J.K. Rowling’s world of wizardry is back in theaters next weekend with the release of FantasticBeasts: TheCrimesofGrindelwald. It’s the second in a series of five planned features as it looks to conjure up huge box office dollars like predecessor FantasticBeastsandWheretoFindThem did.
Early reviews are out and the reaction is mixed at 56% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Not even the most acclaimed HarryPotter pics were ever considered awards contenders for major categories. However, down the line technical races are another story.
Two years ago, the first Beasts managed two Oscar nominations: Production Design and Costume Design. It won the latter. There’s no reason to think it couldn’t be a factor in both of those categories again. That said, voters could feel they’ve already honored the franchise with part 1. Visual Effects and Makeup and Hairstyling are in the realm of possibility, if unlikely.
Bottom line: the costumes especially could garner attention, but don’t expect Grindelwald to exceed (and maybe not match) the first movie.
My weekly Oscar predictions have arrived once again! Some important developments from last week to this one:
Green Book rises and First Man falls. While I still have the latter receiving a Picture nomination, I’ve put in Peter Farrelly (Green Book) over Man maker Damien Chazelle in Director. In Best Actor, Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) gets the nod over Ryan Gosling’s work. In Adapted Screenplay, it’s Widows in and First Man out. With Green Book, it now rises to the #1 spot in Original Screenplay over Roma.
The AFI Fest premieres tonight with the world debut of On the Basis of Sex. We’ll have a lot more info on its Oscar viability in just hours. The same festival will bring us the first screening and buzz for Mary Queen of Scots next week.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. Green Book (PR: 5)
4. The Favourite (PR: 3)
5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
6. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
7. First Man (PR: 6)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Vice (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Widows (PR: 12)
11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
12. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 14)
13. The Mule (PR: 13)
14. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 11)
15. Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mary Queen of Scots
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
4. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
7. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 5)
8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 9)
9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)
10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
3. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)
5. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 5)
7. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 6)
8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)
9. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)
2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 7)
8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)
9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)
10. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 4)
3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)
4. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)
5. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 8)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)
8. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 6)
9. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Robert Forster, What They Had
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 5)
4. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 4)
5. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)
7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 7)
8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)
9. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 6)
10. Linda Cardellini, Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Widows (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. First Man (PR: 5)
7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
8. Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Hate U Give (PR: 8)
10. Black Panther (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Leave No Trace
Best Original Screenplay
1. Green Book (PR: 3)
2. Roma (PR: 1)
3. The Favourite (PR: 2)
4. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)
5. Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 6)
7. First Reformed (PR: 7)
8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)
9. A Quiet Place (PR: 8)
10. The Mule (PR: 10)
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. Cold War (PR: 2)
3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)
4. Girl (PR: 4)
5. Capernaum (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Burning (PR: 6)
7. Never Look Away (PR: 9)
8. Border (PR: 10)
9. Birds of Passage (PR: 7)
10. Dogman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Guility
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)
2. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)
3. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)
4. Mirai (PR: 4)
5. Early Man (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 5)
7. Smallfoot (PR: 10)
8. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Grinch (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Night is Short, Walk on Girl
Teen Titans Go! To the Movies
Best Documentary Feature
1. Free Solo (PR: 1)
2. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)
3. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 3)
4. RBG (PR: 4)
5. Minding the Gap (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 8)
7. Dark Money (PR: 7)
8. Science Fair (PR: 5)
9. Quincy (PR: 10)
10. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Price of Everything
Best Film Editing
1. Roma (PR: 2)
2. First Man (PR: 3)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
5. The Favourite (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Widows (PR: 6)
7. Vice (PR: 5)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 9)
10. Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
July 22
Best Cinematography
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
4. The Favourite (PR: 6)
5. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Widows (PR: 9)
7. Black Panther (PR: 7)
8. Cold War (PR: 5)
9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Mary Queen of Scots
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
4. First Man (PR: 3)
5. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)
7. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)
8. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Roma (PR: 7)
10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Colette
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
5. Colette (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)
7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 6)
9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 8)
10. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
A Wrinkle in Time
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. The Favourite (PR: 3)
2. Black Panther (PR: 1)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
4. Vice (PR: 5)
5. Stan & Ollie (PR: 4)
6. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
7. Colette (PR: 9)
8. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 10)
9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
10. Suspiria (PR: 8)
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 4)
4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)
5. Roma (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 6)
7. Incredibles 2 (PR: 5)
8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
9. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 7)
10. Ready Player One (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Annihilation
Best Sound Mixing
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
2. First Man (PR: 1)
3. Black Panther (PR: 4)
4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)
5. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Roma (PR: 7)
7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)
9. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Ready Player One
Best Visual Effects
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 2)
3. Ready Player One (PR: 4)
4. Black Panther (PR: 3)
5. Annihilation (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
7. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 8)
8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)
9. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ant-Man and the Wasp
Best Original Score
1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
2. First Man (PR: 1)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)
4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
5. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Roma (PR: 4)
8. Suspiria (PR: 9)
9. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 10)
10. Green Book (PR: 5)
Dropped Out:
Incredibles 2
Colette
Best Original Song
1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. “The Places Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “Always Remember Us This Way” from A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
8. “Hearts Beat Loud” from Hearts Beat Loud (PR: 10)
9. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 9)
10. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 6)
And that breaks down the following number of nominations for each film:
12 Nominations
A Star Is Born
11 Nominations
The Favourite
9 Nominations
First Man
8 Nominations
Black Panther, Roma
6 Nominations
If Beale Street Could Talk
5 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, Green Book
4 Nominations
Mary Queen of Scots, Vice
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Poppins Returns
2 Nominations
A Quiet Place, Bohemian Rhapsody, Widows
1 Nomination
At Eternity’s Gate, The Wife, Beautiful Boy, Eighth Grade, Colette, Avengers: Infinity War, Ready Player One, Annihilation, The Hate U Give, Cold War, Shoplifters, Girl, Capernaum, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Early Man, Free Solo, Three Identical Strangers, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, RBG, Minding the Gap
My look back at the major Oscar categories from 1990 to the present arrives at Best Actor today! If you missed my posts covering Actress and the Supporting races, you can find them here:
As with those previous entries, I am picking the three least surprising winners of the last 28 years, along with the three biggest upsets. Additionally, you’ll see my personal picks for strongest and weakest fields overall.
As a primer, here are the winners from 1990 to now:
1990 – Jeremy Irons, ReversalofFortune
1991 – Anthony Hopkins, TheSilenceoftheLambs
1992 – Al Pacino, ScentofaWoman
1993 – Tom Hanks, Philadelphia
1994 – Tom Hanks, ForrestGump
1995 – Nicolas Cage, LeavingLasVegas
1996 – Geoffrey Rush, Shine
1997 – Jack Nicholson, AsGoodAsItGets
1998 – Roberto Benigni, LifeisBeautiful
1999 – Kevin Spacey, AmericanBeauty
2000 – Russell Crowe, Gladiator
2001 – Denzel Washington, TrainingDay
2002 – Adrien Brody, ThePianist
2003 – Sean Penn, MysticRiver
2004 – Jamie Foxx, Ray
2005 – Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
2006 – Forest Whitaker, TheLastKingofScotland
2007 – Daniel Day-Lewis, ThereWillBeBlood
2008 – Sean Penn, Milk
2009 – Jeff Bridges, CrazyHeart
2010 – Colin Firth, TheKing’sSpeech
2011 – Jean Dujardin, TheArtist
2012 – Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
2013 – Matthew McConaughey, DallasBuyersClub
2014 – Eddie Redmayne, TheTheoryofEverything
2015 – Leonardo DiCaprio, TheRevenant
2016 – Casey Affleck, ManchesterbytheSea
2017 – Gary Oldman, DarkestHour
Let’s begin with the three that I’m deeming as the non-surprise winners. Whittling this down to that number was a challenge. The double wins by Hanks and Penn and even last year’s winner Oldman could’ve easily been named here, too. Here goes…
3. Al Pacino, ScentofaWoman
The legendary thespian was 0 for 6 when it came to nominations and wins entering 1992. He picked up his 7th and 8th nods that year with his supporting role in GlengarryGlenRoss and lead role as a blind former colonel in this Martin Brest directed drama. By Oscar night, it was clear he was finally going to make that trip to the podium.
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, TheRevenant
Like Pacino, DiCaprio had been an Academy bridesmaid before… four times. His fifth nod for TheRevenant guaranteed he’d finally be a winner against weak competition (more on that below).
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
I could have named the Method actor’s victory in 2007 for ThereWillBeBlood as well, but his win five years later as the nation’s 16th President edges it out. From the moment the Steven Spielberg project was announced, Day-Lewis was the odds on favorite and it never changed.
Now – my selections for the upsets:
3. Anthony Hopkins, TheSilenceoftheLambs
While it might seem an obvious win nearly 30 years later, Nick Nolte’s work in ThePrinceofTides had nabbed him the Golden Globe. Additionally, there was some controversy about Sir Anthony’s inclusion in the lead race due to his approximate 16 minutes of screen time. This is truly evidence of a performance so towering that it couldn’t be ignored.
2. Roberto Benigni, LifeisBeautiful
The Italian director/writer/actor was an underdog against competition that included Nick Nolte (once again) for Affliction and Ian McKellen in GodsandMonsters. Mr. Benigni seemed a bit shocked himself when his name was called, as he famously bounded exuberantly to the stage.
1. Adrien Brody, ThePianist
The smart money in 2002 was with Jack Nicholson in AboutSchmidt or Daniel Day-Lewis in GangsofNewYork. Brody’s win was pretty shocking, as was the giant smooch he planted on presenter Halle Berry.
When it comes to overall fields, I’m going recent history with both. For strongest, I’ll give it to 2012. That’s the year Day-Lewis won for Lincoln. All other nominees were rock solid as well with Bradley Cooper (SilverLiningsPlaybook), Hugh Jackman (LesMiserables), Joaquin Phoenix (TheMaster), and Denzel Washington (Flight).
For weakest, I’m picking 2015. This is the aforementioned year of DiCaprio’s overdue win. The rest of the field, however, was a bit lacking. It consisted of Bryan Cranston (Trumbo), Matt Damon (TheMartian), Michael Fassbender (SteveJobs), and Eddie Redmayne (TheDanishGirl).
And there’s your Actor look back, folks! Keep an eye out for Best Picture soon as the final post in this series…
My first Oscar predictions in the month of November come with reductions and expansions. I am slimming the list of 25 Best Picture possibilities to 15 and the other major categories from 15 to 10. As you can see, I am also including all of the other feature-length races for the first time from Documentary to Animated Feature to Foreign Language Feature and the techs.
So what are the developments worth discussing? Well…
In these initial projections for all races, A Star Is Born and First Man tie for most nominations with 12 apiece. Truth be told, I’m skeptical that First Man will get there. Its poor box office performance could hinder its possibilities in some races. While I’m relatively confident it will score multiples nods in the technical categories, both director Damien Chazelle and star Ryan Gosling are questionable, even though I currently have them both getting honored.
In Best Picture, BlacKkKlansman rises from 6th to 4th in the list of predicted nominees. It’s a good week in general for the Spike Lee pic as I’m including Adam Driver for the first time in the list of predicted Supporting Actor nominees, replacing Sam Rockwell in Vice.
We got a surprise announcement this week as Kenneth Branagh’s All Is True will open in late December for a qualifying run. The director stars as William Shakespeare in the late stages of his life with a supporting cast including Judi Dench and Ian McKellen. I will likely wait for some buzz before possibly listing it as a predicted nominee. In addition to Picture, Director, acting slots, and screenplay – it has the potential in down the line races such as Costume Design and Production Design. It will certainly be one to keep an eye on.
For Foreign Language Feature, Roma is tops in my first predictions while it maintains its #2 spot in Best Picture. Pixar finds itself in familiar territory with Incredibles 2 leading Animated Feature. In what should be a competitive Documentary Feature race, Free Solo starts out at #1 with Three Identical Strangers close behind.
And with that, here’s what November brings as far as Oscar predictions!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
5. Green Book (PR: 4)
6. First Man (PR: 5)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Vice (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)
11. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 13)
12. Widows (PR: 10)
13. The Mule (PR: 12)
14. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 15)
15. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
A Quiet Place
Eighth Grade
Boy Erased
Leave No Trace
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Mary Poppins Returns
The Hate U Give
Cold War
Ben Is Back
Hereditary
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 3)
5. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)
8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 9)
9. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)
10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Steve McQueen, Widows
Clint Eastwood, The Mule
Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots
John Krasinski, A Quiet Place
Jon M. Chu, Crazy Rich Asians
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 5)
5. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)
7. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 7)
9. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 9)
10. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Lucas Hedges, Ben Is Back
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Ben Foster, Leave No Trace
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)
2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 8)
8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 10)
9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 7)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Kindergarten Teacher
Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)
4. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
5. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 5)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)
8. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 6)
9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 14)
10. Robert Forster, What They Had (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Steve Carell, Vice
Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex
Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite
Russell Crowe, Boy Erased
Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 2)
3. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)
4. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 3)
5. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 7)
7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 6)
8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)
9. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
Rachel McAdams, Disobedience
Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun
Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex
Dianne Wiest, The Mule
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. First Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Widows (PR: 7)
7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 6)
8. The Hate U Give (PR: 11)
9. Leave No Trace (PR: 8)
10. Black Panther (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Mary Queen of Scots
Boy Erased
Disobedience
The Sisters Brothers
The Wife
Best Original Screenplay
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. The Favourite (PR: 2)
3. Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)
5. Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)
7. First Reformed (PR: 6)
8. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 7)
10. The Mule (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Ben Is Back
Private Life
Hereditary
Stan and Ollie
Sorry to Bother You
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma
2. Cold War
3. Shoplifters
4. Girl
5. Capernaum
Other Possibilities:
6. Burning
7. Birds of Passage
8. The Guilty
9. Never Look Away
10. Border
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2
2. Isle of Dogs
3. Ralph Breaks the Internet
4. Mirai
5. Ruben Brandt, Collector
Other Possibilities:
6. Lu Over the Wall
7. Early Man
8. Night is Short, Walk on Girl
9. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies
10. Smallfoot
Best Documentary Feature
1. Free Solo
2. Three Identical Strangers
3. Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
4. RBG
5. Science Fair
Other Possibilities:
6. Minding the Gap
7. Dark Money
8. Crime + Punishment
9. The Price of Everything
10. Quincy
Best Film Editing
1. A Star Is Born
2. Roma
3. First Man
4. The Favourite
5. Vice
Other Possibilities:
6. Widows
7. If Beale Street Could Talk
8. Black Panther
9. BlacKkKlansman
10. July 22
Best Cinematography
1. Roma
2. First Man
3. A Star Is Born
4. If Beale Street Could Talk
5. Cold War
Other Possibilities:
6. The Favourite
7. Black Panther
8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
9. Widows
10. Mary Queen of Scots
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite
2. Black Panther
3. First Man
4. Mary Poppins Returns
5. Mary Queen of Scots
Other Possibilities:
6. A Star Is Born
7. Roma
8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
9. Colette
10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite
2. Black Panther
3. Mary Queen of Scots
4. Colette
5. Mary Poppins Returns
Other Possibilities:
6. Crazy Rich Asians
7. A Star Is Born
8. If Beale Street Could Talk
9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
10. A Wrinkle in Time
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Black Panther
2. Mary Queen of Scots
3. The Favourite
Other Possibilities:
4. Stan and Ollie
5. Vice
6. Mary Poppins Returns
7. A Star Is Born
8. Suspiria
9. Colette
10. A Wrinkle in Time
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man
2. Black Panther
3. A Quiet Place
4. A Star Is Born
5. Incredibles 2
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout
7. Avengers: Infinity War
8. Roma
9. Mary Poppins Returns
10. Annihilation
Best Sound Mixing
1. First Man
2. A Star Is Born
3. A Quiet Place
4. Black Panther
5. Mary Poppins Returns
Other Possibilities:
6. Bohemian Rhapsody
7. Roma
8. Incredibles 2
9. Avengers: Infinity War
10. Ready Player One
Best Visual Effects
1. First Man
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Black Panther
4. Ready Player One
5. Annihilation
Other Possibilities
6. Mary Poppins Returns
7. A Quiet Place
8. A Wrinkle in Time
9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
10. Ant-Man and the Wasp
Best Original Score
1. First Man
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. BlacKkKlansman
4. Roma
5. Green Book
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Queen of Scots
7. Incredibles 2
8. Colette
9. Suspiria
10. The Sisters Brothers
Best Original Song
1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born
2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther
3. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born
4. “The Place Where Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns
5. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give
Other Possibilities:
6. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex
7. “Always Remember Us This Way” from A Star Is Born
8. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns
9. “I’ll Fight” from RBG
10. “Hearts Beat Loud” from Hearts Beat Loud
And that breaks down to the following number of nominations for each feature:
12 Nominations
A Star Is Born, First Man
10 Nominations
The Favourite
8 Nominations
Black Panther, Roma
5 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, Vice
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Queen of Scots, Mary Poppins Returns
2 Nominations
A Quiet Place, Cold War, Incredibles 2
1 Nomination
Annihilation, At Eternity’s Gate, Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Colette, Eighth Grade, Ready Player One, The Hate U Give, The Wife, Capernaum, Free Solo, Girl, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, RBG, Ruben Brandt, Collector, Science Fair. Shoplifters, Three Identical Strangers, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
Disney’s expensive rendering of TheNutcrackerandtheFourRealms dances into theaters on Friday and it does so with mostly negative reviews. It stands at just 26% on Rotten Tomatoes and the studio may have a rare commercial disappointment on their hands (the budget is a reported $130 million).
So why in the world am I doing an Oscar Watch post on it? Well, the one positive aspect most critics point out is its set design and outfits adorning the actors. That could put Nutcracker in a similar situation with the Mouse Factory’s live-action version of AliceinWonderland in 2010.
That also received middling reviews (though it did very well financially). It was rewarded with nominations in Art Direction (now called Production Design) and Costume Design. Realms could certainly play in both of those categories and perhaps Makeup and Hairstyling. Wonderland also won Best Visual Effects, but that race could be a reach with this.
Bottom line: even though word-of-mouth is not strong, Nutcracker has a shot at some down-the-line categories.
Back at it again with my look back at major Oscar races from 1990 to the present! We’ve arrived at Best Actress. If you missed my previous posts covering the Supporting performers, you can find them here:
As I did with those posts, I’m selecting my top 3 least surprising winners and top 3 upsets. I’m also giving you my personal pick for strongest and weakest fields from the past 28 years.
For starters, here’s the list of winners from 1990 to now:
1990 – Kathy Bates, Misery
1991 – Jodie Foster, The Silence of the Lambs
1992 – Emma Thompson, Howards End
1993 – Holly Hunter, The Piano
1994 – Jessica Lange, Blue Sky
1995 – Susan Sarandon, Dead Man Walking
1996 – Frances McDormand, Fargo
1997 – Helen Hunt, As Good As It Gets
1998 – Gwyneth Paltrow, Shakespeare in Love
1999 – Hilary Swank, Boys Don’t Cry
2000 – Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich
2001 – Halle Berry, Monster’s Ball
2002 – Nicole Kidman, The Hours
2003 – Charlize Theron, Monster
2004 – Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
2005 – Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
2006 – Helen Mirren, The Queen
2007 – Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
2008 – Kate Winslet, The Reader
2009 – Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
2010 – Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2011 – Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
2012 – Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
2013 – Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
2014 – Julianne Moore, Still Alice
2015 – Brie Larson, Room
2016 – Emma Stone, La La Land
2017 – Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
When it comes to Best Actress, I must say it’s probably the race with the least amount of genuine upsets. Nearly every year, there’s a pretty strong front-runner and they win – even more so than in Actor and the Supporting players. Of many non-surprises, here’s my top ones:
3. Holly Hunter, The Piano
Hunter’s work as a mute piano player in Jane Campion’s period piece was the clear favorite over significant competition that included Angela Bassett in What’s Love Got to Do With It? and the previous year’s winner Emma Thompson in The Remains of the Day.
2. Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich
One of Hollywood’s biggest stars had already received nods for Steel Magnolias and Pretty Woman and there was little question that Brockovich would earn Roberts her first and only (so far) trip to the Oscar stage.
1. Charlize Theron, Monster
Theron’s metamorphosis into serial killer Aileen Wuornos swept all precursors. The rest of the field was also fairly weak that year, making her the obvious victor.
And now the “upsets”…
3. Kate Winslet, The Reader
While not a surprise when she won Oscar night, the multi-nominated Winslet was expected for much of the year to get a nod for Revolutionary Road instead. Yet it was this Stephen Daldry drama that was selected instead.
2. Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
This was a two-way contest between Cotillard and veteran Julie Christie for Away from Her, with many believing the latter had the edge. It didn’t turn out that way.
1. Hilary Swank, Boys Don’t Cry and Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
This #1 comes with a caveat. It wasn’t much of an upset by the time Swank won her double Oscars. What’s interesting here is that she single-handedly denied two prime opportunities for the winless Annette Bening to get a statue for American Beauty and Being Julia.
We move to the fields. For weakest field, I’m selecting 1994 when Jessica Lange won for the little-seen Blue Sky. Other nominees were Jodie Foster in Nell, Miranda Richardson in Tom&Viv, Winona Ryder for Little Women, and Susan Sarandon in The Client.
Strongest group in my opinion goes to 2010 with Natalie Portman’s victorious role in Black Swan. The rest of that impressive field is Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Jennifer Lawrence’s first nomination in Winter’s Bone, and Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine).
Continuing on with my look back at the major categories from 1990 to the present at the Oscars, we arrive at Best Supporting Actor! If you missed my post regarding Supporting Actress, you can find it right here:
As I did with that blog entry, I’m picking the top 3 least surprising winners (performers who essentially sailed right through awards season) and the 3 biggest upsets in each race. I am also selecting the strongest and weakest fields overall.
As a primer, here are the 28 actors whose support earned them a golden statue:
1990 – Joe Pesci, GoodFellas
1991 – Jack Palance, City Slickers
1992 – Gene Hackman, Unforgiven
1993 – Tommy Lee Jones, The Fugitive
1994 – Martin Landau, Ed Wood
1995 – Kevin Spacey, The Usual Suspects
1996 – Cuba Gooding Jr., Jerry Maguire
1997 – Robin Williams, Good Will Hunting
1998 – James Coburn, Affliction
1999 – Michael Caine, The Cider House Rules
2000 – Benicio del Toro, Traffic
2001 – Jim Broadbent, Iris
2002 – Chris Cooper, Adaptation
2003 – Tim Robbins, Mystic River
2004 – Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
2005 – George Clooney, Syriana
2006 – Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
2007 – Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
2008 – Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
2009 – Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
2010 – Christian Bale, The Fighter
2011 – Christopher Plummer, Beginners
2012 – Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
2013 – Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
2014 – J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
2015 – Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
2016 – Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
2017 – Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
There are plenty to choose from as far least surprising winners, but here’s my top ones:
3. Gene Hackman, Unforgiven
Clint Eastwood’s Western picked up a slew of awards on Oscar night and Hackman’s inclusion in that race was never really in doubt. It was his second statue after winning Best Actor 21 years previously for The French Connection.
2. Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
It was director Christopher Nolan giving numerous awards speeches on behalf of the late Ledger, as his work playing the iconic villain swept all precursors as well. This remains not only the only win in the omnipresent superhero genre in the 21st century, but the only nomination.
1. Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Like Ledger, Bardem created a bad guy for the ages in the Coen Brothers Oscar-winning picture. He picked up all the precursors as well for his role.
And now the upsets!
3. James Coburn, Affliction
There was clearly no front-runner in 1998 as a different actor was honored in each preceding awards show. Ed Harris took the Golden Globe for The Truman Show, Billy Bob Thornton (A Simple Plan) was victorious at the Critics Choice Awards, Robert Duvall’s role in A Civil Action was honored at SAG, and Geoffrey Rush (Elizabeth) was the BAFTA recipient. Surely one of them would win the Oscar, but it instead went to Mr. Coburn.
2. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
In 2015, the general consensus was that Sylvester Stallone would punch out the competition in his signature role for Creed. That would have been quite a feat after Rocky took Best Picture in 1976 – nearly four decades prior. Yet it didn’t materialize when Rylance made the trip to the podium.
1. Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Along the same lines, Eddie Murphy was the strong favorite for his rare dramatic work in Dreamgirls. With Jennifer Hudson as a sure thing for Supporting Actress (which did happen), the musical looked safe for a supporting sweep. The Academy surprisingly went another route by honoring Arkin.
And now to the fields overall and choosing a strongest and weakest. For the least impressive of the bunch, I’m going with 2011. Here were the nominees:
Christopher Plummer, Beginners (winner)
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
When it comes to best overall field, I chose 1993. This is the year that Tommy Lee Jones got the gold in The Fugitive. That’s a rare acting win for an action flick. It was deserved in my view and the other four nominees were very strong as well. They were:
Leonardo DiCaprio, What’s Eating Gilbert Grape
Ralph Fiennes, Schindler’s List
John Malkovich, In the Line of Fire
Pete Postlethwaite, In the Name of the Father
Furthermore, I could keep going with other deserving actors that year, including Val Kilmer in Tombstone and Sean Penn for Carlito’s Way.
The next trip down memory lane will be Best Actress and it will be up soon!
We have reached my last weekly Oscar predictions posts in the major categories for the month of October. Next week, we will see some big changes in my estimates! For starters, the listing of Best Picture possibilities will be whittled from 25 to 15. All other categories will be slimmed down from 15 possible nominees to just 10. Additionally, beginning next Thursday, I will be listing all races dealing with feature-length films. That means all tech races, Documentary Feature, Foreign Language Film, and Animated Feature are coming your way for the first time next week.
In the meantime, here’s some developments from last week to this one:
Bohemian Rhapsody, Beautiful Boy, and The Front Runner all fall out the top 25, making room at the bottom of the list for Cold War, Ben Is Back, and Hereditary. My nine predicted Best Picture nominees remain the same. A Quiet Place and Eighth Grade move to their highest rankings yet in 16th and 17th.
In Best Director, John Krasinski has his debut on the listings at #14 for A Quiet Place. The Coen Brothers work in The Ballad of Buster Scruggs falls out.
The mediocre critical reaction for BohemianRhapsody has me greatly questioning whether Rami Malek makes it in Best Actor after all. He drops from 4th to 6th with Willem Dafoe (AtEternity’sGate) now back in the fold.
John C. Reilly returns at #15 for his role in Stan & Ollie in Best Actor, knocking out Lucas Hedges for Boy Erased.
The continued switching between Lady Gaga (AStarIsBorn) and Glenn Close (TheWife) goes on with the latter reclaiming the top spot.
Maggie Gyllenhaal makes her first appearance at #13 in Actress for her role as The Kindergarten Teacher, replacing Carey Mulligan (Wildlife).
Mahershala Ali is back at #1 in Supporting Actor over Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy), who falls to third behind Sam Elliot (A Star Is Born). Robert Forster (What They Had) also notches his highest chart placement at #9.
Emma Stone (The Favourite) and Claire Foy (First Man) switch the 2-3 spots in Supporting Actress, with Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) remaining #1.
First Man is back in the top 5 for Adapted Screenplay over Widows.
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Green Book (PR: 4)
5. First Man (PR: 5)
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Vice (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Widows (PR: 11)
11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
12. The Mule (PR: 12)
13. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 13)
14. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)
15. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 15)
16. A Quiet Place (PR: 24)
17. Eighth Grade (PR: 20)
18. Boy Erased (PR: 16)
19. Leave No Trace (PR: 19)
20. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 17)
21. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 18)
22. The Hate U Give (PR: 23)
23. Cold War (PR: Not Ranked)
24. Ben Is Back (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Hereditary (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bohemian Rhapsody
Beautiful Boy
The Front Runner
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
5. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)
8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)
9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 9)
10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
11. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 11)
12. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 12)
13. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 13)
14. John Krasinski, A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jon M. Chu, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 5)
5. Willem Dafoe, AtEternity’sGate (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rami Malek, BohemianRhapsody(PR: 4)
7. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 9)
8. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 7)
9. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 10)
10. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 8)
11. Lucas Hedges, Ben Is Back (PR: 12)
12. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 11)
13. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: 13)
14. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 14)
15. John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, TheWife (PR: 2)
2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)
8. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 8)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 7)
10. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 10)
11. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 12)
12. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 11)
13. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Kindergarten Teacher (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 13)
15. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Carey Mulligan, Wildlife
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 2)
2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 1)
4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)
8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)
9. Robert Forster, What They Had (PR: 14)
10. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: 9)
11. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 11)
12. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 10)
13. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 12)
14. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 13)
15. Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 15)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
On November 9, TheGirlintheSpider’sWeb drops in theaters stateside. It had its premiere at the Rome Film Festival and reviews are out. The film is a continuation of adaptations of the bestselling Swedish crime novels originated by Stieg Larsson (this particular book was penned by David Lagercrantz). If it seems odd to have an Oscar Watch post up for the thriller, don’t forget that 2011’s TheGirlwiththeDragonTattoo nabbed five nominations: Best Actress (Rooney Mara), both Sound races, Cinematography, and Editing (which it won).
This version finds Claire Foy taking over the lead role of Lisbeth as she follows in the footsteps of Mara and Noomi Rapace before that. Don’tBreathe director Fede Alvarez takes over top duties after David Fincher made Dragon. Costars include Sverrir Gudnason, Sylvia Hoeks, LaKeith Stanfield, Stephen Merchant, and Vicky Krieps.
Early reaction is quite mixed and Web appears highly unlikely to match the many kudos that went to Fincher’s film. Critics are pointing out Foy as a highlight, but I wouldn’t look her to be a factor at all in Best Actress. Lucky for her, she is a definite factor in Supporting Actress with the already released FirstMan.
Bottom line: while Tattoo garnered Academy attention, don’t look for voters to stamp their approval here. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
The review embargo is officially lapsed for next weekend’s BohemianRhapsody, the highly publicized Queen biopic headlined by Rami Malek as Freddie Mercury. Critical reaction appears to mostly match the social media buzz that emerged a couple of weeks back.
In short – Malek gives a bravura performance as the legendary frontman while the picture itself is more of a mixed and conventional bag. At the moment, its Rotten Tomatoes score stands at just 50%. Don’t expect this to come anywhere near a Best Picture nod. In my weekly prediction posts, I’ve had this hovering in the bottom rungs of 25 possibilities. I anticipate it falling out completely on Thursday.
Malek, on the other hand, is still viable. He could especially find himself making the final five if Rhapsody soars at the box office. Yet I believe it’s a legitimate question as to whether the reviews risk pushing him out of contention.
Bottom line: Bohemian getting Best Picture attention isn’t real life. That’s just fantasy, but Malek’s nomination could still happen.
The film opens November 2. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
