It’s become a common occurrence over the past few Labor Day weekends to see a high-profile picture from our neighbor to the south released stateside. 2018 is no different as Mexican drama Ya Veremos opens domestically Friday. The pic comes from director Pedro Pablo Ibarra with a cast including Mauricio Ochmann, Fernanda Castillo, and Emiliano Aramayo.
A number of these selections are from distributor Pantelion Films, which is behind this. Veremos has performed well in Mexico. The release pattern has been extremely consistent for these imports – a debut with a theater count of 300-400 screens. This is slated to premiere on 350.
The results, however, have been varied. 2013’s Instructions Not Included provided the high mark with $10.3 million. Nothing has matched that since. 2014’s Cantinflas took in $3.5 million. 2016’s No Manches Frida made $4.6 million. Last summer’s Hazlo Como Hombre managed just $1.4 million. All of these grosses were for the four-day holiday frame.
Recent trends would indicate Veremos is more likely to come in on the low-end of that scale and not hit the surprising earnings of Instructions five years ago.
Ya Veremos opening weekend prediction: $2.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
***Blogger’s Update II (05/03/18): On the eve of its premiere, I am returning back to original estimate at $11.8 million. Been a whirlwind with this one…
**Blogger’s Update (04/26/18): I have soured considerably on my Overboard estimate. I’m revising my prediction from $11.8 million to just $7.8 million.
Eugenio Derbez and Anna Faris headline the remake Overboard, premiering next weekend. The comedy is based on a 1987 romantic comedy directed by Garry Marshall that starred Goldie Hawn and Kurt Russell. It was considered a moderate success (grossing $27 million at the time). A co-production of Lionsgate and Pantelion, the latter is the same studio that turned Derbez’s How to be a Latin Lover into an unexpected success around the same time last year. That pic opened to $12.2 million and made $32 million domestically.
Rob Greenberg directs with a supporting cast that includes Eva Longoria, John Hannah, and Swoosie Kurtz. The film was originally slated for an April 20th release before being pushed back two weeks (the shift of Avengers: Infinity War likely had something to do with that). Faris has been largely absent from the big screen as she’s concentrated mostly on her CBS sitcom “Mom”. Her last headlining role came with 2012’s What’s Your Number? (which was a disappointment) and we’re a decade from her last hit The House Bunny.
Current theater counts put this at a rather low 1500 screens (it could certainly rise and I wouldn’t be surprised if it does). That’s roughly the number that Latin Lover had. I foresee Overboard posting a similar opening weekend, which should be good enough to come in second to the sophomore frame of the Marvel superheroes.
Overboard opening weekend prediction: $11.8 million
Hollywood is pretty much taking the Labor Day weekend off and the highest debut (unless Tulip Fever blossoms which is unlikely) could well be Pantelion’s Hazlo Como Hombre. The Spanish language comedy comes from a studio that is used to releasing their product on this particular weekend to robust results.
Four years ago, Pantelion’s studio put out Instructions Not Included and shocked box office prognosticators with a $10.3 million four-day holiday gross. Last year during the same frame, No Manches Frida took in $4.6 million. The release pattern for both pics were similar: put them out in 300-something theaters and watch the high per screen averages roll in.
The studio had a huge hit earlier this year with How to Be a Latin Lover, which debuted in over 1000 theaters and made over $12 million for its start. Hombre is slated to premiere on approximately 370 screens. Not every Pantelion pic has been a success, as June’s 3 Idiotas stumbled with just north of $600,000 on the typical 300ish screens.
So where’s that put this one? Well, it’s unpredictable when you look over the history, but I’ll say this performs similarly yet a bit lower to No Manches Frida in the $3-potentially $5M range.
Hazlo Como Hombre opening weekend prediction: $3.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate)