Tag: oscars

A Lovely Day for Mad Max

A summertime thrill ride that has served as a resurgence for a thirty year old action franchise got a big Oscar boost today when Mad Max: Fury Road won the National Board of Review (NBR) award for Best Picture. This was an upset. While George Miller’s return to kinetic and wild adventure set pieces earned universal critical acclaim, it’s not really been looked at as a given for a Picture nod at the Academy Awards. The NBR attention does nothing but help.

Over this century, the NBR’s Picture winner has been nominated for the big race at the Oscars 14 out of 16 times (the exceptions were 2000’s Quills and last year’s A Most Violent Year). On the other hand, only two of the past 16 NBR honorees have won the Academy’s honor (2007’s No Country for Old Men and 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire).

I would still say that Fury Road is no shoo in for a nomination, but its chances no doubt increased with the announcement this afternoon. I also believe a scenario (and maybe a stronger one) exists where Miller gets a directing nomination with the film being left off of the Best Picture group come announcement time.

The NBR also names an additional nine favorite movies of the year. They were: Bridge of Spies, Creed, The Hateful Eight, Inside Out, The Martian, Room, Sicario, Spotlight, and Straight Outta Compton. Of these films, Sicario and Compton are seen as least likely to receive Oscar attention. Both are still possible and Creed‘s stock keeps rising.

High profile Oscar contenders left off? The Revenant, Steve Jobs, Joy, Anomalisa, Brooklyn, and Carol. However, the NBR list and the Academy list never match and expect some of these titles to be included in the big race.

Besides Max, the other pic to get a huge NBR boost is The Martian, where Ridley Scott won Best Director and Matt Damon won Best Actor. Again, neither are shoo ins for Oscar nods but their inclusion is seeming more and more probable.

As for the other acting categories, Brie Larson’s work in Room marked her first win in what could be several and her Oscar nod seems assured. Sylvester Stallone was victorious in Supporting Actor for Creed and it would now be a surprise if Oscar doesn’t call his name among the five nominees. The same is likely for Jennifer Jason Leigh in The Hateful Eight, who won Supporting Actress.

This day really marked the official beginning of the awards season and there’ll be much more to chew on (other critics group, Golden Globes, SAG Awards) before the Academy reveals their choices. And this blog will be following and keeping you up to date all the way. Stay tuned!

 

Oscar Watch: Joy

When it comes to Oscar nominations over the first half of this decade, no director matches the incredible track record of David O. Russell. Let’s do some math, shall we? His last three pictures – 2010’s The Fighter, 2012’s Silver Linings Playbook, 2013’s American Hustle – have scored a combined 25 Academy Award nods. All three were nominated for Best Picture. Russell was in the Directing race for each film. The trio of pics nabbed a total of 11 acting nominations resulting in three victories: Christian Bale (Supporting Actor for The Fighter), Melissa Leo (Supporting Actress for The Fighter), and Jennifer Lawrence (Actress for Silver Linings Playbook).

Therefore, it’s obvious that December’s Joy has been high on the list for potential Oscar attention. Over the weekend, it screened for critics and journalists for the first time. While reviews are officially embargoed until mid December, the word is that Russell likely has his fourth contender in a row. Early buzz makes one thing clear: Lawrence is in line to receive her fourth nomination as the title character in Best Actress. At this point, it’d be a shock if she’s not included. This would mark her third recognition in a row from the Academy working with Russell (winning for Playbook, nominated for Hustle). As for other acting races, it’s murkier. Bradley Cooper would also be going for his third nomination in a row with Russell, but his part is said to be small and he probably won’t be included. Robert De Niro, on the other hand, has potential with his supporting turn. His last nomination was in the same category for Playbook. Diane Ladd is rumored to be the Supporting Actress most in contention over costars Virginia Madsen and Isabella Rossellini.

It would also seem that Joy remains a strong contender for Best Picture recognition and that could extend to Russell’s fourth time in the Director category. As stated, Russell’s films have been an Oscar juggernaut and it’s unlikely to let up here (especially with J Law). A caveat: some of the initial reaction for this isn’t quite as over the moon as the director’s last efforts, so I would write Joy‘s Best Picture nomination and Russell’s down in pencil, not pen until officials reviews are released. Feel free to use a Bic with Lawrence.

Oscar Watch: Anomalisa

Since summer, it’s been clear that one 2015 animated film is a true contender in the Best Picture race: Pixar’s Inside Out. Yet it’s becoming increasingly likely that there may be two and the other is in the form of Charlie Kaufman’s Anomalisa.

Known for his ingenious screenplays that include Being John Malkovich, Adaptation and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Kaufman’s latest is an experimental stop motion comedy drama featuring the voices of David Thewlis, Jennifer Jason Leigh and Tom Noonan. It is not an animated pic for kids with its R rating. Anomalisa premiered at Telluride before winning the Grand Jury prize at the Venice Film Festival.

Critics have gone gaga over it as its Rotten Tomatoes score is a cool 100%. Its inclusion in the Animated Feature race is a foregone conclusion. The question is whether or not it could gather enough mojo to be included in the big race, Picture. Right now I feel it’s on the outside looking in, but if any December contenders like Joy or The Hateful Eight falter, I could be singing a different tune. Anomalisa is one to keep an eye on.

Todd’s Oscar Predictions: November Edition

We have arrived at my third round of Oscar predictions for the month of November. Some has changed, some has stayed the same. We’ll go through each of the six major categories one by one…

Let’s go!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This is the one category where I’ve made no changes, though any of the others listed as possibilities could find their way in. Most have Jane Fonda in the mix already, but I’m not quite there yet.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS  in SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Joan Allen, Room

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Rooney Mara, Carol

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy

Jane Fonda, Youth

Diane Ladd, Joy

Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

Isabella Rossellini, Joy

Julie Walters, Brooklyn

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

And here we have the most changes of any category! Coming out of nowhere last week was Sylvester Stallone’s acclaimed performance in Creed and as of now, here appears to be a strong contender for a nod and maybe even the win. I’m also including Mark Ruffalo and re-including Idris Elba. Falling out are Benicio del Toro, Robert De Niro, and Tom Hardy, though they all remain possibles. This category has a whole lot of potential nominees, but only five slots available.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS for SUPPORTING ACTOR

Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Michael Keaton, Spotlight

Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Other Possibilities:

Christian Bale, The Big Short

Bradley Cooper, Joy

Paul Dano, Love and Mercy

Benicio del Toro, Sicario

Robert De Niro, Joy

Joel Edgerton, Black Mass

Harrison Ford, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight

Harvey Keitel, Youth

Jason Mitchell, Straight Outta Compton

Kurt Russell, The Hateful Eight

Jacob Tremblay, Room

BEST ACTRESS

Four slots seem to be rather safe and have been for awhile: Cate Blanchett, Brie Larson, Jennifer Lawrence, and Saoirse Ronan. The fifth slot could legitimately be any of the others listed, but for now I’ve removed Carey Mulligan and replaced her with Blythe Danner.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS for ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams

Brie Larson, Room

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Other Possibilities:

Emily Blunt, Sicario

Carey Mulligan, Suffragette

Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van

Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road

Lily Tomlin, Grandma

BEST ACTOR

Only one change here as I currently feel the massive box office success of The Martian will get Matt Damon in. That takes Michael Caine out. Watch out for Will Smith, though, even though I don’t yet have him in the final  cut.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS for ACTOR

Matt Damon, The Martian

Johnny Depp, Black Mass

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Other Possibilities:

Michael Caine, Youth

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

Michael B. Jordan, Creed

Will Smith, Concussion

BEST DIRECTOR

Two changes here as I believe Danny Boyle may miss out and George Miller won’t be the wild card pick I predicted in October. This puts David O. Russell and Ridley Scott in.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS for DIRECTOR

Lenny Abrahamson, Room

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

David O. Russell, Joy

Ridley Scott, The Martian

Other Possibilities:

Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

Ryan Coogler, Creed

John Crowley, Brooklyn

Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation

Todd Haynes, Carol

Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

BEST PICTURE

I am still predicting nine nominees out of the possible five-ten and I’ve made two changes. I’m putting Carol back in the mix and The Martian in for the first time. That leaves out Bridge of Spies and The Danish Girl, though both remain major contenders. It’s worth noting that Steve Jobs, due to its disastrous box office performance, is not even close to a shoo in  and it could fall off.

TODD’s PREDICTIONS for PICTURE

Brooklyn

Carol

The Hateful Eight

Joy

The Martian

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

Beasts of No Nation

The Big Short

Bridge of Spies

Creed

The Danish Girl

Inside Out

In the Heart of the Sea

Mad Max: Fury Road

Sicario

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Straight Outta Comption

And that does it for my November Oscar predictions, folks! I’ll have the December predictions up shortly before Christmas…

Oscar Watch: The Revenant

One of the huge shoes left to drop in the 2015 Oscar race did so as Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s The Revenant screened for Academy voters last night. While official reviews are embargoed until next Friday, there was plenty of word that leaked out and it’s given us a general direction on its Oscar prospects.

The verdict? It sounds as if The Revenant is well on its way to a Best Picture and Director nomination. Some watchers loved it while others were more cautious, but its inclusion as a nominee in these big races seems pretty much assured right now.

Furthermore, last evening’s word of mouth indicates an unquestionable nomination for star Leonardo DiCaprio, who’s been nominated four times and never won. The fifth time, in a Best Actor race that is less competitive than in recent year, could finally be the charm. It appears less certain whether or not Tom Hardy will be a player in Supporting Actor, though that should become more clear when reviews are out late next week.

Cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki is also being heaped with praise and he could be the first individual to win the race three times in a row (after Gravity and Birdman).

Of course, director Inarritu is the man behind Birdman and he saw that effort win himself an Oscar, as well as the film itself last year. History has a shot of repeating itself this time. And for all the deserved chatter over the years about the craziness of Leo being Oscar-less, it could be well on its way to changing quite soon.

Oscar Watch: Creed

For younger moviegoers, the thought of Rocky Balboa and Oscar buzz being in the same sentence may seem somewhat comical. Not so. The original Rocky was released nearly forty years ago in 1976 and it punched out some serious competition to win Best Picture. And when I say serious competition, I’m talking about Taxi Driver, Network, and All the President’s Men. Sylvester Stallone earned himself a Best Actor nod, though lost to Network‘s Peter Finch.

As we all know, a number of sequels followed that varied in quality. Stallone did not direct the original as John G. Avildsen was behind the camera (he would win the Director Academy Award for his efforts). Avildsen returned to direct 1990’s Rocky V, which is justifiably and ironically considered the worst of the follow-ups. Yet Stallone would direct the four other sequels (parts II, III, IV, and 2006’s Rocky Balboa).

Stallone has relinquished his directorial duties for next week’s Creed, turning the camera over to Ryan Coogler, who made 2013’s critically lauded Fruitvale Station. The pic focuses on the boxing career of the late Apollo Creed’s son and he’s played by Michael B. Jordan, who starred in Station. Stallone is back for the seventh time as Philadelphia’s favorite fighter and his role here finds him more in the Mickey role as Creed’s trainer.

It may have taken nearly four (or in Rocky speak – IV) decades, but it seems like legitimate Oscar buzz for the franchise is back. The initial reviews were released today and it currently stands at 80% on Rotten Tomatoes, with Entertainment Weekly calling it easily the best of the series since the original.

Creed has been praised for Jordan’s lead performance, though it seems unlikely he would find himself in the mix for Best Actor. Additionally, even with the strong notices, I don’t foresee it being recognized for Picture or Director. So where could voters decide to recognize it?

Back to Stallone. The Academy loves a good story and how about one in which an iconic actor is nominated in Supporting Actor for his most famed role 40 years after he was nominated in lead Actor for that same part? Sounds like a heckuva story to me!

When my third round of Oscar predictions comes later this month, don’t be surprised to find Sly in the mix for Supporting Actor whereas I hadn’t even listed him as a possibility before. Today’s tale of the tape on Creed makes it clear: Stallone could be a contender.

Oscar Watch: The Big Short

The last piece of the AFI Film Festival puzzle as it relates to Oscar potential was unveiled Thursday night as Adam McKay’s The Big Short screened. You don’t normally (as in ever before now) see director McKay’s name linked to Academy Awards buzz. We know him best for making Will Ferrell comedies like Anchorman, Talladega Nights, and The Other Guys. 

Yet this comedy with some drama mixed in focuses on the financial and housing crises of recent years and features a stellar cast that includes Steve Carell, Christian Bale, Ryan Gosling, Brad Pitt, Melissa Leo, and Marisa Tomei. And when Paramount pushed it up from a release date in 2016 to Christmas time this year, it was seen by some as a move to put it in the Oscar race.

The verdict? Pretty strong, but reviews haven’t been met with universal acclaim. Some critics have been quite positive though and when it comes to the performances, attention has turned to Carell for Actor and Bale in Supporting Actor (a category he won in 2010 for The Fighter). Even though the Best Actor race is less competitive in 2015 than it’s been in recent year, I still feel Carell is a bit of a long shot for consideration unless the movie really takes off. Same goes for Bale. I would also say its inclusion in Best Picture seems iffy, at best.

As you know, however, these things can change over the next couple of months and The Big Short at least established itself as a potential player in the weeks ahead.

Oscar Watch: Concussion

Last night at the AFI Film Festival, critics got their first look at Concussion – the eagerly awaited pic centering on the NFL’s policies regarding brain injuries. The film wasn’t ever really looked at as a major threat in Best Picture or Director (Peter Landesman) and that hasn’t changed. It’s so far received mixed notices and sits at 57% on Rotten Tomatoes. Supporting players like Alec Baldwin, Gugu Mbatha-Raw and Albert Brooks are also unlikely to be factors.

Where Concussion does stand a very real shot at a nod is for its lead actor, Will Smith. Critics have specifically singled him out and it could well mean a third nomination for Big Willie after 2001’s Ali and 2007’s The Pursuit of Happyness. It also helps that this year’s Actor race doesn’t seem quite as competitive compared to the last couple of years. Others in the mix include last year’s winner Eddie Redmayne for The Danish Girl, Michael Fassbender for box office flop Steve Jobs, Matt Damon in box office bonanza The Martian, Michael Caine for Youth, Johnny Depp in Black Mass, and Leonardo DiCaprio in the as yet unseen The Revenant.

Considering that crowd, it’s pretty easy to see Smith finding himself in the fold, especially if Concussion does well at the box office. He may find himself among my predicted nominees for the first time when my third round of predictions hits next week. Concussion arrives in theaters on Christmas.

Oscar Watch: By the Sea

Just last year, Angelina Jolie’s second directorial feature Unbroken was looked at as a potential major contender in the Picture and Director categories. However, when it screened for critics, its prospects dimmed and it ended up getting nominated in just three races with none of them being the high profile ones.

A year later, her third turn behind the camera is By the Sea and it hasn’t been talked about in the same terms that her last film was in terms of Oscar nods. Now we know why. The marital drama costars Jolie’s real life hubby Brad Pitt and Melanie Laurent and it debuted yesterday at the AFI Film Festival. Critical reaction has not been too kind, with most writers calling it a rather dull vanity project. It stands at just 38% on Rotten Tomatoes currently.

With the talent involved, By the Sea still stood at the outer edges to keep an eye on for awards attention. Now that it has been seen, that wave of possibility has dissipated.

Oscar History: 2010

In my ongoing series of Oscar History posts, we arrive at what happened during the year 2010. This was quite a strong year for movies and, unlike other years, I can’t really quibble with the ten pictures that were nominated.

I can, however, differ with what won: Tom Hooper’s The King’s Speech. While this was a very solid and entertaining picture, I would have definitely put at least three of the other nominees above it: Black Swan, Inception, and my favorite of the year, The Social Network. Other nominees were 127 Hours, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, Toy Story 3, True Grit, and Winter’s Bone. 

Picture/Director matched up as Tom Hooper’s work in King’s Speech would win over Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan), Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit), David Fincher (The Social Network), and David O. Russell (The Fighter). I may have found a spot for Christopher Nolan’s visually striking work in Inception. 

The love for The King’s Speech continued in Best Actor as Colin Firth was honored for his portrayal as King George VI. He triumphed over Javier Bardem (Biutiful), Jeff Bridges (True Grit), Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network), and James Franco (127 Hours). It’s worth noting that Franco co-hosted the Oscars that year with Anne Hathaway. It wasn’t too memorable.

While his supporting players were showered with love, Mark Wahlberg was snubbed for his anchoring performance in The Fighter. Others worthy of mention: Leonardo DiCaprio in either Inception or Shutter Island and Robert Duvall for Get Low.

Natalie Portman was a bit of a no-brainer pick for her tour de force work in Black Swan in the Actress race, beating out Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone), and Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine).

I was a little surprised to see Bening’s Kids lead costar Julianne Moore left out. Franco’s co-host Anne Hathaway would’ve been a solid choice for her fine work in Love and Other Drugs. The Oscar voters rarely honor comedy, but they could have here with Emma Stone in her hit Easy A, as well.

Supporting Actor honored Christian Bale as Mark Wahlberg’s drug addicted brother in The Fighter. The other nominees were John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone), Jeremy Renner (The Town), Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right), and Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech).

I might have found room for either Andrew Garfield or Justin Timberlake in The Social Network. And keeping the snubbed comedy theme going, here’s an outside the box mention: Rob Corddry for his hilarious work in Hot Tub Time Machine.

The Fighter also won in Supporting Actress with Melissa Leo, who edged out her co-star Amy Adams. The other nominees: Helena Bonham Carter in The King’s Speech, Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit, and Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom. The voters could have certainly nominated either Mila Kunis or Barbara Hershey for their roles in Black Swan.

And that’s your Oscar History of 2010, my friends. We’ll get to 2011 soon…