Tag: paul giamatti

81st Golden Globe Awards Nominations Reaction

Nominations for the 81st Golden Globe Awards (airing January 7th) were unveiled this morning. As always, there were some surprises and it was a particularly weak day for one hopeful. That said, a lot of what transpired went according to plan. I went 74 for 92 on my picks (I’ll take it!).

Let’s walk through each race with how I did and my initial take on who or what may emerge victorious.

Best Motion Picture Drama

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

Nailed the Drama category as this probably will come down to Oppenheimer vs. Killers.

Best Motion Picture Musical/Comedy

Nominees: Air, American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, May December, Poor Things

How I Did: 5/6

In what might be the most surprising omission of the morning, The Color Purple didn’t make the cut. I (along with everyone else) had it in. I didn’t have Air though it was my alternate. Barbie is the frontrunner though Poor Things is viable.

Best Director

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Celine Song (Past Lives)

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

Just as in Motion Picture Drama, Nolan vs. Scorsese might be the showdown with Gerwig as a potential spoiler.

Best Actress Drama

Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla)

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

I wouldn’t discount Hüller or Mulligan as slight upset picks, but Gladstone looks to be the favorite.

Best Actor Drama

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

Like the Oscar race, this could end up as a contest between Cooper vs. Murphy.

Best Actress Musical/Comedy

Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Jennifer Lawrence (No Hard Feelings), Natalie Portman (May December), Alma Pöysti (Fallen Leaves), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

How I Did: 4/6

Pöysti is an out of nowhere selection while Lawrence was my alternate. They get in over Abby Ryder Fortson (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret) and Julia Louis-Dreyfus (You Hurt My Feelings). This is either Stone (probably) or Robbie (maybe).

Best Actor Musical/Comedy

Nominee: Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario), Timothee Chalamet (Wonka), Matt Damon (Air), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Joaquin Phoenix (Beau Is Afraid), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

How I Did: 5/6

Phoenix in over Gael Garcia Bernal for Cassandro. Wright has a shot, but this is Giamatti’s category to lose in my view.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Julianne Moore (May December), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

How I Did: 5/6

I would’ve picked Brooks as the likely winner until Purple‘s poor performance today. Now I think this acting race, perhaps more than any other, is wide open. I had Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) in instead of Pike.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Charles Melton (May December), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

How I Did: 5/6

Had Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers) and not Dafoe. Downey Jr. is the probable selection though I wouldn’t discount Gosling or Melton.

Best Screenplay

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things

How I Did: 4/6

I did not have Anatomy or Past Lives. Their inclusion is by no means shocking, but I am genuinely surprised The Holdovers did not make the list (neither did American Fiction). This is another race where the voters could go several directions with Barbie perhaps having an ever so slight edge.

Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Nominees: Barbie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, John Wick: Chapter 4, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning: Part One, Oppenheimer, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

How I Did: 7/8

This new category can correctly be called the “Barbenheimer” award or the “Let’s Get Taylor Swift To The Ceremony Trophy”. I didn’t have Reckoning and instead had Elemental. Hard to imagine this not going to Barbie.

Best Non-English Motion Picture

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Fallen Leaves, Io Capitano, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 3/6

Here’s where I screwed up. Didn’t have Leaves, Capitano, or Past Lives (which is considered non-English for some reason here). Instead I had Perfect Days, The Taste of Things, and The Teachers’ Lounge. This should come down to Anatomy vs. Zone and I’m currently expecting the former to emerge.

Best Animated Motion Picture

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Suzume, Wish

How I Did: 4/6

Suzume and Wish get in over Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget and Nimona. Some others were blindsided that Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem didn’t make it. Boy vs. Spidey is the showdown.

Best Original Score

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 5/6

Zone makes the derby instead of Nyad. This should be Oppenheimer.

Best Original Song

Nominees: “Addicted to Romance” from She Came to Me, “Dance the Night” from Barbie, “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie, “Road to Freedom” from Rustin, “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

How I Did: 3/6

Well, I got half and those were the Barbie tracks. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot, “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple, and “A World of Your Own” from Wonka were my picks instead of “Addicted to Romance” (which could mean Bruce Springsteen shows up), “Peaches”, and “Road to Freedom”. I’d say “What Was I Made For?” or “I’m Just Ken” win.

And there you have it. I’ll have final predictions for the Globes up shortly before airtime. Keep an eye on the blog for all things Oscar!

2023 Oscar Predictions: December 10th Edition

My first Oscar predictions for the month of December comes on the eve of Golden Globe nominations and days after NBR and AFI revealed their best of for 2023.

There is a change in BP as American Fiction is back in with Anatomy of a Fall out. In Best Actress, Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) reaches the #1 spot. She overtakes Emma Stone in Poor Things who has held the position for several weeks. Gladstone’s rise happens as her costars Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro slip a little in their categories. Also in Best Actress, Margot Robbie (Barbie) returns to the quintet at the expense of Fantasia Barrino in The Color Purple. In Actor, Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) is in over Colman Domingo (Rustin).

Another development worthy of discussion is Visual Effects. Earlier this week, the top 20 hopefuls were announced and Oppenheimer was nowhere to be found. I’d previously had it ranked #1 in the race, but it drops from contention.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)

6. Maestro (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+1)

9. American Fiction (PR: 11) (+2)

10. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-4)

Other Possibilities:

11. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (-1)

12. May December (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 12) (-1)

14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)

15. Air (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

All of Us Strangers

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)

8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)

9. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-3)

10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Viola Davis, Air

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4 (E)

5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (E)

8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)

9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Colman Domingo, The Color Purple

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

7. Air (PR: 7) (E)

8. Saltburn (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Fair Play (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rustin

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Taste of Things (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (-1)

7. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 10) (+3)

8. About Dry Grasses (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tótem (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Promised Land (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Animated Feautre

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nimona (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Peasants (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wish (PR: 7) (E)

8. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 8) (E)

9. Suzume (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Robot Dreams

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 2) (E)

3 The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Four Daughters (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Deepest Breath (PR: Not Ranked)

9. American Symphony (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Every Body

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)

7. El Conde (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Barbie

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. Chevalier (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Maestro (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barbie (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Past Lives (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Killer (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Air (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Nyad (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barbie (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Golda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Priscilla

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elemental (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Society of the Snow (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-5)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+3)

4. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (-3)

7. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 5) (-2)

8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Joan Still” from Theater Camp

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Napoleon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wonka (PR: 9) (E)

10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Zone of Interest

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ferrari (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Napoleon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Killer (PR: 8) (E)

9. Society of the Snow (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Creator (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Godzilla Minus One (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Oppenheimer

Society of the Snow

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Poor Things

9 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

Maestro

6 Nominations

The Color Purple, The Zone of Interest

5 Nominations

The Holdovers

3 Nominations

American Fiction, Past Lives

2 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, May December, Napoleon, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Nimona, Nyad, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge, Wish

81st Golden Globe Awards Nominations Predictions

Prior to its January 7th airing on CBS and Paramount+, nominations for the 81st Golden Globe Awards are out Monday, December 11th. After years of airing on NBC, the ceremony has found a new home after the controversies of the last few years involving the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.

That’s not the only change with the program. The categories we are used to have expanded from five to six nominees. And a new competition – Cinematic and Box Office Achievement – comes with eight contenders. We could safely coin this the “Barbenheimer” race unless Taylor Swift has something to say about that.

As always, there’s some controversy in the differentiation between Drama and Musical/Comedy placements. Netflix decided to campaign Todd Haynes’s May December in the latter even though Drama seems more appropriate. It could help it get more noms.

Here we go with my picks in each cinematic derby and I’ll give you an alternate with each.

Motion Picture (Drama)

Anatomy of a Fall

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: Saltburn

Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)

American Fiction

Barbie

The Color Purple

The Holdovers

May December

Poor Things

Alternate: Air

Film Director

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Celine Song, Past Lives

Alternate: Alexander Payne, The Holdovers

Actress (Film Drama)

Annette Bening, Nyad

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Greta Lee, Past Lives

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Cailee Spaney, Priscilla

Alternate: Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One

Actor (Film Drama)

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Colman Domingo, Rustin

Barry Keoghan, Saltburn

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers

Alternate: Zac Efron, The Iron Claw

Actress (Musical/Comedy)

Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple

Abby Ryder Fortson, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, You Hurt My Feelings

Natalie Portman, May December

Margot Robbie, Barbie

Emma Stone, Poor Things

Alternate: Jennifer Lawrence, No Hard Feelings

Actor (Musical/Comedy)

Gael Garcia Bernal, Cassandro

Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario

Timothee Chalamet, Wonka

Matt Damon, Air

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Alternate: Jamie Foxx, The Burial

Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Jodie Foster, Nyad

Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple

Julianne Moore, May December

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Alternate: Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Supporting Actor

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Charles Melton, May December

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers

Alternate: Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

Best Screenplay

American Fiction

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Alternate: May December

Cinematic and Box Office Achievment

Barbie

Elemental

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

John Wick: Chapter 4

Oppenheimer

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

Alternate: The Little Mermaid

Motion Picture (Non-English Language)

Anatomy of a Fall

Perfect Days

Society of the Snow

The Taste of Things

The Teachers’ Lounge

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: The Promised Land

Motion Picture (Animated)

The Boy and the Heron

Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Elemental

Nimona

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Alternate: Wish

Original Score

The Boy and the Heron

Killers of the Flower Moon

Nyad

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Alternate: Elemental

Original Song

“Dance the Night” from Barbie

“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

“Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple

“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot

“A World of Your Own” from Wonka

Alternate: “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

9 Nominations

Barbie

8 Nominations

Oppenheimer

7 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

6 Nominations

Poor Things

5 Nominations

The Color Purple, The Holdovers

4 Nominations

Maestro, May December

3 Nominations

American Fiction, Nyad, Past Lives, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

2 Nominations

The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Wonka, The Zone of Interest

1 Nomination

Air, All of Us Strangers, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Cassandro, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Dream Scenario, Flamin’ Hot, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, John Wick: Chapter 4, Nimona, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Rustin, Saltburn, Society of the Snow, The Taste of Things, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, The Teachers’ Lounge, You Hurt My Feelings

NBR Shoots for the Moon

Just as the New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC) honored Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon as their best of 2023, the National Board of Review followed suit today. Like the Big Apple’s group, it’s not one of the more predictive precursors for Oscar glory. However, there are plenty of nominees solidifying themselves for at least making the cut with each victory.

That logic definitely applies to Killers, which took Best Film, Director, and Actress (Lily Gladstone). It’s pretty much of a lock for inclusion in the Academy’s Best Picture 10. Yet a win is far from guaranteed. I currently have it behind Oppenheimer. The last NBR Film recipient that took BP at the Oscars is 2018’s Green Book. Before that it was 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire.

The other big winner at NBR is The Holdovers. It’s the pick for Actor (Paul Giamatti), Supporting Actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph), and Original Screenplay. I’m really beginning to think Randolph is a serious threat to be the gold statue Supporting Actress selection (even though I’ve had her ranked second behind Danielle Brooks from The Color Purple).

Mark Ruffalo is your Supporting Actor for Poor Things while Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse took the Animated prize, Anatomy of a Fall (ineligible for International Feature Film at the Oscars) is the International Film here, and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie won Documentary.

It’s actually rare that all four acting recipients from NBR make the Oscar quintet in their respective races. I will say that Gladstone, Giamatti, Randolph, and Ruffalo all stand excellent chances.

Lastly, this Board selects other Top Films beyond their #1. This year the others are (alphabetically) Barbie, The Boy and the Heron, Ferrari, The Holdovers, The Iron Claw, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, and Poor Things. There’s recently been about a 6-7 match correlation with Oscar. Killers is almost certainly in. The same can be said (with some of these more certain that others) for Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, and Poor Things. Heron and Ferrari are, at best, long shots. The Iron Claw is worth keeping an eye on for a late push.

And please continue to keep an eye on the blog for all speculation as Oscar nominations approach!

2023 Oscar Predictions: November 29th Edition

As November comes to a close, my updated Oscar predictions reflect one change in Best Picture as Anatomy of a Fall is back in with American Fiction out. Truth be told, I keep going back and forth on which film misses between Fall, Fiction, and The Zone of Interest at press time.

We also have a revolving door in the five spot in Supporting Actress and, for the first time, I’m going with a surprise pick in Rachel McAdams for Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.

The rest of the major races stay intact though I now have Oppenheimer leading in noms overall over Poor Things (which I had ahead in mid November). In fact, Poor Things now ranks third in the tally behind Killers of the Flower Moon.

You can read all the movement below as we approach December with all kinds of precursor indications coming our way!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)

6. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)

7. Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. American Fiction (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Air (PR: 12) (-1)

14. The Iron Claw (PR: 15) (+1)

15. All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saltburn

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (E)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)

8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

7. Air (PR: 7) (E)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Saltburn (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Fair Play

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Taste of Things (PR: 9) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (E)

5. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (-1)

7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Promised Land (PR: 8) (E)

9. Tótem (PR: Not Ranked)

10. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Monk and the Gun

The Peasants

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nimona (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Peasants (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wish (PR: 7) (E)

8. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 8) (E)

9. Robot Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Suzume

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 2) (E)

3. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 5) (+2)

4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Four Daughters (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 3) (-3)

7. American Symphony (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Every Body (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Deepest Breath

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Barbie (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saltburn

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Priscilla (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Chevalier (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Wonka

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Air (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Past Lives (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Barbie (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Killer (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Color Purple

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nyad (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Golda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-5)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Elemental (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Carmen

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 7) (+3)

5. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

“Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+3)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Saltburn

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+4)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Ferrari (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Killer (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Barbie

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Creator (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-1)

7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (E)

8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wonka

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

13 Nominations

Oppenheimer

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

11 Nominations

Poor Things

9 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

The Color Purple, Maestro

6 Nominations

The Zone of Interest

5 Nominations

The Holdovers

3 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives

2 Nominations

Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, May December, Rustin

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, American Fiction, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, The Eternal Memory, Ferrari, Four Daughters, Napoleon, Nimona, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge, Wish

Best Picture 2005: The Expanded Ten

Previously on the blog, I completed a series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 for the past couple of years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned 14 posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them!

Now my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there was a set five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.

This series will project the other five that I believe would’ve gotten in. I’ve already covered 2006-08 and you can peruse my posts on them here:

Best Picture 2006: The Expanded Ten
Best Picture 2007: The Expanded Ten
Best Picture 2008: The Expanded Ten

We do know half of the titles that would populate the ten. Those would be the ones that made the quintet 18 years back. During that 78th Oscar ceremony, Jack Nicholson made the surprise announcement that race relations drama Crash from Paul Haggis was the Best Picture winner. Of its seven total nominations, it also won Original Screenplay and Film Editing.

It stands as one of the bigger upsets in the Academy’s history as it took gold over the heavily favored Brokeback Mountain by Ang Lee. He won Director and the cowboy romance also received Adapted Screenplay and Original Score. The other three nominees: Bennett Miller’s Capote (for which Philip Seymour Hoffman took Best Actor), George Clooney’s Good Night, and Good Luck, and Steven Spielberg’s Munich.

2005 was the rare year where the Director nominees matched perfectly with BP so we can’t pluck out other movies from that competition. A look at the other categories do give us clues as to the other features that might’ve gotten in.

James Mangold’s Cash couple biopic Walk the Line landed Joaquin Phoenix a Best Actor nod and Reese Witherspoon the Actress statue. With a total of five mentions, a Golden Globe victory in the Musical/Comedy race, and a Critics Choice slot, it’s pretty safe to assume it makes the ten.

Same goes for The Constant Gardner from Fernando Meirelles. Rachel Weisz took Supporting Actress and it received three other noms in addition to Golden Globe and Critics Choice inclusions.

Another Critics Choicer nominee, Rob Marshall’s Memoirs of a Geisha got 6 tech nods and won 3 (Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume Design). I went back and forth on this one, but ultimately decided it probably makes the dance.

A fourth Critics Choice match goes to Ron Howard’s Cinderella Man. The boxing drama could be left off. It missed some key nods including Russell Crowe’s lead performance (Paul Giamatti was nominated for supporting) and screenplay. I think it might have just snuck in at the bottom of hopefuls.

With one picture left to plug in, there’s plenty of contenders. Hustle & Flow saw a surprise win (for Three 6 Mafia) in Original Song and Terrence Howard made the Actor five. Woody Allen’s Match Point had a sole nom in Original Screenplay, but made the Globes cut in Drama. Joe Wright’s Pride & Prejudice rendering saw Keira Knightley up in Actress in addition to three other mentions.

Ultimately my final choice came to this trio. Peter Jackson’s King Kong went 3 for 4 on its tech inclusions (Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects). However, it was generally considered a bit of a disappointment at the box office and with some critics. That said, I almost picked it.

Syriana by Stephen Gaghan gave George Clooney a Supporting Actor Oscar and was up for Original Screenplay. Yet it failed to see a Critics Choice or Globe BP nod. Nevertheless I almost picked it.

I chose to go with David Cronenberg’s A History of Violence. It received two noms for Supporting Actor (William Hurt) and Original Screenplay and was a critical darling. I went with the Academy honoring a work from the acclaimed director (especially since most of his efforts are far from Oscar friendly).

That means my expanded 2005 ten consists of:

A History of Violence

Brokeback Mountain

Capote

Cinderella Man

The Constant Gardner

Crash

Good Night, and Good Luck

Memoirs of a Geisha

Munich

Walk the Line

I’ll have 2004 up in short order!

2023 Oscar Predictions: November 18th Edition

It has been a lengthy three weeks since my last Oscar predictions and there’s developments to discuss. One of the final major awards puzzle pieces held its first screenings this week in The Color Purple. The musical based on the play that is based on the movie that is based on the novel has drawn encouraging reactions thus far. In fact, they’re positive enough that I’m glad I’ve never dropped it from my ten BP nominees. And I suspect I’ve made the right call in keeping Danielle Brooks placed at #1 in Supporting Actress for quite some time. Same goes for Taraji P. Henson getting recognized in that category. I also think Fantasia Barrino’s lead performance is a decent (if not slam dunk pick) for the crowded Best Actress race and that Colman Domingo could materialize in Supporting Actor. He may miss the cut and get the sole nod in Actor for Rustin (though the double nominee threat is real). Barrino joins my projected quintet in Actress with Greta Lee (Past Lives) falling by the wayside.

A24 has also screened true life wrestling drama The Iron Claw before its December 22nd bow. Word-of-mouth is also strong for this one. Yet I wonder if A24 will go all in on their campaign. If so, a BP nod is not totally out of the question. It’s listed in my top 15, but at the moment I believe it’s on the outside looking in and I have it listed nowhere else as a possibility.

Napoleon falls out of BP contention due to mixed reaction as does Joaquin Phoenix in Best Actor. Ridley Scott’s epic could still show up in some tech races. Another Thanksgiving release lessened its chances this week in Disney’s Wish. The animated musical also is garnering so-so buzz. The fact that it’s a Mouse House production could mean it makes the Animated Feature cut. For now, it moves out of the high five.

While it has been a little while since my previous update, Picture, Director, and Supporting Actor have the same nominees (albeit with some movement in the rankings). In Actor, Colman Domingo as Rustin is back in over Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction). Sandra Hüller becomes my rare double contender prediction as I now have her in Supporting Actress (taking out Viola Davis in Air).

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+1)

6. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Maestro (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Past Lives (PR: 7) (-2)

10. American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (E)

12. Air (PR: 12) (E)

13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Saltburn (PR: 15) (+1)

15. The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Napoleon

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 7) (E)

8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)

9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)

8. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-1)

9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

7. Air (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)

9. Fair Play (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Taste of Things (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Priscilla

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5 (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)

7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Promised Land (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Monk and the Gun (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Peasants (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Peasants (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Nimona (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Wish (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 8) (E)

9. Suzume (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 2) (E)

3. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Four Daughters (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. American Symphony (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Eternal Memory (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Deepest Breath (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Our Body (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Orlando, My Political Biography

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Poor Things (PR: 2) (-2)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Saltburn (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Napoleon (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Priscilla (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Chevalier (PR: 7) (E)

8. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wonka (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Air (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Killer (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Past Lives (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Zone of Interest

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Poor Things (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Priscilla (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Nyad (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Golda (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-5)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Elemental (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+4)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Carmen (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (+1)

2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (+2)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 5) (+2)

4. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 6) (+2)

5. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (-4) – **previously listed at #1 as TBD song

Other Possibilities:

6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 9) (+3)

7. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (-4)

8. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Steal the Show” from Elemental

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+3)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Maestro (PR: 7) (+4)

4. The Killer (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Ferrari (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Creator

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 6) (E)

7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Wonka (PR: 9) (-1)

That adds up to these pictures generating these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Poor Things

11 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

9 Nominations

Barbie, The Color Purple

6 Nominations

Maestro

5 Nominations

The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest

4 Nominations

Past Lives

2 Nominations

American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, May December, Priscilla, Rustin

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Four Daughters, The Killer, Napoleon, Nimona, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Teachers’ Lounge

The Holdovers Box Office Prediction

After playing the festival circuit at Telluride and Toronto and generating impressive grosses in limited release, The Holdovers expands on November 10th. The dramedy reunites director Alexander Payne with his Sideways lead Paul Giamatti. The supporting cast includes Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dominic Sessa, and Carrie Preston.

With a 96% Rotten Tomatoes score, the pic is hoping to score a handful of nominations come Oscar time. This past weekend, The Holdovers posted an estimated $600,000 on 64 screens for a nearly $10k venue average.

A theater count in the 800 range is expected this frame. If The Holdovers can manage an average of around $4k, that would give it around $3 million and that’s what I’m counting on.

The Holdovers opening weekend expansion prediction: $3 million

For my The Marvels prediction, click here:

The Marvels Box Office Prediction

For my Journey to Bethlehem prediction, click here:

Journey to Bethlehem Box Office Prediction

2023 Oscar Predictions: October 29th Edition

As October closes out, my first predictions in two weeks sees changes with a few of the major categories along with a significant ranking alteration. American Fiction is back in the projected ten for Best Picture with Anatomy of a Fall falling to 11th. Jeffrey Wright from Fiction also gets into the quintet for Actor at the expense of Colman Domingo in Rustin.

Greta Lee returns to the Actress lineup with Margot Robbie (Barbie) out while Viola Davis (Air) is back in the Supporting Actress derby with Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) on the outside looking in. Charles Melton (May December) is in Supporting Actor with Willem Dafoe (Poor Things) now in sixth.

As for that ranking alteration, Bradley Cooper (Maestro) is in 1st position in Actor for the first time with Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) now runner-up.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Maestro (PR: 6) (+1)

6. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (E)

10. American Fiction (PR: 12) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Air (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Napoleon (PR: 13 (E)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Saltburn (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 7) (E)

8. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (E)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)

10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (E)

10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Adam Driver, Ferrari

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Rosamund Pike, Saltburn

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)

10. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Air (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

7. May December (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)

9. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (E)

10. Fair Play (PR: 10) (E)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Fiction (PR: 6) (+2)

5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Taste of Things (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Priscilla (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Hit Man

Origin

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 8) (+2)

7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Peasants (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Promised Land (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Monk and the Gun (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Settlers

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Elemental (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Peasants (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nimona (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Suzume (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 2) (E)

3. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 5) (+2)

4. American Symphony (PR: Not Ranked)

5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Four Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Deepest Breath (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Every Body

Wild Life

It Ain’t Over

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+2)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Past Lives

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Chevalier (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Wonka (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Priscilla (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Maestro

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barbie (PR: 8) (+2)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Air (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Past Lives

Ferrari

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Maestro (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Golda (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nyad (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Napoleon

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)

7. Carmen (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Killer (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Napoleon

The Boy and the Heron

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 5) (+2)

4. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 8) (+2)

7. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 10) (E)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Barbie (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)

7. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Saltburn (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (E)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Ferrari (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Barbie

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Wonka (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Barbie

That shakes out to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Poor Things

11 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

9 Nominations

Barbie

8 Nominations

The Color Purple

6 Nominations

Maestro

5 Nominations

The Holdovers

4 Nominations

Past Lives, The Zone of Interest

3 Nominations

American Fiction, Napoleon

2 Nominations

Air, Anatomy of a Fall, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, American Symphony, Asteroid City, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, May December, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rustin, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge

2023 Oscar Predictions: October 15th Edition

My mid-October Oscar predictions has Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things leading the nominations tally with an impressive 12 apiece!

Poor Things rises partly because I’m putting Willem Dafoe back in my projected Supporting Actor quintet alongside his costar Mark Ruffalo. In Supporting Actress, I’ve elevated Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) over Viola Davis (Air). This is Cruz’s first appearance in my top five.

Margot Robbie (Barbie) returns to my Actress five with Greta Lee (Past Lives) on the outside looking in. You can peruse all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+3)

6. Maestro (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Past Lives (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Air (PR: 12) (+1)

12. American Fiction (PR: 1) (-1)

13. Napoleon (PR: 13) (E)

14. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Origin

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)

7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)

10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Barry Koeghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)

5. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

America Ferrera, Barbie

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (-1)

7. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon

Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

7. Air (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Saltburn (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Fair Play (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. American Fiction (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Origin (PR: 9) (E)

10. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Promised Land (PR: 10) (+4)

7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Settlers (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Monk and the Gun (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Peasants

The Delinquents

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elemental (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nimona (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Peasants (PR: 8) (E)

9. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Suzume (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 2) (E)

3. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Every Body (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wild Life (PR: Not Ranked)

10. It Ain’t Over (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Deepest Breath

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Past Lives (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ferrari

The Killer

Barbie

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Barbie (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Chevalier (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Priscilla (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Wonka (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Ferrari (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Barbie (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Air (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Anatomy of a Fall

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Priscilla (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Golda (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Nyad (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Beau Is Afraid

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Elemental (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Killer (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ferrari

Barbie

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ferrari (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Napoleon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 10) (+4)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Barbie (PR: 8) (E)

9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-4)

10. The Creator (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Creator (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Poor Things (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Barbie (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Killers of the Flower Moon

That gives us a tally for these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

10 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

The Color Purple

5 Nominations

The Holdovers, Maestro, The Zone of Interest

4 Nominations

Past Lives

3 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon

2 Nominations

Elemental, Ferrari, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Rustin, Wish

1 Nominations

20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Rebel Moon, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge