Schwarzenegger. Stallone. Squibb. At the Sundance Film Festival, we have a new seasoned action hero via Josh Margolin’s Thelma. It casts June Squibb, 94 years young, seeking revenge on a phone scammer. Costars include Fred Hechinger, the late Richard Roundtree, Parker Posey, Clark Gregg, and Malcolm McDowell.
Ms. Squibb, nominated in Supporting Actress for 2013’s Nebraska, is unsurprisingly drawing critical kudos for her work. The Sundance notices thus far have resulted in 100% Tomato meter. With the right amount of exposure, Thelma could be a sleeper.
Awards prospects are shakier. I’d say this is more of a Golden Globes post than an Academy Awards one. A shrewd marketing campaign might put Squibb in line for an Actress nod in Musical/Comedy at that show. It’s all about how visible (or not) this project becomes over the next few months and the level of competition that is TBD. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After a sizzling limited release last weekend, Ari Aster’s Beau Is Afraid expands to just under 1000 screens this Friday. A mix of many genres from the director known for horror pics Hereditary and Midsommar, Joaquin Phoenix stars as a paranoid man on odyssey while dealing with severe mommy issues. Costars include Patti LuPone, Nathan Lane, Amy Rogers, Kylie Rogers, Parker Posey, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Hayley Squires, Michael Gandolfini, Zoe Lister-Jones, and Richard Kind.
Some critics have been quite kind and it sits at 74% on Rotten Tomatoes. Others have called the three-hour opus a slog and predicted that general audiences are likely to have strong negative feelings. Beau scored $320,000 on just four screens days ago for a per theater average of $80k. It’s not surprising that it performed splendidly in NY/LA.
Beau faces more challenging prospects as it plays between the coasts. While it will probably have the third best screen average behind The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Evil Dead Rise (though the average could top that one), a gross between $4-5 million is likely.
Beau Is Afraid expanded opening weekend prediction: $4.4 million
A24 just hit the Oscar jackpot with Everything Everywhere All at Once and they have another multi-genre family opus opening in limited release this Friday. Beau Is Afraid is the third feature from writer/director Ari Aster behind acclaimed scary flicks Hereditary and Midsommar. With a $35 million budget, this is the biggest budget yet for the distributor. The three hour episodic mix of mommy issues, satire, and horror is headlined by Joaquin Phoenix with a supporting cast including stage legend Patti LuPone, Nathan Lane, Amy Ryan, Kylie Rogers, Parker Posey, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Hayley Squires, Michael Gandolfini, Zoe Lister-Jones, and Richard Kind.
The review embargo has just lifted and the reactions are all over the place. A 75% Rotten Tomatoes score is the number at this early stage. There are some recurring thoughts among the write-ups. One is that Aster takes gigantic swings. Some pay off. Some don’t. Another is that he’s perhaps given too much freedom this time and that the runtime is exceedingly long. There are comparisons to Charlie Kaufman and numerous mentions of Freud. You also get the impression that plenty of moviegoers will strongly dislike it. The word unhinged pops up in more than one synopsis.
It could be telling that Beau skipped the film festival circuit and opted for this spring release. A24 might suspect they don’t have an awards player (though you could correctly point out that Everything Everywhere came out around the same time). That said, they might opt to throw their serious campaigning behind the upcoming Past Lives (which drew raves at Sundance). While Phoenix is drawing praise for his performance, it could be a tall order for him to nab a Best Actor nod. Perhaps this fall’s Napoleon gives him a better shot. Some critics have singled out LuPone, but apparently her actual screen time is limited.
Beau will undoubtedly have its ardent supporters and fierce detractors. That could be a mix that doesn’t result in significant Oscar buzz. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
This past week, Richard Linklater’s latest pic Everybody Wants Some!! came out in limited release and critical reaction has been strong. This has become typical for its director, who previous effort Boyhood received much Oscar attention (eventually losing in 2014 to Birdman).
His new effort is described as a “spiritual sequel” to his 1993 acclaimed cult classic Dazed and Confused. The 1980s set comedy features a cast of unknowns, though that might not be for long. You’ll recall that the “unknowns” from the aforementioned Dazed included Ben Affleck, Matthew McConaughey, Joey Lauren Adams, Milla Jovovich, and Parker Posey. Everybody currently has a Rotten Tomatoes score of 90%.
So what does this all mean for its Oscar prospects? I would say this stands at outside shot at Best Picture and Director attention, though it’s probably unlikely. Where Some!! could shine is in the Original Screenplay category for Linklater. If so, it would mark his fourth nomination in the writing races (for Boyhood and Before Sunset and Before Midnight). That would appear to be its best chance at Academy attention several months down the road and it’d be foolish to count this celebrated director out.
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