I didn’t anticipate mentioning the 2000 feature Billy Elliot in my BAFTA recap covering 2025 pictures, but these voters are dancing to the beat of a different drum so here we are! That’s one surprise of several that developed at the British equivalent of the Academy Awards. It was not surprising that Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another led the way and (yes) won one BAFTA after another. However, the outcome of the acting races provided legit unexpected results and might have a hand in reshaping what happens at the 98th Oscars.
As far as results, I went 14 for 23 in my projections and 1 for 4 in the acting derbies. I correctly forecasted Best Film and Director BAFTAs for One Battle After Another and its maker Anderson. Same goes for its victories in Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography. It also took the Editing prize where I had F1.
In Supporting Actor, Battle‘s Sean Penn emerged in a field where I picked Stellan Skasgård as the winner and had Penn’s costar Benicio del Toro as the runner-up. We now have 3 different Supporting Actor victors in the three highest profiles precursors – Penn at BAFTA, Skarsgård at the Globes, and Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) at Critics Choice. Let’s see what SAG Actor does next weekend as this race is wide open.
Battle did nothing but help its status as BP Oscar frontrunner. Yet Sinners didn’t take a significant hit. It won Original Screenplay and I went with Sentimental Value. I correctly picked it for Original Score.
In Supporting Actress, it represented a One Battle miss and a Sinners pickup. I went with Teyana Taylor, but Wunmi Mosaku lodged her first major recognition. Like Supporting Actor, we now have a trio of recipients among the precursors – Mosaku at BAFTA, Taylor at the Globes, and Amy Madigan (Weapons) at Critics Choice. Once again, SAG Actor will be closely viewed in another wide open acting derby. Simply put, I can’t remember the last time both supporting fields were this unpredictable.
That’s not the case in Actress where Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) predictably did a podium walk as her chances at a seasonal sweep are looking strong.
We will not be seeing a Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) sweep. I had him taking Actor with Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) as runner-up. BAFTA went their own way with Robert Aramayo (I Swear). He was additionally named the BAFTA Rising Star. Aramayo is not nominated at Oscar. The last time a BAFTA Best Actor wasn’t among the Academy’s quintet? That would be Jamie Bell in the title role of… you guessed it (!) Billy Elliot.
Here’s where I managed to get it right – Hamnet for Outstanding British Film and Sentimental Value having a subpar day with its sole win for Film Not in the English Language. I was correct in calling Zootopia 2 as Best Animated Film. Same goes for Frankenstein with the trio of Costume Design, Makeup & Hair, and Production Design and F1 in Sound and Avatar: Fire and Ash in Special Visual Effects.
Here’s where I whiffed. I will pat myself on the back for predicting The Perfect Neighbor would not be the documentary that BAFTA selected. Unfortunately I went with 2000 Meters to Andrivka and not Mr. Nobody Against Putin. Could it emerge as a spoiler to a Neighbor Oscar prize?
Pillion looked like the pick for Outstanding British Debut by a Writer, Director or Producer, but BAFTA chose My Father’s Shadow. Same with Children’s & Family Film where Zootopia 2 looked probable, but Boong was listed in the envelope. In Casting (always a tough race to project), I Swear emerged over Sentimental Value and my runner-up One Battle.
So what’s the biggest takeaway? I’d say the chaos occurring in the supporting competitions and that Battle vs. Sinners appears to still be a battle.
Today’s ceremony bestowed these numbers of wins for these movies:
6 Wins
One Battle After Another
3 Wins
Frankenstein, Sinners
2 Wins
Hamnet, I Swear
1 Win
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Boong, F1, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Father’s Shadow, Sentimental Value, Zootopia 2
I’ll have winner predictions up for SAG Actor (happening a week from today) on the blog soon!
The 79th BAFTAs (Britain’s version of the Academy Awards) occur this Sunday and they are often a reliable precursor to what Oscar voters will do. For example, they are 8 for 8 in the past two cycles in forecasting the acting races. On the flip side, in 2022, none of the four BAFTA acting recipients took the Oscar. The previous five cycles has seen the BAFTA Best Film match with Best Picture only twice (Nomadland, Oppenheimer). In 2021, the Brits honored The Power of the Dog over CODA (which wasn’t nominated). The following year it was All Quiet on the Western Front instead of Everything Everywhere All at Once. Last year, BAFTA selected Conclave and not Anora.
That’s why it’s very tempting to go with Hamnet over arguable frontrunners One Battle After Another and Sinners in the top competition. I almost did so, but ultimately decided with roll with Battle (with a low degree of confidence). Let’s walk through each race one by one with my winner projections and a runner-up.
Best Film
Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners
WINNER: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Runner-Up: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Best Actor
Robert Aramayo (I Swear), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)
WINNER: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Runner-Up: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Best Supporting Actress
Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Carey Mulligan (The Ballad of Wallis Island), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), Emily Watson (Hamnet)
WINNER: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Peter Mullan (I Swear), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
WINNER: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Runner-Up: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Best Original Screenplay
I Swear, Marty Supreme, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners
WINNER: Sentimental Value
Runner-Up: Sinners
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bugonia, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Pillion
WINNER: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Outstanding British Film
28 Years Later, The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Die My Love, H is for Hawk, Hamnet, I Swear, Mr Burton, Pillion, Steve
WINNER: Hamnet
Runner-Up: Pillion
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
The Ceremony, My Father’s Shadow, Pillion, A Want in Her, Wasteman
WINNER: Pillion
Runner-Up: My Father’s Shadow
Best Film Not in the English Language
It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab
WINNER: Sentimental Value
Runner-Up: The Secret Agent
Best Animated Film
Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2
WINNER: Zootopia 2
Runner-Up: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Best Children’s & Family Film
Arco, Boong, Lilo & Stitch, Zootopia 2
WINNER: Zootopia 2
Runner-Up: Arco
Best Documentary
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor
WINNER: 2000 Meters to Andrivka
Runner-Up: The Perfect Neighbor
Best Casting
I Swear, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners
WINNER: Sentimental Value
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Best Cinematography
Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams
WINNER: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Sinners
Best Costume Design
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
WINNER: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Best Editing
F1, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
WINNER: F1
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Best Make Up & Hair
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
WINNER: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good
Best Original Score
Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners
WINNER: Sinners
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Best Production Design
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
WINNER: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Best Sound
F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare
WINNER: F1
Runner-Up: Sinners
Best Special Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, How to Train Your Dragon, The Lost Bus
WINNER: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Runner-Up: F1
That adds up to these movies generating numbers of victories:
5 Wins
One Battle After Another
4 Wins
Sentimental Value
3 Wins
Frankenstein
2 Wins
F1, Hamnet, Zootopia 2
1 Win
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Marty Supreme, Pillion, Sinners
I’ll have a recap up Sunday with how I performed and my thoughts on how it might impact the Oscars…
The 78th Directors Guild of America (DGA) Awards occur on Saturday evening and there’s some genuine intrigue in the biggest race of all. Their honoree for Feature Film has correlated with the Academy’s Best Director recipient 22 out of 25 times in the 21st century. The exceptions are 2002 when the DGA victor was Rob Marshall (Chicago) and the Oscar winner was Roman Polanski (The Pianist), 2012 – Ben Affleck, Argo (DGA) and Ang Lee, Life of Pi (Oscar), and 2019 – Sam Mendes, 1917 (DGA) and Bong Joon-ho (Parasite).
Why the drama? This DGA ceremony could provide a major clue as to what will be taking Best Picture in a few weeks. There are three film related competitions at DGA. Let’s walk through them one by one with a winner projection and a runner-up.
Feature Film
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
Per usual, 4 of the 5 DGA hopefuls are included the Oscar quintet. The Academy nominated Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) over del Toro. This is a two-man showdown between Anderson and Coogler. The thought process for some time is that Battle is a safe(ish) bet for Best Picture. However, the record shattering 16 nods that Sinners nabbed has shifted the narrative and it is seen as a legit possibility. That momentum could be kicked into a higher gear if Coogler emerges at DGA. It’s tempting to pick him. Yet Sinners has another shot at precursor love via the SAG Actor Awards where a Best Ensemble win seems even more realistic. I’m still going with the Directors Guild favoring PTA – not just for Battle but for a highly celebrated body of work over the past three decades. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice did the same. That said, if Coogler achieves the upset, Sinners will immediately become the frontrunner for BP at the Oscars.
Predicted Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Documentary Film
Nominees: Mstyslav Chernov (2000 Meters to Andrivka), Geeta Gandbhir (The Perfect Neighbor), Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni (Cutting Through Rocks), Elizabeth Lo (Mistress Dispeller), Laura Poitras and Mark Obenhaus (Cover-Up)
While I wouldn’t totally discount Chernov or the team behind Cover-Up, The Perfect Neighbor is the most visible of the five docs thanks to widespread Netflix exposure. That should be enough for the W. It is worthy of mention that the DGA’s recipient often doesn’t match the Academy Documentary Feature Film awardee so this is more of a question mark than Feature Film.
Predicted Winner: Geeta Ghandbhir, The Perfect Neighbor
Runner-Up: Mstyslav Chernov (2000 Meters to Andrivka)
First-Time Feature Film
Nominees: Hasan Hadi (The President’s Cake), Harry Lighton (Pillion), Charlie Polinger (The Plague), Alex Russell (Lurker), Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby)
None of the pics here received any Academy attention though Sorry, Baby probably came closest. Many had it pegged for an Original Screenplay nom. While Lighton and Polinger are viable, I’d stick with Sorry.
Nominations for the 79th BAFTAs were unveiled five days after the Academy revealed their list. The Brits equivalent of the Oscars can often indicate which nominees and pictures are (or aren’t) having momentum in the general awards space.
Overall I went 92 for 122 (75%) in the feature-length categories. Let’s walk through each race with the hopefuls in contention, how I did, and some initial thoughts.
Best Film
Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
No surprise here as One Battle led all nominees with 14 and Sinners right behind with 13. It will probably come down to those two pics with Battle having an edge. I would say Hamnet is a spoiler but it missed some key races.
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
How I Did: 6/6 (!)
The best film five and Lanthimos as I predicted. PTA is the favorite.
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
How I Did: 5/6
I gotta stop leaving out Kate Hudson. She’s in over my upset selection of Andrea Riseborough (Dragonfly). Bet on Buckley.
Best Actor
Robert Aramayo (I Swear), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)
How I Did: 5/6
Aramayo gets in over Pillion‘s Harry Melling. Chalamet could continue his sweep unless DiCaprio or Hawke upset.
Best Supporting Actress
Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Carey Mulligan (The Ballad of Wallis Island), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), Emily Watson (Hamnet)
How I Did: 5/6
A genuine surprise as Amy Madigan (Weapons) is left out in favor of Mulligan. This is likely between Lilleass and Taylor.
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Peter Mullan (I Swear), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
How I Did: 5/6
I had Stellan’s son Alexander Skarsgård (Pillion) joining the sextet and not Mullan. It’s Stellan who probably has the best odds.
Best Original Screenplay
I Swear, Marty Supreme, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners
How I Did: 4/5
The Secret Agent over Blue Moon. This is a Value v. Sinners derby.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bugonia, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Pillion
How I Did: 4/5
Ballad over Frankenstein with OBAA out front.
Best Animated Feature
Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2
How I Did: 1/3
I whiffed here. First of all, this race typically has four nominees. I had Arco, Demon Slayer, and KPop Demon Hunters and not Elio or Amélie (which was frankly an oversight on my part). It could win and so could Zootopia 2 which is the only flick I correctly called.
Best Documentary
Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, 2000 Meters to Andrivka
How I Did: 4/5
Some retribution after my 1/5 showing at the Oscars. I had Ocean with David Attenborough and not Cover-Up. I wouldn’t assume Neighbor takes this even though it’s the Oscar frontrunner. I actually think all five are viable.
Best Film Not in the English Language
It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
This matches the Academy’s quintet and, like that show, this is probably Agent or Value.
Best Casting
I Swear, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners
How I Did: 3/5
Hamnet (in a notable miss) or Sirāt are out with I Swear and Supreme in. A likely Sinners trophy.
Best Cinematography
Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams
How I Did: 4/5
Frankenstein and not Hamnet in another interesting omission. I’ll note this is the only nom for Train Dreams as this should come down to Battle or Sinners.
Best Costume Design
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
How I Did: 4/5
Unlike Oscar, Wicked managed to get some BAFTA attention (albeit limited). I had Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale and not Supreme (which had a solid day). Frankenstein may take this.
Best Editing
F1, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
How I Did: 3/5
Another Battle/Sinners race as F1 and Dynamite show up over Bugonia and (you guessed it) Hamnet.
Best Make Up and Hair
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
How I Did: 3/5
A strange quintet as Hamnet gets an unexpected mention as does Supreme and not One Battle or (more surprisingly) The Smashing Machine. This should go to Frankenstein.
Best Original Score
Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Sinners is the frontrunner.
Best Production Design
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
How I Did: 3/5
I had Bugonia and Wicked instead of Marty and Battle. Another probable win for Frankenstein.
Best Sound
F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare
How I Did: 3/5
Frankenstein/Warfare over Avatar: Fire and Ash/Wicked. Think Sinners with F1 spoiler possibility.
Best Special Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, How to Train Your Dragon, The Lost Bus
How I Did: 4/5
Dragon, not Superman as Avatar is ahead.
Outstanding British Film
28 Years Later, The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Die, My Love, Hamnet, H is for Hawk, I Swear, Mr. Burton, Pillion, Steve
How I Did: 7/10
I went with Ballad of a Small Player, The Choral, and Warfare over Jones, Burton, and Steve. One would think Hamnet takes this though I Swear is viable as an upset pick.
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer
The Ceremony, My Father’s Shadow, Pillion, A Want in Her, Wasteman
How I Did: 3/5
Ceremony/Want over Oceans with David Attenborough and Urchin. Pillion should win.
Best Children’s + Family Film
Arco, Boong, Lilo + Stitch, Zootopia 2
How I Did: 2/4
Grow and How to Train Your Dragon miss and not Boong and Lilo with Zootopia out front.
That works out to the following movies getting these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
One Battle After Another
13 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominatons
Hamnet, Marty Supreme
8 Nominations
Frankenstein, Sentimental Value
5 Nominations
Bugonia, I Swear
3 Nominations
The Ballad of Wallis Island, F1, Pillion
2 Nominations
The Secret Agent, Wicked: For Good, Zootopia 2
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Cover-Up, Blue Moon, Boong, The Ceremony, Die, My Love, Elio, H is for Hawk, A House of Dynamite, How to Train Your Dragon, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, It Was Just an Accident, Lilo & Stitch, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Lost Bus, Mr. Burton, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Father’s Shadow, The Perfect Neighbor, Sirāt, Song Sung Blue, Steve, Train Dreams, The Voice of Hind Rajab, A Want in Her, Warfare, Wasteman
The BAFTAs air February 22nd and you can expect a recap on the blog when that happens.
Nominations for the 79th BAFTAs (the British equivalent of the Oscars) are out tomorrow prior to the February 22nd ceremony hosted by Alan Cumming. Unlike previous years, BAFTA nods are hitting after the Academy’s picks which were out last week.
For a blogger who concentrates primarily on the Oscar derby, it makes this announcement a tad anticlimactic since I’m not weighing them against what I anticipate will occur on Oscar nom morning. Nevertheless I’m giving you my forecast for all feature-length races with an alternate named in each. For the directing and acting competitions, BAFTA goes with six nominees. For Outstanding British Film, it is ten. There are four in Animated Film and Children’s & Family Film. In all others (including Best Film), we’re talking five. Got all that? Good. Let’s get to it!
Best Film
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Alternate – Bugonia
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Alternate – Kaouther Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajab
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Andrea Riseborough, Dragonfly
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Alternate – Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Harry Melling, Pillion
Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
Alternate – Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Best Supporting Actress
Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Emily Watson, Hamnet
Alternate – Brenda Blethyn, Dragonfly
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Alexander Skarsgård, Pillion
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Alternate – Andrew Scott, Blue Moon
Best Original Screenplay
Blue Moon
I Swear
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Alternate – It Was Just an Accident
Best Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Pillion
Alternate – Train Dreams
Best Animated Film
Arco
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba– The Movie: Infinity Castle
KPop Demon Hunters
Zootopia 2
Alternate – Elio
Best Documentary
Apocalypse in the Tropics
Mr. Nobody Against Putin
Ocean with David Attenborough
The Perfect Neighbor
2000 Meters to Andrivka
Alternate – Becoming Led Zeppelin
Best Film Not in the English Language
It Was Just an Accident
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sirāt
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Alternate – No Other Choice
Best Casting
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Sirāt
Alternate – Marty Supreme
Best Cinematography
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Train Dreams
Alternate – Frankenstein
Best Costume Design
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Marty Supreme
Best Editing
Bugonia
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Alternate – F1
Best Make Up & Hair
Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Bugonia
Best Original Score
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Alternate – Marty Supreme
Best Production Design
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – One Battle After Another
Best Sound
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Best Special Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Frankenstein
The Lost Bus
Superman
Alternate – Wicked: For Good
Outstanding British Film
28 Years Later
Ballad of a Small Player
The Ballad of Wallis Island
The Choral
Die, My Love
Hamnet
H is for Hawk
I Swear
Pillion
Warfare
Alternate – Steve
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer
My Father’s Shadow
Ocean with David Attenborough
Pillion
Urchin
Wasteman
Alternate – The Ceremony
Best Children’s & Family Film
Arco
Grow
How to Train Your Dragon
Zootopia 2
Alternate – Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
That works out to these movies nabbing these numbers in terms of nominations:
14 Nominations
One Battle After Another
13 Nominations
Hamnet, Sinners
8 Nominations
Sentimental Value
7 Nominations
Bugonia, Frankenstein, Marty Supreme
5 Nominations
Pillion
4 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
2 Nominations
Arco, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, F1, I Swear, Ocean with David Attenborough, Sirāt, Zootopia 2
1 Nomination
Apocalypse in the Tropics, Ballad of a Small Player, The Ballad of Wallis Island, The Choral, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Die, My Love, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale, Dragonfly, Grow, H is for Hawk, How to Train Your Dragon, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, It Was Just an Accident, KPop Demon Hunters, The Lost Bus, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Father’s Shadow, The Perfect Neighbor, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Train Dreams, 28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Urchin, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Warfare, Wasteman, Weapons
It has been nearly a month (!) since my last Oscar predictions on December 17th and a whole lotta activity has happened since. The Critics Choice and Golden Globe Awards aired. SAG Actor noms and BAFTA long lists were unveiled. The Directors and Producers Guild gave us their contenders. And we arrive at my penultimate picks for the 98th Academy Awards. You can expect my final predictions on Sunday or Monday.
So what’s changed since the week before Christmas? Well, you have to read below for that!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+2)
6. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)
9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (E)
12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Sirāt (PR: 13) (E)
14. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
15. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (E)
5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Oliver Laxe, Sirāt (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Clint Bentley, Train Dreams
Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (E)
10. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tessa Thompson, Hedda
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 6) (-1)
8. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)
9. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
10. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Josh O’Connor, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)
3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Weapons (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-3)
10. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nuremberg (PR: 8) (E)
9. Pillion (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Hedda
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Sirāt (PR: 4) (E)
5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)
7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)
8. Belén (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sound of Falling (PR: 10) (+1)
10. All That’s Left of You (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The President’s Cake
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. In Your Dreams (PR: 6) (E)
7. Scarlet (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Endless Cookie (PR: 8) (E)
9. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (-2)
10. DemonSlayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (+1)
4. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Seeds (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 10) (E)
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Sirāt (PR: 9) (E)
10. Weapons (PR: 10) (E)
Bst Cinematography
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sirāt (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Bugonia (PR: 9) (E)
10. F1 (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hedda (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Sirāt
No Other Choice
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Kokuho (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Ugly Stepsister (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Alto Knights (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nuremberg (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sirāt (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Our Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Drive” from F1
“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Phoenician Scheme
Hedda
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. F1 (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)
3. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sirāt (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (E)
10. Superman (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. F1 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Superman (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Lost Bus (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilties:
6. Sinners (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Tron: Ares (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jurassic World: Rebirth (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Electric State (PR: 10) (E)
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
One Battle After Another
13 Nominations
Sinners
10 Nominations
Hamnet
9 Nominations
Frankenstein, Sentimental Value
7 Nominations
Marty Supreme
5 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
4 Nominations
It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams
3 Nominations
Bugonia, F1, Sirāt
2 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, KPop Demon Hunters
1 Nomination
Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kokuho, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Lost Bus, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The Smashing Machine, Superman, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Weapons, Zootopia 2
Harry Melling and Alexander Skarsgård enter into an unconventional relationship in the British drama Pillion. From writer/director Harry Lighton in his feature debut, costars include Douglas Hodge, Lesley Sharp, Jack Shears, and Anthony Welsh.
After screening at Cannes last month, A24 picked up stateside distribution rights. At the French fest, the film won the Best Screenplay prize. Melling and Skarsgård are both being praised. It will be interesting to see if they’re both campaigned for in lead Actor.
A24 might be preoccupied with other titles including Marty Supreme and The Smashing Machine. I wouldn’t completely discount an Original Screenplay nod, but its distributor would need to make it a priority and that remains to be seen. Pillion should perform stronger at BAFTA where Outstanding British Film, Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer, and writing and acting noms could occur. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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