Tag: Paul Dano

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: January 1st Edition

Happy New Year, loyal blog readers!!

We begin 2016 with my weekly Oscar predictions leading up to nominations being announced on January 14th. This will mean I’ll have two more posts prognosticating on what and who will be nominated (one on Friday the 8th and one likely the day before the announcements).

A couple of quick notes on various races:

  • There is considerable speculation as to whether Rooney Mara will be nominated in the category of Best Actress or Supporting Actress for her work in Carol. So far, I’ve speculated a nomination for her in the latter. Today, I am changing it to the former.
  • Same goes for Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl, but I’m keeping her in Supporting Actress for now. There is also speculation that her nod could come for Ex Machina and not Danish Girl.
  • The historic box office performance of Star Wars: The Force Awakens is increasing its shot at a Best Picture nomination. I’ve still got it on the outside looking in, but don’t be shocked if that changes in the coming days.

And with that, here’s my weekly predictions that list all possibilities for each race and how they’ve fluctuated since Christmas Day:

Best Picture

  1. Spotlight (No Change)
  2. Room (No Change)
  3. The Big Short (+2)
  4. Mad Max: Fury Road (+2)
  5. Carol (-2)
  6. The Martian (+1)
  7. The Revenant (-3)
  8. Brooklyn (No Change)
  9. Bridge of Spies (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+8)

11. Inside Out (-2)

12. The Hateful Eight (No Change)

13. Straight Outta Compton (-2)

14. Beasts of No Nation (-1)

15. Son of Saul (+2)

16. Steve Jobs (No Change)

17. Creed (-2)

18. Sicario (+1)

19. Trumbo (-5)

20. The Danish Girl (No Change)

21. Anomalisa (Previously Unranked)

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

http://youtu.be/tb_WgKDqPsE

Best Director

  1. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (No Change)
  2. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  3. Ridley Scott, The Martian (+1)
  4. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (-1)
  5. Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam McKay, The Big Short (+1)

7. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)

8. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (No Change)

9. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (No Change)

10. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (+3)

11. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+4)

12. John Crowley, Brooklyn (-2)

13. Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation (-2)

14. Ryan Coogler, Creed (-2)

DROPPED OUT: F. Gary Gray, Straight Outta Compton

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Actor

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
  2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (No Change)
  3. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (No Change)
  4. Matt Damon, The Martian (+1)
  5. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Johnny Depp, Black Mass (No Change)

7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)

8. Steve Carell, The Big Short (No Change)

9. Michael Caine, Youth (+1)

10. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (-1)

11. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (No Change)

12. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies (No Change)

13. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (No Change)

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Actress

  1. Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
  2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
  3. Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
  4. Rooney Mara, Carol (Previously Unranked In This Category)
  5. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (-1)

7. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (-1)

8. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You In My Dreams (-1)

9. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (No Change)

DROPPED OUT: Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Mara. Out: Rampling.

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  2. Sylvester Stallone, Creed (No Change)
  3. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (No Change)
  4. Christian Bale, The Big Short (No Change)
  5. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Keaton, Spotlight (-1)

7. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (+1)

8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (+1)

9. Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (-2)

10. Jacob Tremblay, Room (+1)

11. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (-1)

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Shannon. Out: Keaton.

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (+3)
  2. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (+1)
  3. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (-2)
  4. Helen Mirren, Trumbo (+1)
  5. Joan Allen, Room (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (+1)

7. Jane Fonda, Youth (-1)

8. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina (Previously Unranked)

9. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (-1)

10. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (No Change)

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Allen. Out: Rooney Mara (moved to Best Actress)

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Spotlight (No Change)
  2. Inside Out (No Change)
  3. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
  4. Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  5. Ex Machina (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Straight Outta Compton (No Change)

7. Love and Mercy (+2)

8. 99 Homes (-1)

9. Son of Saul (-1)

10. Sicario (No Change)

11. Joy (Previously Unranked)

DROPPED OUT: Youth

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. The Big Short (+1)
  2. Room (+1)
  3. Carol (-2)
  4. Steve Jobs (No Change)
  5. Brooklyn (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Martian (No Change)

7. The Revenant (+2)

8. Beasts of No Nation (-1)

9. Anomalisa (+1)

10. Trumbo (-2)

11. Creed (+2)

12. The Danish Girl (No Change)

13. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Animated Feature

  1. Inside Out (No Change)
  2. Anomalisa (No Change)
  3. Shaun the Sheep Movie (+1)
  4. The Peanuts Movie (+1)
  5. Kahlil Gabran’s The Prophet (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Good Dinosaur (No Change)

7. When Marnie Was There (No Change)

8. Minions (Previously Unranked)

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Cinematography

  1. The Revenant (No Change)
  2. The Hateful Eight (+1)
  3. Mad Max: Fury Road (-1)
  4. Sicario (No Change)
  5. Bridge of Spies (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Martian (No Change)

7. Son of Saul (-2)

8. Carol (-1)

9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Previously Unranked)

DROPPED OUT: In the Heart of the Sea

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Bridge of Spies. Out: Son of Saul.

http://youtu.be/drMcGCTm55s

Best Editing

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
  2. The Revenant (+2)
  3. Spotlight (-2)
  4. The Martian (+2)
  5. Steve Jobs (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sicario (Previously Unranked)

7. The Big Short (-4)

8. Bridge of Spies (-1)

9. The Hateful Eight (-1)

10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)

11. Carol (Previously Unranked)

12. Room (-3)

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Martian. Out: The Big Short.

Best Production Design

  1. Carol (No Change)
  2. The Danish Girl (No Change)
  3. Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  4. Bridge of Spies (+1)
  5. The Hateful Eight (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cinderella (No Change)

7. Brooklyn (-3)

8. The Revenant (+1)

9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)

10. Far from the Madding Crowd (Previously Unranked)

11. MacBeth (-1)

DROPPED OUT: The Martian

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Hateful Eight. Out: Brooklyn.

http://youtu.be/H4z7Px68ywk

Best Costume Design

  1. Carol (+1)
  2. The Danish Girl (-1)
  3. Cinderella (No Change)
  4. Brooklyn (No Change)
  5. Far from the Madding Crowd (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Hateful Eight (+1)

7. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)

8. MacBeth (+1)

9. The Revenant (+1)

10. Suffragette (-4)

11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Previously Unranked)

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Far from the Madding Crowd. Out: Mad Max: Fury Road.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  2. The Revenant (+4)
  3. Black Mass (+1)

Other Possibilities:

4. Concussion (Previously Unranked)

5. Mr. Holmes (+2)

6. The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared (Previously Unranked)

7. Legend (Previously Unranked)

DROPPED OUT: The Danish Girl, Carol, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (these top seven finalists indicated above have now been announced)

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Revenant, Black Mass. OUT: The Danish Girl, Carol

Best Sound Mixing

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
  3. The Revenant (No Change)
  4. The Martian (No Change)
  5. Sicario (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Hateful Eight (-1)

7. In the Heart of the Sea (No Change)

8. Jurassic World (No Change)

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Sicario. Out: The Hateful Eight.

Best Sound Editing

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  2. The Revenant (No Change)
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+1)
  4. The Martian (-1)
  5. In the Heart of the Sea (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sicario (No Change)

7. The Hateful Eight (No Change)

8. Jurassic World (No Change)

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes.

Best Visual Effects

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
  2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
  3. The Martian (No Change)
  4. Jurassic World (No Change)
  5. Ex Machina (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. In the Heart of the Sea (-1)

7. The Walk (-1)

8. Everest (Previously Unranked)

9. The Revenant (-2)

WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Ex Machina. Out: In the Heart of the Sea.

Best Original Score

  1. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
  2. Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  3. Carol (+1)
  4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
  5. The Danish Girl (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spotlight (No Change)

7. Steve Jobs (+1)

8. Inside Out (+1)

9. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)

10. The Revenant (Previously Unranked)

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

Best Original Song

  1. “Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground (No Change)
  2. “See You Again” from Furious 7 (+1)
  3. “So Long” from Concussion (-1)
  4. “Simple Song #3” from Youth (+1)
  5. “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre (+1)

7. “Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)

DROPPED OUT: “I’ll See You In My Dreams” from I’ll See You in My Dreams

WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes

And there you have it – my latest Oscar predictions and first post of 2016!

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 18th Edition

We arrive at my weekly Oscar predictions and a new wrinkle has been added. I’m predicting every category with the exception of Foreign and Documentary (those will eventually be added).

As with last week, I’ll ranking according to my feelings on likelihood of the films and performers being nominated and let you know what’s changed since last week. The pluses and minuses and no changes indicated their ranking from last week to this week.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

  1. Spotlight (No Change)
  2. The Revenant (No Change)
  3. Room (No Change)
  4. Brooklyn (+3)
  5. Carol (-1)
  6. The Martian (No Change)
  7. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)
  8. Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  9. The Big Short (+2)

Other Possibilities:

10. Inside Out (No Change)

11. The Hateful Eight (-2)

12. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+11)

13. Trumbo (+6)

14. Son of Saul (+3)

15. The Danish Girl (+1)

16. Sicario (+5)

17. Beasts of No Nation (-3)

18. Steve Jobs (-5)

19. Straight Outta Compton (-4)

20. Creed (-8)

21. Joy (-2)

22. Love and Mercy (-1)

23. Anomalisa (-6)

What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: The Big Short. OUT: The Hateful Eight.

Best Director

  1. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (No Change)
  2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (No Change)
  3. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  4. Ridley Scott, The Martian (No Change)
  5. Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (+1)

7. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)

8. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+9)

9. John Crowley, Brooklyn (No Change)

10. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (-2)

11. Adam McKay, The Big Short (+1)

12. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (+1)

13. Jay Roach, Trumbo (Previously Not Ranked)

14. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl (+2)

15. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs (-1)

16. Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation (-5)

17. Ryan Coogler, Creed (-7)

DROPPED OUT: David O. Russell, Joy

What’s Changed Since Last Week: NO CHANGES

Best Actor

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
  2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (+1)
  3. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (-1)
  4. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (+1)
  5. Johnny Depp, Black Mass (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Martian (No Change)

7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)

8. Michael Caine, Youth (+3)

9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (No Change)

10. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies (No Change)

11. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (+2)

12. Steve Carell, The Big Short (No Change)

13. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (-5)

What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes

Best Actress

  1. Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
  2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
  3. Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
  4. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (No Change)
  5. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)

7. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (+2)

8. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams (-2)

9. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back (-1)

10. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van (No Change)

11. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette (+1)

12. Lily Tomlin, Grandma (-1)

What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  2. Michael Keaton, Spotlight (+1)
  3. Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (+1)
  4. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (+1)
  5. Sylvester Stallone, Creed (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (+4)

7. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (-1)

8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (No Change)

9. Christian Bale, The Big Short (-2)

10. Jacob Tremblay, Room (+1)

11. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (-2)

What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (No Change)
  2. Rooney Mara, Carol (No Change)
  3. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (No Change)
  4. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (No Change)
  5. Helen Mirren, Trumbo (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (+4)

7. Jane Fonda, Youth (-2)

8. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (-2)

9. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (No Change)

10. Joan Allen, Room (-2)

DROPPED OUT: Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina

What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Helen Mirren, OUT: Jane Fonda.

Best Original Screenplay 

  1. Spotlight (No Change)
  2. Inside Out (+1)
  3. The Hateful Eight (-1)
  4. Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  5. Love and Mercy (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Son of Saul (-1)

7. Mad Max: Fury Road (Previously Not Ranked)

8. 99 Homes (No Change)

9. Sicario (+1)

10. Ex Machina (+1)

11. Straight Outta Compton (-4)

12. Youth (Previously Not Ranked)

13. Joy (-4)

14. Trainwreck (-2)

What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Love and Mercy. OUT: Son of Saul.

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Room (+2)
  2. Brooklyn (+2)
  3. Carol (-2)
  4. The Big Short (+1)
  5. Steve Jobs (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Martian (+1)

7. Trumbo (+3)

8. The Revenant (-2)

9. Beasts of No Nation (No Change)

10. Anomalisa (-2)

11. The Danish Girl (+1)

DROPPED OUT: Creed

What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes

Best Animated Feature (First Time Predictions)

  1. Inside Out
  2. Anomalisa
  3. Kahlil Gobran’s The Prophet
  4. Shaun the Sheep Movie
  5. The Good Dinosaur

Other Possibilities:

6. The Peanuts Movie

7. When Marnie Was There

8. Home

Best Cinematography (First Time Predictions)

  1. The Hateful Eight
  2. The Revenant
  3. Mad Max: Fury Road
  4. The Martian
  5. Sicario

Other Possibilities:

6. Carol

7. Bridge of Spies

8. The Danish Girl

Best Production Design (First Time Predictions)

  1. Carol
  2. The Danish Girl
  3. Mad Max: Fury Road
  4. Cinderella
  5. Bridge of Spies

Other Possibilities:

6. The Revenant

7. Brooklyn

8. The Martian

9. The Hateful Eight

10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

11. MacBeth

Best Editing (First Time Predictions)

  1. Spotlight
  2. Mad Max: Fury Road
  3. The Revenant
  4. The Big Short
  5. Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

6. The Hateful Eight

7. The Martian

8. Bridge of Spies

9. Room

Best Costume Design (First Time Predictions)

  1. Carol
  2. Cinderella
  3. Brooklyn
  4. The Danish Girl
  5. Far from the Madding Crowd

Other Possibilities:

6. Mad Max: Fury Road

7. Suffragette

8. Trumbo

9. The Hateful Eight

10. MacBeth

Best Makeup and Hairstyling (First Time Predictions)

  1. The Danish Girl
  2. Carol
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Other Possibilities:

4. Mad Max: Fury Road

5. Black Mass

6. Pan

7. The Hateful Eight

8. The Revenant

Best Visual Effects (First Time Predictions)

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. The Martian
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  4. Jurassic World
  5. The Walk

Other Possibilities:

6. The Revenant

7. In the Heart of the Sea

8. Ex Machina

Best Sound Mixing (First Time Predictions)

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. The Martian
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  4. The Revenant
  5. Sicario

Other Possibilities:

6. Jurassic World

7. The Hateful Eight

8. In the Heart of the Sea

Best Sound Editing (First Time Predictions)

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. The Revenant
  3. The Martian
  4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  5. In the Heart of the Sea

Other Possibilities:

6. Sicario

7. The Hateful Eight

8. Jurassic World

Best Original Score (First Time Predictions)

  1. The Hateful Eight
  2. Carol
  3. Spotlight
  4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  5. The Danish Girl

Other Possibilities:

6. The Revenant

7. Bridge of Spies

8. Sicario

9. Brooklyn

10. Mad Max: Fury Road

11. Southpaw

Best Original Song (First Time Predictions)

  1. “Til It Happens To You” from The Hunting Ground
  2. “See You Again” from Furious 7
  3. “Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey
  4. “Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre
  5. “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey

Other Possibilities:

6. “Simple Song #3” from Youth

7. “One Kind of Love” from Love and Mercy

8. “So Long” from Concussion

Whew! Those predictions reflect a current belief of the following films garnering nominations with number included:

9 Nominations

Carol

8 Nominations

Mad Max: Fury Road

7 Nominations

The Revenant

6 Nominations

The Danish Girl, The Martian, Spotlight

5 Nominations

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

4 Nominations

Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, The Hateful Eight, Steve Jobs

3 Nominations

The Big Short, Room

2 Nominations

Cinderella, Fifty Shades of Grey, Inside Out, Love and Mercy, Sicario, Trumbo

1 Nomination

Anomalisa, Beasts of No Nation, Black Mass, Creed, Far from the Madding Crowd, 45 Years, Furious 7, The Good Dinosaur, The Hunting Ground, In the Heat of the Sea, Joy, Jurassic World, Kahlil Gabron’s The Prophet, Shaun the Sheep Movie, Spectre, The Walk

 

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 11 Edition

And now we’ve arrived at my weekly Oscar predictions for the eight biggest categories and yes, things have changed in one week. Most notably, many critics precursor awards have been announced and just in the last 48 hours, nominations for the SAG and Golden Globe awards have been revealed. The past week’s activity has given a huge boost to Mad Max: Fury Road‘s inclusion into the Best Picture race and I’m including it for the first time. Other pics that have received some momentum: Carol, Trumbo (in acting races), and possibly The Big Short.

For the first time, I’m ceasing to list my predicted nominees and other possibilities alphabetically. We are now switching to where I’m listing according to my thoughts on their probability of being nominated.

And here we go, my friends:

Best Picture

  1. Spotlight
  2. The Revenant
  3. Room
  4. Carol
  5. Mad Max: Fury Road
  6. The Martian
  7. Brooklyn
  8. Bridge of Spies
  9. The Hateful Eight

Other Possibilities:

10. Inside Out

11. The Big Short

12. Creed

13. Steve Jobs

14. Beasts of No Nation

15. Straight Outta Compton

16. The Danish Girl

17. Son of Saul

18. Anomalisa

19. Trumbo

20. Joy

21. Sicario

22. Love and Mercy

23. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Mad Max: Fury Road, Out: Inside Out

Best Director

  1. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
  2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
  3. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
  4. Ridley Scott, The Martian
  5. Todd Haynes, Carol

Other Possibilities:

6. Lenny Abrahamson, Room

7. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

8. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

9. John Crowley, Brooklyn

10. Ryan Coogler, Creed

11. Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation

12. Adam McKay, The Big Short

13. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul

14. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

15. David O. Russell, Joy

16. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl

17. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Todd Haynes. Out: Lenny Abrahamson

Best Actor

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
  2. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
  3. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
  4. Johnny Depp, Black Mass
  5. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Martian

7. Will Smith, Concussion

8. Michael B. Jordan, Creed

9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes

10. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

11. Michael Caine, Youth

12. Steve Carell, The Big Short

13. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Bryan Cranston. Out: Matt Damon

Best Actress

  1. Brie Larson, Room
  2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
  3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
  4. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
  5. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Other Possibilities:

6. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams

7. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road

8. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back

9. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold

10. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van

11. Lily Tomlin, Grandma

12. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette

What’s Changed Since Last Week – NO CHANGES

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
  2. Sylvester Stallone, Creed
  3. Michael Keaton, Spotlight
  4. Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
  5. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Other Possibilities:

6. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

7. Christian Bale, The Big Short

8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant

9. Benicio del Toro, Sicario

10. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes

11. Jacob Tremblay, Room

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Paul Dano and Idris Elba. Out: Tom Hardy and Mark Ruffalo

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
  2. Rooney Mara, Carol
  3. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
  4. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
  5. Jane Fonda, Youth

Other Possibilities:

6. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria

7. Helen Mirren, Trumbo

8. Joan Allen, Room

9. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy

10. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

11. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina

What’s Changed Since Last Week: NO CHANGES

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Spotlight
  2. The Hateful Eight
  3. Inside Out
  4. Bridge of Spies
  5. Son of Saul

Other Possibilities:

6. Love and Mercy

7. Straight Outta Compton

8. 99 Homes

9. Joy

10. Sicario

11. Ex Machina

12. Trainwreck

What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Son of Saul. Out: Love and Mercy

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Carol
  2. Steve Jobs
  3. Room
  4. Brooklyn
  5. The Big Short

Other Possibilities:

6. The Revenant

7. The Martian

8. Anomalisa

9. Beasts of No Nation

10. Trumbo

11. Creed

12. The Danish Girl

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: The Big Short. Out: Anomalisa. 

And that’ll do it for this week’s predictions! Stay tuned for next Friday’s picks…

Los Angeles and Boston Shine a Spotlight

As critics organizations have started handing out their year end best of honors starting last week, two stories have stood in the forefront: the love fest enveloping Mad Max: Fury Road and the lack of attention to what many consider to be Oscar’s soft front runner. That would be Tom McCarthy’s Spotlight, the true life story of Boston Globe reporters exposing the Catholic Church priest sex abuse scandal. In fact, when Boston’s online critics organization bestowed their awards over the weekend, many assumed they would select Spotlight due to the geographic factor alone. They went with Max.

Today, however, two organizations from both coasts feted Spotlight with some love. It also finally got some hometown attention as the Boston Society of Film Critics named it their Best Picture. Just a few hours later, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association followed suit, making it a very good day for Spotlight.

Director McCarthy, on the other hand, was not picked by either coast in the Director race. Boston went with Todd Haynes for Carol and Los Angeles picked George Miller for Mad Max with Haynes as their runner up.

Truth be told, Spotlight winning the L.A. award may not be the greatest harbinger. In the 21st century, only one feature that won its top category went onto win the Oscar: 2009’s The Hurt Locker. The Los Angeles group is also known for making some out of left field choices in the acting races and they did with their supporting choices. Michael Shannon took Supporting Actor for the little seen 99 Homes and he’s not considered much of a threat in the Academy hunt. Runner up: Mark Rylance, whose chances are considerably better for Bridge of Spies. For Supporting Actress, they went with Alicia Vikander and she is widely expected to be nominated come Oscar time. Yet L.A. honored her for Ex Machina and not the film everyone expects her nomination for, The Danish Girl. Runner up: Kristen Stewart for Clouds of Sils Maria and Ms. Stewart won in Boston today. Her previously thought to be improbable Oscar nod keeps growing more probable everyday.

For Best Actress, it was a nice day for Charlotte Rampling, who won on both coasts. Her performance in little seen drama 45 Years has also been gaining attention and that could well translate into an Academy notice. L.A.’s runner up was Brooklyn’s Saoirse Ronan and her Oscar chances are excellent.

Los Angeles may have provided a lifeline to Michael Fassbender who took Actor for Steve Jobs. That film’s Oscar chances have taken a hit due to its dismal box office performance and some have begun speculating whether that factor could affect even Fassbender getting noticed. These critics awards help. The runner up was Geza Rohrig for foreign feature Son of Saul. In Boston, there was a tie between Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant and Paul Dano in Love and Mercy. DiCaprio is seen by many as the current Academy front runner while Dano is being campaigned for in Supporting Actor at the Oscars (where his inclusion is definitely a question mark).

As always, I’ll keep updating you on these precursors as they continue. Today’s bottom line: a true spotlight on Spotlight.

http://youtu.be/tb_WgKDqPsE

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 4 Edition

We are a bit over a month away from Oscar nominations coming out (January 14th) and it’s time to ramp up my predictions for what and whom will be nominated in the eight top races. I’m adding the two Screenplay categories (Original and Adapted) for the first time and the plan is to make weekly Oscar predictions each weekend until nominations come out. With each race, I’ll inform you what’s changed since the previous predictions post.

And with that, let’s get to predicting, shall we?

Best Picture

Bridge of Spies

Brooklyn

Carol

The Hateful Eight

Inside Out

The Martian

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

Other Possibilities:

Beasts of No Nation

The Big Short

Creed

The Danish Girl

Joy

Mad Max: Fury Road

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Steve Jobs

Straight Outta Compton

Changes Since Last Predictions: Bridge of Spies, Inside Out (IN), Joy, Steve Jobs (OUT)

Best Director

Lenny Abrahamson, Room

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Ridley Scott, The Martian

Other Possibilities:

Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

Ryan Coogler, Creed

John Crowley, Brooklyn

Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation

Todd Haynes, Carol

Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl

David O. Russell, Joy

Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

Changes Since Last Predictions: George Miller (IN), David O. Russell (OUT)

Best Actor

Matt Damon, The Martian

Johnny Depp, Black Mass

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Other Possibilities:

Michael Caine, Youth

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

Michael B. Jordan, Creed

Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes

Will Smith, Concussion

Changes Since Last Predictions: NONE

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Brie Larson, Room

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Other Possibilities:

Emily Blunt, Sicario

Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams

Carey Mulligan, Suffragette

Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van

Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road

Lily Tomlin, Grandma

Changes Since Last Predictions: Charlotte Rampling (IN), Blythe Danner (OUT)

Best Supporting Actor

Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Michael Keaton, Spotlight

Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Other Possibilities:

Christian Bale, The Big Short

Paul Dano, Love and Mercy

Benicio del Toro, Sicario

Joel Edgerton, Black Mass

Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Harvey Keitel, Youth

Jacob Tremblay, Room

Changes Since Last Predictions: Tom Hardy (IN), Idris Elba (OUT)

Best Supporting Actress

Jane Fonda, Youth

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Rooney Mara, Carol

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

Joan Allen, Room

Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy

Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

Kristin Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria

Julie Walters, Brooklyn

Changes Since Last Predictions: Jane Fonda (IN), Joan Allen (OUT)

Best Original Screenplay (first prediction in category)

Bridge of Spies

The Hateful Eight

Inside Out

Love and Mercy

Spotlight

Other Possibilities:

Joy

Sicario

Straight Outta Compton

Youth

Best Adapted Screenplay (first prediction in category)

Anomalisa

Brooklyn

Carol

Room

Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

The Big Short

Creed

The Martian

The Revenant

And there you have it – folks! The next update will come next weekend…

 

Todd’s Oscar Predictions: November Edition

We have arrived at my third round of Oscar predictions for the month of November. Some has changed, some has stayed the same. We’ll go through each of the six major categories one by one…

Let’s go!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This is the one category where I’ve made no changes, though any of the others listed as possibilities could find their way in. Most have Jane Fonda in the mix already, but I’m not quite there yet.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS  in SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Joan Allen, Room

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Rooney Mara, Carol

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy

Jane Fonda, Youth

Diane Ladd, Joy

Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

Isabella Rossellini, Joy

Julie Walters, Brooklyn

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

And here we have the most changes of any category! Coming out of nowhere last week was Sylvester Stallone’s acclaimed performance in Creed and as of now, here appears to be a strong contender for a nod and maybe even the win. I’m also including Mark Ruffalo and re-including Idris Elba. Falling out are Benicio del Toro, Robert De Niro, and Tom Hardy, though they all remain possibles. This category has a whole lot of potential nominees, but only five slots available.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS for SUPPORTING ACTOR

Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Michael Keaton, Spotlight

Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Other Possibilities:

Christian Bale, The Big Short

Bradley Cooper, Joy

Paul Dano, Love and Mercy

Benicio del Toro, Sicario

Robert De Niro, Joy

Joel Edgerton, Black Mass

Harrison Ford, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight

Harvey Keitel, Youth

Jason Mitchell, Straight Outta Compton

Kurt Russell, The Hateful Eight

Jacob Tremblay, Room

BEST ACTRESS

Four slots seem to be rather safe and have been for awhile: Cate Blanchett, Brie Larson, Jennifer Lawrence, and Saoirse Ronan. The fifth slot could legitimately be any of the others listed, but for now I’ve removed Carey Mulligan and replaced her with Blythe Danner.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS for ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams

Brie Larson, Room

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Other Possibilities:

Emily Blunt, Sicario

Carey Mulligan, Suffragette

Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van

Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road

Lily Tomlin, Grandma

BEST ACTOR

Only one change here as I currently feel the massive box office success of The Martian will get Matt Damon in. That takes Michael Caine out. Watch out for Will Smith, though, even though I don’t yet have him in the final  cut.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS for ACTOR

Matt Damon, The Martian

Johnny Depp, Black Mass

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Other Possibilities:

Michael Caine, Youth

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

Michael B. Jordan, Creed

Will Smith, Concussion

BEST DIRECTOR

Two changes here as I believe Danny Boyle may miss out and George Miller won’t be the wild card pick I predicted in October. This puts David O. Russell and Ridley Scott in.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS for DIRECTOR

Lenny Abrahamson, Room

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

David O. Russell, Joy

Ridley Scott, The Martian

Other Possibilities:

Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

Ryan Coogler, Creed

John Crowley, Brooklyn

Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation

Todd Haynes, Carol

Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

BEST PICTURE

I am still predicting nine nominees out of the possible five-ten and I’ve made two changes. I’m putting Carol back in the mix and The Martian in for the first time. That leaves out Bridge of Spies and The Danish Girl, though both remain major contenders. It’s worth noting that Steve Jobs, due to its disastrous box office performance, is not even close to a shoo in  and it could fall off.

TODD’s PREDICTIONS for PICTURE

Brooklyn

Carol

The Hateful Eight

Joy

The Martian

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

Beasts of No Nation

The Big Short

Bridge of Spies

Creed

The Danish Girl

Inside Out

In the Heart of the Sea

Mad Max: Fury Road

Sicario

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Straight Outta Comption

And that does it for my November Oscar predictions, folks! I’ll have the December predictions up shortly before Christmas…

Todd’s October Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

This evening on the blog, we continue forward with my second round of predictions (October edition) for Oscar nominees in the six major categories. Yesterday it was Supporting Actress and now we’re onto Supporting Actor. Since my initial round of predictions over a month and a half ago, much has changed.

In fact, only two of my predicted five nominees from that original prognostication post made the cut this time around: Tom Hardy in The Revenant and Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies. 

Gone are Bradley Cooper in David O. Russell’s Joy and I’ve substituted him for his supporting costar Robert De Niro. It’s worth noting that Russell’s last three films resulted in Supporting nods for Christian Bale in The Fighter (who won), De Niro in Silver Linings Playbook, and Cooper in American Hustle. In other words, Russell’s actors get nominated.

Also out are Harvey Keitel in Youth and Kurt Russell for The Hateful Eight, though both remain possibilities. Word around Hollywood is that Samuel L. Jackson is the standout male performance in Hateful Eight, though it’s unclear at this juncture whether he’ll be campaigned for in lead or supporting.

Joining the fray are Michael Keaton for Spotlight (whose nomination seems the most assured at this juncture) and Benicio del Toro for his acclaimed role in Sicario.

Other possibilities are plentiful, including Mark Ruffalo for Spotlight. If that were to occur and Keaton got recognized as well, it’d be the first time in 24 years that two actors from the same picture were nominated in this category. That was Bugsy when both Harvey Keitel and Ben Kingsley got nods.

This is a very fluid category, as evidenced by the major changes I’ve made since early September and we’ll see if it continues along its unpredictable path when my third round of predictions comes in November.

TODD’S BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS (ROUND TWO)

Benicio del Toro, Sicario

Robert De Niro, Joy

Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Michael Keaton, Spotlight

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Other Possibilities:

Bradley Cooper, Joy

Paul Dano, Love and Mercy

Joel Edgerton, Black Mass

Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight

Harvey Keitel, Youth

Seth Rogen, Steve Jobs

Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Kurt Russell, The Hateful Eight

Jacob Tremblay, Room

I’ll be back with Best Actress tomorrow!

2015 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

Continuing on with part two of my impossibly early Oscar predictions for 2015, we move to Best Supporting Actor. As I mentioned in the previous Supporting Actress piece, the predictions that I did at this time of the year in 2014 yielded two out of the five eventual nominees. Same goes for Supporting Actor last year, though it’s worth noting that last year in early September – I mentioned all five eventual nominees in the predicted or other possibilities category.

Unlike Supporting Actress, where Rooney Mara seems to be a shoo in for a nod in Carol, there are no obvious nominees in this category as of yet. One thing seems very possible – Quentin Tarantino has a knack for getting his supporting players attention and that may bode well for either Kurt Russell or Samuel L. Jackson. Right now, I’ll give Russell the edge.

David O. Russell is also known for his performers receiving Academy love and his December release Joy could mean nods for either Bradley Cooper or Robert De Niro. We’ll go with Mr. Cooper at press time.

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s The Revenant could garner plenty of attention and Tom Hardy could benefit from it in this category. It doesn’t hurt that he’s had a terrific year coming off the acclaimed Mad Max: Fury Road.

The Cannes Film Festival brought forth raves for the indie drama Youth and Harvey Keitel’s work in it while this fall’s Steven Spielberg drama Bridge of Spies seems to have a major supporting role for character actor Mark Rylance.

Danny Boyle’s Steve Jobs may mean nods for either Jeff Daniels or Seth Rogen. The Brian Wilson biopic Love and Mercy has both John Cusack and Paul Dano (depending on who the studio puts in which category). The Catholic Church sex scandal drama Spotlight has Michael Keaton and Mark Ruffalo. Past winner Benicio del Toro is said to be a standout in this September’s Sicario. And on and on.

In other words, lots of possibilities here and we shall see how it shakes out. For now:

TODD’S FIRST PREDICTIONS – BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Bradley Cooper, Joy

Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Harvey Keitel, Youth

Kurt Russell, The Hateful Eight

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Other Possibilities:

Steve Carell, Freeheld

John Cusack, Love and Mercy

Jeff Daniels, Steve Jobs

Paul Dano, Love and Mercy

Benicio del Toro, Sicario

Robert De Niro, Joy

Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight

Michael Keaton, Spotlight

Jude Law, Genius

Ewan McGregor, Miles Ahead

Seth Rogen, Steve Jobs

Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Billy Bob Thornton, Our Brand is Crisis

And that’ll do it for now! Best Actress coming up tomorrow…

You can peruse my Supporting Actress early picks here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/30/2015-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/