Tag: Osgood Perkins

November 21-23 Box Office Predictions

Wicked: For Good sweeps in to rule the box office and it could compete for 2025’s biggest domestic opening. We also have Finnish action sequel Sisu: Road to Revenge and Japan set dramedy Rental Family making their debuts and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Wicked: For Good Box Office Prediction
Sisu: Road to Revenge Box Office Prediction
Rental Family Box Office Prediction

The second part of Wicked is expected to easily swoosh past the $112 million opening of part 1 last year. The real question is whether it eclipses the $162 million start of A Minecraft Movie which currently holds the record for the year. I have falling just behind.

Sisu: Road to Revenge should manage to top the $3.3 million out of the gate that its predecessor achieved in 2023, but perhaps not by much. My mid single digits projection puts it in fifth.

Rental Family with Oscar winner Brendan Fraser hasn’t been able to generate much buzz despite mostly solid reviews. I have it struggling in sixth place.

Holdovers should populate slots 2-4. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t scored a surprise #1 showing (more on that below). If it drops in range with Now You See Me 2 from nine years ago, it could fall below $10 million for the runner-up spot. The second weekend of The Running Man and third frame of Predator: Badlands could see similar numbers battling for third.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Wicked: For Good

Predicted Gross: $158.1 million

2. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

3. The Running Man

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

4. Predator: Badlands

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

5. Sisu: Road to Revenge

Predicted Gross: $4 million

6. Rental Family

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

Box Office Results (November 14-16)

As mentioned, threequel Now You See Me: Now You Don’t easily ruled the charts with a better than anticipated $21 million compared to my $17.1 million prediction. While it’s the lowest opening of the franchise (falling under the original’s $29 million and part two’s $22 million), the #1 posting was an unexpected development.

That’s because many prognosticators, including me, figured The Running Man with Glen Powell might manage bragging rights. Yet the sci-fi remake took in only $16.4 million for second, under my $19.6 million estimate.

Another projection I missed is that I thought Predator: Badlands wouldn’t experience the hefty sophomore decline of other pics in the franchise. However, it plummeted 68% to $12.7 million. I was far more generous at $18.2 million. The two-week tally is still an impressive $66 million.

Regretting You was fourth with $3.7 million and I was higher at $5 million. The four-week take is $44 million.

Black Phone 2 rounded out the top five and I incorrectly didn’t have it there. In its fifth week, it earned $2.6 million to bring its total to $74 million.

Keeper from Osgood Perkins was right behind in sixth with $2.5 million (I said $3.2 million). The horror flick couldn’t attract its intended audience.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

November 14-16 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (11/12): I am downgrading my The Running Man estimate from $27.6 million to $19.6 million as reviews and word-of-mouth have stalled momentum; I am downgrading my Keeper estimate from $6.5 million to $3.2 million

The Running Man looks steal the box office crown as heist threequel Now You See Me: Now You Don’t and horror pic Keeper debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:

The Running Man Box Office Prediction
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t Box Office Prediction
Keeper Box Office Prediction

Based on the Stephen King novel, sci-fi action satire The Running Man also serves as a remake of the 1987 pic with Glen Powell taking over starring duties from Arnold Schwarzenegger. I don’t think it reaches the heights of Predator: Badlands from this past weekend (more on that below), but it should place 1st in the low to mid 20s.

Now You See Me: Now You Don’t includes Jesse Eisenberg, Woody Harrelson, and Morgan Freeman reprising their roles from 2013 and 2016 predecessors. That’s a lengthy layover from part 2 to 3 and the second one didn’t match the original in terms of cash. I anticipate the drop-off will continue and I have See in third.

Keeper could overperform as horror titles often do, but I’m going mid single digits for a fourth place showing for the latest genre effort from the prolific Osgood Perkins.

It will be interesting to see the sophomore frame percentage decline for Predator: Badlands. 2010’s Predators and 2018’s The Predator each debuted in the mid 20s (far below this one). They plummeted 72% and 63% respectively in their follow-up outings. The film in the franchise that performed similarly to Badlands (2004’s AVP: Alien Vs. Predator) saw a 68% dip. However, I don’t see this falling that far due to its A- Cinemascore (the strongest of the lot). Mid 50s seems more likely.

Regretting You, which showed impressive staying power last weekend, should round out the top five and here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. The Running Man

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million

2. Predator: Badlands

Predicted Gross: $18.2 million

3. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million

4. Regretting You

Predicted Gross: $5 million

6. Keeper

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (November 7-9)

It took a nearly 40-year-old franchise to wake up the box office and showed that the series wasn’t over the hill as Predator: Badlands amassed $40 million. Solid word-of-mouth and positive reviews helped propel it to the highest start of the nine pictures when not adjusting for inflation. This easily eclipsed my $27.6 million prediction.

Regretting You, as mentioned, slid a teensy 15% in weekend #3 to $6.6 million compared to my $4.8 million call. The romantic drama is plugging along with $38 million thus far.

Black Phone 2 dropped from 1st to 3rd as it received $5.1 million, in line with my $4.6 million projection. The sequel has taken in $70 million after four weeks.

The inspirational early 20th century set drama Sarah’s Oil, which includes Zachary Levi among its cast, was my surprise of the weekend. It placed fourth with $4.2 million and I didn’t do a guesstimate. Scoring a rare A+ Cinemascore grade, Oil could hold up well in the coming weeks.

Historical courtroom drama Nuremberg with Oscar winners Russell Crowe and Rami Malek rounded out the top five with $3.8 million, managing to outdo my $3 million take.

Bugonia was sixth in weekend #2 at $3.4 million (ahead of my $2.7 million prediction) for $12 million after two weeks of wide release.

Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc finished seventh with $3.4 million (I said $2.9 million) as the anime hit stands at $37 million after three weeks.

Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson’s drama Die, My Love debuted in eighth with $2.6 million, on pace with my $2.5 million estimate.

Finally, boxing biopic Christy with Sydney Sweeney was KO’d in 11th with just $1.3 million. I was more generous at $2.2 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Keeper Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (11/12): I am downgrading my estimate from $6.5 million to $3.2 million

Osgood Perkins releases his third horror title in under two years when Keeper arrives in theaters November 14th. The two-hander stars Tatiana Maslany and Rossif Sutherland. It was shot with a Canadian crew while the filmmaker’s predecessor The Monkey was held up during the 2023 SAG/WGA strike.

In July of 2024, Longlegs from Perkins was an unexpected hit with a $22 million debut and $74 million overall domestic haul. The aforementioned Monkey followed earlier this year in February with $14 million at the outset and $39 million total. Expectations are considerably lower for Keeper with the caveat that this genre can always overperform. With that said, horror fans have plenty to see in 2025 and I’ll project mid single digits for this (similar to what Bring Her Back did early in the summer).

Keeper opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million

For my The Running Man prediction, click here:

The Running Man Box Office Prediction

For my Now You See: Now You Don’t prediction, click here:

Now You See Me: Now You Don’t Box Office Prediction

February 21-23 Box Office Predictions

The Monkey looks to swing a strong second place showing while The Unbreakable Boy hopes to break into the top five this weekend. Captain America: Brave New World should repeat in first. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

The Monkey Box Office Prediction
The Unbreakable Boy Box Office Prediction

Based on a Stephen King short story, The Monkey marks Osgood Perkins’s follow-up to last summer’s surprise hit Longlegs. I have this opening shy of $20 million which would put it in firmly in second.

Father-son drama The Unbreakable Boy with Zachary Levi seems like it’s getting dumped by distributor Lionsgate and my $3 million estimate puts it outside of the high 5.

Captain America: Brave New World performed in line with expectations over the Valentine’s/Presidents Day long weekend (more on that below). It also received the worst Cinemascore (B-) of any MCU title thus far. That could mean a decline in the mid 60s or even 70% (similar to the drop for Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania) could be at hand.

Paddington in Peru and Dog Man should each dip a spot to 3rd and 4th with Heart Eyes rounding out the top five.

Here’s how I envision it playing out:

1. Captain America: Brave New World

Predicted Gross: $29.6 million

2. The Monkey

Predicted Gross: $18.2 million

3. Paddington in Peru

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

4. Dog Man

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

5. Heart Eyes

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

Box Office Results (February 14-17)

Captain America: Brave New World was the 35th Marvel Cinematic Universe experience and it was the 35th to debut atop the charts. The Friday to Sunday traditional weekend gross was $89.8 million with $100 million when factoring in President’s Day. That’s not as commanding as plenty of other MCU fare, but it surpassed my respective $78.9 million and $90.7 million estimates. As mentioned, that troubling audience reaction should mean substantial drops ahead.

Paddington in Peru kicked off in second place with $12.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $16 million for the four-day compared to my projections of $14.8 million and $17 million. The film is making the bulk of its bounty overseas though it could experience smallish declines in upcoming frames (its Cinemascore was an A).

Dog Man was third with $13.4 million (I said $14.1 million) as the animated tale brought its three-week total to $70 million.

The biggest surprise of the weekend was horror comedy Heart Eyes actually increasing its gross in weekend #2 with $10.8 million for fourth position. My radar was way off as I only had it pegged at $5.8 million. The overall tally stands at $22 million.

Chinese animated fantasy Ne Zha 2 was fifth with $8.3 million and I did not do a projection for it. That towers over its 2019 predecessor which premiered to just over one million.

Finally, Mufasa: The Lion King was sixth with $5.3 million (I said $5 million) for $241 million in its nine weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Monkey Box Office Prediction

Neon looks for The Monkey to shine at the box office when it opens February 21st. Based on Stephen King’s 1980 short story, the horror flick is Osgood Perkins’ follow-up to his surprise hit Longlegs from last year. Theo James, Tatiana Maslany, Elijah Wood, Christian Convery, Colin O’Brien, Rohan Campbell, and Sarah Levy star.

Profitability shouldn’t be an issue considering the reported $10 million budget. Early reviews are at 87% on Rotten Tomatoes and 67 on Metacritic. In July of 2024, Longlegs kicked off to a robust $22 million on its way to a $74 million domestic haul.

There’s been lots of scary movies in recent weeks, but The Monkey could capitalize on its simple premise, decent buzz, and King/Perkins combo. It could get past what Longlegs accomplished though I’ll project under in the high teens or low 20s.

The Monkey opening weekend prediction: $18.2 million

For my The Unbreakable Boy prediction, click here:

The Unbreakable Boy Box Office Prediction

Longlegs Review

Longlegs is a more effective freak show than FBI story. The direction of Osgood Perkins often shows a mastery at building tension and establishing a chilling tone. When the final act arrives, I grew colder to its energy as the plot points became more recognizable. That might be a little misleading, however, since this does feature a bonkers performance even by Nicolas Cage’s standards. When the procedural itself becomes more standard, it can suffer.

Maika Monroe is Agent Lee Harker, who can’t have been in the Bureau for long but whose seemingly psychic abilities serve as an asset. The manhunt is on for Longlegs, a serial killer dabbling in the occult and intricate doll making. His young female victims also share birthdays that fall on the 14th of the month.

Set in the 90s as evidenced by the Bill Clinton portrait behind her superior’s desk, Agent Harker seems to share more than a psychic connection to the case. Her off-kilter mother (Alicia Witt) seems hung up on religious themes. You begin to suspect that the case may have relations with that woman.

Barely seen or heard in the trailers, Mr. Cage is the title character. Buried in makeup that could earn those artists awards nominations, this is Nic at his most uncaged. There are snippets of his work that will surely enter the Memeification Hall of Fame and there are aspects of his performance that certainly remind us of his wild versatility. It’s also occasionally challenging to look beyond the off the charts Caginess of it.

The short of it is that Longlegs works best when the mystery is unraveling and its secrets are obscured like Cage was in the ads. As more is revealed, it loses some edge. Yet there is no doubt that Perkins (son of Psycho Anthony Perkins) injects this with devilish details that provide anxiety, especially early on.

*** (out of four)

Longlegs Box Office Prediction

Neon hopes Longlegs lights up the box office this Friday. The 90s set horror thriller comes from director Osgood Perkins with Maika Monroe and Nicolas Cage (as a demented serial killer) headlining. Costars include Blair Underwood, Alicia Witt, and Kiernan Shipka.

Plenty of scary genre titles have struggled in 2024 though A Quiet Place: Day One got off to a loud start just two weeks ago. Buzz is solid for Longlegs with a 93% RT rating.

Out on approximately 2500 screens, a victory for the studio would be a $10M+ start. It might get there and I’ll give it the benefit of the doubt. That low double digits gross might put it in a race with the third weekend of Quiet for fourth place.

Longlegs opening weekend prediction: $11.6 million

For my Fly Me to the Moon prediction, click here:

Fly Me to the Moon Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Longlegs

Prior to its release on July 12th, Longlegs from Osgood Perkins is generating some loud buzz. The horror thriller stars It Follows actress Maika Monroe alongside Nicolas Cage as a doll making serial killer who’s barely glimpsed in the effective trailers. Blair Underwood, Alicia Witt, and Kiernan Shipka costar.

The Neon release is drawing some comparisons to The Silence of the Lambs and not just because it’s set in the 1990s. Lambs was an anomaly as the only horror flick to take BP and win Director, Actor, Actress, and Adapted Screenplay for good measure. This is not a genre that often resonates with the Academy and I suspect Longlegs won’t either despite the current 100% RT score. I would note that most reviews are not putting it in the Lambs league.

Critics are praising Cage for his creepy work. Don’t be surprised if Neon mounts a Supporting Actor campaign, but I highly doubt it will pan out in the long run. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…