Tag: Paul Mescal

97th Academy Awards Predictions: June 9th Edition

My first Oscar predictions for the month of June shows that box office matters and the poor performance of Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga causes it to fall out of my 25 BP hopefuls. Meanwhile the acclaimed Iranian drama The Seed of the Sacred Fig rises 12 sports to #10 in BP with His Three Daughters falling out. Fig’s maker Mohammad Rasoulof is in the directing quintet for the first time.

The aforementioned Daughters is not just out in BP. Natasha Lyonne drops in Actress in favor of Karla Sofia Gascón in Emilia Pérez while Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) replaces Carrie Coon in Supporting Actress.

In Actor, it is Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) back in over Glen Powell (Hit Man). Yet the news isn’t all bad for that latter picture as I’m projecting the screenplay contests for the first time. Hit Man grabs a spot in Adapted Screenplay.

A reminder – the placement of performers is uncertain at press time. One example is Saldaña and Karla Sofia Gascón for Pérez. They could easily be switched and contend in one another’s races. In fact, I had it the other way around until now. There’s also Saoirse Ronan. I have her as a double nominee for The Outrun in lead and Blitz in supporting. She could be campaigned for Best Actress in both.

It will all shake out soon enough and here’s where I have nominations standing at the moment!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Conclave (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Anora (PR: 7) (+2)

6. Queer (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The End (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 22) (+12)

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (E)

13. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-5)

14. Nickel Boys (PR: 23) (+9)

15. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-1)

16. Maria (PR: 20) (+4)

17. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (-2)

18. A Real Pain (PR: 24) (+6)

19. Hit Man (PR: 19) (-1)

20. Dídi (PR: 17) (-3)

21. Bird (PR: 19) (-2)

22. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

23. Here (PR: 21) (-2)

24. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (-11)

25. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

Not Ranked:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Civil War

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 15) (+10)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (E)

14. Pablo Larrain, Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters

Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness

George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)

2. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting

5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

7. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 8) (E)

9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Zoe Saldaña, Emila Pérez – moved to supporting

Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (+1)

10. George MacKay, The End (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 14) (E)

15. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Paul Bettany, The Collaboration

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead

4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 11) (+5)

7. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Emily Watson, Small Things like These (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (E)

11. Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez – moved to lead

Robin Wright, Here

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)

3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (E)

8. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 8) (E)

9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Michael Shannon, The End (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Brendan Gleeson, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)

14. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: 15) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora

2. Blitz

3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig

4. The End

5. His Three Daughters

Other Possibilities:

6. Hard Truths

7. Emilia Pérez

8. A Real Pain

9. The Apprentice

10. Kinds of Kindness

11. All We Imagine as Light

12. Challengers

13. Maria

14. Dídi

15. We Live in Time

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave

2. Queer

3. Sing Sing

4. The Piano Lesson

5. Hit Man

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Two

7. Nickel Boys

8. Nightbitch

9. Joker: Folie à Deux

10. The Fire Inside

11. Here

12. The Actor

13. The Collaboration

14. Gladiator II

15. Small Things like These

97th Academy Awards Predictions: May 27, 2024

The Cannes Film Festival is complete and it has vaulted some pictures into contention while essentially eliminating others. Those on the others list include Francis Ford Coppola’s Megalopolis, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 from Kevin Costner, and Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada.

On the other hand, Andrea Arnold’s Bird and Ali Abbasi’s The Apprentice still have life, but certainly are not sure things. Same goes for Kinds of Kindness from Yorgos Lanthimos and Jacques Audiard’s Emila Pérez (I’m pretty high on its chances though).

The film that did itself the most good is Sean Baker’s Anora which took the Palme d’Or over the long weekend. It now climbs into my Picture, Director, and Actress (Mikey Madison) fields.

While the Iranian drama The Seed of the Sacred Fig by Mohammad Rasoulof is unlikely to be submitted for International Feature Film, there’s a chance it contends in BP and you’ll see it listed here for the first time as a possibility.

Let’s get into all of it and you can anticipate the next update in a couple of weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)

6. The End (PR: 6) (E)

7. Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

8. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 18) (+5)

14. Nightbitch (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Fire Inside (PR: 17) (+2)

16. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 15) (-1)

17. Dìdi (PR: 14) (-3)

18. Hit Man (PR: 19) (+1)

19. Bird (PR: 13) (-6)

20. Maria (PR: 22) (+2)

21. Here (PR: 25) (+4)

22. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)

23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+1)

24. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (-4)

25. Civil War (PR: 21) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2

Gladiator II

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 11) (-2)

14. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ali Abbasi, The Apprentice

Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2

Andrea Arnold, Bird

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

4. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 4) (E)

5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

7. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting

15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Florence Pugh, We Live in Time

Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

Emma Stone, Kinds of Kindness

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (E)

9. George MacKay, The End (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 14) (E)

15. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Kevin Costner, Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2

Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (E)

5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (E)

7. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (E)

11. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robin Wright, Here (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice

Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (moved to Actress)

Cailee Spaeny, Civil War

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (-1)

8. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Michael Shannon, The End (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Brendan Gleeson, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

Leigh Gill, Blitz

97th Academy Awards Predictions: May 19th, 2024

My latest round of Oscar predictions arrives at the midpoint of the Cannes Film Festival and the hoopla on the French Riviera has cleared up some lingering questions. Is Francis Ford Coppola’s decades in development sci-fi epic Megalopolis a contender? That answer appears to be no. Same goes for Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada.

It gets a lot more uncertain after that. Andrea Arnold’s Bird has its fans and I do think its BP chances are intact. Category placement issues abound. I thought Barry Keoghan would be lead for Bird, but reaction suggests he’s supporting.

Then there’s Kinds of Kindness from Yorgos Lanthimos. The WOM for it suggests it definitely faces longer odds for Academy inclusion that his two predecessors The Favourite and Poor Things. That said, I wouldn’t totally discount it. I could see it generating a lone Original Screenplay nod. Right now I’m putting Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons in lead as possibilities and hopefully we’ll know soon if they’re being campaigned there or in supporting.

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga also is behind its predecessor Mad Max: Fury Road in terms of possibilities. While it should land a few tech nods, BP and Director chances are feasible yet less than what happened nine years ago.

I would suggest that Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez has done itself the most good at Cannes. The crowd-pleasing reaction has me elevating it into the top 10 in BP with Zoe Saldaña in Actress and Karla Sofia Gascón in Supporting Actress. In previous posts, I had those two performers in each other’s categories. It’s still not locked as to where they will be, but this is my best guess based on the information available.

In news not related to Cannes, it was announced that The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat will be a Hulu exclusive premiere. That would seem to take it out of contention at the Oscars.

I will likely have another update posted next weekend since more Cannes titles will be unveiled including Horizon: An American Saga and The Apprentice. Stay tuned, folks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)

6. The End (PR: 6) (E)

7. His Three Daughters (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 15) (+6)

10. The Apprentice (PR: 13) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Bird (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Dídi (PR: 23) (+9)

15. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 14) (-1)

16. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 12) (-4)

17. The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (-10)

18. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (-10)

19. Hit Man (PR: 20) (+1)

20. A Real Pain (PR: 21) (+1)

21. Civil War (PR: 19) (-2)

22. Maria (PR: 17) (-5)

23. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 18) (-6)

25. Here (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Megalopolis

The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

Hard Truths

SNL 1975

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: 15) (+9)

7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 9) (E)

10. Ali Abbasi, The Apprentice (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 12) (E)

13. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Andrea Arnold, Bird (PR: 5) (-9)

15. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness

Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside

Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (E)

3. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 3) (E)

4. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked, moved from Supporting)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 12) (E)

13. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: 13) (E)

14. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Emma Stone, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (moved to Supporting)

Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR 3) (E)

4. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (+4)

5. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)

9. George MacKay, The End (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Kinglsey Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (E)

14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Barry Keoghan, Bird (moved to Supportong)

Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (E)

5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)

10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: 11) (E)

12. Robin Wright, Here (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (E)

14. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Cailee Spaeny, Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness

Erin Kellyman, Blitz

Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness

Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (moved to lead)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (+4)

5. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 3 (-4)

8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: Not Ranked, moved from lead)

10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Leigh Gill, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Franz Rogowski, Bird

Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor

And here we go! We are about four weeks removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my first takes on the supporting derbies and they can be perused here:

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
97th Academy Awards: FIRST Oscar Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

We now move to Actor. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded two nominees: winner Cillian Murphy as Oppenheimer and Bradley Cooper in Maestro. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named Colman Domingo in Rustin and Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers I did not identify Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) at the early juncture.

Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned for in supporting actor.

My first projections give Colman Domingo a second shot in a row in this competition. Cillian Murphy could be back as well. They also open up the possibility of Joaquin Phoenix’s return as Joker giving him another statue in the role. In 2023, I listed Kingsley Ben-Adir in Bob Marley: One Love as one of my predicted quintet. Now he’s an Other Possibility (and a somewhat remote one at that).

Here’s the first snapshot:

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTOR AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Daniel Craig, Queer

Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

André Holland, The Actor

Barry Keoghan, Bird

Other Possibilities:

Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love

Adam Driver, Megalopolis

Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time

Paul Mescal, Gladiator 2

Cillian Murphy, Small Things like These

Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux

Glen Powell, Hit Man

Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

Best Actress is up next!

77th BAFTA Winner Predictions

Sunday brings the 77th BAFTA Awards as we look for further clues to the pictures and performers who will emerge victorious at the Oscars next month. Oppenheimer leads the pack with 13 nominations (the same number as its Academy haul) with Poor Things in second with 11 (also matching numbers wise with its American counterpart).

For each race, I’m giving you a predicted winner with a runner-up. I’ll have a recap on the blog with my takeaways following the ceremony!

Film

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Director

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

Predicted Winner: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Is there one?? Let’s just say Glazer

Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Vivian Oparah (Rye Lane), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, Poor Things

Runner-Up: Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Teo Yoo (Past Lives)

Predicted Winner: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers), Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Predicted Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Jacob Elordi (Saltburn), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)

Predicted Winner: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Original Screenplay

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, Past Lives

Predicted Winner: Anatomy of a Fall

Runner-Up: The Holdovers

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Poor Things

Runner-Up: Oppenheimer

Animated Feature

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Winner: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron

Documentary

Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wham!

Predicted Winner: 20 Days in Mariupol

Runner-Up: Beyond Utopia

Film Not in the English Language

Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Anatomy of a Fall

Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest

Casting

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, How to Have Sex, Killers of the Flower Moon

Predicted Winner: All of Us Strangers

Runner-Up: The Holdovers

Cinematography

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Costume Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Poor Things

Runner-Up: Barbie

Editing

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Make-Up & Hair

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Maestro

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Original Score

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon

Production Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Poor Things

Runner-Up: Barbie

Sound

Nominees: Ferrari, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest

Special Visual Effects

Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Napoleon

Runner-Up: The Creator

Outstanding British Film

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, Napoleon, The Old Oak, Poor Things, Rye Lane, Saltburn, Scrapper, Wonka, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Poor Things

Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

Nominees: Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, Earth Mama, How to Have Sex, Is There Anybody Out There?

Predicted Winner: How to Have Sex

Runner-Up: Bobi Wine: The People’s President

Rising Star

Nominees: Phoebe Dynevor, Ayo Edebiri, Jacob Elordi, Mia McKenna-Bruce, Sophia Wilde

Predicted Winner: Jacob Elordi

Runner-Up: Mia McKenna-Bruce

That works out to these numbers of victories for these pictures:

8 Wins

Oppenheimer

5 Wins

Poor Things

2 Wins

Anatomy of a Fall

1 Win

20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, The Holdovers, Maestro, Napoleon, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

77th BAFTA Nominations Reaction

The BAFTAs, the United Kingdom’s equivalent to the Oscars, unveiled their nominations six days before the Academy has their turn. In short… the BAFTAs always BAFTA. That means there were some baffling omissions in some major competitions that could alter the thinking of prognosticators when it comes to their Oscar forecasts. Then again… the BAFTAs have a history of going their own way that doesn’t necessarily have a connection to what the Academy ultimately decides. I went 85 for 119 in my guesstimates for BAFTA.

Let’s walk each race one by one with the nominees, how I performed, and some quick thoughts.

Film

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 4/5

Barbie failed to make the cut with The Holdovers (which had a very impressive morning) sliding in. This is likely Oppenheimer‘s race to lose.

Director

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

How I Did: 4/6

Here’s where the shockers begin. Cooper and Payne are in over Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things) and Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). Marty’s exclusion is especially surprising. As with Film – Mr. Nolan is looking strong.

Actress

Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Sandra Huller (The Zone of Interest), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Vivian Oparah (Rye Lane), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

How I Did: 3/6

More unforeseen action as Barrino, Oparah, and Robbie (my alternate) appear here instead of Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Greta Lee (Past Lives), and Mia McKenna-Bruce (How to Have Sex). In perhaps the story of the day, Gladstone falling off is truly astonishing as she’s been seen by many (including me) as the #1 option for the Oscar in Actress. For BAFTA, Stone might be the smart choice and you can anticipate some writers switching her to the top spot over Gladstone at Oscar.

Actor

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Teo Yoo (Past Lives)

How I Did: 4/6

Despite no love for Past Lives in the categories above, Teo Yeo is in along with Domingo in place of Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers). Scott’s omission at BAFTA, to me, is more unexpected than Leo missing. Murphy might be out front, but Giamatti (especially considering The Holdovers overperformance) is a factor. For that matter, Maestro also had a solid showing and Cooper could get a win here.

Supporting Actress

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers), Sandra Huller (The Zone of Interest), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

How I Did: 5/6

Hüller, who was my alternate pick, is a double nominee. I went with Cara Jade Myers for Flower Moon. Randolph has been sweeping the season thus far and will look to continue that.

Supporting Actor

Nominees: Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Jacob Elordi (Saltburn), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)

How I Did: 4/6

Elordi and Sessa in over Anthony Hopkins (One Life) and Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things). It’s worth noting that this is Ruffalo’s second major miss after SAG. Downey Jr. has taken GG and CCA and looks to keep the streak alive.

Original Screenplay

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, Past Lives

How I Did: 4/5

Maestro finds a slot over my Saltburn call. Considering how The Holdovers performed, I’d put it out front with Anatomy lurking.

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 4/5

Now would be a good time to mention that Zone had a fine day despite missing Best Film. It’s in here over Flower Moon in another snub for Scorsese’s epic. This is a tricky race and I’m not ready to declare a frontrunner.

Casting

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, How to Have Sex, Killers of the Flower Moon

How I Did: 2/5

Since there’s no Oscar competition for this one, it’s always a crapshoot figuring this out and it shows. Anatomy, How to, and Holdovers are named and I picked Barbie, Oppenheimer (a rare category which it missed), and Saltburn.

Animated Feature

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

How I Did: 3/4

As with all animated derbies for 2023, it’s Heron vs. Spider-Man. The former could have the edge at BAFTA, but either could be victorious. I had Nimona instead of Elemental.

British Film

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, Napoleon, The Old Oak, Poor Things, Rye Lane, Saltburn, Scrapper, Wonka, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 9/10

My alt Oak makes the ten over One Life. Maybe Poor Things gets this since it’s the only Best Film entry. However, I wouldn’t discount Strangers or Zone.

Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer

Nominees: Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, Earth Mama, How to Have Sex, Is There Anybody Out There?

How I Did: 1/5

Ouch. Only got How to Have Sex listed correctly so I guess I’ll say it wins (especially considering its impressive performance elsewhere). I wrongly had The End We Start From, Police Society, Rye Lane, and Scrapper.

Film Not in the English Language

Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 3/5

Mariupol and Snow over The Boy and the Heron and Fallen Leaves. Anatomy is probably a slight favorite over Zone.

Documentary

Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Still: A Michael J. Fox, Wham!

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

I’ll admit I didn’t think this would be one of my 2 perfect calls. Considering its inclusion in the international race, Mariupol is a decent bet for the trophy.

Cinematography

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did 4/5

Maestro over Saltburn. Think Oppenheimer.

Costume Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 4/5

Killers over Wonka. Think Barbie or Poor Things.

Editing

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

This is Oppenheimer.

Makeup and Hair

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 3/5

Barbie and Priscilla are no-shows while Killers and Napoleon materialize. This should be Maestro.

Original Score

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

How I Did: 4/5

My alt Saltburn in over Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (which missed both races I projected it in). Think Oppenheimer.

Production Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 4/5

My alt Zone in over Napoleon. This should be Barbie or Poor Things.

Sound

Nominees: Ferrari, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 4/5

Mission over Napoleon. Bank on an Oppenheimer win.

Special Visual Effects

Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon, Poor Things

How I Did: 2/5

Ouch on this one. We know now that Oppenheimer will not be a nominee in VE for BAFTA or Oscar. Indiana Jones, Oppenheimer, and Spider-Man out in favor of my alt Guardians, Mission, and Napoleon. Your guess is as good as mine, but maybe Creator or Poor Things is the pick.

That all works out to these movies contending for these numbers of BAFTAs:

13 Noininations

Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Poor Things

10 Nominations

The Zone of Interest

9 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

7 Nominations

The Holdovers, Maestro

6 Nominations

All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall

5 Nominations

Barbie, Saltburn

4 Nominations

Napoleon

3 Nominations

How to Have Sex, Past Lives

2 Nominations

20 Days in Mariupol, The Color Purple, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Rye Lane, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

1 Nomination

American Fiction, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, The Creator, Earth Mama, Elemental, Ferrari, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Is There Anybody Out There?, The Old Oak, Rustin, Scrapper, Society of the Snow, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wham!, Wonka

I’ll have winner predictions up for shortly before the BAFTA ceremony on Sunday, February 18th.

77th BAFTA Nominations Predictions

This Thursday, nominations for the British Academy Film Awards (commonly known as BAFTA) will be unveiled prior to its February 18th airdate. After a busy precursor frame this past week, all eyes will be on BAFTA as we finalize our Oscar forecast for the big announcement in seven days.

As I do with other precursors, I’m giving you my picks along with an alternate. With the BAFTAs, there’s a mix of numbers for the races. Most are five though directing and the acting derbies are six with ten for Outstanding British Film and 4 for Animated Feature.

Got all that? Let’s get to it!

Film

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Alternate: The Zone of Interest

Director

Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

Andrew Haigh, All of Us Strangers

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

Alternate: Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Actress

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flowe Moon

Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Greta Lee, Past Lives

Mia McKenna-Bruce, How to Have Sex

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Emma Stone, Poor Things

Alternate: Margot Robbie, Barbie

Actor

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Barry Keoghan, Saltburn

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers

Alternate: Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers

Cara Jade Myers, Killers of the Flower Moon

Rosamund Pike, Saltburn

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Alternate: Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest

Supporting Actor

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Anthony Hopkins, One Life

Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Alternate: Jamie Bell, All of Us Strangers

Original Screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

The Holdovers

Past Lives

Saltburn

Alternate: How to Have Sex

Adapted Screenplay

All of Us Strangers

American Fiction

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Alternate: The Zone of Interest

Casting

All of Us Strangers

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Saltburn

Alternate: The Holdovers

Animated Feature

The Boy and the Heron

Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Nimona

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Alternate: Elemental

British Film

All of Us Strangers

How to Have Sex

Napoleon

One Life

Poor Things

Rye Lane

Saltburn

Scrapper

Wonka

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: The Old Oak

Debut a British Writer, Director, or Producer

The End We Start From

How to Have Sex

Polite Society

Rye Lane

Scrapper

Alternate: Is There Anybody Out There?

Film Not in English Language

Anatomy of a Fall

The Boy and the Heron

Fallen Leaves

Past Lives

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: Society of the Snow

Documentary

20 Days in Mariupol

American Symphony

Beyond Utopia

Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie

Wham!

Alternate: The Pigeon Tunnel

Cinematography

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Saltburn

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: Maestro

Costume Design

Barbie

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Wonka

Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon

Editing

Anatomy of a Fall

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: Barbie

Makeup and Hair

Barbie

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Priscilla

Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon

Original Score

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Alternate: Saltburn

Production Design

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Alternate: The Zone of Interest

Sound

Ferrari

Maestro

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon

Special Visual Effects

The Creator

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Alternate: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

That works out to the following number of nominations for these films:

15 Nominations

Oppenheimer

13 Nominations

Poor Things

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

7 Nominations

All of Us Strangers, Barbie

6 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, Saltburn, The Zone of Interest

4 Nominations

Maestro, Napoleon

3 Nominations

The Holdovers, How to Have Sex, Past Lives, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

2 Nominations

The Boy and the Heron, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, One Life, Rye Lane, Scrapper, Wonka

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, American Fiction, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, The Color Purple, The Creator, The End We Start From, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Nimona, Polite Society, Priscilla, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wham!

2023 Oscar Predictions: October 29th Edition

As October closes out, my first predictions in two weeks sees changes with a few of the major categories along with a significant ranking alteration. American Fiction is back in the projected ten for Best Picture with Anatomy of a Fall falling to 11th. Jeffrey Wright from Fiction also gets into the quintet for Actor at the expense of Colman Domingo in Rustin.

Greta Lee returns to the Actress lineup with Margot Robbie (Barbie) out while Viola Davis (Air) is back in the Supporting Actress derby with Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) on the outside looking in. Charles Melton (May December) is in Supporting Actor with Willem Dafoe (Poor Things) now in sixth.

As for that ranking alteration, Bradley Cooper (Maestro) is in 1st position in Actor for the first time with Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) now runner-up.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Maestro (PR: 6) (+1)

6. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (E)

10. American Fiction (PR: 12) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Air (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Napoleon (PR: 13 (E)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Saltburn (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 7) (E)

8. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (E)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)

10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (E)

10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Adam Driver, Ferrari

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Rosamund Pike, Saltburn

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)

10. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Air (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

7. May December (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)

9. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (E)

10. Fair Play (PR: 10) (E)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Fiction (PR: 6) (+2)

5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Taste of Things (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Priscilla (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Hit Man

Origin

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 8) (+2)

7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Peasants (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Promised Land (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Monk and the Gun (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Settlers

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Elemental (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Peasants (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nimona (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Suzume (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 2) (E)

3. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 5) (+2)

4. American Symphony (PR: Not Ranked)

5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Four Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Deepest Breath (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Every Body

Wild Life

It Ain’t Over

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+2)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Past Lives

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Chevalier (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Wonka (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Priscilla (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Maestro

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barbie (PR: 8) (+2)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Air (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Past Lives

Ferrari

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Maestro (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Golda (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nyad (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Napoleon

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)

7. Carmen (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Killer (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Napoleon

The Boy and the Heron

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 5) (+2)

4. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 8) (+2)

7. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 10) (E)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Barbie (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)

7. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Saltburn (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (E)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Ferrari (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Barbie

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Wonka (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Barbie

That shakes out to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Poor Things

11 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

9 Nominations

Barbie

8 Nominations

The Color Purple

6 Nominations

Maestro

5 Nominations

The Holdovers

4 Nominations

Past Lives, The Zone of Interest

3 Nominations

American Fiction, Napoleon

2 Nominations

Air, Anatomy of a Fall, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, American Symphony, Asteroid City, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, May December, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rustin, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge

2023 Oscar Predictions: October 15th Edition

My mid-October Oscar predictions has Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things leading the nominations tally with an impressive 12 apiece!

Poor Things rises partly because I’m putting Willem Dafoe back in my projected Supporting Actor quintet alongside his costar Mark Ruffalo. In Supporting Actress, I’ve elevated Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) over Viola Davis (Air). This is Cruz’s first appearance in my top five.

Margot Robbie (Barbie) returns to my Actress five with Greta Lee (Past Lives) on the outside looking in. You can peruse all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+3)

6. Maestro (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Past Lives (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Air (PR: 12) (+1)

12. American Fiction (PR: 1) (-1)

13. Napoleon (PR: 13) (E)

14. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Origin

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)

7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)

10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Barry Koeghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)

5. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

America Ferrera, Barbie

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (-1)

7. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon

Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

7. Air (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Saltburn (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Fair Play (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. American Fiction (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Origin (PR: 9) (E)

10. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Promised Land (PR: 10) (+4)

7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Settlers (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Monk and the Gun (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Peasants

The Delinquents

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elemental (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nimona (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Peasants (PR: 8) (E)

9. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Suzume (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 2) (E)

3. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Every Body (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wild Life (PR: Not Ranked)

10. It Ain’t Over (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Deepest Breath

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Past Lives (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ferrari

The Killer

Barbie

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Barbie (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Chevalier (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Priscilla (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Wonka (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Ferrari (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Barbie (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Air (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Anatomy of a Fall

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Priscilla (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Golda (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Nyad (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Beau Is Afraid

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Elemental (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Killer (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ferrari

Barbie

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ferrari (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Napoleon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 10) (+4)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Barbie (PR: 8) (E)

9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-4)

10. The Creator (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Creator (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Poor Things (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Barbie (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Killers of the Flower Moon

That gives us a tally for these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

10 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

The Color Purple

5 Nominations

The Holdovers, Maestro, The Zone of Interest

4 Nominations

Past Lives

3 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon

2 Nominations

Elemental, Ferrari, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Rustin, Wish

1 Nominations

20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Rebel Moon, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge

2023 Oscar Predictions: October 3rd Edition

The September triumvirate of high profile festivals (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) is in the rearview mirror. The New York Film Festival is happening now though there’s not a huge number of pictures that didn’t already premiere at earlier fests. One that did – Garth Davis’s Foe – proved to be an awards bust. With a 21% Rotten Tomatoes score, you can assume this is the last time it will be mentioned in these prediction posts.

Truth be told, there are just a few Oscar bait titles left to screen. They include The Color Purple, Napoleon, Disney’s Wish, The Iron Claw, and Wonka (in some tech races).

I thought this might be an opportune time to tell you how my 2022 predictions from this same time of year stood up. Last year, when I did forecasts for the 95th Academy Awards on October 5th, it yielded an impressive 8 of the eventual nominees (winner Everything Everywhere All at Once, All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking). The other two nominees (Avatar: The Way of Water and Elvis) were both listed in other possibilities.

For Best Director, I correctly called three of the five (winners the Daniels for Everything Everywhere, Todd Field for Tár, Steven Spielberg with The Fabelmans). Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Rüben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) were identified as other possibilities.

The #3 also applied to Actress as I named winner Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everything) along with Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans). Ana de Armas (Blonde) was tagged under other possibilities while Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie) was not yet on the radar screen. Same goes for Best Actor (3) where I had winner Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Austin Butler (Elvis), and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Bill Nighy (Living) in othjer possibilities. Paul Mescal (Aftersun) was outside of the top ten.

In the supporting derbies, my 2022 early October projections gave you only two of the eventual five in Supporting Actress with Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Hong Chau (The Whale). Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere) was an other possibility. The winner Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere) was not yet in my listed ten nor was fellow nominee Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever). For Supporting Actor, I correctly had three with winner Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere) and Banshees costars Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) was in other possibilities while Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) had not entered my mix.

Whew. For those keeping score, that means I predicted 22 of the 35 movies, directors, and actors in those six races at this same juncture in 2022.

My first October projections contain a few alterations from my final September write-up. As much as I don’t like taking Toronto’s People’s Choice Award victor American Fiction out of my BP lineup, I’m doing so with The Zone of Interest back in that list. On the same note, Zone‘s filmmaker Jonathan Glazer returns to my directing quintet with Celine Song (Past Lives) on the outside looking in.

Greta Lee (Past Lives) jumps back in Actress with Margot Robbie (Barbie) omitted. However, Lee’s costar John Magaro is dropped from Supporting Actor in favor of Charles Melton (May December).

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. American Fiction (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Air (PR: 12) (E)

13. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)

15. Origin (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)

7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)

7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeffrey Wright, Amerian Fiction (PR: 6) (E)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Teo Yoo, Past Lives

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (E)

7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4 ) (E)

5. Air (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

7. May December (PR: 7) (E)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

9. Fair Play (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)

5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Hit Man (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Origin (PR: 9) (E)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)

4. About Dry Grasses (PR: 5) (-1)

5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Peasants (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Settlers (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Delinquents (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Promised Land (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Teachers’ Lounge

Io capitano

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nimona (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Peasants (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Suzume

Robot Dreams

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (-2)

5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Every Body (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: 5) (-3)

9. It Ain’t Over (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Deepest Breath (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

American Symphony

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Barbie (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Chevalier (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Priscilla (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Wonka (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Maestro

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Past Lives (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Maestro (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Air (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Barbie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ferrari (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Beau is Afraid (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Golda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nyad (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Oppenheimer

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Past Lives (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Killer (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Asteroid City

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 9) (+3)

7. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 6) (-3)

10. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“High Life” from Flora and Son

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Napoleon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Wonka

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ferrari (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Barbie (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Maestro (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The Killer

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Creator (PR: 3) (E)

4. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 8) (-2)

That means I’m projecting these movies will garner these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

10 Nominations

Poor Things

9 Nominations

Barbie

6 Nominations

The Color Purple, Maestro

5 Nominations

Past Lives

4 Nominations

The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest

3 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall

2 Nominations

Air, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

1 Nomination

About Dry Grasses, All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Asteroid City, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, The Killer, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, 20 Days in Mariupol