My deeper dives into big races at the Oscars arrives at Supporting Actress. If you didn’t catch my take on where Supporting Actor, you can access it here:
The Telluride and Venice and ongoing Toronto Film Festivals have helped shed some light on various hopefuls. Penelope Cruz helped herself with the Ferrari bow in Venice. Jodie Comer could be a factor for The Bikeriders (though she could also be campaigned for in lead).
One thing remains the same and has since Cannes. Lily Gladstone’s performance in Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon looks like a serious frontrunner. Obviously this could change as more pictures screen. The Color Purple, for example, has plenty of possibilities (Danielle Brooks, Taraji P. Henson, Halle Bailey).
We have gotten some news during festival season in that Sandra Hüller will be showcased here for The Zone of Interest. However, she’s more likely to make the Actress cut for Anatomy of a Fall.
At this stage of the predicting game, I’m shortening my possible nominees from 15 to 10. Here’s my snapshot of where I believe we are now:
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+2)
It’s been eight long years since Michael Mann has been behind the camera and Ferrari marks his first picture since the 2015 cybercrime flop Blackhat. The Heat maker casts Adam Driver in the 1950s set biopic of Enzo Ferrari and it scored a Venice premiere prior to a Christmas Day theatrical release. Penélope Cruz, Shailene Woodley, Gabriel Leone, Sarah Gadon, Jack O’Connell, and Patrick Dempsey costar.
Early reviews are mostly fresh and it sits at 76% on Rotten Tomatoes. They may not be quite strong enough for it to be a significant awards player. It could sneak into Best Picture depending on competition in the weeks and months ahead. I doubt you’ll see it in my top 10 at my next update on Labor Day. There are openings elsewhere. The Sound (especially), Film Editing, and Cinematography are all possibilities.
I don’t anticipate Driver will be much of a factor in Best Actor. However, Cruz is drawing raves for her work as Enzo’s wife Laura. Neon may have a decision to make whether to campaign for her in lead or supporting (I’m guessing the latter). She could make the cut though competition might be fierce. If she manages a nod, it would mark her fifth after Volver, Vicky Christina Barcelona (for which she won Supporting Actress in 2008), Nine, and Parallel Mothers. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
You could correctly call this Oscar Predictions post the calm before the festival storm as Venice kicks off this week with Telluride and Toronto right behind it. Yet a major development occurred last week as the sands of time are moving slower for Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two. The epic sequel was pushed back to the spring of 2024.
How big of an impact does that make for my forecasts? A heavy one as I had it achieving 11 nominations. In my previous projections on August 16th, that was second only to Oppenheimer‘s 12. I had it ranked 1st in Makeup and Hairstyling and Visual Effects, 2nd in Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound, 3rd in Picture and Director, and 4th for Adapted Screenplay.
In fact, a victory for Dune in Visual Effects was probably the easiest race to call this early (its predecessor won too). Now it makes the VE contest quite interesting. Oppenheimer could take the prize and mark Christopher Nolan’s second win in a row in the category after 2020’s Tenet. It opens the door wider for The Creator from Gareth Edwards. And there’s now more of a shot for the MCU to nab its first statue in VE for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 in particular.
I plan to do my next update on Labor Day (September 4th). By that time, we will have reviews and buzz from Venice premieres including Ferrari, Maestro, Poor Things, Priscilla, and The Killer. We’ll also have the word out for whatever pics debut at Telluride (to be announced Thursday).
Right after that update on the 4th, the rest of the Venice titles and a slew of Toronto movies will be unveiled. They include The Holdovers, Rustin, Dumb Money, Next Goal Wins, Society of the Snow, Origin, Pain Hustlers,Nyad, Lee, American Fiction, The Burial, and Hit Man.
In other words… it’s about to get really interesting, folks! I’m also dropping some titles that I’m just not sure are actually releasing in 2023 like The Piano Lesson. Obviously, it will re-enter the dance if there’s confirmation on a release this year. Questions persist about other ones. Is Long Day’s Journey Into Night happening before December 31st? Is Shirley or Freud’s Last Session? Will other currently scheduled releases pull a Dune? The answer is likely affirmative.
With the Dune shift, Air moves back into my BP 10 and Bradley Cooper (Maestro) is in Director over Denis Villeneuve. In non-Dune related shifts, Sandra Huller is now #1 in Actress over The Color Purple‘s Fantasia Barrino. Charles Melton from May December hits my Supporting Actor five over Willem Dafoe (Poor Things).
You can read all the movement below and my next update with the Venice buzz arrives in a week!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Maestro (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Poor Things (PR: 9) (E)
10. Air (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Saltburn (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Napoleon (PR: 14) (E)
15. Ferrari (PR: 16) (+1)
16. The Killer (PR: 17) (+1)
17. May December (PR: 20) (+3)
18. Asteroid City (PR: 18) (E)
19. One Life (PR: 21) (+2)
20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 19) (-1)
21. Rustin (PR: 24) (+3)
22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (E)
23. Dumb Money (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Book of Clarence (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
The Piano Lesson
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)
7. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Michael Mann, Ferrari (PR: 15) (+2)
14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)
15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 10) (E)
11. Caille Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 11) (E)
12. Aunjanue Ellis, Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Saoirse Ronan, Foe (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Helen Mirren, Golda
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (E)
5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (E)
10. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (E)
12. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 12) (-1)
14. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 8) (E)
9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 10) (E)
11. Helena Bonham-Carter, One Life (PR: 11) (E)
12. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Niecy Nash-Betts, Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Air (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Saltburn (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. May December (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fair Play (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)
11. Napoleon (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)
15. A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)
8. One Life (PR: 9) (+1)
9. BlackBerry (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (E)
13. Dumb Money (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Killer (PR: 15) (+1)
15. All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
The Piano Lesson
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)
3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Taste of Things (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Monster (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)
9. La Chimera (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
El Conde
The Delinquents
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
9. Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia (PR: 9) (E)
10. They Shot the Piano Player (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)
2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)
3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)
4. Every Body (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 6) (E)
7. Orlando, A Political Biography (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Wild Life (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Deepest Breath (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Black Ice
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Poor Things (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Napoleon (PR: 5) (+2)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)
5. Chevalier (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (E)
8. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Priscilla (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Air (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Killer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ferrari (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Barbie (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Golda (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked
10. Beau is Afraid (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Wonka
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Elemental (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Killer (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+4)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)
10. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Poor Things
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (E)
4. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities
6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Napoleon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ferrari (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Barbie
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Creator (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Rebel Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wonka (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Little Mermaid (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Killers of the Flower Moon
Blue Beetle
That means I’m predicting the following numbers of nominations for these pictures:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
8 Nominations
Barbie, Maestro
7 Nominations
The Color Purple, Past Lives, Poor Things
5 Nominations
Napoleon
4 Nominations
Air, Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest
2 Nominations
Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Rustin, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
About Dry Grasses, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Every Body, The Killer, May December,Monster, Nimona, Rebel Moon, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, 20 Days in Mariupol
It’s looking like Netflix is going all in on Bradley Cooper’s Maestro being their main contender for awards love in 2023. With its first trailer out this week, the biopic is the biggest riser in Best Picture. Additionally, Carey Mulligan joins the Best Actress field with Annette Bening (Nyad) falling out.
Supporting Actress also sees a change as Viola Davis (Air) is back in over Rosamud Pike for Saltburn. It’s not a good update for Emerald Fennell’s sophomore feature as it also drops from BP with Poor Things returning.
In another significant development, Cillian Murphy’s work in Oppenheimer rises to #1 in Best Actor for the first time over Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon).
You can expect one more update at month’s end before the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto festivals arrive and dramatically reshape the race. That’s where we’ll catch our first glimpses and see first reactions to many contenders. They include Maestro, Poor Things, Rustin, The Killer, Ferrari, Priscilla, El Conde, Dumb Money, Nyad, Lee, One Life, Next Goal Wins, and more.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Maestro (PR: 8) (+3)
6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Barbie (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Saltburn (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Air (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)
14. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Ferrari (PR: 18) (+2)
17. The Killer (PR: 16) (-1)
18. Asteroid City (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Next Goal Wins (PR: 20) (+1)
20. May December (PR: 17) (-3)
21. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)
22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 23) (+1)
23. The Piano Lesson (PR: 22) (-1)
24. Rustin (PR: 21) (-3)
25. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bob Marley: One Love
Priscilla
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 8) (E)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (E)
13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)
14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)
15. Michael Mann, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wes Anderson, Asteroid City
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (E)
13. Saoirse Ronan, Foe (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 14) (E)
15. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Emily Blunt, Pain Hustlers
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (E)
5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: 10) (E)
11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 13) (E)
14. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 8) (E)
9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Helena Bonham Carter, One Life (PR: 13) (+2)
1.2 Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12 ) (-1)
14. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Audra McDonald, Rustin
America Ferrera, Barbie
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)
7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)
8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (E)
9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Glynn Turman, Rustin
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Saltburn (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Maestro (PR: 7) (+3)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fair Play (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Rustin (PR: 10 (E)
11. Napoleon (PR: 9) (-2)
12. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 15) (+3)
13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 11) (-2)
14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)
15. A Thousand and One (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bob Marley: One Love
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-3)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. BlackBerry (PR: 10) (+2)
9. One Life (PR: 14) (+5)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Next Goal Wins (PR: 9) (-2)
12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)
14. The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Killer (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Ferrari
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)
3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (E)
4. Monster (PR: 4) (E)
5.The Taste of Things (formerly The Pot-Au-Feu) (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (E)
7. Fallen Leaves (PR: 8) (+1)
8. El Conde (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Delinquents (PR: 9) (E)
10. La Chimera (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
9. Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)
2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)
3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Every Body (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Deepest Breath (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wild Life (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Black Ice (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Kokomo City
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maestro (PR: 10) (+6)
5. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Poor Things (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Killer (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Ferrari (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)
5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Chevalier (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Priscilla (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maestro (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Air (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Ferrari (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Killer (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Glaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Priscilla (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barbie (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Golda (PR: 8) (E)
9. Beau is Afraid (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Color Purple
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elemental (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Napoleon
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (+5)
5. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
TBD from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)
7. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Maestro (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+6)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Zone of Interest
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Creator (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (E)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wonka (PR: 8) (E)
9. Blue Beetle (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Barbie
That means I’m projecting these numbers of nominations for these films:
12 Nominations
Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
10 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
7 Nominations
Barbie, Maestro
6 Nominations
The Color Purple, Past Lives, Poor Things
5 Nominations
The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon
2 Nominations
Air, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, About Dry Grasses, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Every Body, Ferrari, May December, Monster, Priscilla, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Earlier this summer, I completed a blog series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 for the past couple of years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned 14 posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them!
Beginning today… my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there were always five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.
This series will project the other five that I believe would’ve gotten in beginning in 2008. In fact, it’s because of that year’s biggest grosser not being included that may have prompted the Academy to expand again in the first place. We’ll get there in just a minute.
We do, of course, know five of the ten and that would be the ones that were nominated. Danny Boyle’s Slumdog Millionaire dominated the ceremony with ten nods and an impressive eight victories in Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song, and Sound Mixing.
David Fincher’s The Curious Case of Benjamin Button received the most overall mentions with 13 and took home 3 (Art Direction, Makeup, Visual Effects).
Our other trio of contenders were Ron Howard’s Frost/Nixon (o for 5 in nominations), Gus Van Sant’s Milk (8 nods with Sean Penn winning Actor as well as an Original Screenplay statue), and Stephen Daldry’s The Reader (5 nominations with Kate Winslet taking Actress).
The 81st Academy Awards were a rare year when the five Picture hopefuls matched the five filmmakers nominated in Best Director. In other words, there are no clues there for additional BP pics for the purposes of this post.
Yet for the ones that could’ve made the dance in an expanded lineup, we do begin with 2008’s largest moneymaker and that’s Christopher Nolan’s The Dark Knight. It did manage to score 8 mentions with Heath Ledger winning a posthumous Supporting Actor prize (in addition to Sound Editing gold). The fact that it didn’t break into BP was heavily criticized online and elsewhere. If there had been 10 pics up, that almost certainly wouldn’t have been the case.
I would say the same for Pixar’s Wall-E. When it went to 10 movies in 2009 and 2010, the studio’s Up and Toy Story 3 were in. The robotic adventure was the victor in Animated Feature and was nominated in five more races in Original Screenplay, Original Score, Original Song, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing. Like Knight, Wall-E is an easy pick.
For the 8th spot, I’m fairly confident in Doubt. John Patrick Shanley’s drama (based on his Pulitzer Prize winning play) saw four of its actors nominated and was up for Adapted Screenplay. That combo is enough to assume inclusion.
Then it gets complicated for the 9th and 10th slots and there’s a few possibilities to ponder. Darren Aronofsky’s The Wrestler saw Mickey Rourke and Marisa Tomei up, but a screenplay miss makes me skeptical. Clint Eastwood’s Changeling had three noms (including Angelina Jolie in Actress), but drew mixed reviews. Woody Allen’s Vicky Christina Barcelona, despite taking the Golden Globe in Musical/Comedy, was only nominated for Penelope Cruz’s supporting turn (for which she won). Martin McDonagh’s In Bruges and Mike Leigh’s Happy-Go-Lucky were both up for Original Screenplay and that race alone. There’s usually one or two screenplay nominees that are only up for that category. Iron Man was a gigantic hit which kicked off the MCU. I doubt the Academy would have honored two comic book adaptations. The Duchess won Costume Design and was nominated for its Art Direction. It also was greeted with a mixed critical response.
All of those titles, to one degree or another, are worthy of consideration for the last two spots. I’m going with an indie selection in Courtney Hunt’s Frozen River which was nominated for Actress (Melissa Leo) and Original Screenplay. Let’s call it 2008’s Winter’s Bone (which would make the 2010 BP ten).
Lastly, I’m naming Revolutionary Road from Sam Mendes. Despite it missing noms for stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet, it received a Golden Globe nod in Drama and three Academy mentions for Supporting Actor (Michael Shannon), Art Direction, and Costume Design. That might have been just enough for #10.
So there you have it! That means my 2008 Best Picture expanded to ten is:
We have reached Best Actress in my deep dives of the major Oscar races. If you didn’t catch my takes on the supporting derbies and lead actor, you can access them here:
Before we get to this very competitive Actress competition, let’s see how I did at this point in the calendar from 2019-21. Three years ago, I managed to identify all 5 eventual nominees – winner Renee Zellweger (Judy), Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), and Charlize Theron (Bombshell). For the late October/early November frame in 2020 and 2021, I correctly called 3 of the 5. In 2020, that was Frances McDormand (Nomadland), who won her third Oscar along with Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) and Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman). Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) and Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) were mentioned in Other Possibilities. The victor was also named last year with Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye as well as Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) and Kristen Stewart (Spencer). Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) and Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) were in Other Possibilities.
So if the last three years are any precursor, you should find the eventual quintet in my ten picks! Frances McDormand could have company with performers sporting a trio of gold statues. A Supporting Actress winner in 2004 for The Aviator and lead actress recipient for 2013’s Blue Jasmine, Cate Blanchett is drawing some career best kudos for Tár. She’s been in my #1 spot for weeks and if she wins, she’d join McDormand, Katherine Hepburn, and Ingrid Bergman as the only actresses to win more than two Oscars.
Her main competition could come from several performers. Michelle Yeoh is receiving a massive push for Everything Everywhere All at Once, which is a threat to win numerous big races including Best Picture. There’s another Michelle and it’s a surprise… Michelle Williams. As I discussed in my Supporting Actress write-up, her performance in The Fabelmans would likely be a guaranteed winner in that category. With the more competitive vibe of lead actress, it’s not even a guarantee that she makes it in.
While Till may struggle to get recognition elsewhere despite strong reviews and an A+ Cinemascore, Danielle Deadwyler looks pretty strong to make the cut. On the other hand, so-so critical reaction could prevent Olivia Colman (Empire of Light) from getting her fourth nod in five years.
There are two performances yet to be seen that could both make a splash: Margot Robbie for Babylon and Naomi Ackie as Whitney Houston in I Wanna Dance with Somebody. It’s easy to envision either rising up if the reactions are positive enough.
Despite solid box office, Viola Davis could face an uphill battle for The Woman King. That narrative could change if both Robbie and Ackie falter. Some intensely negative audience and critical buzz for Blonde may leave Ana de Armas out. And there’s always potential dark horses. Emma Thompson will probably get a Golden Globes nom for Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, but Academy inclusion could be a reach. Women Talking‘s Rooney Mara might be ignored in favor of her supporting costars like Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley. Causeway may not draw enough attention for Jennifer Lawrence to make it and the same holds true for The Wonder‘s Florence Pugh. Decision to Leave (despite having a chance to take International Feature Film) may not see its cast be a factor. That would leave out Tang Wei.
If there’s an actress out there who I would say has almost quietly received four Oscar nominations, it’s Penelope Cruz. She won Supporting Actress in 2008 for Vicky Christina Barcelona, but was nominated the following year in that race for Nine. That’s in addition to two lead nods for 2006’s Volver and last year’s Parallel Mothers.
At the Venice Film Festival, the quadruple contender stars in L’Immensita. The Italian family drama finds Cruz playing the mother of a boy (Luana Giuliani) grappling with gender identity. With her character experiencing mental health issues, this is said to be a juicy role for Emanuele Crialese’s effort.
There’s not many reviews out yet, but the handful of them available has its Rotten Tomatoes score at 100%. It will be interesting to see if Italy selects this as their International Feature Film designee. The Eight Mountains (which premiered at Cannes over the summer) is another possibility. The nation has had two films in the IFF derby over the past decade: 2013’s The Great Beauty (which won) and last year’s The Hand of God. If L’Immensita is the pick, the early word-of-mouth suggests it could make the eventual shortlist. Could Cruz be in the mix for a fifth nod? That’s doubtful though she was able to pull off that Parallel Mothers mention in a crowded 2021 Best Actress field. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
And it’s come to this! After seven months of endless speculation, predictions, and posts – the 94th Academy Awards (with your hosts Wanda Sykes, Amy Schumer, and Regina Hall) airs this Sunday evening.
These are my final picks for the races covering feature films. Will the Best Picture be CODA?
Or The Power of the Dog?
We have ourselves some real intrigue as both are strong possibilities. Either way, a steamer (either Netflix or Apple TV) should pick up its inaugural Best Pic victory.
Will there be upsets in any of the acting derbies where there seems to be a consensus four based on precursors? And just what will occur in the screenplay races which look unpredictable?
For each race, I’ll give you a bit of commentary along with my projected victor and the runner-up.
Let’s get to it! On Sunday evening, you will see a recap with how I performed…
Best Picture
Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Commentary:
Well, the big daddy of them all has certainly become fascinating. CODA, the little Sundance pic that could, has surged in the past few days. In addition to winning the SAG Ensemble prize, it captured the Producers Guild top honor and was a BAFTA selection for Adapted Screenplay. These designations (PGA especially) are significant precursors. A strong argument could be made that it has the momentum as voting closed yesterday. In fact, I’ve seen more prognosticators picking it this week than not…
However, The Power of the Dog is still quite viable. It took the Golden Globe Best Drama trophy as well as Critics Choice and BAFTA. Until CODA‘s rise, it was the heavy favorite.
We’ve got a real coin flip, folks! That definitely makes the end of Oscar night more suspenseful than last year when Nomadland seemed unbeatable and indeed was.
I don’t believe any of the other eight pictures have a chance. As for the two that do, I’ve gone back and forth constantly all week. There’s a time to stop speculating and make a final pick and I still believe there’s enough power for the Dog to edge out CODA. That said, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if it turns out the other way.
PREDICTED WINNER:
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
CODA
Best Director
Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Commentary:
This is far easier than Picture. With CODA maker Sian Heder absent, Jane Campion is in line to become the third female (and second in a row) to make a podium trip. She’s won all the key precursors – DGA, Globes, Critics Choice. It’s even a challenge to name a runner-up (I guess I’ll say Spielberg because he’s Spielberg). Make no mistake – this is one of the simplest checkmarks on the ballot.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Best Actress
Nominees:
Jessicas Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Commentary:
Kidman garnered the initial heat after a surprise Globe win, but that’s stalled as no other awards programs followed suit. Instead it’s been Chastain on the minor streak with SAG and Critics Choice. If there’s an upset in any acting derby, this is probably where it happens. Stewart’s road to Oscar looked shaky after some snubs. Academy voters could reward her and there’s some chatter about Cruz being viable. Yet I’m sticking with the safest best and that’s Chastain taking her first gold.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Riunner-Up:
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Best Actor
Nominees:
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Commentary:
During the fall, I was thinking there could be a barnburner between Smith and Cumberbatch (with Garfield as potential spoiler). That’s not how it’s played out as the Fresh Prince has been crowned the king in all preceding shows. I expect the sweep to continue.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Will Smith, King Richard
Runner-Up:
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Commentary:
Buckley and Dench were surprising inclusions, but there won’t be any shocks with the winner. DeBose has run the table and she should represent Story‘s lone victory.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Runner-Up:
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Commentary:
Despite its quartet of performers getting nominations, Dog is likely to produce Oscars for none of them. Smit-McPhee received the Golden Globe but it’s been all Kotsur since. This is the race where I’m most confident of a CODA moment.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Runner-Up:
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Worst Person in the World
Commentary:
Good luck with this one! The Writer’s Guild threw everyone for a loop last weekend when Don’t Look Up won over Licorice Pizza (Belfast was not eligible). I just don’t envision the Academy honoring Up. With a Belfast or Pizza victory, they would bestowing first ever Oscars to Kenneth Branagh and Paul Thomas Anderson respectively. With the Globe and Critics Choice going to Belfast, it has my vote (though it’s close).
PREDICTED WINNER:
Belfast
Runner-Up:
Licorice Pizza
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
Commentary:
CODA‘s BAFTA win kickstarted its momentum. Even if Dog is Best Picture, CODA could still take this. On the other hand, I think there’s a better chance Best Pic and Adapted Screenplay match so I’m rolling with the Dog with no degree of confidence whatsoever.
PREDICTED WINNER:
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
CODA
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Commentary:
I’m tempted to pick a Mitchells upset, but it’s dangerous to pick against Disney and Encanto is the frontrunner.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Encanto
Runner-Up:
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Best International Feature Film
Nominees:
Drive My Car
Flee
The Hand of God
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
The Worst Person in the World
Commentary:
This is unquestionably one of the no brainer picks as Drive My Car has dominated the precursors and is the only nominee to also nab a Best Picture nod.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Drive My Car
Runner-Up:
The Worst Person in the World
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees:
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul
Writing with Fire
Commentary:
With nominations in Animated Feature, International Feature, and Doc – it sure seems like Flee should win one of them. It might stand the best chance in this competition, but Summer of Soul has been impressive in precursors and should continue the streak.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Summer of Soul
Runner-Up:
Flee
Best Cinematography
Nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Commentary:
This might be the tech race where Dog is successful. I’m not predicting it though and (get used to hearing this) think Dune emerges.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Dune
Runner-Up:
The Power of the Dog
Best Costume Design
Nominees:
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Commentary:
Cruella has killed it the preceding competitions. Dune, if it crushes all techs, could take it but I’m going with the former.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Cruella
Runner-Up:
Dune
Best Film Editing
Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
tick, tick… Boom!
Commentary:
Don’t sleep on King Richard which was bestowed the EDDIE award. I still think this is Dune‘s to lose.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Dune
Runner-Up:
King Richard
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees:
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Commentary:
Gucci could fashion a 1 for 1 victory but Tammy Faye has taken some precursors.
PREDICTED WINNER:
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Runner-Up:
House of Gucci
Best Original Score
Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Encanto
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
Commentary:
Like Cinematography, this is between Dog and Dune. Like Cinematography, I’m choosing the latter.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Dune
Runner-Up:
The Power of the Dog
Best Original Song
Nominees:
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days
Commentary:
Diane Warren gets her 13th nomination with “Somehow” and somehow she’s never won. That will continue. The smart money is on the 007 theme song from Billie Eilish. Yet I’m going with a minor upset with the Disney tune.
PREDICTED WINNER:
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
Runner-Up:
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
Best Production Design
Nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Commentary:
For the last three categories, I could just say Dune and be done with it. In fact, I think I will…
PREDICTED WINNER:
Dune
Runner-Up:
West Side Story
Best Sound
Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Commentary:
See Production Design
PREDICTED WINNER:
Dune
Runner-Up:
West Side Story
Best Visual Effects
Nominees:
Dune
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Commentary:
See Production Design
PREDICTED WINNER:
Dune
Runner-Up:
There isn’t one… that’s how I’m confident I am that Dune takes it.
And so, ladies and gents, that means I’m predicting that these movies win these numbers of Oscars:
6 Wins
Dune
3 Wins
The Power of the Dog
2 Wins
Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
1 Win
Belfast, CODA, Cruella, Drive My Car, King Richard, Summer of Soul, West Side Story
Penelope Cruz’s performance in Parallel Mothers is the third Best Actress entry in my Case Of posts. If you missed the ones covering the other C’s (Jessica Chastain and Olivia Colman), they’re here:
More than any other high profile race, Best Actress looks wide open. Spain inexplicably didn’t name Mothers as its International Feature Film selection (it probably would’ve been nominated). Instead it settled for this nod and Original Score. This could provide a way for the Academy to honor it.
The Case Against Penelope Cruz:
If Cruz were to take this, she would do so without mentions from the Globes, SAG, BAFTA, or Critics Choice. That just doesn’t happen.
Previous Nominations: 3
Volver (2006 – Actress); Vicky Christina Barcelona (2008 – Supporting Actress, WON); Nine (2009 – Supporting Actress)
The Verdict:
When Cruz won Supporting Actress 13 years ago for Vicky Christina Barcelona, she was the favorite. For her other two nominations in 2006 and 2009, she was a major long shot. That is once again the case and of the five women up, I believe she’s got the lowest chance to emerge victorious.
My Case Of posts will continue with the third Best Actor competitor – Andrew Garfield in Tick Tick… Boom!
The SAG Awards air this Sunday night and I’m here to give you my take. For some context, I went 4/5 in my projections from 2017-2019 and 3/5 last year. The winners here will certainly help themselves if they’re nominated for Oscars (as you’ll see – not all are).
Let’s get to it!
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
House of Gucci
King Richard
Commentary:
I could offer an argument for anything but Gucci (partly because The Birdcage from 1996 is the only winner that wasn’t nominated for BP at the Oscars). The rest of the pics are BP players with the Academy. Belfast is the most likely to win (notice frontrunner The Power of the Dog isn’t here). Even though I’m not projecting its lone nominee (Balfe) to take the SAG and it was a surprise that Ciaran Hinds didn’t make it, I’ll say the cast is ultimately honored as a whole. CODA is right on its heels.
Predicted Winner: Belfast
Runner-Up: CODA
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Commentary:
Welcome to the confounding world of Best Actress in the 2021 awards season and this is easily the trickiest race to figure out. The Oscar/SAG match is 3/5. Gaga and Hudson didn’t make the Acadeny’s cut in favor of Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) and Kristen Stewart (Spencer).
Let’s start with Gaga. The SAG winner in this race has never not been nominated for an Oscar so the superstar would certainly make history if she takes this. That stat discourages me from calling her name, but who knows? All hopefuls here would be first-time winners in this category (Hudson took Supporting Actress 15 years back in Dreamgirls). She seems least likely to win. So we’re down to Chastain, Colman, and Kidman. All could prevail. Kidman took the Golden Globe and a podium trip could solidify her status as the Oscar frontrunner. Chastain’s showy role could be honored and it’s a bit of a coin flip for me. I’ll give Kidman an ever so slight edge.
Predicted Winner: Nicole Kidman
Runner-Up: Jessica Chastain
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Commentary:
Not complicated like Actress as there’s a 5 for 5 lineup with the Academy’s nominees. Unlike the Oscars, I do buy into the theory that Garfield might be more of a spoiler than Cumberbatch to Smith. The SAG folks could reward Garfield’s showy role. That said, I’m not betting against Smith.
Predicted Winner: Will Smith
Runner-Up: Andrew Garfield
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Ruth Negga, Passing
Commentary:
There’s only a 2 for 5 symmetry with the big show and that’s DeBose and Dunst. Balfe, Blanchett, and Negga are in over Academy picks Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter), Judi Dench (Belfast), and Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard). I do think it’s between the Oscar contestants. Dunst is a threat though I’m going with DeBose sweeping until I see different.
Predicted Winner: Ariana DeBose
Runner-Up: Kirsten Dunst
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Commentary:
Like Supporting Actress, just a 2 for 5 (Kotsur, Smit-McPhee) match. Affleck, Cooper, and Leto got SAG love instead of Oscar selections Ciaran Hinds (Belfast), Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog), and J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos). And I’ll also say it’s between the two Academy players. This is difficult because I could easily see Smit-McPhee sweeping (he won the Globe). Yet I have a sneaking suspicion the thespians may go for Kotsur. With little confidence, I’ll pick that.
Predicted Winner: Troy Kotsur
Runner-Up: Kodi Smit-McPhee
I’ll have reaction up on the ceremony Sunday night!
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