Kinds of Kindness Box Office Prediction

Kinds of Kindness is the latest offering from Yorgos Lanthimos and it hits just months after the filmmaker’s multi Oscar nominee Poor Things. The dark comedy anthology stars Emma Stone, Jesse Plemons, Willem Dafoe, Margaret Qualley, Hong Chau, Joe Alwyn, Mamoudou Athie, and Hunter Schafer.

After a Cannes premiere that yielded mostly positive reviews, the RT score now stands at a respectable if not overwhelming 73%. This is not expected to be the awards player that Poor Things was (four wins in 11 nominations including Stone for Best Actress). That buzz certainly assisted in getting Things to a $34 million domestic gross.

Kindness did open on 5 screens this weekend in NY/LA and it posted the strongest per theater average of 2024 with an estimated $350k or $70k per. On June 28th, it will see an expansion to 500+ venues across the nation.

How this plays between the coasts is a trickier proposition. I’ll say the wider rollout gives it another $3 million and change as I don’t see it reaching Poor numbers.

Kinds of Kindness opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million

For my A Quiet Place: Day One prediction, click here:

For my Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 prediction, click here:

97th Academy Awards Predictions: May 19th, 2024

My latest round of Oscar predictions arrives at the midpoint of the Cannes Film Festival and the hoopla on the French Riviera has cleared up some lingering questions. Is Francis Ford Coppola’s decades in development sci-fi epic Megalopolis a contender? That answer appears to be no. Same goes for Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada.

It gets a lot more uncertain after that. Andrea Arnold’s Bird has its fans and I do think its BP chances are intact. Category placement issues abound. I thought Barry Keoghan would be lead for Bird, but reaction suggests he’s supporting.

Then there’s Kinds of Kindness from Yorgos Lanthimos. The WOM for it suggests it definitely faces longer odds for Academy inclusion that his two predecessors The Favourite and Poor Things. That said, I wouldn’t totally discount it. I could see it generating a lone Original Screenplay nod. Right now I’m putting Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons in lead as possibilities and hopefully we’ll know soon if they’re being campaigned there or in supporting.

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga also is behind its predecessor Mad Max: Fury Road in terms of possibilities. While it should land a few tech nods, BP and Director chances are feasible yet less than what happened nine years ago.

I would suggest that Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez has done itself the most good at Cannes. The crowd-pleasing reaction has me elevating it into the top 10 in BP with Zoe Saldaña in Actress and Karla Sofia Gascón in Supporting Actress. In previous posts, I had those two performers in each other’s categories. It’s still not locked as to where they will be, but this is my best guess based on the information available.

In news not related to Cannes, it was announced that The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat will be a Hulu exclusive premiere. That would seem to take it out of contention at the Oscars.

I will likely have another update posted next weekend since more Cannes titles will be unveiled including Horizon: An American Saga and The Apprentice. Stay tuned, folks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)

6. The End (PR: 6) (E)

7. His Three Daughters (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 15) (+6)

10. The Apprentice (PR: 13) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Bird (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Dídi (PR: 23) (+9)

15. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 14) (-1)

16. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 12) (-4)

17. The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (-10)

18. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (-10)

19. Hit Man (PR: 20) (+1)

20. A Real Pain (PR: 21) (+1)

21. Civil War (PR: 19) (-2)

22. Maria (PR: 17) (-5)

23. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 18) (-6)

25. Here (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Megalopolis

The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

Hard Truths

SNL 1975

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: 15) (+9)

7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 9) (E)

10. Ali Abbasi, The Apprentice (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 12) (E)

13. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Andrea Arnold, Bird (PR: 5) (-9)

15. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness

Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside

Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (E)

3. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 3) (E)

4. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked, moved from Supporting)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 12) (E)

13. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: 13) (E)

14. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Emma Stone, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (moved to Supporting)

Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR 3) (E)

4. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (+4)

5. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)

9. George MacKay, The End (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Kinglsey Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (E)

14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Barry Keoghan, Bird (moved to Supportong)

Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (E)

5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)

10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: 11) (E)

12. Robin Wright, Here (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (E)

14. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Cailee Spaeny, Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness

Erin Kellyman, Blitz

Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness

Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (moved to lead)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (+4)

5. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 3 (-4)

8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: Not Ranked, moved from lead)

10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Leigh Gill, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Franz Rogowski, Bird

Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness

Oscar Predictions: Kinds of Kindness

The previous two features from Yorgos Lanthimos – 2018’s The Favourite and last year’s Poor Things – combined for 21 Oscar nominations. This includes two Actress victories for Olivia Colman in the former and Emma Stone in the latter. Mere months after Poor Things, Lanthimos’s follow-up Kinds of Kindness has premiered at Cannes prior to its June 21st stateside bow. The three hour anthology has Ms. Stone headlining alongside Jesse Plemons, Willem Dafoe, Margaret Qualley, Hong Chau, Joe Alwyn, Mamoudou Athie, and Hunter Schafer.

Unlike his two Academy contending predecessors, Lanthimos reunites with writing partner Efthimis Filippou. They collaborated on the filmmaker’s earlier projects Dogtooth (2012), The Lobster (2016), and The Killing of a Sacred Deer (2017).

The Rotten Tomatoes score is 94%, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Several critics, while praising many aspects, are calling this an easier picture to admire than like. This will be a true test of the Academy’s affinity for its maker. Those last two projects yielded five acting nominations and the aforementioned two wins. Stone and Plemons in particular are generating plenty of kudos. I do question whether Searchlight hones in on any of the cast for recognition. Perhaps SAG will take notice. In my previous prediction posts, I singled out Hong Chau for Supporting Actress consideration. I doubt that happens now. The best bet could be a sole Screenplay nod.

I wouldn’t discount Kinds receiving the kindness of awards voters. That said, I believe it faces more of an uphill battle than Lanthimos’s recent things that the Academy favoured. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Fancy Dance

Lily Gladstone’s work in Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon last year was met with nominations across the awards spectrum with victories at the Golden Globes and SAG. Yet she came up short (and was almost certainly runner-up) at the Academy Awards when Emma Stone took Best Actress for Poor Things.

She may have another at bat with Fancy Dance. The drama/mystery from Erica Tremblay casts Gladstone as an Oklahoman searching for her missing sister while caring for her niece. Isabel DeRoy-Olson, Ryan Begay, and Shea Whigham costar. After its premiere at Sundance in January, Dance is in theaters on a limited basis June 21st before an Apple TV streaming start on June 28th.

Reviews out of Park City were impressive and this stands at 97% on Rotten Tomatoes. This is not as high profile a project as Gladstone’s preceding picture. Apple will need to put together an aggressive campaign for its lead to contend in Actress for a second year in a row. Her chances are lower this time around to make the Academy’s dance, but it’s possible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

97th Academy Awards Predictions: April 21, 2024

A month and change after the 96th Academy Awards aired, it is time for my first ranked predictions for the next ceremony coming your way March 2, 2025.

Yes, it’s early. However, I posted my inaugural numbered forecasts for Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies around the same juncture a year ago. The results named the eventual winners in all six races. In BP, four of the 10 contenders were predicted (including Oppenheimer) while three others were listed in Other Possibilities. For Director, I correctly called 2 of the 5 filmmakers (including Christopher Nolan) with two others in Other Possibilities. Best Actress yielded just one, but it was statue recipient Emma Stone for Poor Things. Two others were listed in Other Possibilities. Best Actor also saw one with three of the others in Other Possibilities (including Oppenheimer himself, Cillian Murphy). For Supporting Actress, it was 1 and then 2 in Other Possibilities (including victor Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers). Finally, in Supporting Actor, it was one in the projected quintet with three in Other Possibilities and that includes Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer.

Let’s get those caveats out of the way. Some of the performers predicted in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. That happened in 2023 when I had Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) at #1 in Supporting Actress and then she ended up being campaigned for and was nominated in Best Actress. Some of the movies will get pushed back to 2025. There’s a few from my first projections in April 2023 that were supposed to come out that year. You’ll find them listed below and that list includes heavy hitters like Dune: Part Two, Blitz, Challengers, The Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Nightbitch, and The Fire Inside to name a few.

You can expect these predictions to be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post starting in late summer/early fall when festival season goes into overdrive. A smattering of these titles will have reviews up when they premiere at Cannes less than a month from now. They include Bird, Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Apprentice, Emilia Perez, and Horizon: An American Saga.

With all that out of the way – here are those first ranked takes!

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz

2. Dune: Part Two

3. Conclave

4. Sing Sing

5. The End

6. Queer

7. The Fire Inside

8. Bird

9. Kinds of Kindness

10. Dídi

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux

12. The Apprentice

13. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

15. Civil War

16. Maria

17. Megalopolis

18. The Piano Lesson

19. Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2

20. A Real Pain

21. Here

22. The Nickel Boys

23. Hard Truths

24. Wicked

25. Gladiator II

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

3. Edward Berger, Conclave

4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End

5. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer

7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing

8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness

9. Andrea Arnold, Bird

10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux

11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

12. Sean Wang, Dídi

13. Alex Garland, Civil War

14. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis

15. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angelina Jolie, Maria

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

3. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside

4. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie á Deux

5. Tilda Swinton, The End

Other Possibilities:

6. Amy Adams, Nightbitch

7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

8. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

9. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez

10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

12. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

13. Zendaya, Challengers

14. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

3. Barry Keoghan, Bird

4. Daniel Craig, Queer

5. André Holland, The Actor

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux

7. George MacKay, The End

8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

9. Glen Powell, Hit Man

10. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two

12. Adam Driver, Megalopolis

13. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

14. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration

15. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Joan Chen, Dídi

2. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

3. Erin Kellyman, Blitz

4. Lesley Manville, Queer

5. Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness

Other Possibilities:

6. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

7. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice

8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys

9. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

10. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

11. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

12. Cailee Spaeny, Civil War

13. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle

14. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters

15. Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

3. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

5. Leigh Gill, Blitz

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

8. Drew Starkey, Queer

9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz

10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man

11. John Lithgow, Conclave

12. Forest Whitaker, Megalopolis

13. Paul Raci, Sing Sing

14. Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two

15. Edgar Ramirez, Emilia Perez

As always, keep an eye on the blog for future updates and Oscar Prediction posts focusing in various pictures as they screen!

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Picture

We are over a month removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my first takes on the acting derbies and Director and they can be perused here:

We now move to the big prize. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded half of the eventual nominees: the winner Oppenheimer in addition to Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Past Lives, and Poor Things. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named Barbie and The Holdovers. I did not identify American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, or The Zone of Interest at that early juncture.

Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders.

It is a safe assumption that the year’s biggest grosser thus far – Dune: Part Two – has punched its ticket to contention. Everything else, frankly, is guesswork right now. With Cannes coming up, some questions will be answered soon. Followers of the blog, however, know this is a months long process in the BP puzzle. It starts today.

Here’s the first snapshot…

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTION FOR BEST DIRECTOR AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS:

Bird

Blitz

Conclave

Dídi

Dune: Part Two

The End

The Fire Inside

Kinds of Kindness

Queer

Sing Sing

Other Possibilities:

The Apprentice

Civil War

A Different Man

Emilia Perez

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Gladiator 2

Hard Truths

Horizon: Am America Saga – Chapter 2

Joker: Folie à Deux

Megalopolis

The Nickel Boys

Nightbitch

The Piano Lesson

A Real Pain

Wicked

I’ll have my first rankings in the six major categories up in short order!

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Director

We are over a month removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my first takes on the acting derbies and they can be perused here:

We now move to Director. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded the winner with Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer as well as Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). Under the 10 other possibilities, I named Yorgos Lanthimos of Poor Things. I did not identify Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) or Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) at the early juncture.

Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders.

In 2021, one of the biggest shockers of nomination morning was Denis Villeneuve being left out of Best Director for Dune. I don’t have history repeating itself as the filmmaker makes my initial quintet for the sequel. So does Edward Berger, who was surprisingly snubbed in 2022 for All Quiet on the Western Front.

Here’s the first snapshot…

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTION FOR BEST DIRECTOR AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS:

Edward Berger, Conclave

Steve McQueen, Blitz

Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside

Joshua Oppenheimer, The End

Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

Other Possibilities:

Ali Abbasi, The Apprentice

Andrea Arnold, Bird

Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis

Alex Garland, Civil War

Luca Guadagnino, Queer

Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing

Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness

George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux

Sean Wang, Dídi

Best Picture is up next!

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress

We are about a month removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my first takes on the supporting derbies and Best Actor and they can be perused here:

We now move to Actress. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded the winner with Emma Stone for Poor Things. I will note that her main competitor – Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon – was listed at that time as a Supporting Actress contender and not lead. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named Annette Bening in Nyad and Carey Mulligan for Maestro. I did not identify Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall) at that early juncture.

Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned for in supporting actress (the vice versa of Gladstone).

Speaking of Gladstone, she could make a return appearance with Fancy Dance. So could Ms. Stone though I do wonder if the anthology format of Kinds of Kindness slots her here or in lead. Other possibilities include the return of Angelina Jolie to the awards conversation as opera legend Maria Callas in Maria and Lady Gaga as Joker’s muse Harley Quinn in Joker: Folie à Deux.

Here’s the first snapshot:

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTRESS AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS:

Amy Adams, Nightbitch

Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside

Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux

Angelina Jolie, Maria

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

Other Possibilitities:

Glenn Close, The Summer Book

Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez

Lily Gladstone, Fancy Dance

Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle

Florence Pugh, We Live in Time

Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

Tilda Swinton, The End

Zendaya, Challengers

Best Director is up next!

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Oscar Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

And here we go! We are about three weeks removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days.

It begins with Supporting Actor. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded one nominee: Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named the eventual winner Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer as well as Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon. I did not identify Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) or Ryan Gosling (Barbie) at the early juncture.

Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned for in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actor.

This premiere post previews a potential showdown of Succession actors Kieran Culkin and Jeremy Strong as well as possible spots for legends like Denzel Washington and Willem Dafoe. There’s also relative unknowns (Leigh Gill, Clarence Maclin) and a pair of Dune thespians (Javier Bardem, Austin Butler). This lineup is admittedly far less star-studded than 2023’s.

Here’s the first snapshot:

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTOR AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Leigh Gill, Blitz

Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

Drew Starkey, Queer

Stanley Tucci, Conclave

Other Possibilities:

Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two

Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two

Willem Dafoe, Kinds of Kindness

Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

John Lithgow, Conclave

Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

Adam Pearson, A Diffrent Man

Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Denzel Washington, Gladiator 2

Forest Whitaker, Megalopolis

96th Academy Awards Reaction

After a year plus of speculation, the 96th Academy Awards have finally happened. As anticipated, Oppenheimer had a solid night by winning over half of its nominations with 7 trophies out of 13 nods. It emerged triumphant in the top of the line races where it was expected to do so: Picture, Director (Christopher Nolan), Actor (Cillian Murphy), and Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.). **Fun fact: RDJ is the first former SNL cast member to win an Oscar. Oppenheimer also took the prizes for Cinematography, Film Editing, and Original Score. I correctly called those victories for the epic biopic correctly.

The real question of the night was what other movie would emerge as having a good night with the Academy. That answer turned out to be Poor Things. I only had Yorgos Lanthimos’s multi-genre experiencing generating one Oscar. It received four. I rightly had it pegged for Production Design. Yet it also took Makeup & Hairstyling over my pick of Maestro and Costume Design over my favored Barbie.

And then… Emma Stone took to the podium for her second Academy Award in 7 years over Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), who had seemed to grab the momentum after her SAG statue. It turned out to be the BAFTAs (where Stone won) that had the closest correlations with tonight’s show. Poor Things had a rich bounty that was better than my projections and pretty much everyone else’s.

The Zone of Interest, as widely projected, is the International Feature Film. In another slight surprise, it also was named for Best Sound over Oppenheimer (got that wrong).

Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and Zone were the only films with multiple golden pickups. Other BP nominees that nabbed a win were The Holdovers where Da’Vine Randolph completed her sweep in Supporting Actress and Anatomy of a Fall in Original Screenplay and American Fiction in Adapted Screenplay (got those right). Same goes for Barbie‘s sole trophy in Original Song with “What Was I Made For?” by Billie Eilish over “I’m Just Ken” (though Ryan Gosling’s performance of the tune was perhaps the evening’s highlight).

I correctly called 20 Days in Mariupol for Documentary Feature while The Boy and the Heron is Animated Feature over Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (I went with Spidey). Another wrong projection: The Creator didn’t take Visual Effects as that went to Godzilla Minus One.

All in all, I went 14 for 20. I will note that in the six races I missed, my runners-up ended up with each one. And in perhaps the biggest shocker of the night, the ceremony actually wrapped up early and that was with host Jimmy Kimmel (who’s good at this assignment) stretching in the home stretch.

It’s been a blast trying to figure out the 96th Academy Awards! Now onto the 97th…

FINAL WIN TALLY

7 Wins

Oppenheimer

4 Wins

Poor Things

2 Wins

The Zone of Interest

1 Win

American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Boy and the Heron, Godzilla Minus One, The Holdovers, 20 Days in Mariupol