Oscar Predictions: How to Train Your Dragon

All three How to Train Your Dragon features from DreamWorks Animation have received Best Animated Feature nominations and all lost to Disney. In 2010, the original fell short to Toy Story 3. Four years later, the sequel couldn’t overcome Big Hero 6. 2019’s The Hidden World didn’t get more votes than Woody and Buzz once again with Toy Story 4.

This Friday, Dean DeBlois (who directed the Dragon trilogy) returns behind the camera with the live-action rendering of part 1 with a sequel already in the works. Cast members include Mason Thames, Nico Parker, Nick Frost, Julian Dennison, Gabriel Howell, Bronwyn James, Harry Trevaldwyn, Ruth Codd, Peter Serafinowicz, Murray McArthur, and Gerard Butler.

The fantasy adventure looks to slay the box office this weekend. Could it keep the streak going of Oscar nods for the series? Reviews are mostly solid with 83% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 67 Metacritic. It is worthy of note that both numbers are lower than the three pictures preceding it. That said, Costume Design and Sound are long shot possibilities. Where DreamWorks could mount a legit campaign is in Visual Effects, but expect plenty of competition for those five spots. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

How to Train Your Dragon Box Office Prediction

DreamWorks is looking for their live-action remake of How to Train Your Dragon to breath some fire (sorry) into the box office when it opens June 13th. Updating their 2010 animated hit that spawned two sequels, Dean DeBlois (maker of the drawn Dragon trilogy) directs. The cast includes Mason Thames, Nico Parker, Gerard Butler, Nick Frost, Gabriel Howell, Julian Dennison, Bronwyn James, Harry Trevaldwyn, Ruth Codd, Peter Serafinowicz, and Murray McArthur.

This is a subgenre that has served Disney well in recent years and this summer with Lilo & Stitch (DeBlois made the 2002 original). DreamWorks should follow suit and this appears poised to achieve the best franchise opening thus far with room to spare. The original 15 years ago started with $43 million. 2014’s sequel improved upon that with $49 million while 2019’s How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World earned $55 million. While each premiere improved upon its predecessor, the first Dragon has the best overall domestic take ($217 million) followed by #2 ($177 million) and #3 ($160 million).

Some estimates have this approaching nine figures, but I’ll hedge my bets and go with mid to high eighties.

How to Train Your Dragon opening weekend prediction: $84.3 million

For my Materialists prediction, click here: