Tag: Peter Jackson

Oscar Predictions – The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

Tolkien goes anime when The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim marches into multiplexes this weekend. Set nearly 200 years before the events of Peter Jackson’s blockbuster trilogy,
Kenjii Kamiyama helms the fantasy adventure with Brian Cox, Gaia Wise, Luke Pasqualino, and Miranda Otto providing vocal support.

Word-of-mouth is rather middling with 65% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 58 Metacritic. While the live-action LOTR flicks all received Best Picture noms (with capper The Return of the King winning), Rohirrim appears on the outside looking in. The Animated Feature five already seems set with The Wild Robot, Inside Out 2, Flow, Memoir of a Snail, and Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl. Surprises are always possible, but it won’t be this getting into the race. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim Box Office Prediction

A beloved fantasy franchise gets the anime and prequel treatment when The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim debuts December 13th. Set nearly 200 years before the events of Peter Jackson’s Oscar-winning trilogy, Kenji Kamiyama directs the animated adventure with Brian Cox, Gala Wise, Luke Pasqualino, and Miranda Otto providing voiceover work.

Obviously there’s a built-in audience for any adaptation of J.R.R. Tolkien’s creations. That makes this estimate tricky. A small portion of moviegoers may turn up not even knowing that it is anime. Some may stay away for that very reason. There’s also Kraven the Hunter opening the same weekend that could siphon off some action fans.

This certainly has the chance to exceed my number, but I’m projecting high single digits for a lackluster showing.

The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim opening weekend prediction: $8 million

For my Kraven the Hunter prediction, click here:

Kraven the Hunter Box Office Prediction

Best Picture 2005: The Expanded Ten

Previously on the blog, I completed a series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 for the past couple of years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned 14 posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them!

Now my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there was a set five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.

This series will project the other five that I believe would’ve gotten in. I’ve already covered 2006-08 and you can peruse my posts on them here:

Best Picture 2006: The Expanded Ten
Best Picture 2007: The Expanded Ten
Best Picture 2008: The Expanded Ten

We do know half of the titles that would populate the ten. Those would be the ones that made the quintet 18 years back. During that 78th Oscar ceremony, Jack Nicholson made the surprise announcement that race relations drama Crash from Paul Haggis was the Best Picture winner. Of its seven total nominations, it also won Original Screenplay and Film Editing.

It stands as one of the bigger upsets in the Academy’s history as it took gold over the heavily favored Brokeback Mountain by Ang Lee. He won Director and the cowboy romance also received Adapted Screenplay and Original Score. The other three nominees: Bennett Miller’s Capote (for which Philip Seymour Hoffman took Best Actor), George Clooney’s Good Night, and Good Luck, and Steven Spielberg’s Munich.

2005 was the rare year where the Director nominees matched perfectly with BP so we can’t pluck out other movies from that competition. A look at the other categories do give us clues as to the other features that might’ve gotten in.

James Mangold’s Cash couple biopic Walk the Line landed Joaquin Phoenix a Best Actor nod and Reese Witherspoon the Actress statue. With a total of five mentions, a Golden Globe victory in the Musical/Comedy race, and a Critics Choice slot, it’s pretty safe to assume it makes the ten.

Same goes for The Constant Gardner from Fernando Meirelles. Rachel Weisz took Supporting Actress and it received three other noms in addition to Golden Globe and Critics Choice inclusions.

Another Critics Choicer nominee, Rob Marshall’s Memoirs of a Geisha got 6 tech nods and won 3 (Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume Design). I went back and forth on this one, but ultimately decided it probably makes the dance.

A fourth Critics Choice match goes to Ron Howard’s Cinderella Man. The boxing drama could be left off. It missed some key nods including Russell Crowe’s lead performance (Paul Giamatti was nominated for supporting) and screenplay. I think it might have just snuck in at the bottom of hopefuls.

With one picture left to plug in, there’s plenty of contenders. Hustle & Flow saw a surprise win (for Three 6 Mafia) in Original Song and Terrence Howard made the Actor five. Woody Allen’s Match Point had a sole nom in Original Screenplay, but made the Globes cut in Drama. Joe Wright’s Pride & Prejudice rendering saw Keira Knightley up in Actress in addition to three other mentions.

Ultimately my final choice came to this trio. Peter Jackson’s King Kong went 3 for 4 on its tech inclusions (Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects). However, it was generally considered a bit of a disappointment at the box office and with some critics. That said, I almost picked it.

Syriana by Stephen Gaghan gave George Clooney a Supporting Actor Oscar and was up for Original Screenplay. Yet it failed to see a Critics Choice or Globe BP nod. Nevertheless I almost picked it.

I chose to go with David Cronenberg’s A History of Violence. It received two noms for Supporting Actor (William Hurt) and Original Screenplay and was a critical darling. I went with the Academy honoring a work from the acclaimed director (especially since most of his efforts are far from Oscar friendly).

That means my expanded 2005 ten consists of:

A History of Violence

Brokeback Mountain

Capote

Cinderella Man

The Constant Gardner

Crash

Good Night, and Good Luck

Memoirs of a Geisha

Munich

Walk the Line

I’ll have 2004 up in short order!

Oscar Watch: The Velvet Underground

The 2021 crop of documentary hopefuls has the potential to be quite a sonically pleasing affair. Just recently, I discussed Questlove’s heralded Summer of Soul which seems like a surefire contender. We also have acclaimed directors known most for non-docs staking a claim in the subgenre.

At the Cannes Film Festival, Todd Haynes has just debuted The Velvet Underground. Focused on the influential NYC band featuring Lou Reed, this is yet another acclaimed example of an auteur dipping back into the musical vaults. Edgar Wright did so earlier this year with The Sparks Brothers. Peter Jackson has his three-part The Beatles: Get Back hitting Disney Plus in November.

Haynes is most known for numerous indie darlings. His screenplay for 2002’s Far from Heaven was nominated, but he was surprisingly not mentioned for directing or writing with 2015’s Carol. Could the Academy recognize him here?

It’s now standard practice on the blog to point out that the Academy’s documentary branch is a fickle bunch. There could simply be too many rock docs competing against each other (and I’d certainly give Soul an edge over this). However, depending on the forthcoming competition, there could potentially be room for this Underground offering. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Best Picture: A Look Back

A few weeks ago, I posted look backs at major categories at the Oscars from 1990 to the present. I’ve covered all four acting races and if you missed it, you can peruse them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/04/best-actor-a-look-back/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/31/best-actress-a-look-back/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/25/best-supporting-actor-a-look-back/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/20/best-supporting-actress-a-look-back/

In each post, I review what I’d classify as the three least surprising winners, as well as the three biggest upsets. And I select what I believe are the strongest and weakest overall fields.

Today on the blog, we arrive at the Big Daddy – Best Picture. It’s important to remember that hindsight doesn’t come into play here. For instance, Forrest Gump won the top prize in 1994. Since then, many believe fellow nominees Pulp Fiction or The Shawshank Redemption should have won. Yet the Gump victory was not an upset at the time. Same goes for 1990 when Dances with Wolves bested GoodFellas.

Let’s begin with a reminder of each winner since 1990:

1990 – Dances with Wolves

1991 – The Silence of the Lambs

1992 – Unforgiven

1993 – Schindler’s List

1994 – Forrest Gump

1995 – Braveheart

1996 – The English Patient

1997 – Titanic

1998 – Shakespeare in Love

1999 – American Beauty

2000 – Gladiator

2001 – A Beautiful Mind

2002 – Chicago

2003 – Lord of the Rings: Return of the King

2004 – Million Dollar Baby

2005 – Crash

2006 – The Departed

2007 – No Country for Old Men

2008 – Slumdog Millionaire

2009 – The Hurt Locker

2010 – The King’s Speech

2011 – The Artist

2012 – Argo

2013 – 12 Years a Slave

2014 – Birdman

2015 – Spotlight

2016 – Moonlight

2017 – The Shape of Water

We start with my three least surprising winners:

3. Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003)

Peter Jackson’s final entry in the acclaimed trilogy seemed due for a win after the first two installments were nominated, but lost to A Beautiful Mind and Chicago. This was as much a recognition for the entire franchise and by 2003, it was obvious the Academy would move in that direction.

2. Titanic (1997)

James Cameron’s epic was plagued with rumors of a troubled shoot and the possibility seemed real that it could be a costly flop. The opposite occurred as Titanic became the highest grossing motion picture of all time upon its release. It seemed clear that Oscar love would follow.

1. Schindler’s List (1993)

Capping an amazing year which saw Steven Spielberg direct Jurassic Park over the summer, his Holocaust feature Schindler’s List became the undeniable front-runner at its end of year release. Winning all significant precursors, this was a shoo-in selection.

Now to the upsets. In my view, there were four very real ones and I had to leave one out. That would be 1995 when Braveheart emerged victorious over the favored Apollo 13 and Sense and Sensibility. Yet there’s 3 others that I feel top it.

3. Moonlight (2016)

La La Land appeared ready to pick up the gold after its filmmaker Damien Chazelle and lead actress Emma Stone had already won. And it looked like the script was being followed when Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway actually announced the musical as Best Picture. Perhaps Oscar’s largest controversy followed as the wrong envelope was given and the Barry Jenkins effort Moonlight had actually won. Correct envelopes or not, the Moonlight victory was still unexpected given the La La momentum.

2. Shakespeare in Love (1998)

All eyes were on Spielberg’s World War II epic Saving Private Ryan to win as Spielberg had already picked up his second statue for directing. Shakespeare rewrote that script and few saw it coming.

1. Crash (2005)

Here is perhaps the most surprising BP winner in history. Ang Lee’s Brokeback Mountain was the strong favorite when the Paul Haggis race relations drama took it. Even presenter Jack Nicholson looked shocked when he read the envelope.

And now the fields. That’s a bit tough because just under a decade ago, the Academy switched from five finite nominees to anywhere between five and ten (nine being the most common). For weakest, I’m going with 2011 when there were 9. While there’s some quality picks like The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, and The Tree of Life – I feel even some of them might have missed the cut in stronger years. And I think that certainly applies to Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, The Help, and War Horse.

For strongest, I will go with the aforementioned 1994. Pulp Fiction and Shawshank are indeed two of the most impressive cinematic contributions in recent times. Winner Gump and other nominees Quiz Show and Four Weddings and a Funeral filled out the slate.

And that does it, folks! Hope you enjoyed my look back at Best Picture in modern times.

Oscar Watch: Mortal Engines

The big-budget dystopian adventure Mortal Engines is out next weekend and signs are pointing to a sub par performance at the box office. While it’s directed by first timer Christian Rivers, it comes from the writing team of Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh, and Philippa Boyens. This is the trio behind the Lord of the Rings and Hobbit franchises, as well as 2005’s King Kong remake.

Those pictures have a slew of technical Oscar nominations and wins to their credit. So it’s worth wondering if Engines could compete in some of those races. Unlike most of the aforementioned pics, reviews are not strong here with a current rating of 38% on Rotten Tomatoes. However, Visual Effects and the two sound categories could potentially be in play.

My feeling is that only Visual Effects is possible and that could be a stretch. MCU titles Avengers: Infinity War and Black Panther likely have their spots reserved with a third (Ant–Man and the Wasp) in the mix. Disney also has Mary Poppins Returns and Solo: A Star Wars Story competing. Other serious contenders include First Man and Ready Player One.

Bottom line: I wouldn’t completely dismiss Engines as a contender for Visual accolades, but don’t count on it. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Mortal Engines Box Office Prediction

The high budgeted dystopian adventure Mortal Engines hopes to bring in viewers next weekend  based mostly on its connections to the Lord of the Rings franchise. Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh, and Philippa Boyens share writing duties, just as they did on that blockbuster franchise. Unlike that series, Mr. Jackson is not directing as protegé Christian Rivers makes his feature-length debut. There’s no big stars in a cast that includes Hugo Weaving, Hera Hilmar, Robert Sheehan, Jihae, and Stephen Lang.

Even with its well-known talent behind the camera, Engines faces an uphill battle for attention. Reviews aren’t so hot with a current rating of 36% on Rotten Tomatoes. It could get lost in the glut of holiday titles and faces demographic competition from Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse, which opens directly against it.

With those challenges, I’m predicting the reported $100 million dollar effort will stall out of the gate. That means low single digits to low teens and the likelihood it won’t hold well in subsequent weekends.

Mortal Engines opening weekend prediction: $12.4 million

For my Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/12/04/spider-man-into-the-spider-verse-box-office-prediction/

For my The Mule prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/12/05/the-mule-box-office-prediction/

The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies Box Office Prediction

Over a decade after he wrapped up his historic and Oscar winning Lord of the Rings trilogy, director Peter Jackson wraps up his Hobbit trilogy with The Battle of the Five Armies, out Wednesday.

Moviegoers have been treated to a Hobbit pic around Christmas time for the last three years. 2012’s An Unexpected Journey opened to $84 million on its way to a $303M domestic haul. Last year’s The Desolation of Smaug couldn’t match that number. It debuted to $73 million with an eventual $258M gross. There is some reason to believe Armies could outdo at least Smaug.

For starters, it’s the last of the series which could pique interest for some audience members wishing to bid the franchise a farewell. Reviews have been pretty solid and it sits at 71% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Many high profile critics have gone out of their way to proclaim it the best and most exciting of the trilogy.

Unlike its predecessors, Armies premieres on a Wednesday so a five day prediction is in order. I’ll predict that its five day haul gets over what Journey managed in three days while its Friday to Sunday gross marks the lowest of the franchise due to the expanded rollout.

The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies opening weekend prediction: $67.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $93.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my prediction on Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/13/night-at-the-museum-secret-of-the-tomb-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Annie, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/14/annie-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Wild, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/15/wild-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: January 10-12

The second weekend of 2014 brings three new wide release offerings for your consideration – the war drama Lone Survivor with Mark Wahlberg, Renny Harlin’s The Legend of Hercules, and Spike Jonze’s critically acclaimed Her with Joaquin Phoenix. You can peruse my individual prediction posts on them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/lone-survivor-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/the-legend-of-hercules-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/05/her-box-office-prediction/

My predictions reflect a belief that Lone Survivor should fairly easily open at #1. The Legend of Hercules could completely bomb, but I’m giving it enough credit to reach double digits at the three spot. Her likely won’t reach double digits.

Last weekend’s champ Frozen should slip to second while I am predicting holdovers The Wolf of Wall Street and The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug will battle Her for slots 4-6.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend box office:

1. Lone Survivor

Predicted Gross: $21.7 million

2. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $13.5 million (representing a drop of 31%)

3. The Legend of Hercules

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million

4. The Wolf of Wall Street

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million (representing a drop of 36%)

5. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million (representing a drop of 46%)

6. Her

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

Blogger’s note: For the past several months, I’ve been doing box office results analysis every Sunday. Starting next week, I will be combining the results from the previous weekend with this here weekly predictions post for the next weekend which comes every Monday. The main reason: I’m usually busy Sunday doing my predictions posts for the next week’s newcomers, which will continue without interruption. Secondly, the final box office numbers come in Monday so I can more accurately update how I performed. Until next time, my friends!

This Day in Movie History: January 2

This day in Movie History – January 2 – Peter Jackson’s final installment in his Lord of the Rings trilogy, The Return of the King, would top the box office for the third weekend in a row, grossing over $28 million. This gave it $290M in just three weeks and it would end its domestic run at $377M, out grossing its two predecessors. King would go on to win Best Picture and Director at the Oscars. And the more things change, the more they stay the same. Exactly a decade later, the director’s second Tolkien trilogy The Hobbit is scoring similar feats. The second installment in the series The Desolation of Smaug is currently #1 for its third weekend, though its taken in approximately $100 million less in the same time frame as King did.

As for birthdays, Tia Carrere turns 47 today. You may remember her best as Mike Myers’ love interest in 1992’s Wayne’s World and its sequel the following year. Her exposure from those hits led her to starring alongside such heavy hitters as Sean Connery in 1993’s Rising Sun and Arnold Schwarzenegger in 1994’s True Lies. And then… well she went from Connery and Arnold to Pauly Shore and Jon Lovitz. Her mid 90s filmography included Jury Duty with Shore and High School High with Lovitz. Her movie career never recovered, but she did recently last five weeks on Donald Trump’s “Celebrity Apprentice” (!).

Cuba Gooding Jr. is 46 today. He’s another performer to have hit it big in the 90s and then see his career fizzle. His big break came with 1991’s Boyz N The Hood and that led to roles in A Few Good Men, Judgment Night, and Outbreak. In 1996, Cuba won Supporting Actor at the Oscars for his role as Rod Tidwell in Cameron Crowe’s Jerry Maguire. It looked good for him after that and he appeared in high profile pics including As Good As It Gets, What Dreams May Come, and Men of Honor. By the early 2000s, things had taken a turn for the worse when Gooding starred in bombs including Snow Dogs and Boat Trip. Recently, however, he’s had a decent comeback with supporting roles in movies like American Gangster, Red Tails, and Lee Daniels’ The Butler.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between the two:

Tia Carrere was in True Lies with Jamie Lee Curtis

Jamie Lee Curtis was in Trading Places with Eddie Murphy

Eddie Murphy was in Norbit with Cuba Gooding Jr.

And that’s today – January 2 – in Movie History!