Hey all! Back at it again with my weekly Thursday Oscar predictions in the eight major categories for your perusal. Over the last seven days, a couple of developments have occurred. Both Rules Don’t Apply and Miss Sloane screened for critics at the AFI Film Festival. Both were looked at as potential awards contenders, yet their prospects both diminished upon their unveiling. The two films are both hovering around mid-60s on Rotten Tomatoes and the likelihood of either competing for the big prize is remote. That does not, however, hold true for their leading performances. Both Warren Beatty in Rules and Jessica Chastain in Sloane are slotted in the #6 position in Actor and Actress, making both of them real possibilities in those races.
On another note, Arrival opened at the box office higher than expected. Audiences were more polarized than critics (many of them loved it) on it, yet its chances at a Best Pic nod seems quite possible at press time.
Allied opens next weekend and reviews should be coming in soon, so its prospects will become much clearer when I write my column on Thanksgiving.
A final comment: next week will be the last weekly post for November and come December, I’ll be predicting the possibilities in all categories at the big dance.
And with that – my weekly Oscar forecast:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 2)
3. Moonlight (PR: 4)
4. Lion (PR: 5)
5. Silence (PR: 3)
6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
7. Arrival (PR: 9)
8. Jackie (PR: 8)
9. Loving (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
10. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
11. Hell or High Water (PR: 11)
12. 20th Century Women (PR: 12)
13. Live by Night (PR: 15)
14. Sully (PR: 16)
15. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 13)
16. The Jungle Book (PR: 17)
17. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 18)
18. Allied (PR: 20)
19. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
20. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rules Don’t Apply
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Best Director
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 3)
3. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 4)
4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 8)
9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)
10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)
5. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 6)
7. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 7)
9. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 9)
10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 3)
3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 2)
4. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)
5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 7)
7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)
8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)
9. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 10)
10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)
2. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 3)
4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 8)
5. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 5)
7. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 4)
8. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 7)
9. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
10. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Aaron Eckhart, Sully
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
Hey all – it’s Thursday and that means time to update Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. Since last Thursday, Denzel Washington’s eagerly awaited Fences held its first industry screenings and solidified itself as a major player this awards season. Beyond that, we’re still in a holding pattern with various titles yet to unveil themselves. That will change soon with such titles as Rules Don’t Apply, Miss Sloane, and Allied… so stay tuned as those pictures reveal themselves to be true contenders or not.
And with that, the November 10th rankings!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 3)
3. Silence (PR: 2)
4. Moonlight (PR: 4)
5. Lion (PR: 5)
6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
7. Loving (PR: 8)
8. Jackie (PR: 7)
9. Arrival (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
10. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
11. Hell or High Water (PR: 11)
12. 20th Century Women (PR: 12)
13. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 13)
14. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 15)
15. Live by Night (PR: 14)
16. Sully (PR: 16)
17. The Jungle Book (PR: 17)
18. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
19. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 18)
20. Allied (PR: 19)
Dropped Out:
Florence Foster Jenkins
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
3. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 5)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Denis Villeneueve, Arrival (PR: 6)
7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 8)
9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)
10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)
4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 7)
7. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 6)
8. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 9)
9. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 10)
10. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
Best Actress
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)
3. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
5. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 5)
7. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 7)
8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Marion Cotillard, Allied
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)
2. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 4)
4. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)
5. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)
7. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 6)
8. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)
9. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)
10. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
Well – we’ve reached November, loyal blog readers and as I’ve mentioned before, I’m paring down the list of Oscar hopefuls in the eight major categories. Over the past two months, I’ve listed 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 for the Directing, Acting, and Screenplay races. Today, it gets whittled down to 20 in BP and 10 in the others. One development of note this week: it appears Dev Patel will be competing in Supporting Actor for Lion instead of Lead. That enters him in the derby for that race, which looks more unpredictable than any other at this moment.
There are still a number of Oscar hopefuls left to screen: Silence, Fences, Live by Night, Rules Don’t Apply, Passengers, The Founder, Hidden Figures, Miss Sloane, Gold among them. In other words, look for shifts in placement as these movies start receiving reviews and buzz in the near future.
Here’s how I have the respective competitions shaping up in this early November period:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 2)
3. Fences (PR: 3)
4. Moonlight (PR: 4)
5. Lion (PR: 5)
6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)
7. Jackie (PR: 6)
8. Loving (PR: 8)
9. Arrival (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
10. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
11. Hell or High Water (PR: 12)
12. 20th Century Women (PR: 11)
13. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 13)
14. Live by Night (PR: 15)
15. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 24)
16. Sully (PR: 14)
17. The Jungle Book (PR: 17)
18. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 16)
19. Allied (PR: 20)
20. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 18)
Dropped Out:
Nocturnal Animals, Miss Sloane, Passengers, Gold, 13th
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
3. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
4. Kenneth Longergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
5. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 7)
7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)
8. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 5)
9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)
10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Mike Mills (20th Century Women), Ang Lee (Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Ben Affleck (Live by Night), Clint Eastwood (Sully)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 4)
4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 6)
7. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
8. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
9. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 13)
10. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
Dev Patel (Lion – moved to Supporting), Michael Keaton (The Founder), Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals), Will Smith (Collateral Beauty), Miles Teller (Bleed for This)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)
4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)
5. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
7. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 7)
8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)
9. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: 10)
10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures), Rachel Weisz (Denial), Jennifer Lawrence (Passengers), Amy Adams (Nocturnal Animals), Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)
2. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)
3. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)
4. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: Not Ranked; considered to be Lead)
5. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 6)
7. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)
8. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 4)
9. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 10)
10. Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Aaron Eckhart (Sully), Sunny Pawar (Lion), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Timothy Spall (Denial), Aaron Eckhart (Bleed for This), Kevin Costner (Hidden Figures)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
7. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
8. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 8)
9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 9)
10. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Helen Mirren (Eye in the Sky), Elle Fanning (20th Century Women), Janelle Monae (Moonlight), Gugu Mbatha-Raw (Miss Sloane), Laura Linney (Nocturnal Animals)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: 3)
2. La La Land (PR: 1)
3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
4. Loving (PR: 5)
5. Jackie (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
7. Hell or High Water (PR: 7)
8. The Lobster (PR: 9)
9. Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
10. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Toni Erdmann, Allied, Rules Don’t Apply, Gold, Florence Foster Jenkins
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Fences (PR: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 2)
3. Lion (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)
8. Live by Night (PR: 8)
9. Love & Friendship (PR: 7)
10. Certain Women (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Sully, Elle, Indignation, The Jungle Book, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
And that shall do it for now, friends! Until next time…
Thursday has arrived and that means a fresh round of Oscar predictions in the 8 biggest categories! The major development this week? The announcement that Viola Davis will compete in Supporting Actress for Fences instead of lead. I’ve had Davis firmly at #3 for weeks on my Best Actress board, but this news puts her at #1 in the supporting race. I’m also growing more confident that both Moonlight (which had a scorching debut in limited release) and Loving will make it into Best Picture and they both rise up in this week’s rankings.
Please note – this will be the final week of predicting 25 Best Picture possibilities and 15 predictions in the other races. Starting next week as November arrives, it’ll be whittled down to 20 in Picture and 10 in the others.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 2)
3. Fences (PR: 3)
4. Moonlight (PR: 6)
5. Lion (PR: 4)
6. Jackie (PR: 5)
7. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)
8. Loving (PR: 10)
9. Arrival (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
10. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
11. 20th Century Women (PR: 11)
12. Hell or High Water (PR: 12)
13. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 18)
14. Sully (PR: 14)
15. Live by Night (PR: 13)
16. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 15)
17. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)
18. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)
19. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 16)
20. Allied (PR: 21)
21. Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Passengers (PR: 24)
23. Gold (PR: 22)
24. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 23)
25. 13th (PR: 20)
Dropped Out:
The Founder
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 3)
5. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 8)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)
10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 13)
11. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women (PR: 11)
12. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 10)
13. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 12)
15. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Ana DuVernay, 13th
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)
5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 6)
7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)
9. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)
10. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 10)
11. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 11)
12. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 14)
13. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 12)
14. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 13)
15. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 15)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
4. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)
5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
7. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 9)
8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
10. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: 12)
11. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 11)
12. Rachel Weisz, Denial (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 15)
14. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 13)
15. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Viola Davis, Fences (competing in Supporting Actress)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)
2. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)
3. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 5)
4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 3)
5. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 8)
7. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
8. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 7)
9. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 9)
10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 10)
11. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 11)
12. Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 13)
14. Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky (PR: 12)
15. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Ben Foster, Hell or High Water
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: Not Ranked, listed in Lead Actress)
2. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
It’s Thursday, ladies and gents, and that means my weely Oscar predictions are in! There’s been some serious changes to the predictions, a new film that’s qualified itself for consideration, and some category shifting that’s occurred within the past week.
So – perhaps some explanation on where I see the state of the races in each of the eight major categories is required this week. My synopsis of said races are for your enjoyment below…
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 2)
3. Fences (PR: 3)
4. Lion (PR: 6)
5. Jackie (PR: 5)
6. Moonlight (PR: 7)
7. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
8. Arrival (PR: 9)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 12)
Other Possibilities
10. Loving (PR: 10)
11. 20th Century Women (PR: 11)
12. Hell or High Water (PR: 14)
13. Live by Night (PR: 13)
14. Sully (PR: 15)
15. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)
16. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 17)
17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 18)
18. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
19. The Jungle Book (PR: 20)
20. 13th (PR: 16)
21. Allied (PR: 21)
22. Gold (PR: 22)
23. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: Not Ranked)
24. Passengers (PR: 23)
25. The Founder (PR: 24)
Dropped Out:
Miss Sloane
I, Daniel Blake
Where The Race Stands…
With La La Land as the current front runner and there’s no doubt about it. The conventional wisdom for the last several weeks is that there were three fall entries that could potentially give it a run for its money: Martin Scorsese’s Silence, Denzel Washington’s Fences, and Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk. That dynamic shifted dramatically when Halftime opened to middling reviews when it screened at the New York Film Festival this weekend. The film has now dropped 11 spots and out of my predicted nominees and it’s unlikely to make its way back in. Silence and Fences now seem the only likely pictures to stand in the way of La La. Meanwhile, Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge makes a serious jump into the possibilities – from not ranked a week ago to #18. I’ve also found room for the Warren Beatty pic Rules Don’t Apply, which has yet to screen. Others on the list of possibilities that have yet to be reviewed (meaning they could jump up when they do or fall out completely): Hidden Figures (which I have in the ninth spot at the moment for a nod), Live by Night, Passengers, Allied, Gold, The Founder and others not currently in the top 25 such as Miss Sloane and Collateral Beauty.
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)
3. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
4. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
5. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 5)
Other Possibilties
6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 7)
7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)
8. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 9)
9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 10)
10. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
11. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women (PR: 12)
12. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 11)
13. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 13)
15. Ana DuVernay, 13th (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Where the Race Stands…
With two-time Oscar winner Ang Lee falling 8 spots after the NYFF Halftime reaction. Chazelle remains at #1 as he’s been for weeks as we await Scorsese and Washington’s films. I’m growing more confident that Lonergan manages to squeeze into the top five.
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)
5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 8)
7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 6)
8. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: Not Ranked in Lead Actor)
9. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 9)
11. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)
12. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 11)
13. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 12)
14. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 15)
15. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Ben Affleck, Live by Night
Where the Race Stands…
Up in the air until we see Denzel’s work in Fences, which could potentially become the immediate front runner as I’m currently estimating. Casey Affleck is getting raves, too and has held steady at #2 for weeks. Andrew Garfield is on the outside looking in for now, but could get in for either Silence or Hacksaw Ridge. There’s also late breaking news that Taylor Hackford’s The Comedian was given a December release for Oscar consideration and perhaps that’ll bode well for its star, Robert De Niro (though I’m not prepared to include him in the mix quite yet). And there’s last week’s reveal that Warren Beatty will compete in this category instead of Supporting, as was previously thought.
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 7)
7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 9)
9. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 12)
11. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 10)
12. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: 14)
13. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 11)
14. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)
15. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 15)
Where the Race Stands…
As one of the most competitive Best Actress races in history. Both Stone and Portman are serious contenders for the win and we haven’t even seen heard the word on Davis’s work in Fences. They appear to be the trio that could win. In any other year, Bening’s acclaimed performance in Women might earn her some overdue recognition, but probably not this year. The fifth slot is much trickier and I almost picked Adams (for Arrival and not Nocturnal Animals) over Negga. Just to show you the competitiveness, Streep in most years would be a shoo-in for her 20th (!) nomination for Jenkins, but could be left out. Others to keep an eye on: Chastain and a dark horse nominee like Hall.
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)
2. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)
3. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 3)
4. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 4)
5. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 10)
7. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 6)
8. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 8)
9. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 9)
10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 11)
11. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 12)
12. Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 13)
14. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (moved to Lead Actor list)
Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Timothy Spall, Denial
Where the Race Stands…
Absolutely and 100% percent wide open… so much so that I’m not confident any of my current picks make the final cut. Some would argue Grant is in, but I’m not totally convinced. Shannon is such a well-respected actor that he’s probably in, but reaction has been very mixed on Nocturnal Animals. Neeson and Henderson’s work has yet to be seen. Bottom line: this particular category could change a lot over the next few weeks.
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 3)
4. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities
6. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 7)
7. Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
8. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 8)
9. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 9)
10. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)
12. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Janelle Monae, Moonlight (PR: 13)
14. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 11)
15. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
Sienna Miller, Live by Night
Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Miss Sloane
Where The Race Stands…
Seemingly with Williams and Harris as the two front runners and it’s been that way for a while after Manchester and Moonlight, respectively, hit the festival circuit. Perhaps one of the two actresses from the not yet screened Hidden Figures (Spencer and Monae, who also got positive notices for Moonlight) could make a play. Otherwise, this looks like a two-way competition at the moment.
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Jackie (PR: 3)
4. Moonlight (PR: 4)
5. 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
Other Possibilties
6. Loving (PR: 7)
7. Hell or High Water (PR: 5)
8. Toni Erdmann (PR: 9)
9. Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
10. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 14)
11. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 11)
12. The Lobster (PR: 12)
13. Allied (PR: 10)
14. Gold (PR: 13)
15. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Captain Fantastic
Where the Race Stands…
As a race that La La Land may not automatically win over Manchester by the Sea. Jackie and Moonlight are also looking solid for nominations with a fifth slot that I keep changing up between 20th Century Women, Loving, and Hell or High Water.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Fences (PR: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 2)
3. Lion (PR: 3)
4. Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
5. Arrival (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
7. Love & Friendship (PR: 11)
8. Live by Night (PR: 8)
9. Elle (PR: 10)
10. Sully (PR: 9)
11. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)
12. The Jungle Book (PR: 14)
13. Indignation (PR: 12)
14. Certain Women (PR: 13)
15. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Denial
Where the Race Stands…
In a waiting pattern as Fences and Silence have yet to screen. They could both be heavy hitters. If they both falter, look to Lion.
And that does it for this week, folks! Until next time…
It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are in! As with previous weeks, I’m ranking the top 25 most likely Best Picture nominees along with top 15 in seven other big races. Come November – those numbers will dwindle to 20 and 10, respectively. You can see where each nominee has risen or fallen or stayed the same from one week ago.
Some developments… Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk is expected to screen this weekend so the buzz will be out (meaning its Oscar picture will become more clear soon). Loving took a hit this week and is out of my Best Picture predictions for the first time (enter Arrival). And the poor debut of The Birth of a Nation has knocked it out of the top 25 altogether.
**I’ll note again that just because I rank a picture, director, or actor at #1 doesn’t mean I’m predicting them to win. It just means their first on chances of a nomination. I won’t get into predicting winners until after the nominations are released.
And with that… let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 3)
3. Fences (PR: 2)
4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
5. Jackie (PR: 9)
6. Lion (PR: 4)
7. Moonlight (PR: 7)
8. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
9. Arrival (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities
10. Loving (PR: 8)
11. 20th Century Women (PR: 19)
12. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
13. Live by Night (PR: 13)
14. Hell or High Water (PR: 15)
15. Sully (PR: 12)
16. 13th (PR: 16)
17. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)
18. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 20)
19. Miss Sloane (PR: 24)
20. The Jungle Book (PR: 18)
21. Allied (PR: 23)
22. Gold (PR: 22)
23. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)
24. The Founder (PR: 21)
25. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 25)
Dropped Out:
The Birth of a Nation
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)
3. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
5. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 9)
8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
9. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 8)
10. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 10)
11. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 13)
12. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 12)
14. Ana DuVernay, 13th (PR: 11)
15. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)
4. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 3)
5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)
7. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)
8. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 10)
9. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
10. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 9)
11. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 11)
12. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 14)
13. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 12)
14. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 13)
15. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
7. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
9. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 9)
10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 14)
11. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 11)
12. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
13. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)
14. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: 12)
15. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 15)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)
2. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 1)
3. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 4)
4. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 3)
5. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 5)
7. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)
8. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 9)
9. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 7)
10. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 13)
11. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 10)
12. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 14)
13. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 12)
14. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 11)
15. Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Michelle Williams, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 3)
4. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
5. Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities
6. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)
7. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 11)
8. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 7)
9. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)
10. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
11. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
12. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 12)
13. Janelle Monae, Moonlight (PR: 13)
14. Sienna Miller, Live by Night (Not Ranked)
15. Guga Mbatha Raw, Miss Sloane (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Jackie (PR: 4)
4. Moonlight (PR: 3)
5. Hell or High Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. 20th Century Women (PR: 7)
7. Loving (PR: 5)
8. Miss Sloane (PR: 11)
9. Toni Erdmann (PR: 15)
10. Allied (PR: 14)
11. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)
12. The Lobster (PR: 10)
13. Gold (PR: 13)
14. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 8)
15. Captain Fantastic (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Zootopia
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Fences (PR: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 2)
3. Lion (PR: 3)
4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Arrival (PR: 8)
7. Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
8. Live by Night (PR: 9)
9. Sully (PR: 6)
10. Elle (PR: 11)
11. Love & Friendship (PR: 12)
12. Indignation (PR: 10)
13. Certain Women (PR: Not Ranked)
14. The Jungle Book (PR: 13)
15. Denial (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
A Monster Calls
Whew! And there you have it… I’ll be back at it next Thursday!
It’s Thursday and that means I’m back at it with my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. So what’s transpired over the past seven days? Quite a bit! The Girl on the Train, which opens tomorrow, was screened with very mixed critical reaction. It had been at the lower end (#24 last week) of possible Best Picture nominees, but it now appears its chances have been completely derailed. Don’t expect it to appear on the list again. I do still have Emily Blunt as a long-shot Actress possibility, but Haley Bennett’s work in Supporting Actress and an Adapted Screenplay nomination have also fallen off.
We also got a trailer for Pablo Larrain’s Jackie, which could be a contender in several races. And we received official word that Ben Affleck’s Prohibition era crime pic Live by Night will be released in limited fashion in late December, qualifying it for the Academy’s consideration.
And there was the debut at the New York Film Festival of Ana DuVernay’s race relations documentary 13th. It’s important to note that no doc has been nominated for Best Picture, so it’s got a steep hill to climb. Yet it’s possible and joins the contenders of hopefuls this week.
*A final note before we get to predictions. It is my plan throughout October to keep with listing 25 Best Picture possibilities and 15 in the other races. By the first week of November, this will shift to 20 for Best Picture and ten in the others.
And with that, this week’s predictions:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 2)
3. Silence (PR: 3)
4. Lion (PR: 5)
5. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)
6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
7. Moonlight (PR: 7)
8. Loving (PR: 8)
9. Jackie (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities
10. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
11. Arrival (PR: 11)
12. Sully (PR: 12)
13. Live by Night (PR: 15)
14. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 13)
15. Hell or High Water (PR: 14)
16. 13th (PR: Not Ranked)
17. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 16)
18. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)
19. 20th Century Women (PR: 18)
20. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)
21. The Founder (PR: 22)
22. Gold (PR: 21)
23. Allied (PR: 23)
24. Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)
25. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 25)
Dropped Out:
Passengers
The Girl on the Train
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)
3. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 9)
7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 6)
8. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 7)
9. Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 10)
10. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 8)
11. Ana DuVernay, 13th (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 13)
13. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 15)
14. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 12)
15. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 3)
4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)
5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)
7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
9. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 11)
10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)
11. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 12)
12. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 10)
13. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 15)
14. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 13)
15. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 14)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
7. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)
8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 12)
9. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)
10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
11. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)
12. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 11)
14. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Rachel Weisz, Denial
Sally Field, My Name is Doris
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 1)
2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)
3. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 4)
5. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 5)
7. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 6)
8. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 10)
9. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 14)
10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 8)
12. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 7)
13. Lucas Hedges, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 11)
14. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 13)
15. Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Timothy Spall, Denial
Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 3)
4. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 11)
5. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
It’s my weekly Thursday Oscar predictions in the eight major categories coming your way and there has been some news since last Thursday. It was officially confirmed that Martin Scorsese’s passion project Silence will be released in December in time for awards consideration (maybe we’ll finally get a trailer soon!). There were trailers released for some high-profile contenders: Denzel Washington’s Fences and Mike Mills’s 20th Century Women.
As we do every week, I’ll rank my top 25 contenders for Best Picture along with top 15 for the directing, acting, and screenplay races (you can also see the movement from the previous week’s ranking to now).
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 2)
3. Silence (PR: 4)
4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)
5. Lion (PR: 7)
6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
7. Moonlight (PR: 6)
8. Loving (PR: 8)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Jackie (PR: 11)
11. Arrival (PR: 12)
12. Sully (PR: 13)
13. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)
14. Hell or High Water (PR: 16)
15. Live by Night (PR: 14)
16. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 15)
17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 19)
18. 20th Century Women (PR: 17)
19. The Jungle Book (PR: 21)
20. Passengers (PR: 25)
21. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
22. The Founder (PR: 22)
23. Allied (PR: 18)
24. The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)
25. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 23)
Dropped Out:
Collateral Beauty
Hacksaw Ridge
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)
7. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 6)
8. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)
9. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 11)
10. Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 10)
11. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 12)
12. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 9)
13. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 13)
14. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Robert Zemeckis, Allied
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
3. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)
4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)
7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 9)
9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 10)
10. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 12)
11. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 11)
13. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 8)
14. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)
15. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
5. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)
7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 9)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
10. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)
11. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 12)
12. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 11)
13. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 13)
14. Rachel Weisz, Denial (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Sally Field, My Name is Doris (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rooney Mara, Una
Marion Cotillard, Allied
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 1)
2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)
3. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
5. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 6)
7. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 8)
8. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
9. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 10)
10. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 11)
11. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 9)
12. Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 13)
13. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 12)
14. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
4. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
5. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
7. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 7)
8. Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 11)
10. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)
11. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 9)
12. Haley Bennett, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)
13. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 10)
14. Sienna Miller, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty
Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation
Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. La Land Land (PR: 1)
2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Moonlight (PR: 3)
4. Jackie (PR: 4)
5. Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hell or High Water (PR: 6)
7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)
8. 20th Century Women (PR: 7)
9. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 13)
10. The Lobster (PR: 8)
11. Zootopia (PR: 11)
12. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)
13. Gold (PR: 12)
14. Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Collateral Beauty
Allied
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Fences (PR: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 3)
3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
4. Lion (PR: 4)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
7. Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Elle (PR: 11)
9. Sully (PR: 8)
10. Love & Friendship (PR: 12)
11. Indignation (PR: 13)
12. The Girl on the Train (PR: 10)
13. Live by Night (PR: 9)
14. The Jungle Book (PR: 15)
15. A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Denial
And that’ll do it for the weekly Oscar predictions! Check back next week, folks…
There are few actors out there who can truly open a movie, but Denzel Washington is one of them. He’s back on screen for the first time in two years with The Magnificent Seven next weekend. A remake of the 1960 classic with Yul Brynner (which itself was a reworking of 1954’s Seven Samurai), this Western re-teams Washington with his Training Day and The Equalizer director Antoine Fuqua. It also features the red-hot Chris Pratt, Training costar Ethan Hawke, Vincent D’Onofrio, Peter Sarsgaard, and Haley Bennett.
Early reviews for Seven have been mixed, but this is likely to be a critic proof exercise that delivers an impressive debut. To give you some perspective on Washington’s star power, his last seven pictures have made over $20 million out of the gate (The Taking of Pelham 123, The Book of Eli, Unstoppable, Safe House, Flight, 2 Guns, The Equalizer). Three (Eli, House, Equalizer) have topped $30M and Safe House managed $40M. With its familiar title and the participation of Pratt (coming off summer 2014’s biggest hit Guardians of the Galaxy and summer 2015’s biggest hit Jurassic World), Seven could also join the plus $40M club. In fact, if this reaches over $43 million (the number that Washington’s 2007 pic American Gangster accomplished), it would mark his largest opening.
I believe it will accomplish that feat for a mid to high 40s debut and that would give it the #2 September premiere of all time.
The Magnificent Seven opening weekend prediction: $47.1 million
A number of recent Oscar Watch posts on this here blog has made one thing abundantly clear: the Best Actress race looks to be a competitive one in 2016. Already, Emma Stone (La La Land), Ruth Negga (Loving), Rooney Mara (Una), Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins), and Amy Adams (Nocturnal Animals or Arrival) have established themselves as possibilities. And there’s still performers such as Viola Davis (Fences), Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train), Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane), and Jennifer Lawrence (Passengers) waiting in the wings.
Yet the race potentially got more interesting at the Venice Film Festival as Jackie has screened to some rave critical reaction. A biopic of First Lady Jacqueline Onassis Kennedy, it’s directed by acclaimed Chilean filmmaker Pablo Farrain and stars Natalie Portman in the title role. Early trade reviews have been over the moon with Portman’s portrayal, with one of them claiming that it may surpass her Oscar winning work in 2010’s Black Swan.
Interestingly, unlike most biopics, this is not based on a book or series of them. Therefore, this could qualify for an Original Screenplay nod. Based on the buzz so far, the love could perhaps extend to the Picture itself and Mr. Farrain.
Yet Jackie is most likely to garner attention for the woman playing her (whether costars such as Greta Gerwig, Peter Sarsgaard and Billy Crudup get noticed remains to be seen). Portman hasn’t really had a buzzed about awards role since Swan six years ago and this appears to be just that. As long as Jackie finds a distributor to give it 2016 consideration (something that will probably occur this week), we appear to have another major factor in an already crowded category.
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 