Tag: Piece by Piece

97th Academy Awards Predictions: November 17th Edition

My first Oscar predictions in two weeks and it’s about what narratives I’m buying and which ones I’m selling. For example, I’m currently not sold that Paramount’s September 5 is the contender that some other prognosticators think it is.

On the flip side, I am starting to buy that Conclave is on the rise. The Focus Features effort from Edward Berger is performing well at the box office for an adult skewering drama. I think it has to a shot to win the big prize and that’s why you’ll see it elevated in multiple categories.

While my BP and directorial and Best Actress lineups are unchanged as far as hopefuls, Daniel Craig (Queer) returns to my Actor quintet at the expense of Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice). In Supporting Actor, it is the same five but Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) is perched atop the list for the first time. In Supporting Actress, I’m banking on Isabella Rossellini potentially riding that Conclave goodwill and that leaves Ariana Grande (Wicked) on the outside looking in.

You can read all the movement below and the next update should arrive on Thanksgiving weekend!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Conclave (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)

7. A Real Pain (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Gladiator II (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Substance (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+1)

15. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 8) (+2)

7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Steve McQueen, Blitz

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)

7. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

9. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (E)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

John Magaro, September 5

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Substance (PR: 9) (+3)

7. September 5 (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Blitz (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Hit Man (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. Vermiglio (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kneecap (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Universal Language (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)

9. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Grand Tour (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Armand

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

2. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Spellbound (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Most Precious of Cargoes

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daughters (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sugarcane (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dahomey (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Union (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Separated (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Gaucho Gaucho

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maria (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Anora (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Blitz (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (E)

8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Substance (PR: 8) (E)

9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Substance (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+3)

4. A Different Man (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wicked (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Challengers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 8) (+1)

8. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Beyond” from Moana 2 (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Blitz (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 4) (E)

4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Twisters (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Civil War

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Twisters (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Better Man (PR: 6) (E)

7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Here

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

9 Nominations

The Brutalist, Conclave

6 Nominations

Wicked

5 Nominations

Anora, Blitz, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Sing Sing

3 Nominations

A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, Saturday Night, The Substance, Sugarcane, Twisters, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

97th Academy Awards Predictions: November 3rd Edition

My votes are in for my latest Oscar predictions at the 97th Academy Awards and I’ve elected to elevate Wicked into my BP top ten with Gladiator II sliding out. This is based on buzz for early screenings and I will readily admit that sometimes those viewings can elicit exaggerated reactions. We’ll see if Wicked sticks around in a way that Gladiator II didn’t (the two pics both open November 22nd).

In other movement, Edward Berger (Conclave) is back in my directorial quintet with RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) on the outside looking in. The five spot in Best Actor switches to Sebastian Stan playing a certain 45th POTUS with Daniel Craig (Queer) slipping. Ariana Grande’s witchy Wicked work enters the Supporting Actress derby with Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) falling to sixth place. In Supporting Actor, on the other hand, Conclave’s Stanley Tucci re-enters with Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) now out. You can peruse all the activity below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Anora (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

7. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Blitz (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

11. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-3)

12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (-1)

13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Substance (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Room Next Door

September 5

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (E)

8. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ridley Scott, Gladiator II

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)

4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)

5. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (E)

3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (-2)

10. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Saturday Night (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Blitz (PR: 6) (-1)

8. September 5 (PR: 4) (-4)

9. The Substance (PR: 9) (E)

10. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

His Three Daughters

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (+1)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Hit Man (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Gladiator II

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. Vermiglio (PR: 4) (E)

5. Universal Language (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Kneecap (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Grand Tour (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Armand (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (E)

4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5 (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)

9. Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Orion and the Dark

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Union (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Daughters (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Sugarcane (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dahomey (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anora (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Maria (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Maria (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (E)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (E)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Challengers (PR: 10 (E)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Gladiator II

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Substance (PR: 4) (+2)

3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (E)

7. Maria (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Challengers (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Blitz (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emila Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+4)

4. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 8) (+1)

8. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 6) (-2)

9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Beyond” from Moana 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)

5. Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (E)

10. Civil War (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Brutalist

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Twisters (PR: 4) (E)

5. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Better Man (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Wicked (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 9) (E)

10. Here (PR: 5) (-5)

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez

8 Nominations

Conclave

6 Nominations

Wicked

5 Nominations

Anora, Blitz, Gladiator II, Sing Sing

3 Nominations

A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

Maria, Nickel Boys, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Twisters

1 Nomination

The Apprentice, Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Deadpool & Wolverine, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, Nosferatu, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, The Substance, Union, Universal Language, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper

97th Academy Awards Predictions: October 20th Edition

It’s been two weeks since I’ve updated my predictions in the feature-length categories and developments have occurred. Steve McQueen’s Blitz opened the London Film Festival and its Oscar stock took a hit. While I still have it being nominated in five categories including Picture and Supporting Actress (Saoirse Ronan), it falls out of my high five in Director and Original Screenplay, among others.

Another significant screening was the industry’s first look at Gladiator II a month before it debuts. With the caveat that these previews are often hyperbolic, the 24 years in the making sequel’s fortunes improved. I now have it contending for seven statues including Best Picture. Its rise causes The Room Next Door to drop out of my 10 BP hopefuls. Denzel Washington also re-enters my Supporting Actor picks with Stanley Tucci (Conclave) now on the outside looking in.

In Director, Blitz‘s McQueen is out in favor of RaMell Ross of Nickel Boys. I’ve put Daniel Craig back in my Actor quintet at the expense of Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice (which opened to dismal box office).

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Blitz (PR: 2) (-5)

8. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)

10. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 14) (+3)

12. The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (-3)

13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (E)

14. September 5 (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Substance (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

5. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (-6)

9. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

10. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)

4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)

5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Toni Collette, Juror No. 2

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-2)

10. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. September 5 (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

10. His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Dídi

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Queer

A Complete Unknown

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Universal Language (PR: 4) (-2)

7. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Grand Tour (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Kneecap (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Armand (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cloud

Flow

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (E)

4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)

9. Orion and the Dark (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Wohirrim (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Will & Harper (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daughters (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Black Box Diaries (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Union (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Sugarcane (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Dahomey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Apocalypse in the Tropics

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+5)

3. Wicked (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Maria (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 3) (-3)

7. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+3)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Blitz (PR: 2) (-5)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Challengers (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

September 5

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 4) (+2)

3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Substance (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maria (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Blitz (PR: 9) (E)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Room Next Door

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+8)

2. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+3)

3. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)

4. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (-6)

8. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Folie à Deux” from Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Visusal Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Twisters (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Better Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

And that all works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez

7 Nominations

Gladiator II

6 Nominations

Anora, Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Blitz, Conclave

3 Nominations

Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, Wicked

2 Nominations

Maria, Nosferatu, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, September 5, The Substance, Twisters, Union, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

October 18-20 Box Office Predictions

Smile 2 looks to make horror fans happy this weekend while the Andrew Garfield and Florence Pugh romantic drama We Live in Time debuts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Smile 2 Box Office Prediction
We Live in Time Box Office Prediction

Likely building upon the goodwill from its predecessor two years ago, Smile 2 should outpace the $22 million that Smile opened wide with. My mid to high 20s estimate puts it easily out front.

Time is hitting just 1000 venues and I’m projecting mid single digits before it expands even wider on October 25th.

Terrifier 3 got off to a terrific start (more on that below). Projecting its sophomore fall is tricky. I would think the unrated horror threequel might be front loaded, but I’m not sure it drops over 60%. It’s actually theaters so it may only decline around 50% and that’s good for a horror flick of this nature. That should put it in third as I foresee The Wild Robot only easing in the mid 20s and staying in second. A similar meager decrease for Beetlejuice Beetlejuice should keep it in the top 5 in its seventh frame. Joker: Folie à Deux may manage fifth place though it should see another calamitous percentage fall. Yet I wouldn’t be surprised if Transformers One manages to rise the five spot.

Here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:

1. Smile 2

Predicted Gross: $27 million

2. The Wild Robot

Predicted Gross: $10.7 million

3. Terrifier 3

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

4. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

5. We Live in Time

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million

Box Office Results (October 11-13)

Please note that Joker: Folie à Deux is not listed in my top 5 for its third go-round due to a historically awful sophomore weekend plummet. We’ll get to that in a second, but let’s focus on the other big story for now. Terrifier 3 wowed prognosticators with $18.8 million, ahead of my $14.4 million call. With a reported budget of $5 million, the grisly Art the Clown Christmas bloodbath solidified its franchise bonafides. You can expect a fourth cut in the near future.

The Wild Robot held in second with $14 million and surpassed my $11.7 million prediction. In its three weeks in multiplexes, the DreamWorks Animation adventure has amassed $84 million as it flies to nine digit territory.

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice was third with $7.3 million (I said $6.7 million) for a six-week tally of $275 million as it looks to scare up $300M+ domestically.

Joker: Folie à Deux, after a disastrous enough premiere, was down an embarrassing 81% in fourth with $7 million. I was more generous in thinking it would only go down 75% with $9.5 million. The lambasted sequel has taken in $51 million in ten days and will struggle to reach $75 million stateside. As a reminder, its 2019 predecessor made $335 million in the U.S. and Canada and over one billion worldwide.

A slew of newcomers that didn’t star Art the Clown failed to fill seats. Lego themed Pharrell documentary Piece by Piece was fifth with $3.8 million compared to my $5.4 million projection.

Holdover Transformers One was sixth with $3.7 million for a muted $52 million in four weeks. I did not do an estimate for the animated Hasbro title.

Saturday Night, Jason Reitman’s recounting of the lead-up to SNL’s first episode in 1975, was seventh with a discouraging $3.4 million. I had it pegged in fourth with $7.8 million. SHAMELESS PLUG ALERT: check out the homepage on my blog to see my Top 50 SNL Cast Members of All Time posts. At press time, I’ve written entries for numbers 50-43 and they are being uploaded on a daily(ish) basis.

Manga sequel My Hero Academia: You’re Next was eighth with a meh $3 million, just over half of my $5.9 million prediction.

Finally, The Apprentice stumbled in 10th with $1.6 million (I went with $2.4 million). The story of Donald Trump rising to prominence in the 1980s did not attract curious onlookers.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

October 11-13 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (10/09): Based partly on its considerable 2500 screen count, I am upping my Terrifier 3 from $9.4 million to $14.4 million. That gives it the #1 slot.

A fascinating weekend lies ahead at the box office as a handful of newcomers try to break out, but they could all fall under $10 million. We have low-budget horror threequel Terrifier 3, behind the scenes showbiz dramedy Saturday Night (expanding in wide release), manga superhero entry My Hero Academia: You’re Next, the Pharrell Williams Lego themed doc Piece by Piece, and a Donald Trump biopic The Apprentice all vying for attention. You can peruse my prediction posts on them here:

Saturday Night Box Office Prediction
Terrifier 3 Box Office Prediction
My Hero Academia: You’re Next Box Office Prediction
Piece by Piece Box Office Prediction
The Apprentice Box Office Prediction

This sophomore frame of October is one in which Joker: Folie à Deux was widely expected to dominate the charts for a second time. That is very much in danger after its disastrous premiere (more on that below). The musical mashup of Joaquin Phoenix and Lady Gaga could experience a decline in 75% range considering its toxic word-of-mouth.

If so, that could mean a return to 1st position for The Wild Robot in its third outing. It may only dip in the high 30s or low 40s.

Terrifier 3 may have the best breakout potential among the newbies. I have it placing second just ahead of Joker. That’s a development that would’ve been unimaginable days ago.

I don’t foresee any of the fresh product reaching eight digits with Saturday Night in fourth and holdover Beetlejuice Beetlejuice rounding out the high five. The other three debuting flicks I have slotted 6-7 (Academia, Piece) and 9 (Apprentice) with Academia potentially having the chance for a little more than I’m projecting.

Here’s how I have it playing out with a top 8 this time around:

1. Terrifier 3

Predicted Gross: $14.4 million

2. The Wild Robot

Predicted Gross: $11.7 million

3. Joker: Folie à Deux

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

4. Saturday Night

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

6. My Hero Academia: You’re Next

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

7. Piece by Piece

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

8. Transformers One

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

9. The Apprentice

Predicted Gross: $2.4 million

Box Office Results (October 4-6)

Arriving 5 years to the day behind its billion plus grossing predecessor, Joker: Folie à Deux failed in spectacular fashion with critics and audiences. The sequel from Todd Phillips crashed with $37.6 million compared to my $54.3 million prediction. 2019’s original caught lightning in a bottle with a $96 million burst out of the gate (still the best October start in history) and 11 Oscar nominations. Deux could not measure up and that’s being kind considering it came in nearly $60 million lower. To add insult to injury, many reviews were brutal. Even worse, crowds gave it an awful D Cinemascore grade as they did not love this Joker.

The Wild Robot was second with $18.8 million, in line with my $19.8 million take. DreamWorks Animation’s potential frontrunner for Best Animated Feature has grossed $64 million in ten days as it eyes a potential return to #1 this weekend.

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice was third at $10.1 million, a bit under my $11.6 million estimate for a five-week haul of $265 million.

Transformers One held up decently in fourth with $5.3 million (I said $4.4 million). The $47 million three-week total is nothing to brag about.

Speak No Evil rounded out the top five with $2.7 million compared to my $3.2 million projection. In four weeks, it’s made $32 million.

Finally, Lionsgate had another turkey on their hands with Wonder prequel White Bird. It was seventh with $1.5 million. My guess? $1.5 million!

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

97th Academy Awards Predictions: October 6th Edition

At the 92nd Academy Awards that occurred in February 2020, Joker led the way with 11 nominations and 2 victories for Joaquin Phoenix in Actor and the Original Score. At the 97th ceremony, the story will be much different. Joker: Folie à Deux debuted yesterday. It currently has matching 32% ratings with critics and audiences and a D Cinemascore grade (the worst of 2024 and lower than Megalopolis).

A couple of months ago, Deux was seen as a repeat possibility in Best Picture and for Phoenix and costar Lady Gaga. Now I think it’s a legitimate question as to whether Joker gets any nominations at all. Even with the poor word-of-mouth and incoming subpar box office numbers, some tech races are still viable. However, I would not surprised if it totally blanks. That’s what I’m projecting at the moment.

We have a change in Best Picture with The Room Next Door back in over Saturday Night. There’s been a consistent 5 in Best Actor for weeks, but that’s interrupted with Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) sliding in with Daniel Craig (Queer) falling to sixth. In Supporting Actress, Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) rises over Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez).

Speaking of Pérez, there’s uncertainty whether it will contend for Original or Adapted Screenplay. I’ve had it in the former and it now moves to the latter.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Room Next Door (PR: 11) (+2)

10. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Saturday Night (PR: 8) (-3)

12. September 5 (PR: 14) (+2)

13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nosferatu

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7 (E)

8. Mohammad Rasolouf, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 9) (E)

10. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jason Reitman, Saturday Night

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)

8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness

Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)

4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)

5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

10. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Drew Starkey, Queer

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+1)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Blitz (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. September 5 (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-1)

9. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Dídi (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Emilia Pérez – moved to Adapted Screenplay

The Substance

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Queer (PR: 6) (-3)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Piano Lesson

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. Universal Language (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kneecap (PR: 8) (E)

9. Cloud (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Flow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dahomey

Caught by the Tides

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (E)

3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Flow (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5 (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Orion and the Dark (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Savages (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Black Box Diaries (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Daughters (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Sugarcane (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Union (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dahomey (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Separated

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Anora (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Blitz (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (E)

7. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-5)

8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (+1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+!)

7. Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)

10. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Gladiator II

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Substance (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+5)

4. Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (E)

7. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Challengers (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Blitz (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)

4. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 10) (+6)

5. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 8) (+2)

7. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 5) (-3)

9. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Folie à Deux” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maria (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

10. joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Nosferatu

Twisters

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Here (PR: 4) (E)

5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Twisters (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Better Man (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Wicked (PR: 7) (-3)

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

The Brutalist

10 Nominations

Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez

9 Nominations

Blitz

6 Nominations

Anora, Conclave, Sing Sing

3 Nominations

Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, A Real Pain

2 Nominations

The Apprentice, Nickel Boys, The Room Next Door, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Saturday Night, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Substance, Sugarcane, Universal Language, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Terrifier 3 Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (10/09): Based on its reported screen count of 2500 and rising buzz, I am upping my prediction from $9.4 million to $14.4 million. That gives it the #1 slot.

A handful of new releases are out in cinemas October 11th and there’s a possibility that micro-budgeted slasher Terrifier 3 tops them all. From writer/director Damien Leone, Art the Clown’s latest hardcore horror flick looks to build upon the success of its 2022 predecessor. David Howard Thornton, Lauren LaVera, Elliot Fullam, Samantha Scaffidi, Chris Jericho, Daniel Roebuck, Tom Savini, and Jason Patric are among the cast members.

Shot for a reported $2 million, it sports an 86% RT rating with 68 on Metacritic. 2016’s Terrifier was a DVD premiere that managed to gain a cult following. Six years later, the sequel became an unexpected hit in multiplexes. Made for just $250k, it took in nearly $11 million.

The third edition, with has seen overseas reports of walkouts due to its gruesomeness, could flirt with double digits out of the gate. I haven’t seen a theater count (and I’ll update this number based on that if warranted), but I’ve got achieving the best start of the newbies ahead of Saturday Night, My Hero Academia: You’re Next, Piece by Piece, and The Apprentice.

Terrifier 3 opening weekend prediction: $14.4 million

For my Saturday Night prediction, click here:

Saturday Night Box Office Prediction

For my My Hero Academia: You’re Next prediction, click here:

My Hero Academia: You’re Next Box Office Prediction

For my Piece by Piece prediction, click here:

Piece by Piece Box Office Prediction

For my The Apprentice prediction, click here:

The Apprentice Box Office Prediction

Piece by Piece Box Office Prediction

Focus Features hopes that audiences will be happy to attend Piece by Piece when it assembles in theaters October 11th. This is quite the interesting mashup of genres. From documentarian Morgan Neville, it is a biopic of music producer Pharrell Williams of the Neptunes told through Lego animation. Besides the central character, his musician friends Gwen Stefani, Kendrick Lamar, Timbaland, Justin Timberlake, Busta Rhymes, Jay-Z, Daft Punk, and Snoop Dogg lend their voices to the project.

After its premiere at Telluride, Piece generated mostly complimentary reaction. The RT score is 91% with Metacritic at 64. I’m not sure the reviews are strong enough that this will compete for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars.

With no significant buzz awards wise or elsewhere, I wonder who turns up for this. This isn’t really geared towards kids (and they could still be preoccupied with The Wild Robot). Adults aren’t likely clamoring for a Lego themed doc about the producer of “Hollaback Girl” and “Drop It Like It’s Hot”.

If this managed higher single digits for starters, Focus should consider it a victory. Slated for 1800 screens, I don’t think it gets there.

Piece by Piece opening weekend prediction: $5.4 million

For my Saturday Night prediction, click here:

Saturday Night Box Office Prediction

For my Terrifier 3 prediction, click here:

Terrifier 3 Box Office Prediction

For my My Hero Academia: You’re Next prediction, click here:

My Hero Academia: You’re Next Box Office Prediction

For my The Apprentice prediction, click here:

The Apprentice Box Office Prediction

97th Academy Awards Predictions: September 28th Edition

When I did my forecast for the 96th Academy Awards around the same late September time frame last year, it yielded nine of the ten eventual Best Picture nominees. The only miss was not having The Zone of Interest in the hopefuls and I had it ranked 11th in other possibilities. It is also worth noting that eventual winner Oppenheimer was ranked #1.

For Best Director, it was four of five with Christopher Nolan correctly atop my chart. Four of five was also the score for Best Actress and Actor and I had victors Emma Stone (Poor Things) and Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) in first. For the supporting races, both were 3 out of five. In Supporting Actress, Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) was listed in second while Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) was projected highest in Supporting Actor. In the Screenplay derbies, it was 3 of 5 in each with Adapted recipient American Fiction and Original top finisher Anatomy of a Fall both listed 4th of 5.

That history lesson illustrates that the script for the previous Oscars had largely been written several months before nominations were unveiled. Will the 97th ceremony follow a similar pattern?

It sure doesn’t seem like it. I maintain that there’s no clear frontrunner for BP while Oppenheimer was definitely in that position a year ago. Solid to fair cases could be made for Blitz, The Brutalist, Anora, Emilia Pérez, Sing Sing, or Dune: Part Two to take gold. There’s also no slam dunks thus far in the acting competitions whereas Downey Jr. was kind of a no-brainer at this juncture and Murphy, Stone, and Randolph were in the 1 or 2 positions in their races.

That makes it all the more intriguing as the 2024 season plays out. The big news this week was that TIFF People’s Choice Winner The Life of Chuck will not open until summer 2025. Therefore you’ll see it drop from contention everywhere I had it listed as a possibility below. Last week, I only had Chuck actually being nominated in Adapted Screenplay. It is replaced by Dune.

I considered elevating the unseen Blitz back to first position in BP, but am giving it to The Brutalist still by a hair. It was announced this week that the latter will release on December 20th via A24. There is one change in BP as I’m putting in Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain for its initial top 10 appearance at the expense of The Room Next Door.

This week I’m also shutting the door on Tilda Swinton in Best Actress for The Room Next Door with Nightbitch‘s Amy Adams returning to the quintet. I went back and forth about whether to include Adams or Babygirl‘s Nicole Kidman.

You can all view all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (E)

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)

10. A Real Pain (PR: 15) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Room Next Door (PR: 10) (-1)

12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 14) (+2)

13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (-1)

14. September 5 (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Life of Chuck

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (E)

7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)

9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)

9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Paul Mescal, Gladiator II

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)

5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)

10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

9. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck

Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+3)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (E)

5. Blitz (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (E)

8. Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+1)

9. September 5 (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Substance (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Queer (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Hit Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Life of Chuck

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Vermiglio (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Universal Language (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kneecap (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Caught by the Tides (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

All We Imagine as Light

Pedro Páramo

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Orion and the Dark (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Savages (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daughters (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Black Box Diaries (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Union (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Separated (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

Skywalkers: A Love Story

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. Maria (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Anora (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Conclave

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Blitz (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Wicked (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Maria (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (E)

8. Conclave (PR: 8) (E)

9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Nickel Boys

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Substance (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maria (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

The Room Next Door

The Life of Chuck

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+2)

5. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (E)

8. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless

“We’re Back” from Moana 2

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Brutalist (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Civil War

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Blitz (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Twisters (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

9. Better Man (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (-1)

And that adds up to these numbers generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

Blitz

9 Nominations

The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez

6 Nominations

Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Anora, Conclave, Gladiator II

4 Nominations

Nosferatu

3 Nominations

A Real Pain, Saturday Night

2 Nominations

Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nickel Boys, Wicked, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Dahomey, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

97th Academy Awards Predictions: September 21st Edition

The Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festivals have all concluded and the Oscar landscape is looking a bit clearer for the 97th edition of the ceremony. Per usual with the festivals, there are films that rise and those that fall. No film rose more than Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist from Venice, but Toronto gave us a shocker in the form of Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck. The sci-fi flick based on a Stephen King novella took People’s Choice at the Canadian event. 15 of the last 16 victors of that prize have received a Best Picture nomination including the past 12 in a row. We still don’t know which distributor will buy Chuck and it’s not confirmed to be out this year. For that matter, we also don’t know for a fact that A24’s The Brutalist will make the ’24 calendar. For now I’m assuming both will. That means I’m elevating Chuck from unranked to #11 in my BP possibilities on the outside just looking in.

There was a significant announcement that Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore will be both be campaigned in lead actress for The Room Next Door. That means Swinton enters my quintet in that category with Amy Adams (Nightbitch) dropping. With Swinton leaving supporting, Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) resurfaces there. It has also been confirmed that Saoirse Ronan will vie for Actress with The Outrun and Supporting Actress in Blitz. I continue to list her a double nominee.

We have a change in Supporting Actor as I’m putting Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) in with Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) falling out of the projected five.

For the last few months, I’ve included 25 BP contenders and 15 for Director, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions. As I typically do around this time of year, I will condense this to 15 BPs and 10 in the others. Got all that? Good!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Room Next Door (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

12. A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)

13. September 5 (PR: 16) (+3)

14. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-2)

15. A Real Pain (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Gladiator II

Queer

Nosferatu

The Apprentice

All We Imagine as Light

Joker: Folie à Deux

The Piano Lesson

Wicked

Juror No. 2

His Three Daughters

A Different Man

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 9) (+2)

8. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: 11) (+1)

Dropped Out:

Jason Reitman, Saturday Night

James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

Ridley Scott, Gladiator II

Luca Guadagnino, Queer

Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door

Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl

Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters

June Squibb, Thelma

Zendaya, Challengers

Florence Pugh, We Live in Time

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night

Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness

Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys

John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door – moved to lead actress

Lesley Manville, Queer

Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown

Toni Collette, Juror No. 2

Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Drew Starkey, Queer

Harris Dickinson, Blitz

Mark Eidelstein, Anora

Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson

John Lithgow, Conclave

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (+1)

5. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Hard Truths (PR: 10) (+1)

10. September 5 (PR: 13) (+3)

Dropped Out:

His Three Daughters

Dídi

Kinds of Kindness

A Different Man

Juror No. 2

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)

7. Queer (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

I’m Still Here

Gladiator II

Nightbitch

Inside Out 2

Nosferatu

The Wild Robot

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Universal Language (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)

8. Caught by the Tides (PR: 8) (E)

9. Pedro Páramo (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Kneecap (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Simon of the Mountain

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)

5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Savages (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Orion and the Dark (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Daughters (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (E)

5. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Union (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Conclave (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Anora (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Room Next Door

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Wicked (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Saturday Night (PR: 10 (E)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anora (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+3)

4. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Conclave (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maria (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Substance (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Gladiator II

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Queer

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

4. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight

“Why Am I Here” from Shirley

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Maria (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicked (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Brutalist (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

A Complete Unknown

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Twisters (PR: 4) (E)

5. Here (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicked (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Better Man (PR: 9) (-1)

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

10 Nominations

The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two

9 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

8 Nominations

Blitz

6 Nominations

Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Anora, Gladiator II

4 Nominations

Conclave, Nosferatu

3 Nominations

Maria, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night

2 Nominations

Joker: Folie à Deux, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

1 Nomination

All We Imagine as Light, The Apprentice, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Life of Chuck, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Substance, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked, Will & Harper