As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. The final director for consideration is Chloé Zhao for Hamnet. If you missed my previous posts on the filmmakers in the mix, you can access them here:
For the tearjerking historical drama, she could make history by becoming the first female to win this twice (only two others have taken the gold). Hamnet is the Golden Globe winner for Best Drama. Zhao was nominated everywhere that matters, however…
The Case Against Chloé Zhao:
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) has taken all notable precursors – Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and the highly predictive DGA. Ryan Coogler (Sinners) has emerged as the competition if Sinners manages a mild BP upset.
The Verdict:
Zhao is not going to achieve filmmaking Oscar #2 though she’s likely to have directed another Best Actress winner via Jessie Buckley with Frances McDormand in Nomadland being the first.
And that concludes for Case Of write-ups for the 98th Academy Awards! FINAL predictions on the winners will be up on the blog in short order…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our final entrant among the Supporting Actress nominees is Teyana Taylor in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. If you missed the previous posts in this race, you can access them here:
The multi-faceted entertainer received raves as revolutionary Perfidia Beverly Hills in the potential BP winner. Taylor has been nominated in all key precursors and was victorious at the Golden Globes. That race has matched the Oscars in Supporting Actress for seven out of the past ten years. She joins costars Leonardo DiCaprio, Benicio del Toro, and Sean Penn in vying for attention. While her screen time is limited, Taylor’s presence is felt throughout the film.
The Case Against Teyana Taylor:
Any momentum has been stalled since the Globes. Amy Madigan (Weapons) took Critics Choice and SAG Actor while Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) is the BAFTA recipient. Sean Penn has arguably emerged as the thespian most likely to take gold for PTA’s latest.
The Verdict:
Supporting Actress has no clear frontrunner. If Battle is your BP and Director victor, that increases the chances for Taylor to make a podium trip. There’s also no doubt that Madigan and Mosaku have strong cases.
My Case Of posts will continue with the final hopeful in Supporting Actor and that’s Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. The fourth director for consideration is Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value. If you missed my previous posts on the filmmakers in the mix, you can access them here:
The Dutch auteur’s family drama exceeded expectations on nominations morning with nine including another at bat for his Original Screenplay with Eskil Vogt. BAFTA and Golden Globe nods preceded the Oscar mention.
The Case Against Joachim Trier:
Trier didn’t make the cut at Critics Choice and, most importantly, Academy bellwether DGA. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) has swept the season thus far with Ryan Coogler (Sinners) seen as the only threat.
The Verdict:
Trier might have a slightly stronger shot for his cowriting (though Sinners is looking likely there). A directing victory isn’t happening.
My Case Of posts will continue with the final entrant in Best Actress – Emma Stone in Bugonia…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. The fourth entrant in Best Supporting Actor is Sean Penn as the villainous Colonel Steven J. Lockjaw in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. If you missed my posts covering the first three thespians in the race, they can be accessed here:
1995 – Actor (Dead Man Walking) – lost to Nicolas Cage for Leaving Las Vegas; 1999 – Actor (Sweet and Lowdown) – lost to Kevin Spacey for American Beauty; 2001 – Actor (I Am Sam) – lost to Denzel Washington for Training Day; 2003 – Actor (Mystic River) – WON; 2008 – Actor (Milk) – WON
The Case for Sean Penn:
The six-time nominee and two-time winner is peaking at the right time. Penn has taken the previous major precursors via BAFTA and SAG Actor. While he’s been a mainstay at the Oscars, it’s been 17 years between nominations and this is seen as his meatiest role in quite some time. He would entered rarified territory as only the 8th actor to have more than two gold statues joining Katherine Hepburn with four and the following performers with three – Ingrid Bergman, Walter Brennan, Daniel Day-Lewis, Frances McDormand, Jack Nicholson, and Meryl Streep.
The Case Against Sean Penn:
As you can see above, it’s no easy task to get a trio of Oscars. He could vote split with his costar Benicio del Toro. The early precursors did not go his way with Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) taking Critics Choice and the Globes selecting Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value). Unlike some his fellow nominees, he’s not big on campaigning.
The Verdict:
Momentum matters. A month ago, Penn looked like a long shot. Now he’s the favorite and hard to bet against.
My Case Of posts will continue with fourth director for consideration – Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value…
The Producers Guild of America (PGA) followed the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA and bestowed their best picture honors to Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another last night. It occurred during a weekend where Ryan Coogler’s Sinners has two shots to interrupt Battle‘s momentum. The second comes tonight at the Actor Awards (formerly known as SAG) where Sinners has a stronger chance to win the top Ensemble prize.
Even if it does, Battle‘s road to Oscar glory could be undeniable at this point with victories at the aforementioned precursors. A reminder that PGA and the Academy’s BP have matched five times in a row. I correctly called the biggest category and did the same in the animated race with KPop Demon Hunters. That Netflix phenomenon has also landed trophies at earlier ceremonies including the Globes and Critics Choice. The only place it didn’t was BAFTA where it wasn’t eligible and Zootopia 2 emerged. Yet that Disney sequel will likely be #2 to KPop in Academy tabulations.
The only surprise at PGA came in documentary where My Mom Jayne, Mariska Hargitay’s exploration of her relationship with mother Jayne Mansfield, was the winner. I went with another Netflix hit The Perfect Neighbor. Jayne is not among the doc quintet at the Oscars. Neighbor, seen as the Academy favorite, definitely looks vulnerable and I wouldn’t discount BAFTA recipient Mr. Nobody Against Putin or The Alabama Solution.
Keep an eye on the blog for my recap of the Actor Awards later tonight!
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. The third director for discussion is Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme. If you missed my posts covering Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) and Ryan Coogler (Sinners), you can access them here:
We went into 2025 wondering which Safdie brother would get the Oscar attention. Brother Benny put out The Smashing Machine in the fall and it generated only a Makeup and Hairstyling nod. Josh’s Marty Supreme nabbed nine mentions including Best Picture. For his direction, precursors noms have come at DGA, Critics Choice, and BAFTA.
The Case Against Josh Safdie:
Paul Thomas Anderson has taken all 3 of those precursors and Ryan Coogler is generally seen as the runner-up. Safdie missed the cut at the Golden Globes.
The Verdict:
Safdie’s first solo work in 17 years could see Timothée Chalamet crowned as Best Actor. That is Supreme‘s best and likely only shot at gold.
My Case Of posts will continue with the fourth entrant in Best Actress – Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value…
I didn’t anticipate mentioning the 2000 feature Billy Elliot in my BAFTA recap covering 2025 pictures, but these voters are dancing to the beat of a different drum so here we are! That’s one surprise of several that developed at the British equivalent of the Academy Awards. It was not surprising that Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another led the way and (yes) won one BAFTA after another. However, the outcome of the acting races provided legit unexpected results and might have a hand in reshaping what happens at the 98th Oscars.
As far as results, I went 14 for 23 in my projections and 1 for 4 in the acting derbies. I correctly forecasted Best Film and Director BAFTAs for One Battle After Another and its maker Anderson. Same goes for its victories in Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography. It also took the Editing prize where I had F1.
In Supporting Actor, Battle‘s Sean Penn emerged in a field where I picked Stellan Skasgård as the winner and had Penn’s costar Benicio del Toro as the runner-up. We now have 3 different Supporting Actor victors in the three highest profiles precursors – Penn at BAFTA, Skarsgård at the Globes, and Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) at Critics Choice. Let’s see what SAG Actor does next weekend as this race is wide open.
Battle did nothing but help its status as BP Oscar frontrunner. Yet Sinners didn’t take a significant hit. It won Original Screenplay and I went with Sentimental Value. I correctly picked it for Original Score.
In Supporting Actress, it represented a One Battle miss and a Sinners pickup. I went with Teyana Taylor, but Wunmi Mosaku lodged her first major recognition. Like Supporting Actor, we now have a trio of recipients among the precursors – Mosaku at BAFTA, Taylor at the Globes, and Amy Madigan (Weapons) at Critics Choice. Once again, SAG Actor will be closely viewed in another wide open acting derby. Simply put, I can’t remember the last time both supporting fields were this unpredictable.
That’s not the case in Actress where Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) predictably did a podium walk as her chances at a seasonal sweep are looking strong.
We will not be seeing a Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) sweep. I had him taking Actor with Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) as runner-up. BAFTA went their own way with Robert Aramayo (I Swear). He was additionally named the BAFTA Rising Star. Aramayo is not nominated at Oscar. The last time a BAFTA Best Actor wasn’t among the Academy’s quintet? That would be Jamie Bell in the title role of… you guessed it (!) Billy Elliot.
Here’s where I managed to get it right – Hamnet for Outstanding British Film and Sentimental Value having a subpar day with its sole win for Film Not in the English Language. I was correct in calling Zootopia 2 as Best Animated Film. Same goes for Frankenstein with the trio of Costume Design, Makeup & Hair, and Production Design and F1 in Sound and Avatar: Fire and Ash in Special Visual Effects.
Here’s where I whiffed. I will pat myself on the back for predicting The Perfect Neighbor would not be the documentary that BAFTA selected. Unfortunately I went with 2000 Meters to Andrivka and not Mr. Nobody Against Putin. Could it emerge as a spoiler to a Neighbor Oscar prize?
Pillion looked like the pick for Outstanding British Debut by a Writer, Director or Producer, but BAFTA chose My Father’s Shadow. Same with Children’s & Family Film where Zootopia 2 looked probable, but Boong was listed in the envelope. In Casting (always a tough race to project), I Swear emerged over Sentimental Value and my runner-up One Battle.
So what’s the biggest takeaway? I’d say the chaos occurring in the supporting competitions and that Battle vs. Sinners appears to still be a battle.
Today’s ceremony bestowed these numbers of wins for these movies:
6 Wins
One Battle After Another
3 Wins
Frankenstein, Sinners
2 Wins
Hamnet, I Swear
1 Win
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Boong, F1, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Father’s Shadow, Sentimental Value, Zootopia 2
I’ll have winner predictions up for SAG Actor (happening a week from today) on the blog soon!
The 79th BAFTAs (Britain’s version of the Academy Awards) occur this Sunday and they are often a reliable precursor to what Oscar voters will do. For example, they are 8 for 8 in the past two cycles in forecasting the acting races. On the flip side, in 2022, none of the four BAFTA acting recipients took the Oscar. The previous five cycles has seen the BAFTA Best Film match with Best Picture only twice (Nomadland, Oppenheimer). In 2021, the Brits honored The Power of the Dog over CODA (which wasn’t nominated). The following year it was All Quiet on the Western Front instead of Everything Everywhere All at Once. Last year, BAFTA selected Conclave and not Anora.
That’s why it’s very tempting to go with Hamnet over arguable frontrunners One Battle After Another and Sinners in the top competition. I almost did so, but ultimately decided with roll with Battle (with a low degree of confidence). Let’s walk through each race one by one with my winner projections and a runner-up.
Best Film
Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners
WINNER: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Runner-Up: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Best Actor
Robert Aramayo (I Swear), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)
WINNER: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Runner-Up: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Best Supporting Actress
Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Carey Mulligan (The Ballad of Wallis Island), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), Emily Watson (Hamnet)
WINNER: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Peter Mullan (I Swear), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
WINNER: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Runner-Up: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Best Original Screenplay
I Swear, Marty Supreme, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners
WINNER: Sentimental Value
Runner-Up: Sinners
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bugonia, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Pillion
WINNER: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Outstanding British Film
28 Years Later, The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Die My Love, H is for Hawk, Hamnet, I Swear, Mr Burton, Pillion, Steve
WINNER: Hamnet
Runner-Up: Pillion
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
The Ceremony, My Father’s Shadow, Pillion, A Want in Her, Wasteman
WINNER: Pillion
Runner-Up: My Father’s Shadow
Best Film Not in the English Language
It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab
WINNER: Sentimental Value
Runner-Up: The Secret Agent
Best Animated Film
Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2
WINNER: Zootopia 2
Runner-Up: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Best Children’s & Family Film
Arco, Boong, Lilo & Stitch, Zootopia 2
WINNER: Zootopia 2
Runner-Up: Arco
Best Documentary
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor
WINNER: 2000 Meters to Andrivka
Runner-Up: The Perfect Neighbor
Best Casting
I Swear, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners
WINNER: Sentimental Value
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Best Cinematography
Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams
WINNER: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Sinners
Best Costume Design
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
WINNER: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Best Editing
F1, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
WINNER: F1
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Best Make Up & Hair
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
WINNER: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good
Best Original Score
Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners
WINNER: Sinners
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Best Production Design
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
WINNER: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Best Sound
F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare
WINNER: F1
Runner-Up: Sinners
Best Special Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, How to Train Your Dragon, The Lost Bus
WINNER: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Runner-Up: F1
That adds up to these movies generating numbers of victories:
5 Wins
One Battle After Another
4 Wins
Sentimental Value
3 Wins
Frankenstein
2 Wins
F1, Hamnet, Zootopia 2
1 Win
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Marty Supreme, Pillion, Sinners
I’ll have a recap up Sunday with how I performed and my thoughts on how it might impact the Oscars…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our second director to consider is Ryan Coogler for Sinners. If you missed my post covering Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another, you can find it here:
He’s the director of the movie with the most nominations (an all-time record of 16) and Sinners is the highest grosser of the 10 movies up for BP. Coogler has taken Hollywood by storm over the past decade with the Creed and Black Panther franchises before this vampire saga gave him his highest acclaim. For his behind the camera work, nods have come at Critics Choice, the Globes, BAFTA, and DGA.
The Case Against Ryan Coogler:
Paul Thomas Anderson’s work in One Battle has taken the DGA, the Globe, and Critics Choice with BAFTA yet to come. The DGA especially is a heavy indicator of the Oscar winner.
The Verdict:
When Sinners did better than anticipated on nomination morning with that historic haul, it opened up the possibility of victories previously unforeseen. If this takes Best Picture (which is certainly feasible), obviously Coogler could come along for the ride. That said, it’s hard to ignore how PTA has swept through the season.
My Case Of posts will continue with the third entrant for Best Actress and that’s because Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. A mostly unknown chap that goes by Leonardo DiCaprio is our second contender in Best Actor for One Battle After Another. If you missed my post on Timothée Chalamet as Marty Supreme, you can peruse it here:
1993 – Supporting Actor (What’s Eating Gilbert Grape) – lost to Tommy Lee Jones for The Fugitive; 2004 – Actor (The Aviator) – lost to Jamie Foxx for Ray; 2006 – Actor (Blood Diamond) – lost to Forest Whitaker from The Last King of Scotland; 2013 – Actor (The Wolf of Wall Street) – lost to Matthew McConaughey from Dallas Buyers Club); 2015 – Actor (The Revenant) – WON); 2019 – Actor (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) – lost to Joaquin Phoenix from Joker
The Case for Leonardo DiCaprio:
Arguably being the biggest movie star on the planet helps. It doesn’t hurt that Battle is the frontrunner or easily co-frontrunner for Best Picture. As former revolutionary turned forgetful dad Bob Ferguson, DiCaprio has racked up all the precursors nominations including the Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and SAG Actor.
The Case Against Leonardo DiCaprio:
He is up against arguably the biggest movie star on the planet Timothée Chalamet and his work as Marty Supreme has already won him the Globe and Critics Choice prize. Leo’s overdue narrative ended ten years ago with his Revenant victory.
The Verdict:
A SAG Actor or BAFTA trophy would be needed for DiCaprio to pose any real threat to a Chalamet sweep. He might be #2 among the Best Actor five, but there’s some considerable distance between 1st and 2nd.
My Case Of posts will continue with the second nominee in Supporting Actress and that’s Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass in Sentimental Value…
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