The Beekeeper Box Office Prediction

Amazon MGM is hoping for solid buzz when The Beekeeper debuts on January 12th. It comes from Fury and Suicide Squad maker David Ayer with Jason Statham headlining the revenge tale. Costars include Emmy Raver-Lampman, Josh Hutcherson, Bobby Naderi, Minnie Driver, Phylicia Rashad, and Jeremy Irons.

It may sound like a kiddie animated flick, but the action thriller hopes to get genre fans out over the long MLK frame. With its attention grabbing name, one comp could be Gerard Butler’s Plane from last year. That plainly titled pic made nearly $12 million over the Friday to Monday portion of MLK. Another comp (as far as generic action exercises go) is 2017’s Sleepless with Jamie Foxx. It came in with just under $10 million for the four-day.

I’ll say The Beekeeper makes off with a number barely over $10 million in line with the aforementioned features.

The Beekeeper opening weekend prediction: $10.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Mean Girls prediction, click here:

For my The Book of Clarence prediction, click here:

Creed III Review

Michael B. Jordan and screenwriters Keenan Coogler and Zach Baylin are tasked with mounting a Rocky without Rocky in Creed III. We could feel a slight tectonic shift in the franchise when Donnie (Jordan) had more story on his plate than Sylvester Stallone in part II. This completes the movement and it’s a mostly competent entry that tops its predecessor while certainly not matching the 2015 original. It also proves Jordan, directing for the first time, is capable of admirable stylistic flourishes.

There’s some symmetry in how Creed III starts compared to Rocky III forty years before it. Adonis, like his former trainer, is living large and content. Unlike Mr. Balboa in his third go-round, Creed is retired and a happy hubby to music producer wife Bianca (Tessa Thompson) and girl dad to Amara (Mila Davis-Kent). We’re left to assume Rocky is also good to go and reunited with his son in Canada.

A prologue from 2002 informs us of Donnie’s childhood friend Damian Anderson. A Golden Gloves phenom with a bright ring future, the ropes close after a run-in the law. 20 years later, he’s out of prison with Jonathan Majors as the grown-up “Diamond Dame”. Reconnecting with Donnie, the true history of their friendship and fallout is shared slowly. We know it will culminate in a squared circle face-off.

Where Creed III shines is the casting of Majors and the continued potent work from Jordan. If Creed II‘s foe (Ivan Drago’s son from Rocky IV) felt gimmicky (and it basically did), the screenplay assists Dame’s character in having more dimension. It’s the intense performance from Majors that sells it. As an aside, Florian Munteanu pops up rather unnecessarily as Viktor Drago once again.

Some of the family drama involving Phylicia Rashad as Donnie’s beloved adoptive mom and her healthy problems and Bianca’s melodic issues are filler. The pace is a little off as it takes about 40 minutes to get warmed up and then feels rushed when we hit the third act.

In that last act, thankfully, Jordan’s skills behind the camera come into focus. The final bout looks and sounds different than what we’ve paid for in the eight previous pics when Rocky, Creed, and his dad (and Uncle Paulie and that robot) were sparring. The hype for Donnie and Dame pays off and that’s where the admission feels earned. So while this eighth round isn’t always smooth, it’s less rocky than some others in the series.

*** (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: Creed III

Creed III enters the theatrical ring on March 3rd and some early reviews indicate it’s an improvement over its predecessor. Michael B. Jordan, returning in the title role, makes his directorial debut in the threequel that costars Tessa Thompson, Jonathan Majors, Wood Harris, Florian Munteanu, and Phylicia Rashad. One notable name not seen is Sylvester Stallone as the ninth feature in this cinematic universe is the first not to include Rocky.

In 1976, Rocky landed 10 Oscar nominations and won 3 including Picture and Director. In 1982, Rocky III nabbed an Original Song nod with “Eye of the Tiger” by Survivor. When Jordan’s character entered the mix in 2015, Stallone’s seventh appearance as Mr. Balboa was up for Supporting Actor (where he surprisingly lost to Mark Rylance from Bridge of Spies). Creed II (2018) received no nominations.

II also has a lower Rotten Tomatoes rating than part III. While the original Creed had 95%, the sequel was 83%. Based on nearly 60 reviews thus far, III is at 89%. Yet unlike the third franchise entry for Rocky, this doesn’t have an inspiring theme song about the optical determination of large striped cats. In other words, I’m not really sure where Creed III would enter the awards conversation despite the solid reactions. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Creed III Box Office Prediction

Creed III looks to clobber Scott Lang (aka Ant-Man) and all other competitors when it debuts March 3rd. The sporty sequel finds star Michael B. Jordan handling directorial duties in his behind the camera debut. This is the first feature in the Rocky Cinematic Universe with no involvement from Sylvester Stallone. Jonathan Majors, currently playing the antagonist in Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, is Creed’s former childhood friend and latest opponent. Tessa Thompson, Wood Harris, Florian Munteanu, and Phylicia Rashad return to the franchise.

In 2015, Creed was a critical and commercial hit from Ryan Coogler. Over the Thanksgiving holiday, it took in just over $30 million from Friday to Sunday and nearly $43 million over the five-day start. The eventual domestic haul was $109 million. Three Turkey Days later came Creed II with Steven Caple Jr. directing and audiences were hungry for more. It topped its predecessor with $35 million for the three-day and $55 million when including Wednesday and Thursday.

Early word-of-mouth is sturdy for the third edition. Like parts I and II, this was originally slated for Thanksgiving last year before United Artists made a shift. Creed III could manage to score the highest three-day launch of the bunch and approach $40 million out of the gate. I will put it just under that for a three-day best franchise opening.

Creed III opening weekend prediction: $39.2 million

For my Operation Fortune: Rose de Guerre prediction, click here:

For my Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village prediction, click here:

Oscar Watch: Soul

Disney/Pixar’s second 2020 release Soul has long been seen as their most viable Oscar contender over this spring’s Onward. Today’s buzz after it held the first screening at the London Film Festival confirms that. The jazz infused tale from Pete Docter and Kemp Powers is being called two familiar adjectives in the studio’s lexicon – heartfelt and crowd pleasing. Soul, after experiencing delays due to the COVID pandemic, is slated for a Disney+ debut on Christmas Day.

Featuring the voices of Jamie Foxx, Tina Fey, Questlove, Phylicia Rashad, Daveed Diggs, and Angela Bassett, several reviews are already claiming it’s in the upper echelon of Pixar pics. Docter is no stranger to Academy love. All three of his directorial efforts – Monsters Inc., Up, Inside Out – were nominated for Best Animated Feature. The latter two emerged victorious and Up is one of three animated flicks to achieve a Best Picture nomination.

The question is not whether Soul will make the final cut in Animated Feature. It absolutely will and it’s absolutely the strong front runner to win. A better debate is whether this is the fourth animated effort to contend for the big prize. I don’t believe that’s automatic. Inside Out also garnered sterling critical reaction in 2015 and fell short of that achievement. However, Soul has solidified its position as a legit hopeful.

Additionally, expect Best Sound and the Original Score by Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross to be in the mix. Bottom line: Soul helped it cause to play beyond Animated Feature. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Creed II Movie Review

When a little underdog of a movie named Rocky came out 42 years ago, a litany of Roman numeral titled sequels wasn’t foreseeable. Fantastic box office returns and a surprising Best Picture Oscar win changed that dynamic. 1979’s Rocky II was eagerly awaited and served as nothing much more than a retread of its predecessor. It was a dull copy at that where the main difference was its hero Rocky Balboa (Sylvester Stallone) besting rival Apollo Creed (Carl Weathers).

Creed came out in 2015 and it had underdog status itself. The concept of shifting the focus to Apollo’s illegitimate son Adonis (Michael B. Jordan) and his prowess in the ring seemed a little lame upon its announcement. However, like Rocky, the picture exceeded expectations with energetic direction from Ryan Coogler, fine work from Jordan, and an emotional storyline with Rocky’s cancer diagnosis. Stallone was even nominated again for an Academy Award.

Financial success has brought those Greek digits back. Creed II has a deeper well to drain from as far as plot compared to Rocky II because of the further follow-ups. Coogler isn’t behind the camera anymore as he took on the phenomenon that was Black Panther. Steven Caple Jr. takes over the reins while Stallone shares script credit (something he didn’t do three years ago).

1985’s Rocky IV is the entry that the second Creed taps for material. As you’ll recall, this was the saga where Balboa fought fierce Russian competitor Ivan Drago (Dolph Lundgren) while seemingly punching out Communism too. Part four was cheesy, very much of its time, and highly enjoyable. It’s also the one where Drago delivered a fatal blow to Apollo after the energetic “Living in America” performance of James Brown.

Adonis gets an opportunity to avenge his father here. Drago’s son Viktor (Florian Munteanu) is an up-and-comer with his sights on the now heavyweight champion. His pops Ivan sees it as revenge after mother Russia shunned him following his loss to Balboa. The daddy issues don’t end there. Creed is now engaged to singer Bianca (Tessa Thompson) and she’s expecting. Rocky is estranged from his son as Adonis often fills that void.

The Italian Stallion isn’t thrilled with the prospect of Creed/Drago II, considering Apollo died in his arms. And we know that training montages will keep the drama unfolding. We don’t have a Xerox like situation with this sequel. It does follow the path of #4 in numerous ways, including a Soviet set main event.

Ivan Drago was a man of few words in ‘85 and he still is. His back story of abandonment from his wife (Brigitte Nielsen, who cameos) and countrymen has the potential to be compelling, but it’s given the short shrift. Jordan is still excellent in the title role, as is his chemistry with Thompson. Stallone’s character arch here is considerably less captivating than the last time around. This franchise is shifting away from him to Adonis and you feel it.

Like Creed, the ring action is more realistic than anything in the Rocky tales, where punches landed with a percentage of around 110%. Caple Jr. does decent work filming them, though not to the level of what Coogler accomplished.

Creed II is a superior direct sequel than Rocky II. The common thread is that neither are particularly memorable or necessary. To add to the clichés that permeate this series (sometimes in supreme guilty pleasure ways), it’s not a knockout. If you’re a true fan, though, it certainly won’t break you.

**1/2 (out of four)

Oscar Watch: Creed II

Three years ago, the biggest surprise of Oscar night was Sylvester Stallone losing Best Supporting Actor to Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies. The legendary performer was nominated for his seventh portrayal of Rocky Balboa in Creed, nearly 40 years after Rocky won Best Picture.

Creed was an unexpected critical and box office smash with a knockout score of 95% on Rotten Tomatoes. However, Oscar attention was reserved for Stallone only. Creed II opens on Wednesday and reviews are out. The tale of the tape indicates a mostly satisfying if predictable experience that serves as a follow-up to Rocky IV. The Tomato meter currently sits at 72%.

While its predecessor was heralded for Stallone’s work, early critical reaction here is more focused on Michael B. Jordan’s return in the title role. Yet any awards attention he receives will be for his supporting role in Black Panther, I suspect.

Bottom line: Creed II may please fans of the franchise. Like the Rocky sequels, don’t expect awards voters to punch ballots for it. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Creed II Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (11/20): On the eve of its premiere, I have increased my prediction for Creed II

When Creed debuted three Thanksgiving weekends ago, it did so in the manner of the character who began the franchise nearly four decades prior… as an underdog. The Rocky spinoff managed to majorly defy expectations with rave reviews and even Oscar chatter for costar Sylvester Stallone in Supporting Actor. That wave of buzz resulted in a $29 million Friday to Sunday start and $42 million total for the five-day holiday weekend. The eventual gross was $109 million.

Like Rocky before it, now come the sequels with Roman numerals as Creed II premieres next week. Michael B. Jordan is back along with Stallone, Tessa Thompson, Phylicia Rashad, and Milo Ventimiglia (reprising his role as Balboa’s son from 2006’s Rocky Balboa). And that’s not the only blast from the past as Adonis Creed is fighting the son of Ivan Drago from 1985’s Rocky IV. That means Dolph Lundgren returns with a reported appearance from Brigitte Nielsen as well. Florian Munteanu is Drago’s spawn and other new cast members include Wood Harris and Russell Hornsby. Steven Caple, Jr. takes over directorial duties from Ryan Coogler, who moved onto a little something called Black Panther earlier this year (he does executive produce).

So how will the second round measure up? Jordan has certainly increased his visibility even more with his acclaimed villainous role in the aforementioned Panther. And part 4 of the Rocky series that this harkens back to is perhaps the most well-known sequel of the bunch.

That leads me to think II will open on an even keel with its predecessor. Yet I’m not seeing a compelling reason for it premiering much bigger. This might seem like a dull prediction, but I truly think the box office decision will match what came before.

Creed II opening weekend prediction: $31.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $45.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Ralph Breaks the Internet prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/13/ralph-breaks-the-internet-box-office-prediction/

For my Robin Hood prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/14/robin-hood-box-office-prediction/

For my Green Book prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/17/green-book-box-office-prediction/

Creed Movie Review

I will sheepishly admit that when I first heard about the concept of Creed, there may have been some eye rolling involved. Rocky Balboa training the son of his one time foe and eventual friend Apollo Creed? It seemed like a desperate attempt to revitalize a franchise that I didn’t believe needed it. 2006’s Rocky Balboa had some nice moments, but itself seemed an often unnecessary entry for Sylvester Stallone to bring the Italian Stallion back to the screen. Sixteen years prior, Rocky V was and is correctly regarded as an embarrassment. Five years prior and 30 years ago is the last time we saw Apollo, lying on the mat after taking a fatal blow from Russian fighter Ivan Drago.

In Creed, we learn the late Apollo has a son from the result of an affair. Adonis “Donnie” Johnson (Michael B. Jordan) is a product of the juvenile detention system in L.A. who can’t seem to stop fighting other kids. He soon learns his lineage from Creed’s widow (Phylicia Rashad) and it affords him a comfortable life growing up. Donnie can’t stay away from the ring, however. This means meaningless bouts in Tijuana in a low key resume that may be due to the fact that he won’t make public that he’s the offspring of a boxing legend.

Donnie wants something more and it leads him to Philadelphia, in hopes of being trained by Stallone’s iconic Balboa. Just as in the 2006 predecessor, Rocky now leads a quiet life running his restaurant and spending much time in the cemetery carrying on conversations with his beloved late wife Adrian and now Uncle Paulie as well. He’s hesitant to train Donnie but his loyalty to Apollo takes precedence. Circumstances lead to a shot at the title, just like with young Rock nearly 40 years ago. And it forges a friendship between the pair that takes many dramatic turns and is truly quite touching.

The Philly pilgrimage gives Donnie a love interest with his neighbor Bianca (Tessa Thompson), a singer who is gradually losing her hearing. Their well-written romance includes a moment where Donnie asks her what she’ll do when she’s no longer able to do what she loves. Bianca responds that she has to keep going until she can’t anymore. Of course, that metaphor applies to Donnie. And Rocky. And even Donnie’s opponent “Pretty” Ricky Conlan (Tony Bellew), an English brawler whose championship is about to surrendered to an upcoming prison sentence.

This brings us to Ryan Coogler, the writer (along with Aaron Covington) and director of Creed. Mr. Coogler gained acclaim for his debut pic Fruitvale Station which served as a breakout role for Jordan. Stallone has smartly handed over screenplay and directorial duties to this up and comer. Coogler imbues this series with a grittiness and emotional resonance that hasn’t been seen since the Oscar winning original. It allows Stallone to focus on his performance, which is quite something to behold. He permits us to see Rocky as in many ways a broken man who is given one last chance to do something he loves (just not in the ring). Jordan is very impressive as well and the whole idea of this concept being a gimmick is forgotten quickly. Much of this is due to the complexities and nuance that Jordan brings to the proceedings.

The boxing scenes are also extremely well constructed and easily the most realistic we’ve seen in the franchise. That may not be saying much, truth be told. When Balboa fought Donnie’s father’s executioner in Russia, the punch thrown to landed percentage was about 110%. Creed at least makes noble attempts to make the sport kind of look like it does.

Coogler has made a legitimate accomplishment here, managing to present a poignant partnership between Donnie and his legendary teacher. Many of us fondly recall Rocky running up those steps in the City of Brotherly Love. There’s a variation of that here and its metaphorical meaning may well bring tears to your eyes. Who would have thought we’d see that level of depth in this franchise? Kudos to Stallone for allowing a young and gifted filmmaker to enter the ring here and kudos to Coogler for giving Stallone this opportunity to take his most famous role in unforeseen and enriching directions.

***1/2 (out of four)