Tag: Pig

Oscar Predictions: The Surfer

The Surfer was first screened nearly a year ago at Cannes as it makes it way to screens on May 2nd. From Vivarium director Lorcan Finnegan, Nicolas Cage stars in what numerous critics are saying is a solid B-movie psychological thriller. The supporting cast includes Julian McMahon, Nic Cassim, Miranda Tapsell, and Alexander Bertrand.

The Aussie set production stands at 87% on Rotten Tomatoes with Metacritic at 68. Reviews are singling out Cage’s performance. In recent years, he’s flirted with awards inclusion via Pig and Dream Scenario (it’s been over two decades since his last nom for Adaptation). Don’t expect The Surfer to catch a wave of momentum despite appreciation for its lead and his reportedly bonkers yet effective work. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – A Quiet Place: Day One

Horror prequel A Quiet Place: Day One is out this weekend with a fresh creative team behind and in front of the camera. Michael Sarnoski, best known for Pig with Nicolas Cage, directs with Lupita Nyong’o, Joseph Quinn, and Alex Wolff entering the franchise. Djimon Hounsou reprises his turn from A Quiet Place Part II.

The review embargo is up and it is slightly behind its two predecessors. 2018’s original posted 96% on RT with 2021’s follow-up at 91%. Day One currently stands at 86%. There is particular praise for Nyong’o who probably came close to a Best Actress nom in this genre with 2019’s Us.

At the 91st Academy Awards, A Quiet Place was up for Sound Editing (this was right before Sound Editing and Sound Mixing were combined into Best Sound). It ultimately lost to Bohemian Rhapsody and was its sole nod. Side note: Emily Blunt took home a surprise Supporting Actress SAG prize for the pic while missing the Oscar cut.

Part II did not get a Sound mention three years later as Dune was the victor. Day‘s only shot on Oscar night is Sound and it’s a coin flip whether it gets in. You’re safe to assume it won’t take the statue even if it makes the quintet thanks to Dune: Part Two. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

A Quiet Place: Day One Box Office Prediction

Michael Sarnoski, director of Pig, takes over a highly profitable horror franchise from John Krasinski with A Quiet Place: Day One. Paramount is hoping the prequel continues to bring home the bacon. With Krasinski (who just released the family friendly IF) and spouse Emily Blunt (recently in The Fall Guy) out of the mix, Lupita Nyong’o, Joseph Quinn, Alex Wolff, and Djimon Hounsou (a returnee from the second entry) headline.

In the spring of 2018, A Quiet Place made loud noises at multiplexes with a $50 million beginning and $188 million overall domestic haul. The 2021 sequel (delayed a year due to the pandemic) earned $48 million out of the gate with $160 million total stateside.

Scary movies have seen underwhelming premieres for the most part in 2024. Day One should be an exception. That said, I don’t see a compelling reason why this would significantly top its predecessors. A $50 million plus debut is possible. I suspect it will fall in line with its predecessor from three years ago in the mid to high 40s range.

A Quiet Place: Day One opening weekend prediction: $46.3 million

For my Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 prediction, click here:

Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 Box Office Prediction

For my Kinds of Kindness prediction, click here:

Kinds of Kindness Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Dream Scenario

Kristoffer Borgli’s dark comedy Dream Scenario premiered at the Toronto Film Festival prior to its November 10th theatrical release. The A24 effort casts Nicolas Cage as a nerdy professor who inexplicably starts showing up in people’s dreams. Julianne Nicholson, Michael Cera, Tim Meadows, Dylan Gelula, and Dylan Baker costar.

The Dream reviews are mostly on the plus side with an 84% Rotten Tomatoes rating. There’s really only two categories where I see Oscar possibilities. Mr. Cage is being praised for his work. He could be in line for a third Best Actor nod behind 1995’s Leaving Las Vegas (for which he won) and 2002’s Adaptation. He likely came close to his third nod for 2021’s Pig. Yet as I’ve already discussed on this blog, there’s a quintet of contenders who already look strong in the race. That would be Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), and Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers). It almost seems too easy, right? That’s why I figure at least one of those gentlemen get snubbed. Cage could fill the gap, but there’s other hopefuls in the mix. I think his chances to be named in the Musical/Comedy competition at the Golden Globes is stronger.

Original Screenplay is feasible and perhaps even more so if A24 campaigns hard for it. Nominations in those two derbies are the dream scenario with the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent

Nicolas Cage was probably close to a third Oscar nomination for last year’s Pig and now he’s earning kudos for playing himself in The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent. The meta comedy finds Cage in a sticky situation when he accepts a hefty payday to attend the birthday party of a billionaire drug lord. Pedro Pascal is that financier and the supporting cast also includes Sharon Horgan, Ike Barinholtz, Neil Patrick Harris, and Tiffany Haddish. Tom Gormican directs.

Prior to its April 22nd release, Weight dropped at South by Southwest and reviews currently stand at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Cage has become known for alternating acclaimed indie projects with dreadful direct to streaming material. This certainly appears to fall into the former designation.

Could awards voters take note? It might be a bit too out there, but Original Screenplay is not out of the question. A Best Comedy nod from Critics Choice next year is also a decent possibility. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

2021 Critics Choice Awards WINNER Predictions

The 27th Critics Choice Awards air this Sunday evening and they’re another often reliable indicator for who and what may win on Oscar night. As I have with SAG and the Golden Globes, I am giving you my winner predictions along with the runner-up pick.

Let’s get to it and I’ll have a recap up either Sunday evening or Monday!

Best Picture

Nominees:

Belfast

CODA

Don’t Look Up

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

tick, tick… Boom!

West Side Story

Predicted Winner:

The Power of the Dog

Runner-Up:

Dune

Best Director

Nominees:

Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley

Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

Denis Villeneuve, Dune

Predicted Winner:

Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Runner-Up:

Denis Villeneuve, Dune

Best Actress

Nominees:

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza

Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Kristen Stewart, Spencer

Predicted Winner:

Kristen Stewart, Spencer

Runner-Up:

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Best Actor

Nominees:

Nicolas Cage, Pig

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Peter Dinklage, Cyrano

Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… Boom!

Will Smith, King Richard

Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Predicted Winner:

Will Smith, King Richard

Runner-Up:

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees:

Caitríona Balfe, Belfast

Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Ann Dowd, Mass

Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

Rita Moreno, West Side Story

Predicted Winner:

Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Runner-Up:

Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees:

Jamie Dornan, Belfast

Ciaran Hinds, Belfast

Troy Kotsur, CODA

Jared Leto, House of Gucci

J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Predicted Winner:

Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Runner-Up:

Troy Kotsur, CODA

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees:

Being the Ricardos

Belfast

Don’t Look Up

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Predicted Winner:

Licorice Pizza

Runner-Up:

Belfast

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees:

CODA

Dune

The Lost Daughter

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Predicted Winner:

The Power of the Dog

Runner-Up:

CODA

Best Animated Feature

Nominees:

Encanto

Flee

Luca

The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Raya and the Last Dragon

Predicted Winner:

Encanto

Runner-Up:

The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Best Comedy

Nominees:

Barb and Star Go To Vista Del Mar

Don’t Look Up

Free Guy

The French Dispatch

Licorice Pizza

Predicted Winner:

The French Dispatch

Runner-Up:

Licorice Pizza

Best Foreign Language Film

Nominees:

Drive My Car

Flee

The Hand of God

A Hero

The Worst Person in the World

Predicted Winner:

Drive My Car

Runner-Up:

The Worst Person in the World

Best Young Actor/Actress

Nominees:

Jude Hill, Belfast

Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza

Emilia Jones, CODA

Woody Norman, C’Mon C’Mon

Saniyya Sidney, King Richard

Rachel Zegler, West Side Story

Predicted Winner:

Rachel Zegler, West Side Story

Runner-Up:

Emilia Jones, CODA

Best Acting Ensemble

Nominees:

Belfast

Don’t Look Up

The Harder They Fall

Licorice Pizza

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Predicted Winner:

The Power of the Dog

Runner-Up:

Belfast

Best Cinematography

Nominees:

Belfast

Dune

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story

Predicted Winner:

The Power of the Dog

Runner-Up:

Dune

Best Costume Design

Nominees:

Cruella

Dune

House of Gucci

Nightmare Alley

West Side Story

Predicted Winner:

Cruella

Runner-Up:

Dune

Best Editing

Nominees:

Belfast

Dune

Licorice Pizza

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Predicted Winner:

Dune

Runner-Up:

West Side Story

Best Hair and Makeup

Nominees:

Cruella

Dune

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

House of Gucci

Nightmare Alley

Predicted Winner:

House of Gucci

Runner-Up:

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Best Production Design

Nominees:

Belfast

Dune

The French Dispatch

Nightmare Alley

West Side Story

Predicted Winner:

Nightmare Alley

Runner-Up:

Dune

Best Score

Nominees:

Don’t Look Up

Dune

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

Spencer

Predicted Winner:

Dune

Runner-Up:

The Power of the Dog

Best Song

“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up

“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto

“Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall

“Be Alive” from King Richard

“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die

Predicted Winner:

“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up 

Runner-Up:

“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto

Best Visual Effects

Nominees:

Dune

The Matrix Resurrections

Nightmare Alley

No Time to Die

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Predicted Winner:

Dune

Runner-Up:

No Time to Die

That equates to the following pictures garnering these numbers for wins:

6 Wins

The Power of the Dog

3 Wins

Dune

2 Wins

West Side Story

1 Win

Cruella, Don’t Look Up, Drive My Car, Encanto, The French Dispatch, House of Gucci, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, Spencer

2021 Oscar Predictions: January 28th Edition

The DGA and PGA nominations are out as of yesterday and it’s caused some reflection as I pen my penultimate predictions for the 2021 Oscars. With Being the Ricardos and Tick, Tick… Boom! nabbing the final two BP spots at PGA (the other 8 were pretty obvious), I feel it necessary to include at least one of them. On the other hand, I’m reluctant to include both as PGA and the Academy’s BP selection rarely match. I’m leaning toward Boom! and it vaults back into the top ten. Yet I’m continuing to keep The Tragedy of Macbeth in the mix despite its lack of recent precursor love.

The DGA quintet and the Best Director nominees haven’t mirrored each other since 2009. So it’s a risk to go with DGA’s five. However, as of this moment, I’m going with it.

Another big change is in Best Actor as I’m including Javier Bardem in Ricardos for the first time (over Leonardo DiCaprio for Don’t Look Up). There’s also a change in Supporting Actor as I’m putting Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) in for his inaugural appearance. That knocks out Jared Leto for Gucci.

The last big piece of the precursor puzzle arrives Thursday with BAFTA nods. On Friday (02/04), I will make my FINAL Oscar calls before nomination morning on Tuesday, February 8th.

Here’s how I have things standing as of now:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune (PR: 4) (+1)

4. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)

6. King Richard (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (-1)

8. CODA (PR: 8) (E)

9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 11) (+2)

10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Being the Ricardos (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Drive My Car (PR: 13) (+1)

13. House of Gucci (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Lost Daughter (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

No Time to Die

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2) (E)

3. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)

4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 4) (E)

5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 9) (E)

10. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 1) (E)

2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)

4. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7) (E)

8. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 2) (E)

2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

3. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)

4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)

5. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (E)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive My Car (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 4) (E)

5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (E)

9. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

2. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)

5. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (+1)

8. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)

2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)

4. Being the Ricardos (PR: 4) (E)

5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)

7. Parallel Mothers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mass (PR: 8) (E)

9. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (E)

10. A Hero (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Pig

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)

3. CODA (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Drive My Car (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)

8. Passing (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Last Duel 

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)

2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)

4. Luca (PR: 4) (E)

5. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Belle (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sing 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Vivo (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

My Sunny Maad

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Drive My Car (PR: 1) (E)

2. A Hero (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)

4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. I’m Your Man (PR: 6) (E)

7. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Great Freedom (PR: 9) (E)

10. Playground (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Good Boss

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Rescue (PR: 2) (E)

3. Procession (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The First Wave (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ascension (PR: 6) (E)

7. Faya Dayi (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Attica (PR: 7) (-1)

9. President (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Velvet Underground (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

In the Same Breath 

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)

5. West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)

7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (E)

8. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (E)

9. Spencer (PR: 10) (+1)

10. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

C’Mon C’Mon

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)

3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)

4. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spencer (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Cyrano (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. Belfast (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. West Side Story (PR: 2) (-4)

7. King Richard (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (+1)

10. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Being the Ricardos

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)

4. Cruella (PR: 4) (E)

5. Coming 2 America (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (+1)

8. West Side Story (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Cyrano (PR: 9) (E)

10. No Time to Die (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

3. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Spencer (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Parallel Mothers (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Encanto (PR: 7) (-1)

9. King Richard (PR: 9) (E)

10. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 2) (-1)

4. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (+2)

5. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 8) (E)

9. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: 10) (E)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (+1)

3. West Side Story (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Belfast (PR: 6) (E)

7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Spencer (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Cyrano (PR: 10) (E)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)

3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (+1)

5. No Time to Die (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (-1)

8. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)

3. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 3) (E)

4. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 4) (E)

5. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Time to Die (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Free Guy (PR: 7) (E)

8. Eternals (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (PR: 9) (E)

10. Black Widow (PR: 10) (E)

This all equates to the following numbers of nominations for these pictures:

11 Nominations

Dune

9 Nominations

Belfast, The Power of the Dog

8 Nominations

West Side Story

5 Nominations

Don’t Look Up, Licorice Pizza

4 Nominations

King Richard, The Tragedy of Macbeth

3 Nominations

Being the Ricardos, CODA, Flee, House of Gucci, Tick, Tick… Boom!

2 Nominations

Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Lost Daughter, Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die, Spencer

1 Nomination

C’Mon C’Mon, Coming 2 America, Drive My Car, The First Wave, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Passing, Procession, Ray and the Last Dragon, The Rescue, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, The Tender Bar, The Worst Person in the World

2021 Oscar Predictions: January 22nd Edition

In two weeks time, House of Gucci has gone from unranked in my top 15 Best Picture possibilities to making the cut in 10th. Whether it stays there – who knows? As I see it, the top 8 look relatively safe and then it could be a free for all for the last two spots. Gucci‘s rise means Tick, Tick… Boom! drops out.

I’ve also made way for The Lone Screenplay nominee which has occurred every year since 2001. C’Mon C’Mon is now included in Original Screenplay and that knocks out King Richard. I wrote about The Lone Screenplay history of the 21st century here:

The Lone Screenplay Nominee: An Oscar Prediction Analysis

You can read all the movement below and I’ll have a penultimate update next week before unveiling my final predictions shortly before the February 8th announcement!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune (PR: 4) (E)

5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)

6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (+2)

7. King Richard (PR: 6) (-1)

8. CODA (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (+1)

10. House of Gucci (PR: 12) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Being the Ricardos (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Drive My Car (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Lost Daughter (PR: 14) (E)

15. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nightmare Alley

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2) (E)

3. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 1) (E)

2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)

2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

3. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)

4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 6) (E)

7. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (E)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive My Car (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 4) (E)

5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 7) (E)

8. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

2. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (E)

9. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (E)

10. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)

2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)

4. Being the Ricardos (PR: 5) (+1)

5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. King Richard (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Parallel Mothers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mass (PR: 8) (E)

9. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (E)

10. Pig (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A Hero

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)

3. CODA (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Dune (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Drive My Car (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Passing (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Last Duel (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)

2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)

4. Luca (PR: 4) (E)

5. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Belle (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (E)

8. Vivo (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 10) (+1)

10. My Sunny Maad (PR: 8) (-2)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Drive My Car (PR: 1) (E)

2. A Hero (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)

4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 8) (E)

9. Great Freedom (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Good Boss (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Rescue (PR: 2) (E)

3. Summer of Soul (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Procession (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The First Wave (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ascension (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Attica (PR: 6) (-1)

8. President (PR: 8) (E)

9. Faya Dayi (PR: 9) (E)

10. In the Same Breath (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Julia

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

3. Belfast (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (+1)

5. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)

7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (-1)

9. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Spencer (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)

3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)

4. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (E)

5. Spencer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Cyrano (PR: 8) (E)

9. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)

3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (E)

5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (-2)

8. King Richard (PR: 8) (E)

9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The French Dispatch

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)

4. Cruella (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Coming 2 America (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. West Side Story (PR: 8) (+2)

7. The Suicide Squad (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cyrano (PR: 9) (E)

10. No Time to Die (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)

4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)

5. Parallel Mothers (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spencer (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Encanto (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-1)

9. King Richard (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 9) (+2)

8. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: 10) (E)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (E)

4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Belfast (PR: 6) (E)

7. Licorice Pizza (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Spencer (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cyrano (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Cruella

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)

3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Time to Die (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 8) (+2)

7. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 9) (+1)

9. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)

3. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 5) (+1)

5. No Time to Die (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Free Guy (PR: 7) (E)

8. Eternals (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Black Widow (PR: 10) (E)

That equates to these films achieving these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune

9 Nominations

Belfast, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story

5 Nominations

House of Gucci, Licorice Pizza

4 Nominations

Don’t Look Up, King Richard, The Tragedy of Macbeth

3 Nominations

CODA, Flee, No Time to Die

2 Nominations

Being the Ricardos, Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Lost Daughter, Spencer, Tick, Tick… Boom!

1 Nomination

C’Mon C’Mon, Coming 2 America, Drive My Car, The First Wave, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Nightmare Alley, Parallel Mothers, Passing, Procession, Raya and the Last Dragon, The Rescue, Respect, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World

2021 Oscar Predictions: January 14th Edition

My first Oscar predictions following the Golden Globes bestowing their winners and the SAG Award nods comes with not a whole lot of changes in who and what I’m actually predicting in the major categories.

However, there is a significant alteration in placement for Best Actress as Kristen Stewart’s shocking omission in Spencer from the SAG five drops her from 1st (where she’s been perched for months) to 4th. Rising to #1 is Globes victor Nicole Kidman for Being the Ricardos. This competition is beginning to resemble the unpredictable Actress lineup from 2020 and it should be fun to witness.

In Best Picture, I’m (perhaps stubbornly) sticking to the same ten. Yet there’s no doubt that Ricardos and House of Gucci could be on the rise and either or both could crack the lineup soon.

The only significant change is in Supporting Actor where I’m finally putting Jared Leto for Gucci in the mix. He’s in over Jamie Dornan (Belfast).

I’m also adding a new feature which shows how many eventual nominees from 2020 were correctly picked at this same juncture. I’ll keep that up until I make my final picks shortly before the February 8th announcement. This will be listed as 2020 Count. 

You can read all the movement below.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune (PR: 4) (E)

5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)

6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)

7. CODA (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Being the Ricardos (PR: 14) (+3)

12. House of Gucci (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Drive My Car (PR: 11) (-2)

14. The Lost Daughter (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Nightmare Alley (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Spider-Man: No Way Home

2020 Count: 7 of 8 eventual nominees

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2) (E)

3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (PR: 6) (E)

7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)

8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9) (-1)

2020 Count: 2 of 5 eventual nominees

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (E)

3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (-3)

5. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)

8. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10) (E)

2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)

2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

3. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)

4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 10) (E)

2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)

9. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Judi Dench, Belfast

2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

2. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (-2)

9. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (E)

10. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 8) (-2)

2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)

2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)

4. King Richard (PR: 4) (E)

5. Being the Ricardos (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Mass (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The French Dispatch (PR: 10) (+1)

10. A Hero (PR: 9) (-1)

2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)

3. CODA (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Drive My Car (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 7) (E)

8. Passing (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Last Duel (PR: 10) (E)

2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)

2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Luca (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Belle (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (E)

8. My Sunny Maad (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Vivo (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (-1)

2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Drive My Car (PR: 1) (E)

2. A Hero (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)

4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 7) (+1)

7. I’m Your Man (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Great Freedom (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Good Boss (PR: 10) (E)

2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Rescue (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Procession (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Summer of Soul (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Ascension (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Attica (PR: 6) (E)

7. The First Wave (PR: 7) (E)

8. President (PR: 8) (E)

9. Faya Dayi (PR: 9) (E)

10. Julia (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

In the Same Breath

2020 Count: 1 of 5 eventual nominees

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)

4. Belfast (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)

7. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Spencer (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (-2)

10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

No Time to Die

2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)

3. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)

4. House of Gucci (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Spencer (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Cyrano (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)

10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)

2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)

3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (E)

7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (-2)

8. King Richard (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The French Dispatch (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Nightmare Alley

2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)

4. Coming 2 America (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Cruella (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Suicide Squad (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-2)

8. West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cyrano (PR: 8) (-1)

10. No Time to Die (PR: 10) (E)

2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)

4. The French Dispatch (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Spencer (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Parallel Mothers (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)

8. King Richard (PR: 8) (E)

9. Encanto (PR: 9) (E)

10. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)

2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 8) (+2)

7. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Right Where I Belong” from Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road

2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. West Side Story (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Belfast (PR: 6) (E)

7. Spencer (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Cyrano (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cruella (PR: 10) (E)

2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)

3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Time to Die (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (+2)

7. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 7) (E)

8. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 9) (E)

10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)

2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Time to Die (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Free Guy (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Eternals (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Black Widow (PR: 10) (E)

2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees

And that equates to these movies hitting these numbers for their nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune

9 Nominations

Belfast, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story

5 Nominations

Don’t Look Up, King Richard

4 Nominations

House of Gucci, Licorice Pizza, Tick, Tick… Boom!, The Tragedy of Macbeth

3 Nominations

CODA, Flee, Spencer

2 Nominations

Being the Ricardos, Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die

1 Nomination

Ascension, Coming 2 America, Drive My Car, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Passing, Procession, Raya and the Last Dragon, The Rescue, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spider-Man: No Way Home, The Worst Person in the World

2021 SAG Awards Nominee Predictions

The 28th Annual Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards airs February 27th and the nominations will be unveiled this Wednesday (01/12). It’s often a more reliable precursor to the acting nominations for the Oscars. Therefore it’s time to make my picks on who and what will grab the nods later this week.

As a reminder, the big prize here is Best Ensemble and not Best Picture. That often favors films with a larger cast though a potent mix with four or more actors can make the cut. Similar to Golden Globe estimates and my forthcoming final Oscar picks, I’ll give you my five contenders along with a runner-up and second alternate with a bit of commentary.

Here we go!

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Predicted Nominees:

Belfast

CODA

Don’t Look Up

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Runner-Up: Licorice Pizza

Second Alternate: King Richard

Commentary – The three Best Picture frontrunners for the Academy (Belfast, Power, West Side) all seem like pretty safe bets here. If anything is vulnerable, it might be the quartet from Power considering it has a smaller troupe of performers. There’s also some chatter that West Side could be vulnerable because it sent out late screeners for voters, but I’ll give it the benefit of the doubt. For the other two spots, I’m favoring Don’t Look Up‘s large and sprawling cast should make it in. I’ll go with the CODA clan as well though I could easily see Licorice Pizza, King Richard or The Harder They Fall making the cut.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Predicted Nominees:

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Kristen Stewart, Spencer

Runner-Up: Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

Second Alternate: Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza

Commentary – The last four years has seen a 4/5 match with SAG and Oscar when it comes to leading ladies. My current Academy lineup is the same as here (though that’s certainly subject to change). Quite honestly, I tried to make room for Cruz but couldn’t land on who to take out. The most vulnerable could be Chastain, Gaga, or Kidman. I also wouldn’t completely discount Jennifer Hudson for Respect and would have her ranked above Rachel Zegler (West Side Story) for SAG.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in Leading Role

Predicted Nominees:

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Peter Dinklage, Cyrano

Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!

Will Smith, King Richard

Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up

Second Alternate: Nicolas Cage, Pig

Commentary – Just as I am with the Oscars – feeling confident about Cumberbatch, Garfield, Smith, and Washington. It’s that fifth slot that’s tricky. I’ll give Dinklage the ever so slight nod over Leo (who’s currently my fifth with the Academy). I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Cage sneak in.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Predicted Nominees:

Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

Rita Moreno, West Side Story

Runner-Up: Marlee Matlin, CODA

Second Alternate: Ann Dowd, Mass

Commentary – I’m banking on the Guild not passing up a chance to put the legendary Moreno in with her costar DeBose. Speaking of Passing, you’ll notice Ruth Negga (my fifth Oscar player at the moment) isn’t here but she could certainly surface.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Predicted Nominees:

Jamie Dornan, Belfast

Mike Faist, West Side Story

Ciaran Hinds, Belfast

Troy Kotsur, CODA

Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Runner-Up: Jared Leto, House of Gucci

Second Alternate: Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza

Commentary – Bit of a guessing game as Supporting Actor is a head scratcher for 2021 pics. Going with both Belfast boys and the love continuing for West Side Story with Faist. As for the winner, that could be between Kotsur and Smit-McPhee (I also wouldn’t discount his costar Jesse Plemons getting in). If Leto misses here (and with the Globes omission), his Oscar chances probably disappear.

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble

Predicted Nominees:

Black Widow

Dune

No Time to Die

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Spider-Man: No Way Home

Runner-Up: The Matrix Resurrections

Second Alternate: The Harder They Fall

This means I’m projecting 4 nominations apiece for Belfast, The Power of the Dog, and West Side Story. I’ll have a recap up Wednesday with my reaction and how well (or not) I did!

P.S. – Golden Globe reactions coming up this evening…