Ahead of its Friday release, the embargo has lapsed for the eagerly awaited sequel Wicked: For Good and we are seeing just how popular or unpopular it is with critics. Jon M. Chu returns to direct alongside the cast of Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey, Ethan Slater, Bowen Yang, Marissa Bode, Michelle Yeoh, and Jeff Goldblum.
Based on the Broadway phenomenon, Good is expected to generate massive box office dollars. Will it be able to match or exceed the Oscar performance of its predecessor from last year? At the 97th Academy Awards, Wicked picked up 10 nominations – Best Picture, Actress (Erivo), Supporting Actress (Grande), Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. It won for Costume Design and Production Design.
We’ll get into all those in a second, but let’s start with the headline. As one of the final pieces to this grand awards puzzle, Good‘s reviews aren’t as strong as part 1’s. 2024’s original had 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and 73 on Metacritic. At the time of publication, RT for Good is 71% with Metacritic at 61.
In short, that makes its prospects murkier in most categories starting with BP. On Sunday when I posted my latest update, I dropped the follow-up from 6th to 8th in that race. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it slide further in my next update and I certainly don’t expect it to go up. Anywhere from 8-10 seems reasonable with the possibility that it could miss the cut. A Directing nod for Chu appears out of reach.
Since April when I did my first projections, I’ve had Erivo and Grande getting back to back noms as the Wicked Witch and Glinda the Good. That’s likely to continue though I’m less confident that they’re both slam dunk inclusions. Actress is crowded and Erivo faces tough competition. I think Grande in Supporting Actress is safer. She was probably runner-up for the victory last year when she fell short to Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez. Grande has been ranked 1st for months on this blog and I still believe she could make the podium walk. The mixed overall reaction opens up victory narratives for others, including Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another, Elle Fanning or Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass in Sentimental Value, and maybe even Amy Madigan for Weapons (though I’ve yet to predict her).
As for the tech races, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Production Design are close to shoo-in noms. I’m a little less assured about Sound and Visual Effects and far less so for Film Editing and Original Score.
Then there’s categories where the second helping of Wicked could pop up where Wicked did not. That includes original song. Universal is submitting “The Girl in the Bubble” and “No Place Like Home” for the tune derby. I included both in my quintet on Sunday. Some critical reaction indicates the new songs (in other words – not in the Broadway show) are not standouts. I still think one gets in (“Bubble”) but you never know.
The 98th Academy Awards marks the first year for the Best Casting prize. Had this existed last year, Wicked would have had 11 mentions instead of 10. Like most other races mentioned above, For Good making this list of five (or ten in BP) in tenuous.
Bottom line – the range of nominations for Wicked: For Good could be anywhere from 3 to maybe matching the 10 of Wicked in a best case scenario. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My first update in two weeks showcases stability in the major races as there’s no changes in Picture, Director, or the four acting races. However, within the categories, there is movement worth noting. Frankenstein is now up to 7th and, for the first time, I would be surprised if it’s not nominated.
The only significant movie not yet seen is Avatar: Fire and Ash. As we await screening word-of-mouth, I still have it in the BP ten at ninth. If it does not end up making the cut (unlike its two predecessors), keep an eye on The Secret Agent. I have it rising to its highest perch in 12th with lead Wagner Moura now third for Best Actor.
On the eve of its Friday premiere, Wicked: For Good slips from 6th to 8th in BP while Ariana Grande continues to top the Supporting Actress rankings. The actual review embargo lifts tomorrow and that could shift Wicked‘s placement in numerous competitions.
You can read all the movement below, including my projection that Netflix’s Train Dreams is on track for an Adapted Screenplay nod (taking out Netflix’s Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery).
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)
6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Bugonia (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Secret Agent (PR: 14) (+2)
13. No Other Choice (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (E)
8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)
5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Secret Agent (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Blue Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)
9. Is This Thing On? (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Life of Chuck
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sirât (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Love That Remains (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Scarlet (PR: 7) (+1)
7. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (-1)
8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 9) (E)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cover-Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Alabama Solution (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Seeds (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Tale of Silyan (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Deaf President Now! (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cutting Through Rocks
The Eyes of Ghana
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Hamnet (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)
9. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)
8. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Hedda (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Snow White (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+3)
7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-3)
9. No Other Choice (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Wolf Man (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Weapons (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Bugonia (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sentimental Value
A House of Dynamite
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (+1)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)
3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-2)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 9) (+2)
8. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 7) (-2)
5. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Warfare (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marty Supreme
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Tron: Ares (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Mickey 17 (PR: 8) (-1)
10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (E)
That means I have these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
13 Nominations
One Battle After Another
12 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
10 Nominations
Hamnet
9 Nominations
Marty Supreme
7 Nominations
Sentimental Value
6 Nominations
Frankenstein, Jay Kelly
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident
2 Nominations
F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Bugonia, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Zootopia 2
The animated futuristic fantasy Arco is out in limited fashion domestically this weekend for an Oscar qualifying run before a nationwide expansion early next year. From filmmaker Ugo Bienvenu, the Neon title premiered at Cannes in May with a voice cast including Margot Ringard Oldra, Oscar Tresanini, Swann Arlaud, and Alma Jodorowsky. The English dub’s faces behind the mic include Romy Fay, Juliano Krue Valdi, Will Ferrell, America Ferrera, Mark Ruffalo, Andy Samberg, and Natalie Portman (who also produces).
Critics have been consistently complimentary with 92% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 75 Metacritic. Those numbers should be enough for this to make the Best Animated Feature quintet where I’ve had it predicted for some time. A win narrative is trickier as it is probably behind cultural phenomenon KPop Demon Hunters and the forthcoming Zootopia 2 (which has encouraging WOM and the Disney marketing muscle). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Six years after her feature Honeyland was nominated for Best International Feature Film and Best Documentary Feature, Tamara Kotevska will try to achieve the same with follow-up The Tale of Silyan. The Macedonian production marks the filmmaker’s first solo effort as Ljubomir Stefanov was her partner on previous works.
Centered on a farmer nursing an injured stork back to life, Silyan played the Venice Film Festival and was picked up by National Geographic domestically. Reviews are impressive with 100% on RT and an 84 Metacritic. A limited (and Oscar qualifying) run arrives November 28th followed by a Disney+ release. Macedonia has already announced it as their selection for the international competition.
The combo of Nat Geo and the Mouse House campaigning could bode well for its prospects. I’ve yet to list this in either IFF or Doc Feature as a possibility, but that might change with my next update. I do feel it has a stronger shot in the latter as IFF is plenty crowded already. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
H Is for Hawk is based on an acclaimed 2014 memoir by Helen MacDonald with Claire Foy playing the author. Philippa Lowthorne directs the drama with a supporting cast including Brendan Gleeson, Denise Gough, Sam Spruell, and Lindsay Duncan. Slated for domestic distribution by Roadside Attractions in December, Hawk has already played the Telluride and London festivals.
Rotten Tomatoes is at 82% based on the few reviews out. While write-ups for the film are more on the positive with reservations side, Foy is being lauded. The Emmy winner for The Crown likely came very close to an Academy nom in Supporting Actress for 2018’s First Man. However, Roadside is not known for attracting awards voters in their campaigns. I’ve yet to have Foy in my top 10 possibilities for lead Actress. Unless precursors surprisingly start including her, don’t expect that to change. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Running Man is tracking to open atop the box office this weekend with Glen Powell in the title role. The futuristic action thriller remakes the 1987 original starring Arnold Schwarzenegger, itself was based on a 1982 Stephen King novel. Edgar Wright directs with a supporting cast including William H. Macy, Lee Pace, Michael Cera, Emilia Jones, Daniel Ezra, Jayme Lawson, Colman Domingo, and Josh Brolin.
Reviews aren’t as encouraging as what greeted last weekend’s Predator: Badlands (another effort with roots in Ah-nuld 80s releases). Rotten Tomatoes is at 66% with 59 on Metacritic. Like Badlands, the only awards race worth mentioning for Running is Visual Effects. Nothing from the early reaction indicates it has any realistic shot at contending there. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Based on a 2016 graphic novel by Isabel Greenberg, the historical fantasy 100 Nights of Hero played the Venice Film Festival and closed London’s as it moves toward a December 5th domestic release. Julia Jackman directs and adapted the source material for the big screen with Emma Corrin, Nicholas Galitzine, Maika Monroe, Amir El-Masry, Charli XCX, Richard E. Grant, and Felicity Jones in the cast.
Many critics are appreciating what’s called a feminist fable to the tune of 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Metacritic stands at 70 which illustrates the more measured tone of some reviews. IFC is distributing and they don’t exactly have a track record when it comes to awards campaigning. So while a down-the-line race like Production Design might be a possibility in the care of another studio, I don’t think Hero will be on the minds of voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
In Your Dreams is in limited theatrical release this weekend before its Netflix streaming premiere on November 14th. The animated comedic adventure marks the directorial debut of Alex Woo with a voice cast including Jolie Hoang-Rappaport, Elias Janssen, Craig Robinson, Simu Liu, and Cristin Milioti.
Some reviews are complimentary with 79% on Rotten Tomatoes though Metacritic is at a more earthbound 56. Perhaps once seen as the streamer’s most viable contender in Best Animated Feature, that designation has been grabbed by cultural phenomenon KPop Demon Hunters. I doubt Dreams will make the quintet. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Predator: Badlands is the ninth overall installment in the nearly 40-year-old franchise and the third in a row from director Dan Trachtenberg. Opening Friday, it follows up 2022’s Prey and this summer’s Predator: Killer of Killers. Elle Fanning stars alongside Dimitrius Schuster-Koloamatangi and Mike Homik.
Prey and Killers received impressive reviews with respective 94% and 95% Tomato meters and 71/78 scores on Metacritic. Badlands is lagging behind though not by much with 88% on RT and 69 for Meta.
In 1987, Predator starring the future Governors of California and Minnesota had a 50% chance to win Best Visual Effects, but lost to sole competitor Innerspace. VE is the only race where Badlands could materialize. If so, it would continue a recent trend of entries in long existing franchises (No Time to Die, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Alien: Romulus) nabbing slots. I’ve yet to list this in my top 10 possibilities. So while I’m skeptical it makes the quintet, it is not an impossibility and don’t be surprised if it pops up in the bottom rungs of my VE hopefuls when I do my next update. My Oscar prediction posts will continue…
It’s been three weeks (!) since I’ve updated my Oscar predictions, but there was prognosticating activity in the meantime. I did deep dives on Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. If you missed those write-ups, you can find them here:
Now that November is here, there are some notable shifts with Frankenstein back in the BP top 10 and Bugonia falling out. In fact, I only have Bugonia getting a solo nod in Adapted Screenplay. Amanda Seyfried returns to the Actress quintet with Emma Stone dropping.
That’s better than Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere which I have blanking on nomination morning. That means Jeremy Allen White is on the outside looking in with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) taking his spot. Jeremy Strong’s Supporting Actor work in Nowhere is nowhere in the top 5 with Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another) elevating.
Only Director and Supporting Actress stay intact in the biggies while we see shifting #1’s in Production Design, Sound, and a different selected song for Wicked: For Good in the pole position. You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Bugonia (PR: 10) (-1)
12. No Other Choice (PR: 12) (E)
13. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Secret Agent (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (+4)
5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (E)
8. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (E)
10. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)
9. Is This Thing On? (PR: 6) (-3)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Weapons
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Song Song Blue
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sirât (PR: 7) (E)
8. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Love That Remains (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Arco (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (E)
7. Scarlet (PR: 7) (E)
8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 9) (E)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters from Andrivka (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Cover-Up (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Seeds (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 6) (E)
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Orwell 2 + 2 = 5
The Librarians
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Train Dreams (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)
9. Bugonia (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)
9. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Snow White (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
The Phoenician Scheme
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)
7. F1 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. No Other Choice (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sentimental Value (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Weapons (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Wolf Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-4)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (E)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (+4)
2. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (E)
3. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-2)
4. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 10) (+3)
10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Sinners (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-2)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Blue Moon (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Phoenician Scheme
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Warfare (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Tron: Ares (PR: 6) (-3)
10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (-1)
And that leaves the following movies receiving these numbers of nominations:
13 Nominations
One Battle After Another
12 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominations
Hamnet, Wicked: For Good
9 Nominations
Marty Supreme
7 Nominations
Sentimental Value
6 Nominations
Frankenstein, Jay Kelly
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident
2 Nominations
F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent
1 Nominations
28 Years Later, 2000 Meter from Andrivka, Arco, Blue Moon, Bugonia, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zooptopia 2
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