As the fall movie season officially gets underway, that means a host of Oscar contenders will be opening between September and December, with many of them screening at upcoming film festivals – including Toronto, Telluride, New York, and Venice. What does that mean? My first round of Oscar predictions has arrived at the blog!
You may say it seems too early to start predicting Oscar nominees? This is true… to a point. At this same time last year, I did my first early predictions. In today’s first category – Supporting Actress – those predictions yielded three out of the five nominees, including Lupita Nyong’o from Twelve Years a Slave, the eventual winner. For followers of my blog, you’ll know that I’ll be consistently refining and updating my predictions until nominations are announced in early 2015.
Today – we begin with Supporting Actress. Tomorrow: Supporting Actor. Sunday: Actress. Monday: Actor. Tuesday: Director. Wednesday: Picture.
We’ll keep it simple for the early predictions. I will just list my round of five that I’m currently predicting along with a subsection of other possible nominees. Enjoy!
Todd’s Early Best Supporting Actress Predictions
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
Laura Dern, Wild
Carmen Ejogo, Selma
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Other Possible Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, Interstellar
Jennifer Garner, Men, Women, and Children
Anne Hathaway, Interstellar
Anna Kendrick, Into the Woods
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Vanessa Redgrave, Foxcatcher
Maya Rudolph, Inherent Vince
Emma Stone, Birdman
Katherine Waterston, Inherent Vice
Emily Watson, The Theory of Everything
Naomi Watts, St. Vincent
Oprah Winfrey, Selma
That’s all for now, folks! I’ll be back with my early guesstimates for Supporting Actor tomorrow…
Today the Venice Film Festival kicked off and immediately there is major Oscar news to pass along in the form of Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s Birdman, which opens domestically on October 17th. The film was already considered a potential Academy Awards contender and its premiere more than solidified that status. Early reviews are fantastic.
The advance word today has put me in the unique position of making some rare declarative statements in late August, considered very early in the Oscar season when most contenders have yet to be seen. However, based on the buzz emanating from Italy – I give you these all but guarantees:
Birdman will be nominated for Best Picture
Its director Inarritu will be nominated for Best Director
Its star Michael Keaton will be nominated for Best Actor
The comedy/drama comes from acclaimed director Inarritu, whose other efforts include Amores perros, 21 Grams, and Babel (which was nominated for multiple Oscars in 2006). Besides his directing nomination, expect him and his cowriters to be recognized in the Original Screenplay category.
Birdman focuses on an aging actor best known for playing a superhero… a role Michael Keaton seems tailor made for. And the reviews suggest this is Keaton’s finest role yet. He seems a shoo-in to earn his second Best Actor nomination… some 26 years after his first for Clean and Sober.
As for supporting players, costars Edward Norton and Emma Stone appear to be strong possibilities in the Supporting Actor and Actress races, though their nominations don’t seem quite as assured as Keaton’s. At least not yet. It would mark Norton’s third nod after 1996’s Primal Fear and 1998’s American History X and the first for Stone.
Birdman becomes the third 2014 release that are highly likely to compete in the biggest race of all – Picture. The other two: Boyhood and Foxcatcher and you can read my detailed posts on each of them here:
The summer of 2014 is heading towards its closure and that means school, football, and the Fall Movie Season is ahead of us! As many know, the months of September through December is when studios typically save up their major Oscar contenders and that is certainly the case this year. As for what’s been released pre-fall, Richard Linklater’s Boyhood is the only shoo-in for a Best Picture nomination (it could win too) while Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel currently has a decent shot.
This brings us to my personal top ten most anticipated films being released in the final four months of the year. Some of my choices are Oscar hopefuls while others are not. I’ll get to my first round of inappropriately early Academy Award nomination predictions very soon on the blog. In the meantime, here’s the pics that this blogger is most looking forward to:
10. St. Vincent
Release Date: October 24
This comedy/drama had me at the actor headlining the cast: Bill Murray. He plays an irresponsible war veteran who befriends a young boy. Melissa McCarthy and Naomi Watts costar. If it’s good, expect Oscar buzz for Mr. Murray and Ms. Watts in the Supporting Actress race.
9. The Interview
Release Date: December 25
When Seth Rogen and James Franco have teamed up, it’s led to two hilarious comedies: Pineapple Express and This is the End. Here’s hoping the trend continues where they play two journalists given the task of assassinating Kim Jong-Un.
8. Big Eyes
Release Date: December 25
Tim Burton has seemed to be on autopilot lately with lackluster pics like Alice in Wonderland and Dark Shadows. This could change that in the true life tale of a man (Christoph Waltz) who fraudulently claims credit for his wife’s (Amy Adams) bestselling paintings. Oscar buzz could follow if this one if it delivers.
**No trailer released at press time
7. Birdman
Release Date: October 17
Not a biography of the tattooed Miami Heat player – rather Birdman stars Michael Keaton in what could be a huge comeback role. He plays an actor most known for playing an iconic superhero, which shouldn’t be much of a stretch. Edward Norton, Naomi Watts, Emma Stone, and Zach Galifinakis round out the ensemble and it’s directed by Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, who brought us 21 Grams and Babel.
6. Dumb and Dumber To
Release Date: November 14
Whether or not the return of Harry (Jeff Daniels) and Lloyd (Jim Carrey) nearly 20 years after the iconic original works is an open question, but you can be damn sure I’ll be in the theater to find out.
5. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1
Release Date: November 21
Catching Fire improved upon an already first-rate original in the franchise so I’m pumped to see the series continue. It also serves as one of our final opportunities to see the great Philip Seymour Hoffman.
4. Inherent Vice
Release Date: December 12
Anytime Paul Thomas Anderson makes a film, it’s noteworthy given his filmography includes Boogie Nights, Magnolia, There Will Be Blood, and The Master. This private detective tale stars Joaquin Phoenix, Josh Brolin, Owen Wilson, and Reese Witherspoon.
**No trailer released at press time
3. Foxcatcher
Release Date: November 14
Director Bennett Miller has seen both his features, Capote and Moneyball, earn Best Picture nominations. Advance word is that this will as well. The true story of John du Pont’s (Steve Carell) obsession with a pair of wrestlers (Channing Tatum and Mark Ruffalo) is generating Academy Award chatter for all three actors.
2. Gone Girl
Release Date: October 3
One of the very best directors working today David Fincher adapts Gillian Flynn’s bestselling murder mystery novel. Ben Affleck, Rosamund Pike (in a role likely to earn Oscar buzz), Tyler Perry, and Neil Patrick Harris star.
1. Interstellar
Christopher Nolan has given us the acclaimed Dark Knight trilogy and Inception. In his latest, recent Oscar winner Matthew McConaughey is tasked with no less than saving the world. Anne Hathaway, Jessica Chastain, and (of course) Michael Caine costar. Expect amazing visuals at the very least.
And that’s my top ten, folks. See you at the movies!
It’s not out until Friday but the James Brown biopic Get On Up has so far been earning very solid reviews, especially for its star Chadwick Boseman. The actor became well-known to audiences last year for his portrayal of another real-life figure, Jackie Robinson, in 42. His well-received turn in that part and critical lauds for Up could mean Boseman’s chances for a Best Actor nomination are decent.
Obviously the race is in its early stages though, based on festival buzz, you can bet Steve Carell will earn one of the five spots for Foxcatcher. Everything else is currently uncertain. A win or nomination for an actor playing a musical legend is nothing new. In 2004, Jamie Foxx took the prize playing Ray Charles in Ray. The following year, Reese Witherspoon won Best Actress as June Carter Cash in Walk the Line and Joaquin Phoenix was nominated as Johnny Cash. Other past nominees include Gary Busey in The Buddy Holly Story, Angela Bassett and Laurence Fishburne in the Tina Turner pic What’s Love Got to Do With It?, Diana Ross as Billie Holiday in Lady Sings the Blues, Jessica Lange as Patsy Cline in Sweet Dreams, and a win for Sissy Spacek as Loretta Lynn in Coal Miner’s Daughter.
If the movie turns out to be a huge hit, it might even stand a chance for a Best Picture nomination. However, that currently appears to be a long shot. Boseman’s chances are much greater and his name is one to remember come nomination time next year.
Director Richard Linklater has been a critics darling for over two decades since his acclaimed 1991 debut Slacker. His second picture Dazed and Confused is now considered an American classic. And there’s his critically beloved trilogy of Before Sunrise, Before Sunset, and Before Midnight in addition to Waking Life, School of Rock, Fast Food Nation, and Bernie.
What does his filmography currently have in common? None have received a great deal of attention from the Academy and not one has received a Best Picture or Director nomination. This could potentially change with Linklater’s latest effort Boyhood.
The pic premiered at the Sundance Film Festival in January and just opened this weekend in limited release. The shooting of Boyhood is unique. Linklater shot the film over a nearly 12 year period and it focuses on the life of a boy (Ellar Coltrane) from childhood to adulthood. Ethan Hawke and Patricia Arquette play his divorced parents.
Critics have been absolutely over the moon on it. Based on 97 reviews, Boyhood stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes with Rolling Stone‘s Peter Travers calling it the best movie of the year so far. Richard Roeper has referred to it as one of the greatest pictures he’s ever seen.
The question of Boyhood‘s Oscar viability may come down to how much mainstream exposure it receives. However, based on reviews alone, this stands the best chance of any of Linklater’s catalogue to receive a Best Picture and Director nomination, as well as Actor (Coltrane), Supporting Actor (Hawke), and Supporting Actress (Arquette).
It’s still mighty early in the year to be talking about Oscar contenders as probably nearly 100% have yet to be released. I’ve already touched on the somewhat longshot prospects of The Grand Budapest Hotel and the very likely possibility of this fall’s Foxcatcher receiving nods (Steve Carell is a shoo-in). You can read those posts here:
However, this weekend brings the film adaptation of John Green’s wildly popular novel The Fault in Our Stars. The pic appears to be headed towards a massive opening weekend and it sits at a rock solid 83% on Rotten Tomatoes.
So is there any chance this could be nominated for Best Picture? Truth be told – not much of one. Then again it’s hard to gauge right now because we don’t know how strong this autumn’s offerings will be. If Fault is a mega-grosser and a good portion of the fall hopefuls disappoint, the stars could align.
While I’m not high on the film’s chances at Best Picture, a Best Actress nomination for Shailene Woodley seems more feasible. The actress has already been in the mix of awards discussions for 2011’s The Descendants and 2013’s The Spectacular Now and she’s yet to be nominated. Woodley had a hit earlier this spring with Divergent and she’s drawn rave reviews for this. I wouldn’t bank on her receiving a Best Actress nod, but it’s certainly possible.
As always, I’ll update my Oscar hopefuls as they come out!
The Best Picture race for next year’s Oscars has officially begun with the screening of Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher at the Cannes Film Festival. A couple of months back, I wrote a post suggesting the longshot possibility that The Grand Budapest Hotel could nab a nomination. It’s still certainly possible, but unlikely as the real heavyweights for consideration will hit this fall and winter.
There’s nothing unlikely about Foxcatcher‘s chances. The pic is directed by Bennett Miller, whose last two features (2005’s Capote and 2011’s Moneyball) both scored Best Picture nods. It focuses on the true story of Schultz brothers Mark (Channing Tatum) and Dave (Mark Ruffalo) and their relationship with schizophrenic John du Pont (Steve Carell). Reviews coming out of Cannes have been magnificent. To say this is the first surefire Oscar contender is an understatement.
Its significant Best Picture (and Director) chances aside, critics have been truly over the moon regarding Carell’s work – so much so that Variety declared his nomination a “lock”. Director Miller’s films have given the late Philip Seymour Hoffman a Best Actor win for Capote and Brad Pitt a nomination in the same category for Moneyball. The consensus for Carell is that this will be the role that changes his career from dependable comic everyman to serious dramatic actor. This is also familiar territory for Miller: it was Moneyball that significantly changed Jonah Hill’s career trajectory and also earned him first Oscar nomination. It is unclear yet whether Sony Pictures Classics will campaign Carell in the Actor or Supporting Actor race. Tatum is reportedly the star and it sounds like his chances to score a nod are also on the upswing. Either way, based on today’s reaction alone, you can use pen to fill Carell’s name for Academy recognition and not pencil.
The bad news for us? We have to wait until November to see the film as it opens stateside November 14.
Rocky over Taxi Driver. Ordinary People over Raging Bull. Dances with Wolves over GoodFellas. These are all examples where, in hindsight, pictures directed by Martin Scorsese and the auteur himself probably should have received Oscars wins and not just nominations. In 2002, Scorsese’s Gangs of New York was seen as a Best Picture frontrunner until Chicago stole its thunder. The same held true two years later with The Aviator until Clint Eastwood’s Million Dollar Baby had a late surge and took the prize. By 2006, Scorsese was undoubtedly the most acclaimed director whose films had never won the gold statue. And neither had he.
This would finally come to an end with The Departed, his crime thriller that won Best Picture and this kicks off my 2006 Oscar History.
The other four nominees were Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu’s Babel, Clint Eastwood’s Letters from Iwo Jima, Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Feris’s Little Miss Sunshine, and Stephen Frears’s The Queen. The voters got it right. The Departed was the Best Picture of the year.
As for other pictures I would’ve considered: Alfonso Cuaron’s terrific Children of Men, Guillermo del Toro’s visual feast Pan’s Labyrinth, the Ryan Gosling drama Half Nelson, and Todd Field’s Little Children. And for an outside the box pic – why not Casino Royale, which brought the Bond franchise back in grand fashion and ranks as my 2nd all-time 007 pic after From Russia with Love?
Scorsese, as mentioned before, would win Director over Inarritu, Eastwood, Frears, and Paul Greengrass for United 93. Once again – my list would’ve found room for Cuaron and del Toro.
In the Best Actor race, Forest Whitaker expectedly won for his performance as Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland. Other nominees: Leonardo DiCaprio for Blood Diamond (many thought he’d get nominated instead for Departed), Ryan Gosling for Half Nelson, Peter O’Toole for Venus (his final nomination), and Will Smith for The Pursuit of Happyness.
Once again, my ballot might’ve listed Daniel Craig for his electric take on James Bond. Others to consider: Clive Owen (Children of Men), Aaron Eckhart (Thank You for Smoking), or Matt Damon’s work in The Departed.
No surprise in the Best Actress race as Helen Mirren’s work as Queen Elizabeth II was honored in The Queen over Penelope Cruz (Volver), Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal), Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada), and Kate Winslet (Little Children).
That’s a strong Actress category, but I would’ve also had Natalie Portman’s fine performance in V for Vendetta included.
The only true surprise at the 2006 Oscars occurred in the Supporting Actor category where Eddie Murphy’s acclaimed work in Dreamgirls was expected to win. Instead the Academy honored Alan Arkin’s performance in Little Miss Sunshine. Other nominees: Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children), Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond), and Mark Wahlberg (The Departed).
Instead of Wahlberg, many believed it would be Jack Nicholson for Departed that received the nomination. I was cool with it – considering Nicholson had already won three times before and this marked Wahlberg’s first nod. Other names I would have possibly included: Steve Carell (Little Miss Sunshine), Stanley Tucci (The Devil Wears Prada), Michael Sheen (The Queen), and for his brilliant comedic work – John C. Reilly in Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby.
Jennifer Hudson had the distinction of being the first “American Idol” contestant turned Oscar winner with her lauded role in Dreamgirls – winning out over Babel actresses Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi, young Abigail Breslin from Little Miss Sunshine, and Cate Blanchett in Notes on a Scandal.
My list would have absolutely included Shareeka Epps with her fabulous work in Half Nelson and probably Vera Farmiga in The Departed.
And that’s your 2006 Oscar history! I’ll be back soon with 2007 where another beloved director (s) would take home their first Oscar gold.
Yes, the Oscar ceremony celebrating the best of film in 2013 was just four days ago. Yes, it’s entirely too early to start speculating on next year’s Oscars.
Or perhaps not because tomorrow brings us what could be the first legitimate Oscar contender of 2014. It comes in the form of Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel.
Director/writer Anderson has a very loyal following that include most critics. Some of his acclaimed works include Bottle Rocket, Rushmore, The Royal Tenenbaums, Fantastic Mr. Fox, and Moonrise Kingdom. All were favorites in the critical community. None have received a Best Picture nomination.
There may a feeling that Anderson is due and Budapest could be that movie. It stands at a solid 87% so far on Rotten Tomatoes. It also has one heckuva cast – with lead Ralph Fiennes joining Adrien Brody, Willem Dafoe, Jeff Goldblum, Harvey Keitel, Jude Law, Bill Murray, Edward Norton, Saoirse Ronan, Jason Schwarztman, Tilda Swinton, Tom Wilkinson, and Owen Wilson. In early reviews, Fiennes has particularly been singled out and we could hear his name mentioned as a Best Actor candidate.
The picture has a great shot at a Best Original Screenplay nomination where Anderson has been nominated twice before for Tenenbaums and Kingdom. It goes without saying, but there’s no way to currently know how good a year 2014 will turn out to be. It’s not even out yet, but I’ll say with confidence that Budapest wouldn’t have been nominated in 2013.
However, 2013 was a rather strong year. With the combination of an overdue feeling for Anderson and current positive buzz, this is 2014’s first Oscar contender.
After five posts predicting the other major categories for this year’s Academy Awards, we’ve arrived at the biggest race of all: Best Picture. Here are the nine nominees:
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
As I see it, there are three films that stand a realistic chance at taking home the gold. Those three do not include Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Her, Nebraska, Philomena, or The Wolf of Wall Street.
That leaves us with American Hustle, Gravity, and 12 Years a Slave.
While I have predicted that Alfonso Cuaron will win Best Director for Gravity (a pick I’m highly confident in), the chances of his picture winning are much more slim. While it was a hit with audiences and critics – the sci-fi epic has won no major precursors to speak of. Its recognition should come to Cuaron and in various technical categories.
American Hustle certainly has plenty of fans and director David O. Russell has been on a heckuva hot streak. The pic stands the second best chance of being the victor.
However, the fact is that Steve McQueen’s 12 Years a Slave is undeniably the frontrunner and it has been for awhile. Slave has won a slew of precursors, including the Golden Globe for Best Drama. From an odds perspective, I’d put it this way:
12 Years a Slave: 75% chance of winning
American Hustle: 20% chance of winning
Gravity: 5% chance of winning
Predicted Winner: 12 Years a Slave
For a full breakdown of my picks, here ya go:
Picture – 12 Years a Slave
Director – Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Actor – Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Actress – Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Supporting Actor – Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Supporting Actress – Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Next weekend – I’ll have my final predictions in all categories before the big show. If any of the six major ones change in the next week (unlikely), I’ll act accordingly. Until then!
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