The 37th Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards take place this Saturday and their best of prize has become a rather reliable bellwether for the Academy’s Best Picture. The two have matched 7 out of the last 8 years with 2019 being the exception when PGA chose 1917 and Oscar went with Parasite.
PGA also honors documentaries and animated features. Let’s walk through each race with a winner and runner-up selection.
Daryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures
Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams, Weapons
PGA and the Academy have a 9 for 10 match this year. Weapons makes the cut on this list with The Secret Agent replacing it at the Oscars. This is expected to come down to Warner Bros offerings One Battle and Sinners. While I am predicting the latter to get Best Ensemble at Sunday’s Actor Awards, I still see Battle as the Oscar frontrunner and therefore am picking it here. That said, if Sinners gets this, the momentum will have shifted.
WINNER: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Sinners
Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures
The Alabama Solution, Cover-Up, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Mom Jayne, Ocean with David Attenborough, The Perfect Neighbor, The Tale of Silyan
At BAFTA over the weekend, Nobody rose above favored The Perfect Neighbor. In this doc derby, PGA has often shown a lean toward the most high profile project and that would be Neighbor. I’ll go with it with the caveat that this category can be unpredictable.
WINNER: The Perfect Neighbor
Runner-Up: The Alabama Solution
Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
The Bad Guys 2, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Zootopia 2
I find myself tempted to go with Zootopia 2 in an upset, but I can’t bet against juggernaut KPop.
The 78th Directors Guild of America (DGA) Awards occur on Saturday evening and there’s some genuine intrigue in the biggest race of all. Their honoree for Feature Film has correlated with the Academy’s Best Director recipient 22 out of 25 times in the 21st century. The exceptions are 2002 when the DGA victor was Rob Marshall (Chicago) and the Oscar winner was Roman Polanski (The Pianist), 2012 – Ben Affleck, Argo (DGA) and Ang Lee, Life of Pi (Oscar), and 2019 – Sam Mendes, 1917 (DGA) and Bong Joon-ho (Parasite).
Why the drama? This DGA ceremony could provide a major clue as to what will be taking Best Picture in a few weeks. There are three film related competitions at DGA. Let’s walk through them one by one with a winner projection and a runner-up.
Feature Film
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
Per usual, 4 of the 5 DGA hopefuls are included the Oscar quintet. The Academy nominated Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) over del Toro. This is a two-man showdown between Anderson and Coogler. The thought process for some time is that Battle is a safe(ish) bet for Best Picture. However, the record shattering 16 nods that Sinners nabbed has shifted the narrative and it is seen as a legit possibility. That momentum could be kicked into a higher gear if Coogler emerges at DGA. It’s tempting to pick him. Yet Sinners has another shot at precursor love via the SAG Actor Awards where a Best Ensemble win seems even more realistic. I’m still going with the Directors Guild favoring PTA – not just for Battle but for a highly celebrated body of work over the past three decades. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice did the same. That said, if Coogler achieves the upset, Sinners will immediately become the frontrunner for BP at the Oscars.
Predicted Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Documentary Film
Nominees: Mstyslav Chernov (2000 Meters to Andrivka), Geeta Gandbhir (The Perfect Neighbor), Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni (Cutting Through Rocks), Elizabeth Lo (Mistress Dispeller), Laura Poitras and Mark Obenhaus (Cover-Up)
While I wouldn’t totally discount Chernov or the team behind Cover-Up, The Perfect Neighbor is the most visible of the five docs thanks to widespread Netflix exposure. That should be enough for the W. It is worthy of mention that the DGA’s recipient often doesn’t match the Academy Documentary Feature Film awardee so this is more of a question mark than Feature Film.
Predicted Winner: Geeta Ghandbhir, The Perfect Neighbor
Runner-Up: Mstyslav Chernov (2000 Meters to Andrivka)
First-Time Feature Film
Nominees: Hasan Hadi (The President’s Cake), Harry Lighton (Pillion), Charlie Polinger (The Plague), Alex Russell (Lurker), Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby)
None of the pics here received any Academy attention though Sorry, Baby probably came closest. Many had it pegged for an Original Screenplay nom. While Lighton and Polinger are viable, I’d stick with Sorry.
Nominations for the 31st Critics’ Choice Awards will be unveiled tomorrow morning before its telecast on January 4th. With Chelsea Handler returning to host, it is one of the higher profile Oscar precursors. This awards branch is traditionally hesitant to honor international titles though titles No Other Choice and The Secret Agent popped up on their shortlists for consideration and recent pics like Roma, Parasite, and RRR made the cut. Speaking of, this is the first year where CCA unveiled shortlists for a number of below the line races.
Like the Oscars, there are 10 nominees for Best Picture. Last year, 9 out of 10 CCA nominees got a BP nod from the Academy. It was 8 the previous two years so this is a decent barometer for what’s to come. Unlike the Oscars, there were 8 nominated Directors (at least there was last year), but apparently only six this time around and 6 hopefuls in other categories.
Here are my predictions with an alternate for each competition:
Best Picture
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Bugonia
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Alternate – Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Alternate – Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Alternate – George Clooney, Jay Kelly
Best Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Alternate – Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Alternate – Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Best Original Screenplay
It Was Just an Accident
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Weapons
Alternate – The Secret Agent
Best Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
No Other Choice
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams
Alternate – Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Comedy
Bugonia
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
The Phoenician Scheme
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Alternate – The Naked Gun
Best Ensemble
Hamnet
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – A House of Dynamite
Best Foreign Language Film
It Was Just an Accident
No Other Choice
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sirât
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Alternate – Left-Handed Girl
Best Animated Film
Arco
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Ne Zha 2
Scarlet
Zootopia 2
Alternate – Elio
Best Cinematography
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Train Dreams
Alternate – Jay Kelly
Best Costume Design
Frankenstein
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Hamnet
Best Editing
A House of Dynamite
F1
Marty Supreme
No Other Choice
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Alternate – Hamnet
Best Hair and Makeup
28 Years Later
Frankenstein
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
Weapons
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Production Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Hedda
Best Original Score
A House of Dynamite
Bugonia
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Alternate – Frankenstein
Best Original Song
“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless
“The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good
“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
“Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest
“I Lied to You” from Sinners
“Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
Alternate – “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners
Best Sound
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Warfare
Best Stunt Ensemble
Ballerina
F1
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Superman
Best Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
F1
Frankenstein
Superman
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Mickey 17
Best Young Actor/Actress
Everett Blunck, The Plague
Miles Caton, Sinners
Cary Christopher, Weapons
Aidan Delbis, Bugonia
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Jacobi Jupe, Hamnet
Alternate – Alfie Williams, 28 Years Later
That means I am predicting the following number of nominations for these films:
17 Nominations
Sinners
16 Nominations
One Battle After Another
11 Nominations
Marty Supreme, Wicked: For Good
10 Nominations
Hamnet
9 Nominations
Frankenstein
8 Nominations
Sentimental Value
5 Nominations
Bugonia, Jay Kelly, Train Dreams
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Weapons
3 Nominations
It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice
2 Nominations
A House of Dynamite, KPop Demon Hunters, The Secret Agent
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, Arco, Ballerina, Blue Moon, Diane Warren: Relentless, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Highest 2 Lowest, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Ne Zha 2, The Phoenician Scheme, The Plague, Scarlet, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2
With Daniel Craig anchoring for the third time as eccentric sleuth Benoit Blanc, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery continues the mystery franchise. It premiered at the Toronto Film Festival with a limited theatrical engagement slated for November 26th and Netflix release on December 12th. Rian Johnson returns as writer/director with the considerable supporting cast including Josh O’Connor, Glenn Close, Josh Brolin, Mila Kunis, Jeremy Renner, Kerry Washington, Andrew Scott, Cailee Spaeny, Daryl McCormack, and Thomas Haden Church.
2019’s Knives Out was up for Original Screenplay and 2022 follow-up Glass Onion vied for Adapted Screenplay. They respectively lost to Parasite and Women Talking. Several critics in Canada are making the case that Wake is the strongest overall of the three pictures. Rotten Tomatoes is at 92% with Metacritic at 82. It’s probably a safe bet that it’ll make the cut in Adapted Screenplay at the 98th ceremony. As for the cast, O’Connor and Close are being labeled as best in show. I’d say the latter, due to her infamous history of being nominated and not winning, stands a better chance with the Academy. Don’t be surprised if the sole nom for this is in its writing race.
The Golden Globes should should offer different opportunities. Both predecessors were nominated for Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy – with the original falling short to Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and The Banshees of Inisherin taking the prize over Glass. Craig was nominated for Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy for both. It was Taron Egerton (Rocketman) and Inisherin‘s Colin Farrell hearing their names called instead. I would suspect Craig will get in again (as will the film) and hope the third time is the charm. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
No one can do Cannes like Neon. The indie film production company has ruled the French festival for six years straight when it comes to the Palme d’Or winner. That list consists of Parasite, Titane, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall, and Anora. The first and last movies in that quintet went onto win Best Picture at the Oscars with Triangle and Anatomy nabbing nominations.
Neon once again had contenders to spare at this year’s competition and many assumed the grand prize would go to Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value. That acclaimed family drama immediately established itself as an Oscar contender. Yet the Cannes jury (headed by Juliette Binoche) instead chose another Neon property in Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident. It marks another festival triumph for the Iranian filmmaker. His 2000 feature The Circle took top honors in Venice while 2015’s Taxi was awarded best of at the Berlin Fest. Accident now enters the conversation for a BP mention from the Academy and it certainly is a major contender for International Feature Film.
As for the more favored Value, it settled for the Grand Prix designation which is basically runner-up (it went to BP nominee The Zone of Interest in 2023). As mentioned, Neon has high hopes for its future in the coming months.
The Jury Prize (which Emilia Pérez took last time around) was shared between Spanish/French coproduction Sirât from Oliver Laxe and Mascha Schilinski’s German generational tale Sound of Falling (which is also a sturdy hopeful in IFF).
Another major player for Neon is The Secret Agent, the 1970s set Brazilian political thriller. Kieber Mendonça Filho received the Director trophy while Wagner Moura is Best Actor. Look for Agent to have a potential presence in IFF while Moura’s lead campaign could be a real threat for Academy inclusion.
Nadia Melliti is your Best Actress for the French coming-of-age drama The Little Sister. The young actress emerged over heavy hitter Jennifer Lawrence from Die, My Love. Nevertheless Lawrence did strengthen her shot at a fifth Oscar play months down the road.
Some had pegged Richard Linklater’s Nouvelle Vague (which recounts the shooting of French classic Breathless) for some Riviera prizes, but it wasn’t to be. Other high profile premieres not found among the victors are Iranian drama Woman and Child (where Parinaz Izadyar was considered viable in Actress), Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme, and Julia Ducournau’s Titane follow-up Alpha.
Keep an eye on the blog as I continue to write individual posts for movies screened at Cannes. I hadn’t even gotten to Accident yet! As for next year, look to see what Neon’s backing when figuring out the favorites…
Distributor Neon has shined brightly at the Cannes Film Festival by releasing the previous five Palme d’Or recipients: Parasite, Titane, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall, and Anora. Only Titane missed a Best Picture nod from the Academy. Parasite and Anora won. That’s one of the reasons Joachim Trier’s family drama Sentimental Value is considered to be a serious contender for the top prize in France. Another is because it’s the filmmaker’s follow-up to his acclaimed 2021 effort The Worst Person in the World which reunites him with star Renate Reinsve. The supporting cast includes Stellan Skarsgård, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Elle Fanning, Anders Danielsen Lie, and Cory Michael Smith.
Early festival reaction is effusive and points to Value indeed being a major Palme threat. Neon could guide this to numerous Oscar nods including Picture, Director, Reinsve in Actress, Skasrgård in Supporting Actor, and Original Screenplay. Then there’s Supporting Actress and according to reviews, Neon may have a decision to make as Lilleass and Fanning are both being praised. The latter would be a higher profile campaign, but let’s see how it plays out.
Bottom line: there is no doubt that Sentimental has quickly established itself a potential force at Cannes and beyond. Expect to hear a lot about it this awards season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Mickey 17, Bong Joon-ho’s follow=up to his Oscar juggernaut Parasite, looks to rule the charts this weekend and end the three-week reign of Captain America: Brave New World. We also have Rule Breakers from Angel Studios and you can peruse my prediction posts on the newcomers here:
With a forecast in the upper teens (which isn’t oh so fine), I’m not as optimistic as some others on Mickey 17. The sci-fi satire with Robert Pattinson should benefit from the Joon-ho goodwill, but I’m not convinced that equates to a gross north of $20 million.
As for Rule Breakers with Phoebe Waller-Bridge, lower to mid single digits could place it in fourth or fifth with third being the best case scenario if it exceeds my projection.
Captain America: Brave New World should slide to second with a low to mid 40s dip while Last Breath and The Monkey populate the remainder of the top five.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Mickey 17
Predicted Gross: $17.9 million
2. Captain America: Brave New World
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
3. Last Breath
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
4. Rule Breakers
Predicted Gross: $3.7 million
5. The Monkey
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
Box Office Results (February 28-March 2)
It was a three-peat for the MCU’s Captain America: Brave New World with $14.8 million added to its coffers. That’s ahead of my $11.8 million guesstimate as the superhero tale has taken in $163 million with $200 million in its domestic sights (though it might fall a little short of that).
Survival thriller Last Breath starring Woody Harrelson and Simu Liu was runner-up with $7.8 million and that tops my glass half empty prediction of $4.8 million. That’s at the better end of its anticipated range.
The Monkey was third in its sophomore outing with $6.4 million, a tad ahead of my $5.7 million call. The horror comedy stands at $24 million after ten days.
Paddington in Peru was fourth with $4.5 million (I said $3.9 million) for $31 million overall after three weeks.
Dog Man rounded out the top five with $4.2 million (I went with $3.7 million). The five-week tally is $84 million as it will try and reach $100 million stateside.
Bong Joon-ho’s follow-up to his 2019 Oscar juggernaut Parasite hits multiplexes via Mickey 17 on March 7th. Robert Pattinson plays multiple roles in the sci-fi satire which premiered at the Berlin Film Festival. Naomi Ackie, Steven Yeun, Toni Collette, and Mark Ruffalo costar.
Sporting the acclaimed auteur’s biggest budget, Mickey certainly arrives with higher expectations than he’s seen before. Most reviews are solid with 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and 75 on Metacritic. That said, it probably won’t be the awards player that Parasite was save for some tech races.
Originally slated for theaters in March 2024, some estimates have Mickey in the $25 million region. I’m not convinced it will do that fine. Had it arrived just a couple of years after Joon-ho’s predecessor, I might be projecting more. I’ll say higher teens with low 20s as the best case scenario.
Mickey 17 opening weekend prediction: $17.9 million
Prior to its March 7th domestic release, Mickey 17 has debuted overseas at the Berlin Film Festival. The sci-fi satire is Bong Joon-ho’s eagerly awaited follow-up to 2019’s Parasite which dominated the 92nd Academy Award by taking Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, and International Feature Film. Originally slated for spring 2024, Mickey stars Robert Pattinson, Naomi Ackie, Steven Yeun, Toni Collette, and Mark Ruffalo.
Early reviews suggests this is more in line with Joon-ho’s Okja as opposed to Parasite. With 81% on Rotten Tomatoes and 74 on Metacritic, the acclaim isn’t as universal as the multiple Oscar winner. The release date would further suggest that Warner Bros won’t make this a major awards play (though this pattern did work for Dune: Part Two).
That said, some reaction is quite effusive. While Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay (it’s based on a 2022 Edward Ashton novel) could be a stretch, down the line tech races like Sound and Visual Effects could happen. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Each year the American Film Institute (AFI) names their ten best films of the year and it’s become a reliable bell weather for 7-8 Best Picture nominees at the Oscars. How about a look at the past 15 years and their track record since the Academy expanded to more than five BP contenders?
2009: 5/10 match
2010: 9/10
2011: 7/9
2012: 8/9
2013: 7/9
2014: 6/8
2015: 6/8
2016: 7/9
2017: 7/9
2018: 5/8
2019: 7/9
2020: 6/8
2021: 8/10
2022: 7/10
2023: 8/10
There’s an important caveat as this is the American Film Institute. Therefore movies considered international do not make the cut. They often get a “special” award and that was the case with Roma, Parasite, and The Banshees of Inisherin.
Today’s AFI announcement was surprising in the sense that there was only one. Emilia Pérez was thought by most to be ineligible for the 10 due to its foreign flavor, but it managed to make the cut. The AFI list is as follows:
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
A Real Pain
Sing Sing
Wicked
Not a shocker in the group. This seems like a key inclusion for Nickel Boys and A Real Pain in solidifying their status as legit BP players. I suspect that if some prognosticators knew Emilia would be eligible, several of them would’ve gone 10/10.
Let’s analyze, shall we? The AFI has a habit of naming mainstream pics that the Academy ignores. Examples in the last decade include Into the Woods, Inside Out, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Straight Outta Compton, Zootopia, Wonder Woman, Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place, Knives Out, Soul, Nope, and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.
Note the amount of animated features. This is where a nod for The Wild Robot wouldn’t have been unexpected. The fact that it didn’t land here is an indication of its chances in the Academy’s BP derby… none. The same might be said for Gladiator II. It’s been out of my top 10 and I had it placed 13th in Other Possibilities last weekend. Don’t be surprised it drops out of the top 15 in my next update.
Other features that could have benefitted from a spot here include The Substance, September 5, Nosferatu, Blitz, The Room Next Door, and recent Gotham recipient A Different Man.
That said… we don’t expect this to be the Oscar top ten…
Do we?!? It sure could be. Yes, that would be the first time AFI and the Academy match 10/10. Yet the only difference I have right now is The Substance over A Complete Unknown and the latter seems to be picking up some steam. We still have Critics Choice and their top ten en route. They’re another pretty reliable barometer. I’ll say right now, though, that at least 8 of AFI’s picks will be the Academy’s and perhaps more…
Keep an eye on this blog for all Oscar precursor chatter!
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