Dito Montiel directs the crime comedy Riff Raff, premiering this weekend from Roadside Attractions. Jennifer Coolidge, Ed Harris (pulling double duty with My Dead Friend Zoe out this frame), Gabrielle Union, Lewis Pullman, Pete Davidson, and Bill Murray make up the impressive cast.
It originally debuted at the Toronto Film Festival last fall to mixed notices. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 55% with 45 on Metacritic. This certainly isn’t an Academy play, but better reviews could’ve put this in contention at the Globes next year in the Musical or Comedy derbies. The so-so buzz eliminates that possibility. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
DreamWorks Animation’s Dog Man should rule the upcoming box office frame with a decent family audience showing. Based on Dav Pilkey’s graphic novel and a spinoff of 2017’s Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie, Peter Hastings directs and voices the title character. Further behind the mic contributions come from Pete Davidson, Lil Rel Howery, Isla Fisher, Poppy Liu, Billy Boyd, and Ricky Gervais.
Reviews are mixed and even the positive notices are far from raves. Rotten Tomatoes stands at 70% with Metacritic at 60. While DreamWorks may have been the first studio to win Animated Feature at the Academy Awards via 2001’s Shrek, the bulk of their library has missed the cut. That should be the case with Dog Man. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
DreamWorks Animation looks for Dog Man to top the charts when it debuts January 31st. A spin-off of 2017’s Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie, Peter Hastings directs and provides the voice of the title canine. The adaptation of Dav Pilkey’s graphic novel features behind the mic work from Pete Davidson, Lil Rel Howery, Isla Fisher, Poppy Liu, Stephen Root, Billy Boyd, and Ricky Gervais.
In the summer of 2017, Underpants dropped with a $23.9 million premiere. That turned out to be a front loaded opening as it ended up with $73.9 million domestically. That could be right around where Dog sits and that should be enough for a first place showing.
So we actually have 51 cast members in my all-time top 50 because it’s impossible not to put these two together. Let’s be honest – Saturday Night Live is a show that can swing from a strong episode one weekend to a weaker outing the next. Sometimes this depends on the host or maybe the third episode in as many weeks tends to run out of gas.
Yet in the past decade, Weekend Update has been a consistent highlight thanks to the coanchoring skills of Michael Che and Colin Jost. The latter has been on staff as a writer since 2005 while the former came on board in 2013. Lorne Michaels paired them together at the beginning of season 40 on air and they’re still going in season 50.
The Che/Jost Update started off shaky. It didn’t take long for them to hit their stride and this is best evidenced by the hilariously inappropriate Joke Swap bit they do each year. That’s when the anchors pen off-color gags for one another to read without the deliverer having seen it. As Banya from Seinfeld would say, it’s (comedy) gold. They also expertly manage top-notch performers including Kate McKinnon, Cecily Strong, Heidi Gardner, Pete Davidson, Bowen Yang, and more doing some of their best work on the fake news set. Che and Jost are in the upper echelon of SNLers behind the Update desk in its half century of existence. #21 will be up soon!
I struggled with whether Pete Davidson would make my list of SNL’s Top 50 Cast Members. He hasn’t always been my cup of tea. I’m not a particular fan of his standup. Ultimately he does get in for a couple of reasons.
The most obvious is that a solid portion of his material has been genuinely funny from his 8 years on the program. He started at the age of 20 and he’s most known for playing a version of himself. Oftentimes on Weekend Update bits, he would do just that and comment on his highly publicized relationships. Davidson, more than any other performer in the show’s history, is the kind of cast member we should expect in a reality show world. I’m not sure that’s a positive development, but Davidson shined often anyway.
This includes his movie reviewing alongside John Mulaney, his hilariously oblivious Chad, and his interpretations of Eminem tracks. #41 will be up soon!
After premiering at the Toronto Film Festival and performing decently (though not spectacularly) in limited fashion, Craig Gillespie’s Dumb Money opens wide in theaters on September 29th. It recounts the 2021 true life of GameStop’s brief and unexpected explosion on the stock market. The large ensemble includes Paul Dano, Pete Davidson, Vincent D’Onofrio, America Ferrera, Nick Offerman, Anthony Ramos, Sebastian Stan, Shailene Woodley, and Seth Rogen.
There’s plenty of comps to The Big Short (while not as effusive) as the dramedy holds a steady 83% on Rotten Tomatoes. The platform release includes showing on over 600 screens this weekend. I’ve yet to see a final count for the next frame, but it should be on at least 2000 screens. If that number changes, my projection could. Same goes for how it performs in around 600 venues.
The smart money is a projection in the $5-8 million range and I’ll put it right in the lower end of that scale.
Dumb Money opening weekend (wide expansion) prediction: $5.5 million
Craig Gillespie’s Dumb Money is one of the higher profile debuts at the Toronto Film Festival. It recounts 2021’s life is stranger than fiction tale of stock manipulation causing GameStop to become the #1 financial property. Paul Dano, Pete Davidson, Vincent D’Onofrio, America Ferrera, Nick Offerman, Anthony Ramos, Sebastian Stan, Shailene Woodley, and Seth Rogen star.
The trailer and subject matter hinted we were entering The Big Short territory. That 2015 similarly themed pic netted 5 Academy nods, including Best Picture and a victory in Adapted Screenplay. Dumb sits at 86% on Rotten Tomatoes based on Ontario reactions. I wouldn’t completely discount it resonating with awards voters. However, I suspect Adapted Screenplay might be the only race where it has a shot of getting in (despite kudos for Davidson and Ferrera in particular for their supporting parts). In other words, anticipate it falling short of The Big Short. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts debuts Friday and it marks the seventh entry in the franchise that began in 2007. This has never been a series known for critical acclaim, but reviews have been on the uptick as of late.
The Rotten Tomatoes score for Beasts is 57%. That’s actually tied for second best of the bunch as the first Transformers has the same rating. #1 by far is the 91% achieved by immediate predecessor Bumblebee from 2018. The other four were at 35% or under (2017’s The Last Knight is lowest at 16%).
That said, certain technical aspects were noticed by the Academy for awhile. Part 1 was nominated for Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects (note that these sound races have since been combined). 2009’s follow-up Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen was up for Sound Mixing. 2011’s third adventure Transformers: Dark of the Moon landed the same three mentions as the first. There are no victories among the seven nominations.
However, the next three pics (2014’s Age of Extinction, The Last Knight, Bumblebee) were ignored by voters. And if Bumblebee couldn’t manage a Sound or VE spot, it’s tough to see Beasts rising to the challenge. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Representing the longest drought between entries, it’s been nearly four and a half years without Optimus onscreen. Paramount is hoping audiences will be primed for the franchise’s return as Transformers: Rise of the Beasts debuts on June 9th. This is the seventh installment of the series that started in 2007 with Michael Bay helming the first five. He produces while Steven Caple Jr. (best known for Creed II) directs. The non-voiceover cast includes Anthony Ramos, Dominique Fishback, Luna Lauren Vélez, Tobe Ngigwe, and Michael Kelly. Those voices behind the various title bots include Peter Cullen, Ron Perlman, Peter Dinklage, Michelle Yeoh, Lisa Koshy, Michaela Jaé Rodriguez, Pete Davidson, Colman Domingo, John DiMaggio, and David Sobolov.
Beasts serves as a direct follow-up to 2018’s Bumblebee and a prequel to editions I-V. The Transformers pics have certainly seen their fortunes fade in recent years. Domestically the peak was Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, which earned $402 million overall stateside. The first three titles all grossed north of $300 million. By 2017, Transformers: The Last Knight managed $130 million. Bumblebee was a smidge under at $127 million.
To be fair, expectations for Bumblebee weren’t nearly as high and it rode decent reviews and solid buzz to a commendable leg out over the holidays. The lengthy break may not help Beasts and there’s no returning human stars from previous adventures.
This only needs to top $21 million to avoid a franchise low three-day beginning. It should have no trouble there. The better comp is probably The Last Knight which premiered with $44 million for its Friday to Sunday take (though it made $68 million when you count its Wednesday start). I’ll say Beasts falls a bit shy of that.
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts opening weekend prediction: $42.2 million
The rich, entitled, and woke characters in Halina Reijn’s Bodies Bodies Bodies don’t need to be likable and they certainly aren’t. They do need interesting dialogue and a compelling or frightening storyline to work with. That happens too rarely in this monotonous satiric slasher with its takedown of the elite class.
Drinking, pills, and hard drugs are on the menu at the mansion of David (Pete Davidson) as a hurricane is about to supply its own blow. Sophie (Amandla Stenberg) is a childhood friend with a similar silver spoon upbringing. She brings her Eastern European partner Bee (Maria Bakalova, recently an Oscar nominee for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) to the rainy day soiree. Others RSVP’d are David’s actress girlfriend Emma (Chase Sui Wonders), podcaster Alice (Rachel Sennott) and her older beau Greg who’s also a vet (Lee Pace), and Jordan (Myha’la Herrold), who may share a romantic past with Sophie.
Previous substance abuse keeps Sophie from partaking in the fun but the others get their buzzkills when murders dampen the festivities. The first body pops up during the title game and more follow. As the count increases, we discover what the screenplay from Sarah DeLappe is really getting at. Even as lives are brutally lost, the partygoers manage to make the bloodshed somehow about them. You suspect that the suspects are mentally taking notes on how they’ll Instagram or Tik Tok the trauma. Let’s call it Keeping Up with the Carnage to bring in a reference to Mr. Davidson’s ex.
Unfortunately the screenplay strains mightily to make them anything more than blank caricatures. Not enough witty lines make the cut. Sennott’s Alice has the most potential. Maybe she should’ve been granted more material. Bakalova, so winning alongside Sacha Baron Cohen, is lost in a bore of a part. There’s a clever if familiar tale trying to break out in Bodies Bodies Bodies. My post mortem concludes that it mostly fails.
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