Tag: PGA

Parasite Invades SAG

The Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards remained on script for about 99% of its running time last night. And then it went ahead and made this year’s Best Picture race at the Oscars all the more interesting.

Before we get to that, I went four for four in my acting category predictions and did so by sticking with the front runners. Those would be Joaquin Phoenix in Joker and Renee Zellweger in Judy in the leads and Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Laura Dern for Marriage Story with supporting. Let’s be clear: 2019 appears to be a year where there’s strong favorites in all four races. Anyone other than this quartet winning on Oscar night at this point would constitute an upset.

When it comes to the biggest race of all, it’s still open. One could argue that 1917 is a soft front runner after winning Best Picture at the Producers Guild of America (where 13 of 19 recipients this century took the Oscar) and Best Drama at the Golden Globes. The Sam Mendes World War I epic wasn’t nominated for SAG. And therefore the narrative going into yesterday evening is that the winner here could serve as the most viable Academy alternative.

I projected that movie would be Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Yet the SAG branch went with Bong Joon-Ho’s Parasite. Perhaps I should have suspected this when its cast (presenting clips) received raucous applause that eclipsed all others. However, I chose not to predict its win, in part, due to no actors getting individual nods for their work. The Parasite victory here is major as its the first foreign language feature to be named in this category. It certainly sets up an argument that the Best Picture derby at the Oscars has really come down to three: 1917, Hollywood, and Parasite.

So what’s next? The Directors Guild of America (DGA) announces their winner this Sunday. That feels important because 16 out of the past 19 directing winners there have taken the gold statue. It’s probably Joon-Ho vs. Mendes and the honoree could then see their film vault to the front of the Picture pack.

Bottom line: SAG solidified the four actors vying for their statues while further complicating the Picture derby.

The Producers Go To 1917

Last night, the Producers Guild of America bestowed their honoree for best of the year and it’s a significant harbinger of what could lie ahead at the Oscars. In the 21st century, 13 of the 19 PGA winners ended up winning Best Picture from the Academy. In fact, 2018’s “surprise” PGA recipient Green Book took the prize at the big show as well.

It was the Sam Mendes World War I epic 1917 that emerged victorious. That’s another major precursor pickup after the Golden Globes named it Best Drama a couple weeks back. 1917 earned the award over nine other nominees that includes the eight pictures it’s nominated with from the Academy and Knives Out.

Let’s be clear – a solid argument can now be made that 1917 is the front runner to win the Oscar. If the Directors Guild of America names Mendes as their choice next weekend, that will serve as another huge precursor. Yet the 1917 love won’t extend to tonight’s Screen Actors Guild Awards (my predictions for that event will be on the blog later this morning). 1917 is not nominated for Best Ensemble from SAG. If The Irishman or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood or Parasite win Ensemble, the narrative may turn to that picture as its strongest competitor.

Still, one week after 1917 rode its awards buzz to impressive box office earnings, it’s established itself as perhaps the film to beat.

The Producers Take Their Stab

In a day that saw numerous Oscar precursors unveil their nominees (get ready for DGA and BAFTA posts later this evening), the Producers Guild of America named their ten nominated pictures of 2019. The winner will be named January 18.

Before we get to the analysis, let’s take a gander at the nominees:

1917

Ford v Ferrari

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

Knives Out

Little Women

Marriage Story

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Parasite

In short, there are no true surprises here. What does this mean for these film’s chances at a Best Picture nod? It means a lot based on odds. Over the past five years, there’s never been less than seven PGA pics that didn’t score a Best Picture nomination from the Academy. There’s an asterisk in 2017 when 11 movies got PGA attention.

This means you can count on 70% of the movies above to hear their names called on Monday. And I’ll give you those seven right now: 1917, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite. I suspect there will be at least eight or nine for 2019.

In my latest round of Oscar estimates Monday (before final predictions this weekend), I also have Ford v Ferrari and Little Women landing spots. It’s worth noting that the PGA nod for Women might have been needed as it has missed some key earlier precursors. As for Knives Out, it’s certainly got a shot but I’m a bit skeptical it makes the final cut (pun intended).

The PGA picks in 2016 and 2018 encapsulated all of the eventual Oscar nominees. For 2014, 2015, and 2017, here is the full list of Best Picture nominees from the Academy that weren’t named by PGA: Selma, Room, Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread. In other words… small list. So it could be said that today is bad news from an oddsmakers perspective for the following hopefuls: Bombshell, The Farewell, Pain and Glory, Rocketman, The Two Popes, and Uncut Gems.

Three out of the previous five PGA winners went on to win Best Picture, including 2017’s The Shape of Water and last year’s Green Book. That victor will not be announced for 11 days, but the PGA has granted us plenty to speculate about in the meantime.

The PGA Goes Green

The eyes of Oscar prognosticators were on the Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards and for good reason. In this decade, the Best Picture Award has matched the Academy’s 6 out of 8 times (there’s a little fudging here because in 2013 there was a tie between Oscar recipient 12 Years a Slave and Gravity). The non matches occurred in 2015 when the PGA selected The Big Short over Spotlight and the following year with La La Land winning and not Moonlight.

Two scenarios could have changed the Oscar landscape in a significant way. A victory for Roma (coming off its Critics Choice honor) could have solidified standing as a front-runner. If A Star Is Born took the top prize, it would have marked a much-needed win after some high-profile precursor snubs.

Neither scenario happened as Peter Farrelly’s Green Book was named. This is a surprise and it opens up an already uncertain race for Best Picture at the big dance. It certainly lessens Green Book winning the Oscar being seen as an upset. It’s a real contender along with Roma and Star.

Tonight’s ceremony also gave yet another animation award for Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse. Coupled with its Globes and Critics wins, it now appears Spidey is the Academy favorite over Incredibles 2.

Bottom line: the PGA made the Oscars a bit murkier. We got ourselves a race.

The PGA Boosts Rhapsody

The Producers Guild of America (PGA) announced their nominees today for their 10 Best Pictures of 2018 and you better believe it comes with Oscar implications. The PGA Awards are correctly looked at as a major harbinger for the films likely to make the final cut of the Academy. Let’s look at the past five years. In 2013, eight of the nominated PGA pics got Oscar nominations. In 2014, 2015, and 2017 – it was seven. In 2016, that was number was nine. The math is a little tricky considering there’s always 10 PGA nominees and it fluctuates with the Academy (usually with eight or nine being the magic number).

As you can see, it’s very safe to assume seven out of the ten PGA picks will get Oscar love. And here are those ten nominees:

BlacKkKlansman

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

Crazy Rich Asians

The Favourite

Green Book

A Quiet Place

Roma

A Star Is Born

Vice

Right off the bat, we have six flicks that appear to be sure things for the Academy. They are BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, The Favourite, Green Book, Roma, and A Star Is Born. I would make the case that, at this point, Vice is the 7th. It got the most nods from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association for the Golden Globes and its inclusion here is important.

So there’s your seven. Yet the PGA announcements today cause me to consider the 8th. That’s Bohemian Rhapsody. In my weekly Oscar prediction posts, I haven’t included it in my projected Academy movies for Best Picture. I suspect that will change next Thursday. It managed a nod at the Globes for Best Drama. Despite mixed reviews, it’s a box office sensation and audiences dig it. I think it’s in and look for that change to be reflected next week.

Now to the omissions. The PGA selections left out If Beale Street Could Talk and First Man. Those are the two pictures that, as of yesterday, I still had being nominated by the Academy. I still feel Beale‘s road to Best Picture inclusion is fairly solid, though it’s far from a guarantee. I had it listed at #7 yesterday. Expect that to change.

As for First Man, I think it’s time for me to admit that it won’t land recognition from Oscar voters. It has simply failed to gain any significant precursor traction and that trend seems bound to continue. Other pictures could have received a boost from the PGA today and failed. They include Can You Ever Forgive Me?, First Reformed, and Eighth Grade. Also the nods today provide further evidence that Mary Poppins Returns could be in trouble. I took it out of my expected nominees two weeks ago and I don’t see that changing.

So what will be the PGA picks that don’t get Oscar nods? My guess would be Crazy Rich Asians and A Quiet Place, though it could happen. In short, we have more evidence today as to what the Academy will pick. And it’s a good day for Freddie Mercury and company.