The Room Next Door marks Pedro Almodóvar’s English-language debut after a lengthy and lauded filmography of Spanish language titles. It has premiered at the Venice fest prior to its December 20th awards qualifying stateside bow. Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton, who have won previously Academy Awards for Still Alice and Michael Clayton respectively, headline the drama based on Sigrid Nunez’s 2020 novel. John Turturro and Alessandro Nivola costar.
Almodóvar’s two predecessors earned acting nods for their leads: 2019’s Pain and Glory for Antonio Banderas in Best Actor and 2021’s Parallel Mothers for Penelope Cruz in Actress. With Room, this is said to be a two-hander with Moore likely competing in lead and Swinton in supporting. Early reviews are mostly fine though some are not claiming this is the filmmaker’s most notable efforts. I don’t think Picture or Director are in the cards though Adapted Screenplay could happen.
Moore seems unlikely as Actress could be crowded. It is Swinton who could make a play according to the buzz and I have her right in about the 5-7 slot area of contention. My next update (coming very soon) will work out whether she makes the current cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
And they’re out! After a year of speculation, nominees for the 96th Academy Awards have been released. It was a morning where it felt weird that the 10 Best Picture contenders were relatively easy to project… and that it went according to script. However, the Academy’s picks veered off-script elsewhere as they always do.
I went 84 for 105 overall. Let’s walk through each race one by one with who got in, how I did, and some quick initial thoughts. As I have every year, I will do individual Case Of posts for the hopefuls in Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. That will kick off very soon…
Picture
Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 10/10
Oscar BP matches the PGA ten, as we all suspected. This was, frankly, one of the easiest lineups to project in years. That said, there was a sneaking suspicion that voters would surprise us with a sleeper pick or two. It didn’t materialize and Oppenheimer (leading the charge with 13 noms) is out front.
Director
Nominees: Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
How I Did: 4/5
Triet makes the cut over Greta Gerwig for Barbie. Now would be a good time to mention that Barbie underperformed. It was anticipated to land double digit noms and managed 8. Nolan is the favorite.
Actress
Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
How I Did: 4/5
Bening as Nyad jumps into the Actress pool instead of Margot Robbie as Barbie in another high profile omission for 2023’s biggest blockbuster. This should come down to Gladstone vs. Stone, but I wouldn’t completely discount a Hüller upset.
Actor
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
How I Did: 5/5
Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon seemed to lose steam in the last couple of weeks and that played out as I anticipated. Despite its 10 mentions, Killers had some significant misses this morning. As for those in contention, Giamatti vs. Murphy with Cooper as a potential spoiler.
Supporting Actress
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
How I Did: 3/5
Blunt, Brooks, and Randolph all seemed safe and those last two slots were a bear to figure. Ferrera and Foster are in over Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) and Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), who missed the chance to become the Academy’s 13th double acting nominee. Randolph will be tough to beat.
Supporting Actor
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
How I Did: 5/5
I’ll pat myself on the back for this one since this was arguably as tricky as Supporting Actress. Downey Jr. is in the lead.
Original Screenplay
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives
How I Did: 4/5
Maestro (which had a good morning) over Saltburn (which came up empty-handed). I’d look for Holdovers to take this though Anatomy is a threat.
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 4/5
In one of the more unexpected developments, Killers misses this in favor of Zone. This is a difficult race to project. I would say everything but Zone has a chance.
International Feature Film
Nominees: Io Capitano, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Teachers’ Lounge, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 3/5
Capitano and Lounge instead of Fallen Leaves and Tótem. Since Zone is the sole contender for BP, this is one of the simplest categories to call.
Animated Feature
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
How I Did: 4/5
Dreams over Suzume as the animated race should come down to Heron and Spider-Man.
Documentary Feature
Nominees: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol
How I Did: 3/5
This is always a tricky competition to figure out. Bobi and Tiger make the quintet over Beyond Utopia (a surprising miss) and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie. Projecting the winner is easier as Mariupol is the odds on favorite.
Cinematography
Nominees: El Conde, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 4/5
Conde over Zone of Interest as Oppenheimer looks to emerge.
Costume Design
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 4/5
Napoleon instead of The Color Purple (which can only claim 1 nomination for Supporting Actress). Barbie vs. Poor Things is the contest.
Film Editing
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 4/5
I thought Maestro might make it and left off Poor Things. Worth noting that this is another Barbie miss. Oppenheimer is the one to pick.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: Golda, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow
How I Did: 4/5
I had Killers and not Snow. This category represents Maestro‘s strongest shot at a victory.
Original Score
Nominees: American Fiction, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 3/5
Fiction and Destiny over Society of the Snow and The Zone of Interest. Now would be a good time to mention that Fiction had a nice haul today with 5. This is Oppenheimer‘s to lose.
Original Song
Nominees: “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot, “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony, “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon, “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
How I Did: 4/5
Despite missing Documentary Feature, the tune from American Symphony is nominated over “Road to Freedom” from Rustin. This category may represent Barbie‘s likeliest trophy as it has a double shot. “What Was I Made For?” has the edge. And, of course, “Flamin’ Hot” marks yet another nom for Diane Warren.
Production Design
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 5/5
Another Barbie vs. Poor Things derby.
Sound
Nominees: The Creator, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 3/5
The Creator and Mission are unexpected double nominees. For Sound, they’re in over Ferrari (which was blanked) and Napoleon. This is one of the easiest ones to call… Oppenheimer.
Visual Effects
Nominees: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon
How I Did: 3/5
Unlike Sound, this is one of the hardest categories to project. Mission and Napoleon make the five instead of Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (which was held to just Animated Feature). Maybe The Creator is the pick, but I could easily change my mind.
All this activity means these movies ended up with these numbers of nominations:
13 Nominations
Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Poor Things
10 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
8 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
Maestro
5 Nominations
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest
3 Nominations
Napoleon
2 Nominations
The Creator, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Nyad, Past Lives, Society of the Snow
1 Nomination
American Symphony, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Boy and the Heron, The Color Purple, El Conde, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Io Capitano, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Robot Dreams, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Teachers’ Lounge, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol
Starting about 365 days ago with the Sundance Film Festival, my speculation of the nominees for the 96th Academy Awards kicked off. As it does each year, dozens of predictions posts followed.
And now… after clues from the Golden Globes, SAG, PGA, DGA, Critics Choice, BAFTA, regional critics groups, and good ole fashioned gut feelings, my FINAL projections are here! They will be out Tuesday and I’ll have a recap up that evening.
The speculations ends here. With each race, I’m giving you my selections along with a runner-up and a second runner-up. Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
1st Alternate: The Color Purple
2nd Alternate: Saltburn
Best Director
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
1st Alternate: Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
2nd Alternate: Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Best Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
1st Alternate: Greta Lee, Past Lives
2nd Alternate: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
1st Alternate: Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
2nd Alternate: Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project
Best Cinematography
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
1st Alternate: Barbie
2nd Alternate: El Conde
Best Costume Design
Barbie
The Color Purple
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
1st Alternate: Napoleon
2nd Alternate: Maestro
Best Film Editing
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
1st Alternate: Poor Things
2nd Alternate: Barbie
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Golda
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
1st Alternate: Society of the Snow
2nd Alternate: The Last Voyage of the Demeter
Best Original Score
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
The Zone of Interest
1st Alternate: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2nd Alternate: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Best Original Song
“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot
“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
“Road to Freedom” from Rustin
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon
“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
1st Alternate: “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony
2nd Alternate: “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives
Best Production Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
1st Alternate: The Zone of Interest
2nd Alternate: Asteroid City
Best Sound
Ferrari
Maestro
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
1st Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon
2nd Alternate: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
Best Visual Effects
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1st Alternate: Poor Things
2nd Alternate: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
And that means I’m predicting these movies generate these numbers in terms of nominations:
13 Nominations
Oppenheimer
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
10 Nominations
Poor Things
9 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
Maestro, The Zone of Interest
5 Nominations
The Holdovers
4 Nominations
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall
2 Nominations
The Color Purple, Ferrari, Napoleon, Past Lives, Rustin, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Saltburn, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Suzume, Tótem
Since my last predictions on January 6th, we’ve had a whole lotta activity with Oscar precursors. The Golden Globes aired and bestowed their Best Drama to Oppenheimer and Musical/Comedy to Poor Things (over Barbie). SAG released their nominees with some surprising omissions including Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things), and Charles Melton (May December).
And in perhaps the most unexpected development of all, the PGA Picture nominees included two international features with Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest. PGA typically doesn’t honor foreign pics. The 10 movies they ended up nominating have been my Oscar BP ten for weeks. It’s a little scary to predict that the Academy and PGA will match 10/10… but here we are for now.
In Best Actor, Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) and Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) each rise a spot to 1-2 with Bradley Cooper (Maestro) sliding from first to third. In Supporting Actor, Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) enters the predicted quintet with Charles Melton (May December) on the outs.
An important note: this is my penultimate forecast for the 96th Academy Awards. My plan is to have final predictions up on Friday or Saturday next week before nomination morning on January 23rd.
Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Barbie (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)
6. Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)
7. American Fiction (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (E)
9. Maestro (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Color Purple (PR: 11) (E)
12. May December (PR: 12) (E)
13. Air (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)
15. Saltburn (PR: 13) (-2)
Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (E)
9. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (-1)
Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 9) (E)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (E)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (-1)
Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (E)
7. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 7) (E)
8. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (+1)
9. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-2)
Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)
9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)
Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)
4. May December (PR: 4) (E)
5. Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Iron Claw (PR: 9) (E)
10. Fair Play (PR: 10) (E)
Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. American Fiction (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+1)
7. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Taste of Things (PR: 10) (E)
International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Society of the Snow (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Tótem (PR: 7) (E)
8. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Four Daughters (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Io Capitano (PR: 8) (-2)
Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
5. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Eternal Memory (PR: 5) (-1)
7. American Symphony (PR: 4) (-3)
8. A Still Small Voice (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Bobi Wine: The People’s President (PR: 9) (E)
10. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 8) (-2)
Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR:3) (E)
4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+1)
5. El Conde (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Saltburn (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Napoleon (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ferrari
Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Maestro (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wonka (PR: 8) (E)
9. Priscilla (PR: 9) (E)
10. Chevalier (PR: 10) (E)
Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Air (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Past Lives (PR: 10) (E)
Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Golda (PR: 4) (E)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beau Is Afraid (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Napoleon (PR: 9) (-1)
Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)
7. Elemental (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (E)
10. Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)
Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven)” from Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (-3)
Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Napoleon (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)
Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Ferrari (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Barbie (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)
Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (+3)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Creator (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-2)
That means I’m forecasting these numbers of nominations for these films:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
9 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
The Zone of Interest
5 Nominations
The Holdovers,Maestro
4 Nominations
American Fiction, Past Lives
3 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall
2 Nominations
The Color Purple, May December, Napoleon, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, El Conde, Elemental, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
A major Oscar precursor day kicked off with the Screen Actors Guild nods for the 30th ceremony coming next month. Per usual, the acting branch struck us with some highly expected nominations and a smattering of unexpected inclusions and snubs.
I went for 22 for 30 in my picks. Let’s break down the six races one by one with how I did and some initial analysis, shall we?
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, The Color Purple, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
How I Did: 3/5
A nice morning for American Fiction overall with its 3 nominations and The Color Purple got some sorely needed recognition here. They get in over my calls of Poor Things (which I’m surprised didn’t make it) and Saltburn (which was a bit of a surprise selection on my part).
While Purple‘s inclusion is helpful, there’s usually at least one SAG Ensemble contender that doesn’t get a BP nod from the Academy. Barbie, Killers, and Oppenheimer all appear to be shoo-in nominees and Fiction is looking safer by the day…
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in Leading Role
Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
The actors branch often go with known names over relatively unknown ones and that’s why I had Bening over Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall) or Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla). This is where Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) could’ve moved up as far as viability, but it didn’t materialize. This should be a showdown between Gladstone and Stone.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in Leading Role
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
How I Did: 4/5
Domingo making the quintet is not a shocker by any stretch. Yet I am a bit taken aback that SAG didn’t nominate Leonardo DiCaprio for Killers of the Flower Moon (so much for them always going with the big names). This might be where Cooper needs to show he’s a threat to win. Otherwise it’s Murphy or Giamatti unless Wright can score an upset.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Penelope Cruz (Ferrari), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
How I Did: 4/5
Cruz is in over my Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) pick. The other four seemed likely contenders and the five spot was wide open. Others who could’ve helped themselves today include Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret), Julianne Moore (May December), and America Ferrera (Barbie). Randolph is considered the frontrunner to potentially sweep the season. I will note that SAG seems to adore Blunt (she scored an upset victory here in 2018 for A Quiet Place).
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
How I Did: 3/5
This could turn out to the most fascinating acting derby of the season. It certainly was this morning. Brown and De Niro are named over Charles Melton (May December) and Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things). Seeing Dafoe be the sole Things nominee instead of Ruffalo is unexpected. So is Melton missing and we now have to consider whether he’s strong or not for the Oscar quintet. Basically we have seven legit contenders vying for five slots. As far as a winner with SAG, Gosling will try to show he’s a competitor to the slightly favored Downey Jr.
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Barbie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, John Wick Chapter 4, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
How I Did: 3/5
This sequel heavy lineup sees Barbie (?) and Guardians in over The Creator and Ferrari. I’ll make a bold prediction that a sequel wins… and it’s probably Wick or Mission.
You can expect my final SAG winner predictions shortly before its February 24th airdate!
We are 17 days out from Oscar nominations being revealed and a flurry of activity is ahead of us. The Golden Globes air Sunday evening and SAG nods come out on Wednesday. The BAFTA long lists were unveiled yesterday and critics groups continue to bestow their honors. Those events (specifically the Globes and SAG) could alter my thinking in the very near future.
As for these first forecasts of the fresh new year, the big news of the past few days was the announcement that Barbie will contend in Adapted Screenplay and not Original. That means I’ve shifted Greta Gerwig’s blockbuster from #1 in its former race to the top spot in its new one. That drops All of Us Strangers from the adapted field and allows Air to enter the high five for original.
You won’t find a whole lot of changes in the main categories. I will note that Barbie is now sitting in the #2 slot in BP with Killers of the Flower Moon sliding to third. In Supporting Actress, the fifth position (which seems wide open) goes to Sandra Hüller in The Zone of Interest. That makes her a double nominee and puts my former pick of Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret) on the outside looking in.
You can peruse all the movement below! Keep an eye on the blog this week for reaction to the Globes, SAG nods, and any other noteworthy activity.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: Even)
2. Barbie (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)
6. Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)
7. Maestro (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (E)
9. American Fiction (PR: 9) (E)
10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Color Purple (PR: 11) (E)
12. May December (PR: 12) (E)
13. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Air (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Society of the Snow
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)
7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (E)
9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
J.A. Bayona, Society of the Snow
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (E)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (E)
7. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (-4)
10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)
9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Past Lives (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)
4. May December (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Air (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Saltburn (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Iron Claw (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Fair Play (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Barbie (moved to Adapted Screenplay)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Original Screenplay)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 2) (-2)
5. American Fiction (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Taste of Things (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Color Purple
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Society of the Snow (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Perfect Days (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Tótem (PR: 7) (E)
8. Io Capitano (PR: 9) (+1)
9. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Four Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Godland
The Monk and the Gun
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
9. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Robot Dreams
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 1) (E)
2. Beyond Utopia (PR: 2) (E)
3. Four Daughters (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Symphony (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: 7) (E)
8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Bobi Wire: The People’s President (PR: 9) (E)
10. A Still Small Voice (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saltburn (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. Barbie (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
El Conde
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+3)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wonka (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Chevalier (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Asteroid City
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Air (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Maestro (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Past Lives (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Golda (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: 7) (E)
8. Beau is Afraid (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ferrari (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)
7. Elemental (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Barbie (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
American Fiction
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: A Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (+2)
8. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-4)
9. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Dear Alien (Who Art In Heaven)” from Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Maestro (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ferrari (PR: 3) (E)
4. Napoleon (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Barbie (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Killer (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Creator (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Napoleon (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 8) (-2)
That means I’m currently projecting these movies generate these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Oppenheimer, Poor Things
11 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
9 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
Maestro, The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers
3 Nominations
American Fiction, May December, Past Lives, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2 Nominations
American Symphony, The Color Purple, Napoleon, Society of the Snow
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rustin, Suzume, The Taste of Things
After their long strike that dominated entertainment news headlines in 2023, the 30th Screen Actors Guild Awards stream via Netflix (slightly ironic) on February 24th. Nominations in the six cinematic races are revealed this Wednesday, January 10th.
Readers of the blog are aware that I spend thousands of words and dozens of posts speculating on the Oscars. For the SAG Awards, it’s just this write-up. I’ll go through the sextet with brief commentary, my quintet of selections, and an alternate pick.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Predicted Nominees:
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Saltburn
Alternate:
American Fiction
In recent years, there are sometimes 3 of 5 SAG Ensemble nominees that make the dance at the Oscars. More often it is 4 out of 5 and that’s where I see Barbie, Killers, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things (all highly likely BP contenders) making the cut. I’m leaning toward Saltburn over Air, The Color Purple (which has been fading and could use a boost with this), The Holdovers, and my alternate American Fiction in the five spot.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Predicted Nominees:
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Alternate:
Greta Lee, Past Lives
The SAG voters often go with more recognizable faces than the Academy does. That’s why you see Bening and Robbie over Greta Lee or Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall).
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Predicted Nominees:
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Alternate:
Colman Domingo, Rustin
I wanted to go with Domingo or even Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers) or Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), but I ultimately couldn’t take out any of the five thespians that I currently have as the Academy’s nominees. If anyone is vulnerable, it’s probably Wright or DiCaprio.
Outstanding Performance in a Supporting Role by a Female Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Alternate:
Julianne Moore, May December
This race could be quite interesting. In addition to the six performers above, I was tempted to select Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret), Viola Davis (Air), or Penelope Cruz (Ferrari). Ultimately my somewhat surprise pick is Pike, even though she also nabbed a Globe mention. I also have a weird suspicion that Brooks might be snubbed, but I’m keeping her in.
Outstanding Performance in a Supporting Role by a Male Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Charles Melton, May December
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Alternate:
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
I’m selecting Dafoe over De Niro in a close call and don’t discount Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction). Anyone beyond those seven actors would be an unexpected party crasher.
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Predicted Nominees:
The Creator
Ferrari
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
John Wick: Chapter 4
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Alternate:
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Feels weird not to have a comic book movie predicted, but it was a pretty weak for that genre. Somehow Mr. Wick’s headshots have never been recognized in this race and perhaps that changes here.
That means I’m projecting the following numbers in nominations for these pictures:
4 Nominations
Oppenheimer, Poor Things
3 Nominations
Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon
2 Nominations
The Holdovers, Maestro, Nyad, Saltburn
1 Nomination
American Fiction, The Color Purple, The Creator, Ferrari, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, John Wick: Chapter 4, May December, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
My first post Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards nominations Oscar forecast doesn’t see any changes in Best Picture and I find myself stuck in the same conundrum. There are 11 films I believe will get nominated and ten spots. Until the Critics Choice nods, I thought The Color Purple might be dead in the water. However, its CCA inclusion keeps it in the mix after its surprise snub at the Globes. I still have it clinging to a nomination over Anatomy of a Fall.
In Best Actor, I’m putting Colman Domingo (Rustin) back in over Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction). Yet it’s a coin flip right now and I agree that Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon, currently my 4) could also find himself on the outside looking in.
Julianne Moore is in the Best Supporting Actress quintet for May December. It’s the first time she’s above the line and I’ve taken out Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) to make that room. Also in this race, there’s a new #1 as Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) just keeps collecting critics prize. She tops the list and drops my longtime #1 Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) to second.
You can read all the movement below as I now have Oppenheimer, Killers, and Poor Things all receiving a dozen mentions with Barbie close behind at 11!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)
8. American Fiction (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (E)
12. May December (PR: 12) (E)
13. Air (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Iron Claw
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)
8. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-3)
8. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Juliette Binoche, The Taste of Things (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Penelope Cruz, Ferrari
Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 10) (+3)
8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)
9. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 7) (E)
8. Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fair Play
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Taste of Things (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (-2)
7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tótem (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Io Capitano (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Promised Land (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
20 Days in Mariupol
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elemental (PR: 6) (E)
7. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (E)
8. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-4)
9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Killer
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 6) (+3)
4. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 10) (+3)
8. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “A World Of Your Own” from Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
“Dance the Night” from Barbie
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Wonka (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ferrari (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)
7. Society of the Snow (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire
Killers of the Flower Moon
That equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
11 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
Maestro
6 Nominations
The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
The Color Purple, The Holdovers
3 Nominations
May December
2 Nominations
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Past Lives, Rustin, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Asteroid City, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, The Mother of All Lies, Nimona, Perfect Days, The Taste of Things, Wonka
Michael Mann’s first feature in nearly a decade zooms into multiplexes on Christmas Day with Ferrari. Adam Driver plays the automative entrepreneur with a supporting cast including Penélope Cruz, Shailene Woodley, Sarah Gadon, Gabriel Leone, Jack O’Connell, and Patrick Dempsey.
The Neon release (with a budget reportedly approaching $100 million) premiered at the Venice Film Festival early in the fall. Buzz was pretty decent (it’s at 75% on RT), but it hasn’t managed to become a serious awards contender. That kind of chatter could help its numbers. Yet it didn’t materialize.
My suspicion is that Ferrari will fail to make a significant dent in the holiday box office. Competition is fierce and this could get lost in the shuffle. Since it is out on Christmas Day (falling on Monday), this estimate is for that date only.
Ferrari opening day prediction: $2.1 million (Christmas Day estimate only)
For my Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom prediction, click here:
The Critics’ Choice Awards are one of the more reliable precursors when it comes to movies and actors who might receive Oscar nominations. Hopefuls will hear their names called tomorrow for the 29th annual ceremony.
This show can sometimes be unpredictable with how many nominees there will be in each race. Last year there were 11 in Picture, 10 in Director, and 6 for others. I’ll project 10 in Pic and Director and go with six in the remainder of the derbies (and an alternate), but don’t be surprised if they alter the formula.
Let’s get to it!
Picture
American Fiction
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
May December
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternate: The Color Purple
Director
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Todd Haynes, May December
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Celine Song, Past Lives
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Alternate: Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Alternate: Natalie Portman, May December
Actor
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Alternate: Colman Domingo, Rustin
Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Penelope Cruz, Ferrari
Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Julianne Moore, May December
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Alternate: Jodie Foster, Nyad
Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Charles Melton, May December
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Alternate: John Magaro, Past Lives
Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
May December
Past Lives
Saltburn
Alternate: Maestro
Adapted Screenplay
All of Us Strangers
American Fiction
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternate: The Zone of Interest
Foreign Language Film
Anatomy of a Fall
Monster
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Taste of Things
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: Fallen Leaves
Animated Feature
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Alternate: Wish
Cinematography
The Killer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Saltburn
Alternate: The Zone of Interest
Costume Design
Barbie
Chevalier
The Color Purple
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
Priscilla
Alternate: Oppenheimer
Editing
Anatomy of a Fall
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
Alternate: The Holdovers
Makeup
Barbie
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Maestro
Nyad
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
Alternate: Oppenheimer
Production Design
Asteroid City
Barbie
The Color Purple
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Alternate: Maestro
Score
Elemental
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternate: The Boy and the Heron
Song
“Dance the Night” from Barbie
“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
“Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives
“Road to Freedom” from Rustin
“This Wish” from Wish
“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Alternate: “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Visual Effects
The Creator
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Alternate: Napoleon
Ensemble
Air
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Saltburn
Alternate: The Color Purple
Comedy
American Fiction
Asteroid City
Barbie
Joy Ride
The Holdovers
No Hard Feelings
Alternate: Bottoms
Young Actor/Actress
Joe Bird, Talk to Me
Andrew Barth Feldman, No Hard Feelings
Abby Ryder Fortson, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Ariana Greenblatt, Barbie
Milo Machado-Graner, Anatomy of a Fall
Violet McGraw, M3GAN
Alternate: Iman Vellani, The Marvels
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
Barbie, Poor Things
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
7 Nominations
Maestro, Past Lives
6 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers
5 Nominations
May December
4 Nominations
American Fiction, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
3 Nominations
The Color Purple, Saltburn
2 Nominations
All of Us Strangers, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Asteroid City, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, No Hard Feelings, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest
1 Nomination
Air, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, Ferrari, Godzilla Minus One, Joy Ride, The Killer, M3GAN, Monster, Nimona, Nyad, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Robot Dreams, Rustin, Talk to Me, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Wish
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