vine Joy Randolph and Casting (I went with All of Us Strangers instead).
Those four (Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest, The Holdovers) were the only features with two victories or more. Here’s what else I got right: Anatomy of a Fall in Original Screenplay (which certainly helps its Oscar chances) and 20 Days in Mariupol for Documentary (same story).
In Adapted Screenplay, it was American Fiction continuing to make the case for Academy gold with a surprise win over Poor Things and my runner-up Oppenheimer.
The Boy and the Heron, as it did at the Globes, is Best Animated Feature over Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. I went with Spidey and there could be a real showdown on March 10th.
Earth Mama is the Outstanding British Debut by a Writer, Director or Producer over the favored How to Have Sex while the lead in Sex (Mia McKenna-Bruce) is the Rising Star over Jacob Elordi (who I picked).
Some overall takeaways that shouldn’t surprise: Oppenheimer is still the overwhelming choice for BP as it’s winning everywhere it needs to. Same goes for Nolan and Downey Jr.
Randolph is bascially a lock for Supporting Actress while Emma Stone helped herself today over stiff competition from Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall. Some noteworthy pics that didn’t take a single award: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Maestro.
Keep an eye on the blog for all Oscar speculation as we approach the big show!
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our third performer in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer. Let’s get to it!
It could be considered the capper for one of the most remarkable comeback stories in Hollywood history. In the mid 90s, Downey Jr.’s career appeared over due to drug abuse and legal woes. By 2008, he was starting run as star of the biggest franchise of all time with the MCU and multiple appearances as Tony Stark in the Iron Man and Avengers series. His role as the scheming AEC Chairman Lewis Strauss in Christopher Nolan’s epic biopic has swept the season thus far at the Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. SAG is likely to follow suit next weekend. This could be seen as a career achievement prize and his peers are probably eager to give it to him (similar to Jamie Lee Curtis last year in Everything Everywhere All at Once).
The Case Against Robert Downey Jr.:
Frankly, it’s difficult to come up with one. Maybe the voters will look at Supporting Actor as a place to honor Barbie and give it to Ryan Gosling. The same logic could apply to Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things or Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon.
The Verdict:
At this point, anything other than a Downey Jr. victory would be a significant upset.
My Case Of posts will continue with the direction of Christopher Nolan in Oppenheimer…
Sunday brings the 77th BAFTA Awards as we look for further clues to the pictures and performers who will emerge victorious at the Oscars next month. Oppenheimer leads the pack with 13 nominations (the same number as its Academy haul) with Poor Things in second with 11 (also matching numbers wise with its American counterpart).
For each race, I’m giving you a predicted winner with a runner-up. I’ll have a recap on the blog with my takeaways following the ceremony!
Film
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Director
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
Predicted Winner: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Is there one?? Let’s just say Glazer
Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Vivian Oparah (Rye Lane), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, Poor Things
Runner-Up: Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Teo Yoo (Past Lives)
Predicted Winner: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers), Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
Predicted Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Jacob Elordi (Saltburn), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)
Predicted Winner: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Original Screenplay
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, Past Lives
Predicted Winner: Anatomy of a Fall
Runner-Up: The Holdovers
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Predicted Winner: Poor Things
Runner-Up: Oppenheimer
Animated Feature
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Predicted Winner: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron
Documentary
Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wham!
Predicted Winner: 20 Days in Mariupol
Runner-Up: Beyond Utopia
Film Not in the English Language
Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest
Predicted Winner: Anatomy of a Fall
Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest
Casting
Nominees: All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, How to Have Sex, Killers of the Flower Moon
Predicted Winner: All of Us Strangers
Runner-Up: The Holdovers
Cinematography
Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Costume Design
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Predicted Winner: Poor Things
Runner-Up: Barbie
Editing
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Make-Up & Hair
Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Predicted Winner: Maestro
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Original Score
Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
Production Design
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Predicted Winner: Poor Things
Runner-Up: Barbie
Sound
Nominees: Ferrari, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest
Special Visual Effects
Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon, Poor Things
Predicted Winner: Napoleon
Runner-Up: The Creator
Outstanding British Film
Nominees: All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, Napoleon, The Old Oak, Poor Things, Rye Lane, Saltburn, Scrapper, Wonka, The Zone of Interest
Predicted Winner: Poor Things
Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
Nominees: Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, Earth Mama, How to Have Sex, Is There Anybody Out There?
Predicted Winner: How to Have Sex
Runner-Up: Bobi Wine: The People’s President
Rising Star
Nominees: Phoebe Dynevor, Ayo Edebiri, Jacob Elordi, Mia McKenna-Bruce, Sophia Wilde
Predicted Winner: Jacob Elordi
Runner-Up: Mia McKenna-Bruce
That works out to these numbers of victories for these pictures:
8 Wins
Oppenheimer
5 Wins
Poor Things
2 Wins
Anatomy of a Fall
1 Win
20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, The Holdovers, Maestro, Napoleon, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our third performer in Best Actress and that’s Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall. Let’s get to it!
Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:
None
The Case for Sandra Hüller:
The German actress earned raves for her turn in Justine Triet’s Cannes Palme d’Or winning French legal drama which earned five overall nods including Picture. She also added to her impressive 2023 with her role in BP nominated The Zone of Interest (where she probably came up just short in Supporting Actress). The Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA put her in their mix and she’s received a few regional critics prizes.
The Case Against Sandra Hüller:
Hüller has yet to win a key precursor as those have gone to Emma Stone (Poor Things) and Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon). She missed SAG. France dropped the ball by selecting The Taste of Things as their International Feature Film contender instead of Anatomy. If they had, it might have taken that race (over The Zone of Interest) and those coattails could’ve helped.
The Verdict:
Stone or Gladstone are the favorites. However, if an upset did occur, Hüller could pull it off and that’s especially true if she wins the BAFTA. I wouldn’t bet on it, but I wouldn’t totally dismiss the possibility.
My Case Of posts will continue with Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers…
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 