The Predator Box Office Prediction

Over three decades ago, Shane Black costarred in the classic sci-fi adventure tale Predator. Like most cast members, he didn’t manage to survive the proceedings like Arnold Schwarzenegger did. He did go on to an impressive writing and directing career that includes the screenplays for Lethal Weapon, The Last Boy Scout, and The Long Kiss Goodnight and serving double duty for Kiss Kiss Bang Bang, Iron Man 3, and The Nice Guys. Things come full circle next weekend for Black as he directs and co-writes The Predator, the latest iteration of the long running franchise.

Not counting the two Alien vs. Predator extravaganzas, this is the fourth traditional entry in the series behind the 1987’s original, its 1990 sequel, and the 2010 reboot Predators. Boyd Holbrook, Trevante Rhodes, Wonder star Jacob Tremblay, Keegan-Michael Key, Olivia Munn, Sterling K. Brown, and Thomas Jane populate the human troupe battling the deadly creatures.

It’s actually the first teaming of this franchise with the Alien series that resulted in the largest debut featuring the title character in 2004 – to the tune of a $38.2 million. Predators set the high mark over parts 1 and 2 (due to inflation) with a $24.7 million start. Its overall gross was very front-loaded as it ended up with $52 million.

The eight year inflation should allow The Predator to exceed that, but I don’t see it coming close to the high 30s number that AVP achieved. I would say high 20s is the more reasonable expectation and that should allow it to place #1 at the box office (something Predators couldn’t manage in the heat of significant summer competition). As a comp for 2018, I’ve got this earning a similar debut to this spring’s Pacific Rim Uprising.

The Predator opening weekend prediction: $27.4 million

For my A Simple Favor prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/05/a-simple-favor-box-office-prediction/

For my White Boy Rick prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/06/white-boy-rick-box-office-prediction/

For my Unbroken: Path to Redemption prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/06/unbroken-path-to-redemption-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: April 6-8

A quartet of newcomers roll into the marketplace this weekend looking to make some noise at the box office. We have the critically acclaimed horror pic A Quiet Place, critically acclaimed raunchy comedy Blockers, true-life sports drama The Miracle Season, and true-life political drama Chappaquiddick. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/27/a-quiet-place-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/28/blockers-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/30/the-miracle-season-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/30/chappaquiddick-box-office-prediction/

A Quiet Place seems primed for a healthy debut and my plus $30 million estimate places it firmly in first place. Blockers certainly has breakout potential with its positive word-of-mouth and it could manage to climb higher than my low to mid teens projection. That would put it in third place behind the second weekend of Ready Player One, which I’m thinking will lose close to half its audience in its sophomore frame.

As for The Miracle Season and Chappaquiddick, my respective estimates of $3.8 million and $2.3 million put both of them outside the top 5.

Acrimony (which was 2nd over the Easter holiday) is likely to suffer a hefty decline in weekend #2 and that could leave it battling Black Panther for the five-spot. I’ll give Marvel’s superhero the edge. In fact, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that I Could Only Imagine could place fifth, pushing Acrimony to sixth.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend ahead:

1. A Quiet Place

Predicted Gross: $31.2 million

2. Ready Player One

Predicted Gross: $21.8 million

3. Blockers

Predicted Gross: $15.2 million

4. Black Panther

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million

5. Acrimony

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million

Box Office Results (March 30-April 1)

Ready Player One easily ruled the charts over Easter weekend. It met expectations and delivered Steven Spielberg his largest opener in a decade since 2008’s Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (and fifth largest ever not adjusted for inflation). The sci-fi adventure grossed $41.7 million over the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend, topping my $36.7 million estimate and $53.7 million since its Wednesday evening roll out (just ahead of my $50.8 million projection).

The Tyler Perry directed psychological thriller Acrimony exceeded my expectations, opening in second with a solid $17.1 million compared to my $13.2 million projection. As mentioned, a large second weekend dip is probable.

Black Panther placed third with $11.4 million to bring its jaw dropping total to $650 million. My prediction? $11.4 million!!

Surprise hit I Can Only Imagine was fourth with $10.4 million, just under my $11.2 million prediction for $55 million overall.

Last week’s #1 Pacific Rim Uprising fell to fifth with a massive 67% drop and $9.3 million, under my $11.7 million estimate. The sequel has made $45 million in two weeks.

Finally, faith-based sequel God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness stumbled out of the gate with a meager $2.6 million debut in 12th place, just over half of my $5.1 million forecast.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: March 30-April 1

Three new films try to fill their box office Easter baskets with dollars this weekend as Steven Spielberg’s futuristic sci-fi adventure Ready Player One, Tyler Perry’s thriller Acrimony with Taraji P. Henson, and faith-based threequel God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness all open. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/20/ready-player-one-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/21/acrimony-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/21/gods-not-dead-a-light-in-darkness-box-office-prediction/

Ready Player should have no trouble being number one out of the gate. The big budget and well-reviewed pic opens wide on Thursday (a bit odd for a roll out), meaning it will have Wednesday night previews as well. I’ve got it slated for a mid 30s debut over the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend with a $50 million haul when factoring in the extra day. I will note that my projection has steadily risen since last week and we’ll see if I revise it up again before Wednesday evening.

The battle for #2 could be more interesting. Similar genre themed entries as Acrimony have grossed anywhere between low teens and mid 20s. I’ve got Acrimony on the lower end of that spectrum and that should still give it the runner-up spot in my view.

That’s because I’m anticipating a hefty sophomore weekend drop for Pacific Rim Uprising, the current #1. Its 2013 predecessor suffered a 57% dip in its second frame and I expect this to follow suit.

Percentage drop-offs should be much smaller for both Black Panther and I Can Only Imagine. I’m anticipating a photo finish between numbers 3-5.

My $5.1 million estimate for God’s Not Dead leaves it well outside the top 5.

And with that, here’s my top five Easter predictions:

1. Ready Player One

Predicted Gross: $36.7 million (Friday to Sunday), $50.8 million (Thursday to Sunday)

2. Acrimony

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

3. Pacific Rim Uprising

Predicted Gross: $11.7 million

4. Black Panther

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

5. I Can Only Imagine

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

Box Office Results (March 23-25)

Pacific Rim Uprising nabbed the top spot over the weekend with $28.1 million, above my $23.4 million prediction. While my estimate was low, its debut was quite a bit less than the $37 million achieved by its 2013 Guillermo del Toro directed predecessor. Look for it to see a big dip this weekend.

After five weeks perched at #1, Black Panther finally fell to second with $17 million (I said $17.9 million). Marvel is surely celebrating, however, as Panther is now the highest grossing Marvel Cinematic Universe film of all time with a total of $631 million – surpassing the $623 million made by 2012’s The Avengers.

I Could Only Imagine continued its highly impressive run in third place with $13.6 million (I was close at $13 million) to bring its two-week tally to $38 million. I look for it to experience a small decline over the Easter holiday.

Animated sequel Sherlock Gnomes had trouble detecting a solid family audience, opening in 4th place with a weak $10.6 million compared my $13.7 million projection. The seven-year gap between its predecessor Gnomeo and Juliet and this probably didn’t help.

Tomb Raider rounded out the top five in its disappointing run with $10.1 million (I was a touch higher at $11.2 million) for a ten-day tally of just $41 million.

Biblical drama Paul, Apostle of Christ failed to reach its intended audience in an 8th place opening at $5.1 million, on pace with my $5.5 million prediction.

YA romance Midnight Sun had a lackluster start with $4.1 million in 10th place, on target with my $4 million take.

Finally, the Steven Soderbergh iPhone shot thriller Unsane debuted in 11th place with $3.7 million, in line with my $3.9 million estimate.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: March 23-25

We have a quintet of pictures entering the marketplace this weekend and it may mean Black Panther is dethroned after five weeks atop the charts. They are: sci-fi sequel Pacific Rim Uprising, animated sequel Sherlock Gnomes, Biblical drama Paul, Apostle of Christ, YA romance Midnight Sun, and psychological thriller Unsane. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on all of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/13/pacific-rim-uprising-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/13/sherlock-gnomes-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/14/paul-apostle-of-christ-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/16/midnight-sun-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/16/unsane-box-office-prediction/

Even though I have the Pacific follow-up generating less coin than its 2013 predecessor, its haul should be enough to have it rise to the top. That said, Black Panther has continually defied expectations and held off other high-profile titles such as A Wrinkle in Time and Tomb Raider from getting to first place.

Sherlock Gnomes is a question mark in my view. Its predecessor – 2011’s Gnomeo and Juliet – had a solid $25 million opening, but that was seven long years ago. My lower teens estimate may nab it a third place showing.

If Sherlock fails to meet expectations, it could allow Tomb Raider or I Could Only Imagine to place third. The second weekend of Imagine should particularly be interesting to watch as it significantly topped all expectations and could be set for a small drop based on word-of-mouth. Raider, on the other hand, should lose arouns half its audience after a disappointing start.

Paul, Apostle of Christ is slated to open on only about 1400 screens and my $5.5 million estimate for it puts it outside the top 5. I also expect the other two newbies to debut weakly with Midnight Sun predicted at $4 million and Unsane at $3.9 million.

And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend ahead:

1. Pacific Rim Uprising

Predicted Gross: $23.4 million

2. Black Panther

Predicted Gross: $17.9 million

3. Sherlock Gnomes

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million

4. I Can Only Imagine

Predicted Gross: $13 million

5. Tomb Raider

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

Box Office Results (March 16-18)

Black Panther held off Lara Croft and was #1 for the fifth consecutive weekend. It’s the first picture to accomplish that feat since Avatar eight years ago. The Marvel behemoth grossed $26.6 million (in line with my $25.7 million projection) to bring its total to $605 million. It currently sits at 7th on the all-time domestic earners list and this coming weekend, it should supplant The Avengers at #5 to become the highest grossing comic book adaptation ever in the United States.

Tomb Raider had to settle for the runner-up position with $23.6 million, shy of my $26.4 million prediction. The franchise reboot got off to a shaky start and future sequels appear questionable at best.

The box office story of the weekend was faith-based musical drama I Can Only Imagine, which astonished predictors like me with a third place opening of $17.1 million. I was, um, a bit lower at $5.4 million. Imagine has clearly captivated Christian audiences and it posted the largest per screen average of any pic in the top 10. With the Easter holiday approaching, it could be in for a bountiful road ahead.

A Wrinkle in Time dropped to fourth with $16.2 million (I said $16.4 million) in weekend #2, bringing its lackluster tally to $60 million. At this point, it appears questionable that it will reach $100 million domestically.

Love, Simon took the five spot with $11.7 million, a bit under my $13.3 million estimate. The coming-of-age drama did receive positive reviews and audience word-of-mouth is strong, so it could experience small declines in coming weekends.

I incorrectly had Game Night at #5 until Imagine upended that, but it grossed $5.6 million for sixth. My prediction? $5.6 million!

Finally, 7 Days in Entebbe failed to bring in an audience, debuting in 13th place with $1.5 million. On the bright side (?), it did top my $972,000 forecast.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Pacific Rim Uprising Box Office Prediction

The giant monster mash franchise that began nearly five years ago is back on screen next weekend with the release of Pacific Rim Uprising. There’s some new faces behind and in front of the camera this time around. The original Pacific Rim debuted in the summer of 2013 to decent stateside box office numbers, earning $37 million in its opening weekend and $101 million overall. It reached over $400 million worldwide.

Part 1 came from recently minted Oscar winner Guillermo del Toro, who just shares a producer credit here. Steven S. DeKnight makes his directorial debut in a cast led by John Boyega. Costars include Scott Eastwood, Cailee Spaeny, Jing Tian, and Adria Arjona. Returning cast members from the first include Charlie Day, Rinko Kikuchim, and Burn Gorman. Idris Elba and Charlie Hunnam are not back.

Uprising arrives with a slightly smaller budget than part 1 – $150 million vs. $190 million. Expectations for the sequel are also smaller – at least in North America. Universal Pictures is likely looking to make the bulk of its cash overseas, particularly in the Asian markets. While Rim seems poised to debut at #1, I’m estimating a mid 20s gross and predicting it won’t reach the century club like its predecessor.

Pacific Rim Uprising opening weekend prediction: $23.4 million

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofZTolUHiS8

For my Sherlock Gnomes prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/13/sherlock-gnomes-box-office-prediction/

For my Paul, Apostle of Christ prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/14/paul-apostle-of-christ-box-office-prediction/

For my Midnight Sun prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/16/midnight-sun-box-office-prediction/

For my Unsane prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/16/unsane-box-office-prediction/