Oscar Watch: Finding Dory

When it come to their movies getting nominated for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars, Pixar is in a class by itself. This specific category was created in 2001. Of the 15 pictures that have won, 8 have come from Pixar. They include 2004’s The Incredibles, 2007’s Ratatouille, 2008’s Wall-E, 2009’s Up, 2010’s Toy Story 3, 2012’s Brave, and 2015’s Inside Out.

And the first Pixar pic to claim the prize? 2003’s Finding Nemo and its long in the works sequel Finding Dory is out Friday. Will Dory become the 9th studio entry to take home the gold statue? After all, it has a glowing 94% Rotten Tomatoes score and could be the summer’s biggest hit.

Well… Not so fast. It’s also worth noting that in 2013 and 2014, two traditional Disney animated flicks took the Oscar with Frozen and Big Hero 6. While Finding Dory will unquestionably score a nomination, its main competition appears now to be Zootopia. That Disney animated traditional title, released in March, became a box office phenomenon itself (a billion worldwide) and holds an even better 98% RT rating. I would maintain that the animals of Zootopia currently hold the edge, with Dory swimming a bit behind it.

 

Oscar Watch: Love & Friendship

In 1990, writer/director Whit Stillman had a major critical success with Metropolitan that led to a Best Original Screenplay for him at the Oscars. Over a quarter century later, Mr. Stillman could find himself on the Academy’s radar screen again with Love & Friendship. The romantic comedy is based on the book Lady Susan by Jane Austen. Starring Kate Beckinsale, Chloe Sevigny and Stephen Fry, the film holds a 99% Rotten Tomatoes rating and has grossed over $4 million domestically on less than 500 screens.

If its box office grosses continue to hold well over the next few weeks, Oscar voters may take notice. None of the actors are likely to be factors for nods. Truth be told, this is probably a long shot for attention. Still – 2016 has yet to produce many awards contenders and Love & Friendship is at least worthy of mention.

Oscar Watch: Hands of Stone

Having premiered at the Cannes Film Festival yesterday, the boxing biopic Hands of Stone hopes to be the next film in that genre to garner Oscar attention, much like Rocky, Raging Bull, and The Fighter before it.

The pic focuses on the legendary Roberto Duran, played here by Edgar Ramirez and casts Robert De Niro as his trainer Ray Arcel. Of course, Mr. De Niro won his only lead Actor gold statue for his lauded role as Jake La Motta in Martin Scorsese’s Raging Bull in 1980 and he would competing here for Supporting Actor.

Hmmm. A legendary actor with an acclaimed pugilist picture to his credit maybe making a return to the Red Carpet? Sounds a bit like last year when Sylvester Stallone was nominated for Supporting Actor for Creed and surprisingly lost to Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies. In order for Hands of Stone to receive serious Academy attention for the big race (Picture), it would’ve needed even better reviews than Creed. While early reviews are fairly solid, that didn’t happen and you can pretty much count out that possibility. Same goes for Ramirez in Actor.

As for De Niro, the Weinstein Company (who are no slouches at awards campaigning) may pull out all the stops for their actor being recognized. It’s unlikely to occur, however. The great story with Stallone was the near 40 year lay-off between nominations and the connection with him playing the same role being recognized so many decades apart. De Niro, on the other hand, was just nominated four years ago for his work in Silver Linings Playbook. 

While Hands of Stone (being released domestically on August 26) could be a mid-size hit come late summer, Cannes has shown it’s improbable that it’ll be on the minds of Academy voters.

 

Oscar Watch: Loving

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Earlier this year, I wrote an Oscar Watch post for the Jeff Nichols sci-fi drama Midnight Special, which premiered to mostly positive feedback at the Berlin Film Festival. Yet since then – it was released to soft box office numbers and its awards prospects have considerably dimmed.

Nichols, director of acclaimed pics such as Take Shelter and Mud, may have another Oscar ace up his sleeve though as Special is not his only 2016 feature. His 1950s set interracial romance Loving has just premiered at the Cannes Film Festival and early word is encouraging. Joel Edgerton and Ruth Negga star as a Virginia couple whose marital union was illegal at the time. Both performances are garnering strong notices and it’s possible that both could find themselves factors in the Actor and Actress categories. Frequent Nichols collaborator Michael Shannon has a supporting role that’s said to be too small for any legit chance in Supporting Actor.

Helping even further, Focus Features has set a U.S. release date of November 4, right in the heart of Oscar season. If Loving is able to break through with audiences in the way it’s currently doing with the festival crowd overseas, it could find itself receiving Academy love in the Picture and Director races, too. Time will tell.

Oscar Watch: Florence Foster Jenkins

When Meryl Streep is starring in any movie, it’s automatic for Oscar prognosticators to take notice. Such is the case with Florence Foster Jenkins, the comedic drama biopic of an opera singer known for her awful voice. Streep is the title character.

The pic, directed by The Queen’s Stephen Frears and co-starring Hugh Grant, will be released in the United Kingdom in early May but won’t get its domestic release until late August. So while American audiences will have to wait awhile, critics have not. Early word is quite positive and Streep has once again been singled out for her work. It’s also said the be quite a crowd pleaser and that could only increase the likelihood that its star receives her 20th — yes, 20th — Oscar nod.

Oscar Watch: The Jungle Book

Disney has been on a binge remaking their animated classics as of late with 2014’s Maleficent and 2015’s Cinderella. Both were huge hits. This looks to extend to 2016 when Jon Favreau’s The Jungle Book opens Friday.

That this remake of the 1967 animated tale and Rudyard Kipling’s written works is headed for box office domination isn’t so surprising. What is a bit surprising is the rapturous critical reaction Jungle has garnered. It sits at 91% on Rotten Tomatoes at press time.

This begs the question: could The Jungle Book swing its way into the hearts of Oscar voters? It’s only April, but the overall gushing reaction can’t hurt. Obviously we’re early in the Academy season to say the least. And truth be told, Book probably won’t find itself among the five to ten pics recognized.

Where might it get more attention for a gold statue nod? Well, critics have been over the moon on its visual effects. While plenty more summer blockbusters and some fall releases will be strong contenders in that race, early Jungle notices could make it hard to ignore.

Oscar Watch: Everybody Wants Some!!

This past week, Richard Linklater’s latest pic Everybody Wants Some!! came out in limited release and critical reaction has been strong. This has become typical for its director, who previous effort Boyhood received much Oscar attention (eventually losing in 2014 to Birdman).

His new effort is described as a “spiritual sequel” to his 1993 acclaimed cult classic Dazed and Confused. The 1980s set comedy features a cast of unknowns, though that might not be for long. You’ll recall that the “unknowns” from the aforementioned Dazed included Ben Affleck, Matthew McConaughey, Joey Lauren Adams, Milla Jovovich, and Parker Posey. Everybody currently has a Rotten Tomatoes score of 90%.

So what does this all mean for its Oscar prospects? I would say this stands at outside shot at Best Picture and Director attention, though it’s probably unlikely. Where Some!! could shine is in the Original Screenplay category for Linklater. If so, it would mark his fourth nomination in the writing races (for Boyhood and Before Sunset and Before Midnight). That would appear to be its best chance at Academy attention several months down the road and it’d be foolish to count this celebrated director out.

Oscar Watch: Hello, My Name Is Doris

This past weekend, comedic drama Hello, My Name Is Doris impressed box office observers by making nearly a million dollars on just 128 screens. The film premiered at the SXSW Film Fesitval days ago to positive response with a current rating of 85% on Rotten Tomatoes.

The bulk of the film’s praise has been devoted to its lead star, Sally Field, playing an older woman romancing a younger man. If distributor Roadside Attractions is able to mount a credible campaign, Field could find herself in line for her fourth nomination in just under 40 years. In 1979, she was victorious in Best Actress for her title role in Norma Rae and in 1984, won again for Places in the Heart. In 2012, she was nominated in Supporting Actress in Lincoln. 

This is highly likely to be the only category where Doris could be a factor. Costars including Max Greenfield, Stephen Root, Natasha Lyonne, and Tyne Daly shouldn’t garner attention. While reviews are strong, March is awfully early in the Academy’s season and her inclusion may depend on how solid the race for Actress becomes (a question mark currently).

That said, Field is a beloved performer whose track record with the Academy has been sterling over four decades. They’re capable of liking her – really, really liking her. It’d be foolish to completely count her out.

Oscar Watch: Zootopia and Sausage Party

Two wildly different 2016 animated features could both find themselves in the Best Animated Feature category come Oscar time next year.

The first is Disney’s Zootopia, which has ruled the box office kingdom for the last two weeks and looks to reach an eventual gross of $275-$300 million domestically. With a fantastic 99% Rotten Tomatoes score and bragging rights for being the biggest opener of all time for a traditionally animated tale, there is little doubt it will be among the five nominees. It could even win, though its biggest competitor might be Disney/Pixar’s Finding Nemo sequel Finding Dory, which is out this summer.

Our second possibility is Sausage Party, which screened in a rough cut at the South by Southwest Festival last night. Billed as the first hard R rated CG flick, Party comes from the minds of Seth Rogen and his writing/producing partner Evan Goldberg. In addition to Mr. Rogen, featured voices include Kristin Wiig, Jonah Hill, Michael Cera, James Franco, Danny McBride, Craig Robinson, Edward Norton, and Salma Hayek. It’s not out until August, but word of mouth from the festival is strong and this looks to be a potential sleeper hit come summer. This isn’t your typical animated material that the Academy would recognize, but it might be tough for them to ignore.

We’ll see how this race plays out as more competition is released in the coming months, but we may already have a couple of major possibilities in the mix.

16 for ’16: Oscar Contenders

The Academy Awards honoring the best of 2015 aired just over a week ago. So what does that mean? Well, it means that it’s time for incredibly early Oscar speculation on the films and performers that could factor into next year’s ceremony.

This evening on the blog, I take a look at 16 pictures that may find themslves in contention a year from now. Obviously, this is about as premature as it gets and there will be LOTS more speculation as the year rolls along. Yet here’s a first look at 16 for ’16 Oscar potentials:

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Release Date: November 11

Ang Lee has directed four Best Picture nominees over the past two decades and received two wins for his direction (Brokeback Mountain, Life of Pi). This Iraq War themed drama (based on a well received novel) featuring newcomer Joe Alwyn and familiar faces Garrett Hedlund, Kristen Stewart, Vin Diesel, Steve Martin, and Chris Tucker is highly likely to receive some chatter.

The Birth of a Nation

Release Date: October 7

Focusing on the true story of the slave rebellion led by Nat Turner, this passion project from Nate Parker (who stars and directs) received glowing reviews out of the Sundance Film Festival and picked up an Oscar friendly release date.

Collateral Beauty

Release Date: December 16

The Devil Wears Prada director David Frankel helms this comedic drama with an all-star cast that includes Will Smith, Kate Winslet, Keira Knightley, Helen Mirren, Edward Norton, and Jonah Hill.

Finding Dory

Release Date: June 17

Pixar has found itself in the Best Picture mix before with both 2009’s Up and 2010’s Toy Story 3. This sequel to 2003’s beloved Finding Nemo may follow suit and it should at the least be a major contender in Best Animated Feature.

Florence Foster Jenkins

Release Date: TBD

Put Meryl Streep in anything and she might be a possibility for an Actress nomination. So it is with Stephen Frears’ comedy/drama, which casts the 19 times nominated and 3 time winning Streep as the opera singing title character.

The Founder

Release Date: August 5

Michael Keaton has found himself featured in the last two Best Picture winners (Birdman, Spotlight). Could it be a three-peat with this biopic, which finds Keaton as McDonald’s founder Ray Kroc? John Lee Hancock (The Blind Side, Saving Mr. Banks) directs with Laura Dern costarring.

Free State of Jones

Release Date: May 13

2013 Best Actor winner Matthew McConaughey headlines this Civil War drama from Seabiscuit and Hunger Games director Gary Ross.

The Girl on the Train

Release Date: October 7

The Help‘s Tate Taylor directs this psychological thriller that could provide an Oscar friendly role for star Emily Blunt.

La La Land

Release Date:December 16

Damien Chazelle follows up his 2014 Oscar nominee Whiplash with this comedic musical drama starring Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone, and J.K. Simmons.

Nocturnal Animals

Release Date: TBD

Fashion designer Tom Ford follows up his acclaimed 2009 debut A Single Man with this drama featuring Jake Gyllenhaal, Amy Adams, Kim Basinger, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, and Michael Shannon.

Richard Pryor: Is It Something I Said?

Release Date: TBD

Lee Daniels directs this biopic of the legendary comedian with Mike Epps in the starring role and Oprah Winfrey and Eddie Murphy among the supporting cast.

Silence

Release Date: TBD

Andrew Garfield, Adam Driver, and Liam Neeson headline this historical drama from Martin Scorsese, who has seen five out his last six movies nominated for the big prize.

Sully

Release Date: September 9

Clint Eastwood follows up his 2014 nominee American Sniper with the true life tale of the title character pilot who pulled off the “Miracle on the Hudson” (which I like better as a title, by the way). Tom Hanks is Sully with Aaron Eckhart and Laura Linney backing him up.

A United Kingdom

Release Date: TBD

The period piece interracial romance features two stars who could be ripe for recognition – David Oyelowo and Rosamund Pike.

War Machine

Release Date: TBD

Release Date: This Afghanistan war comedy is likely to garner more attention than the last one, Tina Fey’s Whiskey Tango Foxtrot. Based on a bestselling novel, it stars Brad Pitt, Ben Kingsley, and Topher Grace.

The Zookeeper’s Wife

Release Date: TBD

This Holocaust themed drama (based on a bestseller) could be a factor in Picture and in Actress for Jessica Chastain’s lead role.

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