Tag: oscars

2020 Oscar Predictions: December 12th Edition

The picture became a bit clearer in my view this week as The Midnight Sky and News of the World both had their review embargoes lifted. As I see it, News solidified itself as a player in multiple categories including Best Picture. Sky, on the other hand, will likely only contend for some technical races due to its mixed reaction.

My nine estimated BP nominees has stayed remarkably consistent over the past several weeks. We shall see how unscreened late comers such as The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Judas and the Black Messiah, and The Mauritanian factor in once eyes are on them.

There’s only two significant changes in the main races as I’ve put Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit) back in the Actress fold, replacing Meryl Streep in The Prom. We will see if this holds as I always feel a bit skittish about taking Meryl out. In Adapted Screenplay, News of the World returns to the five and that displaces I’m Thinking of Ending Things. 

And while I’m not projecting that Sound of Metal will get more than I said last week (Best Actor and Sound nods), it does seem to be a picture on the rise.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 3)

3. Mank (PR: 2)

4. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)

5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)

6. Minari (PR: 7)

7. The Father (PR: 6)

8. News of the World (PR: 8)

9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

11. Soul (PR: 11)

12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)

13. Promising Young Woman (PR: 14)

14. Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Prom (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

The Midnight Sky 

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)

2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)

5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 6)

7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)

8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)

9. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 8)

10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 2)

3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)

4. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)

5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)

7. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 5)

8. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)

9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)

10. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 8)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)

3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 4)

4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)

5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)

7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)

8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)

9. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ben Affleck, The Way Back (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Tom Holland, Cherry

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)

2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)

4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)

5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 6)

7. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)

8. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 9)

9. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday 

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Leslie Odom, Jr, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)

3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 2)

4. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 7)

7. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

9. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)

10. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Minari (PR: 3)

4. Soul (PR: 4)

5. Promising Young Woman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)

8. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)

9. On the Rocks (PR: 9)

10. Palm Springs (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Supernova

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. The Father (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

5. News of the World (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)

7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 5)

8. First Cow (PR: 8)

9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Mauritanian (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The Midnight Sky 

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)

3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. Onward (PR: 4)

5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)

7. Connected (PR: 8)

8. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 7)

9. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Lupin III: The First

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)

2. The Dissident (PR: 5)

3. Time (PR: 2)

4. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)

5. Boys State (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Crip Camp (PR: 4)

7. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 7)

8. Collective (PR: 8)

9. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 9)

10. 76 Days (PR: 10)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Another Round (PR: 1)

2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)

3. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)

4. My Little Sister (PR: 4)

5. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 6)

7. Collective (PR: 8)

8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 7)

9. Charlatan (PR: 9)

10. Atlantis (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Notturno

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 6)

7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)

8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)

10. Minari (PR: 10)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

2. Mank (PR: 1)

3. Emma (PR: 4)

4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)

5. Mulan (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)

7. News of the World (PR: 8)

8. The Prom (PR: 7)

9. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. The Father (PR: 4)

4. Nomadland (PR: 3)

5. News of the World (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)

8. Tenet (PR: 9)

9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

10. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)

3. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)

4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)

5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mank (PR: 3)

7. Mulan (PR: 8)

8. Pinocchio (PR: 7)

9. Emma (PR: 9)

10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wonder Woman 1984

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Soul (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)

5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

7. Tenet (PR: 8)

8. Minari (PR: 10)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)

2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)

3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)

5. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 8)

7. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 10)

8. “(If Only You Could) See Me” from Mank (PR: 7)

9. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 6)

10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Love Myself” from The High Note

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

3. Mulan (PR: 4)

4. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: Not Ranked)

5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma (PR: 5)

7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 3)

8. News of the World (PR: 7)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

10. The Prom (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Wonder Woman 1984

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Sound of Metal (PR: 2)

3. Tenet (PR: 3)

4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)

5. Soul (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 8)

7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)

8. News of the World (PR: 5)

9. Greyhound (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Trial of the Chicago 7

The Prom

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 2)

2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 1)

3. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 3)

4. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)

5. The Invisible Man (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mulan (PR: 5)

7. Mank (PR: 9)

8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)

9. Greyhound (PR: 7)

10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)

And my latest estimates have these movies garnering the following numbers for nominations:

11 Nominations

Mank

8 Nominations

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

7 Nominations

The Trial of the Chicago 7

6 Nominations

The Father, News of the World, Nomadland

5 Nominations

One Night in Miami

4 Nominations

Soul

3 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods, Hillbilly Elegy, The Midnight Sky, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

2 Nominations

Birds of Prey, Minari, Mulan, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet

1 Nomination

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, My Little Sister, Night of the Kings, On the Rocks, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984

 

Oscar Watch: News of the World

When Paul Greengrass directed Tom Hanks seven years ago in Captain Phillips, the result was six Oscar nominations that included Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, and a supporting nod for newcomer Barkhad Abdi. It was not nominated for Director or Hanks in Best Actor (something I still vehemently disagree with). With the release of their second collaboration on Christmas, the western drama News of the World, history could absolutely repeat itself.

The review embargo is up today and News is currently breaking at 91% on Rotten Tomatoes. While that’s a great rating, much of the critical reaction is not of the rave variety. However, this looks to be a feature that should appeal to older members of the Academy and that very well could be enough to nab it a Best Picture nomination. I suspect that when I update my Oscar predictions tomorrow on the blog, I will still have it listed in my estimated nine.

It’s been 20 years since the beloved Hanks scored his last Best Actor nod for Cast Away, though he was featured in last year’s Supporting Actor derby for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. Like in 2013 when he was snubbed for Phillips, this year’s contest is likely too crowded for him to be included. Like with Abdi, on the other hand, there is a newcomer here that could garner attention. 12-year-old Helena Zengel is his costar and the fifth slot in Supporting Actress seems to be open. This is assuming that Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Olivia Colman (The Father), and Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman) make the cut and I currently am. Zengel, who critics are certainly praising, is a strong hopeful for #5.

Greengrass may struggle to make it in for his direction just as he did with Phillips. Adapted Screenplay (by the director and Luke Davies) seems more of a possibility. There’s also tech races where it stands a solid chance and this includes Original Score, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, and Sound. My feeling is that it will show up in most or all. In fact, I’ll go out on an early limb and say that News of the World will get the most 2020 Oscar nominations without winning any. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Wild Mountain Thyme

Despite a number of critically praised lead and supporting roles, Emily Blunt has yet to break through with Oscar voters. That certainly makes her one of the most high profile actresses yet to get a nomination. Other awards shows and critics groups (including SAG and the Globes) have feted her in pics including The Devil Wears Prada, The Young Victoria, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen, Edge of Tomorrow, Sicario, Into the Woods, The Girl on the Train, A Quiet Place, and Mary Poppins Returns.

Her time probably isn’t far off, but it doesn’t sound as if she’ll get there with Wild Mountain Thyme. The romcom set in Ireland is slated for release this weekend. It comes from director John Patrick Shanley (adapting his own play) and he was on the radar screen of the Academy over three decades ago with Moonstruck, in which he won Best Original Screenplay. Costars here include Jamie Dornan, Jon Hamm, and Christopher Walken.

The reviews out today are on the negative side and it currently sports just a 33% Rotten Tomatoes score. Simply put, any Oscar attention is highly unlikely to materialize. On the other hand, the Hollywood Foreign Press has nominated Blunt six times. If distributor Bleecker Street mounts a spirited campaign for her in the Musical/Comedy category, I wouldn’t count her out for inclusion. The Academy is a totally different story. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: The Midnight Sky

Netflix’s slew of December releases that are potential Oscar contenders continues with George Clooney’s The Midnight Sky. The sci-fi drama stars its director as an Arctic scientist attempting to prevent a group of astronauts from their return to Earth due to environmental hazards. The roughly $100 million budgeted pic hits theaters in a limited fashion this Friday though most viewers will see it when it materializes on the streaming service on December 23rd. Costars include Felicity Jones, David Oyelowo, Tiffany Boone, Kyle Chandler, Demian Bichir, and Caoilinn Springall.

The review embargo lifted today and it is most certainly a mixed bag. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is at only 54%. Numerous critics have brought up recent and similar genre fare in comparison, including Gravity (which also featured Clooney), Interstellar, The Martian, and Ad Astra. Several of them say that Sky doesn’t measure up.

It has been 15 years since Clooney’s work behind the camera has significantly attracted Oscar attention with Good Night, and Good Luck. His last two directorial efforts, The Monuments Men and Suburbicon, were both critical and commercial disappointments. With a number of write-ups skewing so-so or even negative, it’s hard to envision Sky aiming for a Picture nod or for any of the actors involved to contend.

On the other hand, reviews do suggest this could be a factor in some technical races. Most notable of them is Visual Effects, Production Design, and Sound. There is also plenty of praise for the Original Score by Alexandre Desplat, a two-time winner for his work on The Grand Budapest Hotel and The Shape of Water. 

Bottom line: it will be a struggle for The Midnight Sky to reach the attention of voters in the major races, but it could still end up with close to a handful of nominations. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Black Bear

Lawrence Michael Levine’s Black Bear premiered long, long ago in something called January 2020 at the Sundance Film Festival and became available for streaming this weekend. The drama casts Aubrey Plaza as a filmmaker looking for inspiration in dangerous places and many critics are calling it her finest performance to date. Costars include Sarah Gadon and Christopher Abbott.

The Rotten Tomatoes score stands at a sturdy 87%. Plaza is having a nice year as reviewers also praised her supporting work in the recent holiday rom com Happiest Season. That said, I have discussed how competitive Best Actress is numerous times here. Black Bear probably isn’t high profile enough to earn its star her first Oscar nod, but she’s certainly earning her critical bonafides as of late. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

2020 Oscar Predictions: December 4th Edition

I took a little Turkey Day hiatus from my Oscar estimates, but I’m back at it today with fresh predictions! The major categories have stayed the same (albeit with some ranking movement) with one notable exception. In Best Actress, I have moved both Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) and Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit) out of the top five in favor of Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) and Meryl Streep (The Prom).

We also have changes in both Screenplay races. In Original, Promising Young Woman (which seems to be gaining steam) is elevated over Da 5 Bloods. In Adapted, I’m Thinking of Ending Things gets the 5 spot and replaces News of the World. 

You can peruse all the movement below and I’ll be back at it next week!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 3)

3. Nomadland (PR: 2)

4. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)

5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)

6. The Father (PR: 5)

7. Minari (PR: 7)

8. News of the World (PR: 8)

9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)

11. Soul (PR: 10)

12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)

13. The Prom (PR: 14)

14. Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Midnight Sky (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

First Cow

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)

2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)

4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 7)

7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)

8. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 8)

9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)

10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 2)

3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)

4. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 6)

5. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)

7. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)

8. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 4)

9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)

10. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)

3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)

4. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)

5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)

7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)

8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)

9. Ben Affleck, The Way Back (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Colin Firth, Supernova

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)

2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)

4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)

5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 6)

7. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)

8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)

9. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Nicole Kidman, The Prom

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 2)

3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 3)

4. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

7. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 7)

8. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 8)

9. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

10. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Shia LaBeouf, Pieces of a Woman 

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Minari (PR: 3)

4. Soul (PR: 4)

5. Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)

8. Sound of Metal (PR: 9)

9. On the Rocks (PR: 8)

10. Supernova (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. The Father (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

5. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. News of the World (PR: 5)

7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)

8. First Cow (PR: 8)

9. The Midnight Sky (PR: 9)

10. The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm 

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)

3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. Onward (PR: 4)

5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Willoughbys (PR: 8)

7. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 7)

8. Connected (PR: 5)

9. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)

10. Lupin III: The First (PR: 10)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)

2. Time (PR: 4)

3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 2)

4. Crip Camp (PR: 3)

5. The Dissident (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Boys State (PR: 7)

7. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)

8. Collective (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 10)

10. 76 Days (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

MLK/FBI

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Another Round (PR: 1)

2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)

3. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)

4. My Little Sister (PR: 7)

5. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)

7. Dear Comrades! (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Collective (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Charlatan (PR: 10)

10. Notturno (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Life Ahead

The Disciple

Atlantis 

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 6)

7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)

9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)

10. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

One Night in Miami 

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

3. Mulan (PR: 5)

4. Emma (PR: 3)

5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 4)

7. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)

8. News of the World (PR: 7)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rebecca

Ammonite 

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Nomadland (PR: 3)

4. The Father (PR: 4)

5. News of the World (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)

7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

8. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)

9. Tenet (PR: 8)

10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Midnight Sky 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)

3. Mank (PR: 2)

4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)

5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)

7. Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Mulan (PR: 7)

9. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Prom

The Trial of the Chicago 7

News of the World 

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 2)

2. Soul (PR: 1)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)

5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

8. Tenet (PR: 6)

9. One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Minari (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Ammonite

Best Original Song 

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)

2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)

3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 6)

7. “(If Only You Could) Save Me” from Mank (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)

9. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

“Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

“Carried Me with You” from Onward 

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)

3. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)

4. Mulan (PR: 2)

5. Emma (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)

7. News of the World (PR: 4)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

9. The Prom (PR: 10)

10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rebecca

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 2)

2. Sound of Metal (PR: 4)

3. Tenet (PR: 1)

4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)

5. News of the World (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)

7. Soul (PR: 3)

8. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greyhound

Da 5 Bloods

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)

2. Tenet (PR: 1)

3. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 7)

4. The Invisible Man (PR: 3)

5. Mulan (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)

7. Greyhound (PR: 4)

8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 6)

9. Mank (PR: 10)

10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 9)

And that equates to the following films garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:

12 Nominations

Mank

7 Nominations

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7

6 Nominations

The Father, News of the World, Nomadland

5 Nominations

The Midnight Sky, One Night in Miami

3 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods, Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan, Soul

2 Nominations

Emma, Minari, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

1 Nomination

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, I’m No Longer Here, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, My Little Sister, Night of the Kings, On the Rocks, Onward, The Prom, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984

Oscar Watch: Let Them All Talk

HBO Max (which is certainly in the news today for other reasons involving Warner Bros) has teamed with Steven Soderbergh and Meryl Streep for the streaming debut of Let Them All Talk on December 10th. The dramedy casts 21-time Oscar nominee Streep as an author taking a cruise with friends including Candice Bergen and Dianne Wiest. Lucas Hedge and Gemma Chan round out the supporting cast.

The review embargo is up today and based on a dozen write-ups, it actually sits at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. However, its Oscar chances seem iffy and that’s probably being generous. While some critics are quite positive, many of their takes do not indicate this will be any sort of awards hopeful. In fact, Streep’s 22nd nod is more likely to be in Netflix’s The Prom, which debuts just one day after Talk. 

Soderbergh and Streep had another collaboration in 2019 with The Laundromat. It was long thought of as a potential Academy player until mixed reviews sunk its prospects. With this teaming, it was never really thought of as a contender and that should hold true. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: The Prom

Prior to its December 11th bow on Netflix, the musical romantic comedy The Prom has screened for critics and the general consensus is that it’s a crowd pleaser that should see plenty of streams in a few days. An adaptation of the 2018 Broadway musical, super producer Ryan Murphy handles directorial duties with an impressive cast including Meryl Streep, James Corden, Nicole Kidman, Keegan-Michael Key, Ariana DeBose, Kerry Washington, and Jo Ellen Pellman.

The current Rotten Tomatoes score sits at 75%. Plenty of reviews praise its feel good vibes and that could be especially welcome in this thing we call 2020. On the other hand, the negative reaction is quite negative and that includes some pretty high profile publications that include EW and The AV Club. Netflix has plenty of major Oscar contenders this year and I wonder how hard they’ll press for inclusion here. While it should nab some Golden Globe nods (including the Musical/Comedy Picture race), the Academy’s love is far less certain.

If audiences sing its praises and it’s a runaway hit, I believe The Prom has an outside shot at Picture. As for its performers, Streep should never be counted out and this would mark her 22nd nomination. I feel her chances in the final five are better than they were a couple weeks back, but I’m currently reluctant having her make the cut. Same goes for Nicole Kidman in Supporting Actress or anyone else.

The best shot could be in down the line categories such as Costume Design, Sound, or one of its songs (though the recently released “Wear Your Crown” with Streep rapping has drawn plenty of eye rolls). Bottom line: don’t discount The Prom‘s ability to make it into the dance in Picture or Actress, but it’ll need lots of goodwill to get there.

James Bond: An Oscar History

Of the six actors to have played the most famous spy in cinematic history, only one of them has ever been nominated for an Oscar. That would be, of course, Sean Connery and he was victorious in 1987 for his supporting work in The Untouchables. It is worth noting that the last two Bonds (Pierce Brosnan, Daniel Craig) have Golden Globes nods in the Musical/Comedy category for The Matador and Knives Out, respectively.

With the recent death of Sir Connery, this got me thinking… how many actors from the nearly 60 year old franchise have been recognized by the Academy? And how much Oscar attention has the series itself received? For the first question, it was rather limited until Craig took over the role. For the second question, 9 out of the 24 official 007 entries have managed to get on awards voters radar screens. So let’s break it down, shall we?

Goldfinger (1964) was the third feature in the franchise and it marked the first nomination and win for the Bond catalogue. The pic took the Best Sound Effects trophy. One year later, Thunderball won for its Visual Effects. Connery’s final official appearance in 1971’s Diamonds Are Forever resulted in a nod for its sound.

When Roger Moore took over the part, his debut saw the first theme song nominated courtesy of Paul McCartney’s title track to 1973’s Live and Let Die. There would also be song nods for both The Spy Who Loved Me (1977) and For Your Eyes Only in 1981. Spy would mark the first Bond flick to score multiple mentions with its score and art direction. And Moore’s 1979 space opus Moonraker was nominated for its visual effects.

George Lazenby’s one-off appearance in On Her Majesty’s Secret Service, Timothy Dalton’s two 1980s pictures, and the 1990s-early 2000s four film Pierce Brosnan run yielded zero Oscar mentions. Same goes for Craig’s first two outings Casino Royale and Quantum of Solace. 

So it had been over 30 years since a Bond adventure had been recognized on Oscar night when 2012’s Skyfall landed a franchise record 5 nominations. It won two with Adele’s theme song and its sound editing. The other nods were Score, Sound Mixing, and Cinematography. The song love would continue with 2015’s Spectre when Sam Smith won for his tune.

Add that up and we have 15 total nominations for the series and 5 wins.

We move to the thespians and their fortune at the big show. As mentioned, before the recent run of Craig titles, it was a bit limited. In fact, the number of actors who are Oscar nominees from the Craig run nearly equals everything that came before it. Giancarlo Giannini appeared in Casino and Quantum and he was a Best Actor nominee in 1975 for Seven Beauties. Ralph Fiennes (otherwise known as M) is a double nominee for Schindler’s List and The English Patient. Naomie Harris (or Moneypenny) achieved a Supporting Actress mention for 2016’s Moonlight. Albert Finney showed up in Skyfall and he was nominated five times in his long career. Craig’s original “M” was Judi Dench and she dates back to the Brosnan era. She’s a one-time winner with 6 other nominations.

That’s just the good guys. In the Craig era, the villains come with serious awards cred. Javier Bardem from Skyfall had taken Supporting Actor five years earlier in No Country for Old Men and is a two-time Best Actor nominee for Before Nights Falls and Biutiful. Christoph Waltz (Spectre) is a double Supporting Actor winner with Inglourious Basterds and Django Unchained. And the next pic – the oft delayed No Time to Die – has Rami Malek as its main baddie. In 2018, he gave his acceptance speech for Bohemian Rhapsody. 

Going back to the beginning, From Russia with Love featured Lotte Lenye (a 1961 nominee for The Roman Spring of Mrs. Stone) and Robert Shaw (nominated three years after Russia for A Man for All Seasons). And that’s actually the extent of performers from the Connery era nominated for Oscars… sort of. The legend did return to the role in 1983’s Never Say Never Again, though it is not considered part of the “official” catalogue. It does boast three Academy players with Klaus Maria Brandauer (Out of Africa), Max Von Sydow (Pelle the Conquerer and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close), and Kim Basinger (Supporting Actress recipient for 1997’s L.A. Confidential).

Telly Savalas costarred with Lazenby in Secret Service and he was nominated seven years earlier for his work in Birdman of Alcatraz. In the Moore era, there’s just Topol. He’s best known his nominated work in Fiddler on the Roof and he costarred in For Your Eyes Only. In the Dalton double feature, we have Benicio del Toro as he was a henchman in Licence to Kill. Over a decade later, he would win Supporting Actor for Traffic and get another nod for 21 Grams. Things picked up a bit with Brosnan. In addition to Dench, a trio of actresses were on their way or had already achieved nominations. Halle Berry co-headlined Die Another Day one year after winning Actress for Monster’s Ball. Minnie Driver had a small role in Goldeneye and would have her breakout part (along with Supporting Actress inclusion) two years later with Good Will Hunting. And Rosamund Pike was also in Die Another Day a decade plus before her Actress nod for Gone Girl. 

A final word. Not one of the 24 released 007 features has achieved any acting, directing, writing, or picture nominations of its own. Skyfall probably came the closest as some prognosticators wondered whether it could be the first to nab a Picture nod. It didn’t materialize, but its five nominations indicate it might have come the closest. Indeed, Daniel Craig’s time as Bond has seen him costar with the most Academy friendly costars. Let’s see if the next performer to play the iconic spy gets to act alongside that same kind of pedigree.

Oscar Watch – The Croods: A New Age

Seven and a half years after DreamWorks Animation had a prehistoric animated comedic hit on their hands with the original, The Croods: A New Age hits theaters this Wednesday. It will surely be a different box office story in these COVID times as part 2 will follow with its PVOD unveiling in time for Christmas. The toon is directed by Joel Crawford and returns the vocal stylings of Nicolas Cage, Emma Stone, Ryan Reynolds, Catherine Keener, and Cloris Leachman. New faces behind the mics include Peter Dinklage, Leslie Mann, and Kelly Marie Tran.

The review embargo ended today and the results are mostly positive with a 75% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s in line with the 72% achieved by its predecessor. In 2013, part 1 managed a Best Animated Feature nod. It was defeated by a massive Pixar front runner by the name of Frozen. 

2020 could see history repeat itself with the caveman family. One could argue that it’s easier to slide into the final five this year and A New Age looks to do so. Yet there is once again a heavy favorite to win the prize and that is Soul from (you guessed it) Pixar. Other acclaimed titles such as Wolfwalkers and Over the Moon appear to be likely nominees and Pixar has another hopeful with Onward (though after the snub of Frozen II from last year, it’s not a guarantee that one makes it in).

Croods could easily fill the fourth or fifth slot come nomination time, but I wouldn’t chisel its inclusion in pen just yet. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…