My Case Of posts for the eight Best Picture players arrives at alphabetical entry #2 and that’s Judas and the Black Messiah. If you missed my entry for The Father, you can find it here:
Like The Father, this Warner Bros/HBO Max drama performed quite well on nomination morning with 6 mentions. In addition to the big race, Judas has two nods in Supporting Actor with Daniel Kaluuya (garnering his second nom after Get Out) and Lakeith Stanfield. Kaluuya is considered the frontrunner. It also got an Original Screenplay slot, which is usually key to serious BP contention. This was one of the later entries in the expanded Oscar calendar (arriving in mid February in theaters and streaming). Voters clearly like what they saw.
The Case Against Judas and the Black Messiah
Also like The Father, Judas missed in some races that usually coincide with a BP victory. Most notable is Best Director (where first timer Shaka King was left out) and Best Film Editing. It also failed to nab a Drama nomination at the Golden Globes.
The Verdict
Judas clearly came on strong late with the Academy, but its misses in significant races and previous precursors make Judas a long shot to win it all.
Now that Oscar nominations are out, this evening begins my (gulp) 33 part series outlining the cases for and against the nominees in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting races. I will start with write-ups on the 8 movies recognized and then move to the directing and acting categories. We begin with Florian Zeller’s The Father:
The Case For The Father
The Alzheimer’s drama has been on the awards radar for over a year when it premiered at the Sundance Film Festival in January 2020. Sitting at 99% on Rotten Tomatoes, it’s actually got the best rating of the pictures in contention. It’s fair to say The Father over performed on nomination morning with 6 mentions, including its two stars Anthony Hopkins (previous winner for The Silence of the Lambs) and Olivia Colman (Best Actress recipient two years back for The Favourite) and Best Adapted Screenplay. The Golden Globes also were very kind with their nods for it.
The Case Against The Father
While it came on strong towards the end with voters, its omission in Best Director for Zeller is a big miss. While not unheard of, it’s very rarefor a feature to take the big prize without its filmmaker making it in. The Globes put it in their mix, but it resulted in no victories.
The Verdict
Of the 8 BP hopefuls, I suspect The Father appears most likely to come up completely empty-handed on April 25th.
My Case of posts will continue with Judas and the Black Messiah…
To Oscar prognosticators like yours truly, today was like Christmas morning as nominations were unwrapped early for the 93rd Annual Academy Awards, airing April 25th. Some things never change with the prediction game. There were categories where I was perfect (3 of them) and, as has become tradition, a dreaded race where I whiffed at 2/5.
As was the most likely scenario, Mank led all films with 10 nominations. Yet it did so by missing some key races that are usually needed to nab a Best Picture victory. This was followed by six pictures garnering six mentions: The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Nomadland, Sound of Metal, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Some of those over performed. Others – not so much.
Overall this blogger went 80/104 on estimates and in this topsy turvy year, I’ll take it. Let’s break it down race by race, shall we?
Best Picture
Nominees: The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
How I Did: 7/9
The magic number of nominees ended up being 8 and I projected 9. I’ll say again… I’m very happy that the Academy is going with a set 10 again beginning in 2022. This means it was Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and One Night in Miami that missed and The Father (which had a solid showing) in. Judas, Minari and Sound of Metal proved their anticipated status as late bloomers making the cut.
Best Director
Nominees: Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman), David Fincher (Mank), Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
How I Did: 4/5
The Academy made history today when they nominated two women in Director for the first time. This was expected, but it is worth noting that Regina King (One Night in Miami) was a contender who missed the cut. That’s not where I went wrong as Vinterberg came out of nowhere to get a spot. While Another Round is expected to emerge victorious in International Feature Film, its director became the rare nominee to get in without a Best Picture slot. And despite being nominated for his writing, Aaron Sorkin (Trial) couldn’t get into this one.
Best Actress
Nominees: Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
I can’t put myself on the back too much here. This was widely seen as the most probable quintet and it remained true to form. Potential surprise picks like Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) and Golden Globe Musical/Comedy winner Rosamund Pike (I Care a Lot) didn’t materialize.
Best Actor
Nominees: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Gary Oldman (Mank), Steven Yeun (Minari)
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Again, no shockers here. Any late momentum by Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round) or Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian) was squashed and Boseman stands tall as the major frontrunner.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)
How I Did: 4/5
For the past couple of weeks, there have been six likely nominees and only five spots. I went with Golden Globe winner Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian) over Seyfried. Fun fact: Foster is the first Globe winner from this category in 44 years to not land an Oscar mention. This is a wide open acting race (more so than the others by far).
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami), Paul Raci (Sound of Metal), Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)
How I Did: 4/5
The morning’s biggest surprise is the inclusion of Stanfield with his Judas costar Kaluuya. That has nothing to do with performance itself as Warner Bros. actually campaigned for Stanfield in Best Actor. The Academy simply ignored that and chose to put him here. In other words, this is the nomination that nobody saw coming. His inclusion prevented Boseman from being a double nominee for Da 5 Bloods (which had an almost nonexistent showing).
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
How I Did: 4/5
No Mank is the headline here as Sound of Metal grabbed the spot. This omission is what makes a Mank BP victory highly doubtful.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The Father, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, The White Tiger
How I Did: 3/5
Ma Rainey‘s bleaker than expected morning continued with no love here. Same goes for The Mauritanian (which goose egged today). In their place? Borat and The White Tiger.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: Onward, Over the Moon, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Soul, Wolfwalkers
How I Did: 4/5
It was Sheep over The Croods: A New Age in a competition where Disney/Pixar’s Soul should dominate.
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees: Collective, Crip Camp, The Mole Agent, My Octopus Teacher, Time
How I Did: 3/5
This category (unpredictable usually) was a real head scratcher in 2020. I had Dick Johnson Is Dead and Welcome to Chechnya in over Crip Camp and The Mole Agent. This is a toughie to project, but I’ll say Time might have an edge.
Best International Feature Film
Nominees: Another Round, Better Days, Collective, The Man Who Sold His Skin, Quo Vadis, Aida?
How I Did: 2/5 (ugh)
The dreaded 2/5 came here with Better Days, double nominee Collective, and the charmingly titled The Man Who Sold His Skin in over my picks of Dear Comrades!, La Llorona, and Two of Us. This looks like Round‘s race to lose at press time.
Best Cinematography
Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, News of the World, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
How I Did: 4/5
Judas over Minari was where I went wrong, but not shocking considering the former’s very good day. You may have noticed this is the first mention of News of the World, which picked up four tech nods but got zilch in the big derbies.
Best Costume Design
Nominees: Emma, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Mulan, Pinocchio
How I Did: 4/5
Not many were saying Pinocchio would play here, but it nosed out my Ammonite selection.
Best Film Editing
Nominees: The Father, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
How I Did: 4/5
This is another high profile miss for Mank as The Father was selected instead. Of its six nods, this and Original Screenplay is where Trial has the best shot at gold.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Pinocchio
How I Did: 4/5
And here’s a scenario where I was saying Mank would miss. It didn’t as it edged out Birds of Prey, which was called out zero times this morning.
Best Original Score
Nominees: Da 5 Bloods, Mank, Minari, News of the World, Soul
How I Did: 4/5
Here marks the sole mention for Bloods in a race where it wasn’t anticipated. It got in over my pick of The Midnight Sky. Like Animated Feature, expect Soul to reign supreme here.
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah, “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7, “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, “lo Si” from The Life Ahead, “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
How I Did: 4/5
The chances of Will Ferrell and Rachel McAdams belting out their ballad from the Netflix comedy Eurovision became a reality! It makes the cut over “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (which also missed Documentary Feature).
Best Production Design
Nominees: The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, News of the World, Tenet
How I Did: 3/5
This is where Mank stands its greatest chance at a victory among the ten nods. The Father and Tenet (both kind of unexpected here) get in over The Midnight Sky and The Trial of the Chicago 7.
Best Sound
Nominees: Greyhound, Mank, News of the World, Soul, Sound of Metal
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
I’ll take it and the winner will probably be the one with the category name in its title.
Best Visual Effects
Nominees: Love and Monsters, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, The One and Only Ivan, Tenet
How I Did: 3/5
The One and Only Ivan was my runner-up. Love and Monsters, on the other hand, was not expected. They get in over Mank and Welcome to Chechnya.
To recap, the following pictures nabbed these numbers in terms of nominations:
10 Nominations
Mank
6 Nominations
The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Nomadland, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Better Days, Crip Camp, Da 5 Bloods, Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, Greyhound, The Life Ahead, Love and Monsters, The Man Who Sold His Skin, The Midnight Sky, The Mole Agent, My Octopus Teacher, The One and Only Ivan, Onward, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Time, The United States vs. Billie Holiday, The White Tiger, Wolfwalkers
Quick tidbits:
12 of the 20 acting nominees are first-timers (Day, Kirby, Ahmed, Boseman, Yeun, Bakalova, Seyfried, Youn, Cohen, Odom, Raci, Stanfield)
3 are previous nominees (Mulligan, Close, Kaluuya)
5 are previous winners (Davis, McDormand, Hopkins, Oldman, Colman)
Of the five directors, only Fincher has been nominated before and none have won
So this begins the next phase of my Oscar predicting as I will do a “Case Of” post individually for all the Picture, Director, and acting nominees. Yes, that means 33 posts in the next several weeks where I outline the pros and cons of each nominee taking the gold or coming up cold. Stay tuned!
Six years ago in Oscar history began an impressive two year run for filmmaker Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu with Birdman emerging as the big winner of the evening. The film took Best Picture and Director over its major competitor – Richard Linklater’s Boyhood. This was a ceremony in which the largest category did have some suspense. Birdman took the prize over the aforementioned Boyhood and six other pics: American Sniper (the year’s top grosser), The Grand Budapest Hotel (marking Wes Anderson’s first and only Picture nominee), The Imitation Game, Selma, The Theory of Everything, and Whiplash.
In this blogger’s perfect world, Dan Gilroy’s Nightcrawler would have been recognized. It was my favorite movie of that year so get used to seeing it pop up in this post. Other notable selections from 2014 left on the cutting room floor: David Fincher’s Gone Girl, Bong Joon-ho’s Snowpiercer, and Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher.
Mr. Miller did have the notable distinction of being nominated for Best Director despite his work not showing up in Best Picture (very rare these days). As mentioned, Inarritu took the gold over Miller as well as Linklater, Anderson, and Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game). Gilroy, Fincher, and Joon-ho might have warranted consideration in my view as well as Chazelle’s bravura debut in Whiplash.
One could argue that Nightcrawler isn’t your prototypical Picture contender. However, Jake Gyllenhaal being left out of the five Actor contenders stands as one of the noteworthy snubs in recent history. It was Eddie Redmayne emerging victorious for The Theory of Everything over his closest competitor Michael Keaton (Birdman). Other nominees: the three C’s of Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper, picking up his third nomination in a row), and Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game).
There is a voluminous list of solid performances beyond just Gyllenhaal’s that were left wanting. It includes Ben Affleck (Gone Girl), Chadwick Boseman (Get On Up), Bill Murray (St. Vincent), David Oyelowo (Selma), Joaquin Phoenix (Inherent Vice), Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner), and Miles Teller (Whiplash).
In Best Actress, Julianne Moore triumphed for Still Alice after four previous nominations without a win. She took the honor over Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night), Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything), Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl), and Reese Witherspoon (Wild). Moore’s selection was one of the easiest to project as she’d been a sturdy frontrunner all season.
Looking back, how about Emily Blunt in Edge of Tomorrow? Its action genre trappings probably prevented consideration, but she might have made my quintet. Amy Adams won the Golden Globe for Actress in Musical/Comedy, but missed here.
Another easy (and absolutely deserved) winner was J.K. Simmons in Supporting Actor for Whiplash over Robert Duvall (The Judge), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood), Edward Norton (Birdman), and Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher).
I will yet again mention Nightcrawler as I might have considered Riz Ahmed. There’s also Josh Brolin in Inherent Vice.
Boyhood nabbed its major race victory in Supporting Actress with Patricia Arquette. Other nominees were Laura Dern (Wild), Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game), Emma Stone (Birdman), and the always in contention Meryl Streep for Into the Woods.
As for others, I’ll start with (surprise) Rene Russo in Nightcrawler. Others include both Melissa McCarthy and Naomi Watts for St. Vincent in addition to Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year) and Katherine Waterston (Inherent Vice).
My Oscar History will continue soon with 2015 as Mr. Inarritu will dominate the director race yet again while the Academy chose to spotlight something in Best Picture!
Despite a trio of performances playing well-known figures in 42, Get On Up, and Marshall and creating an iconic superhero in Black Panther, Chadwick Boseman had never been nominated for an Oscar when he passed last summer. That will change come Monday when nominations are announced. The only question is: will it change twice?
In the Best Actor field, Boseman is the frontrunner for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. It is a given that his name will be called and it is very likely that the envelope in that race will contain his name. If and when that happens, he will be the first posthumous winner in the lead actor competition since Peter Finch in Network 44 years ago.
Up until very recently, I had consistently listed Boseman at #4 in the Supporting Actor derby for Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods. Yet when I released my Oscar predictions on Thursday (which you can find linked below), I decided to drop him to the runner-up slot. There are a couple of reasons.
First, Da 5 Bloods has simply not performed well in the precursors. My final predictions have the Netflix drama garnering precisely zero nods. Delroy Lindo was once seen as a competitor to Boseman in Best Actor, but he drew a blank at the Globes and SAG. If Bloods were still in the mix for Best Picture or for his costars, it might be easier to see Boseman getting in. The lack of buzz for the picture itself complicates things.
Second, an argument could be made that because Chadwick is such a favorite for Actor, voters will focus on that and not feel obligated to write his name for the supporting field. There are only 3 shoo-ins for nods in the category in my view: Boseman’s Black Panther costar Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), and Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami). The four and five slots could be filled by Boseman, Paul Raci (Sound of Metal), Bill Murray (On the Rocks), David Strathairn (Nomadland, who could ride its projected Best Picture winner momentum), or even a latecomer like young Alan Kim in Minari. I ultimately went with Raci and Strathairn.
Bottom line: Chadwick Boseman is well on his way to his first Oscar nod and probable win. A double nomination is trickier.
Well… here we are. After about seven months of (mostly) weekly predictions and trying to put the puzzle piece together that is the 2020 Oscar season, my final predictions have arrived. The Academy’s picks will be revealed on Monday morning in a crazy year that includes selections from January and February of 2021. This is the last year where there can be anywhere from 5-10 Best Picture nominees. Next year that shifts to a fixed 10 (thank goodness). I’m sticking with nine since that’s been the average number, but who knows what’ll happen?
In this wild COVID time frame, it’s something to look back at my initial predictions back in August. How many nominations will Dune and The French Dispatch receive? Will Jennifer Hudson nab her second nod for Respect? Can Joaquin Phoenix make it back to back with C’Mon C’Mon? How will West Side Story do? Of course, all of those titles and more have been pushed back to the next Oscar season in a schedule that was ever shifting.
We are left with plenty of serious contenders and some races (the Supporting Acting ones come to mind) that seem especially tricky to project this time around. For each race, I’m revealing my predicted nominees as well as my first and second runners-up. On Monday, I’ll have my reaction to the nominees and how I did. One thing is likely: there will be surprises and snubs. There always are.
Yet after this topsy-turvy Oscar season and thousands of words dedicated to piecing the puzzle together, here’s where I have landed!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
1st Runner-Up: The Father
2nd Runner-Up: News of the World
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
David Fincher, Mank
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
1st Runner-Up: Regina King, One Night in Miami
2nd Runner-Up: Florian Zeller, The Father
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
1st Runner-Up: Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot
2nd Runner-Up: Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari
1st Runner-Up: Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian
2nd Runner-Up: Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Yuh-jung Youn, Minari
1st Runner-Up: Amanda Seyfried, Mank
2nd Runner-Up: Helena Zengel, News of the World
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
David Strathairn, Nomadland
1st Runner-Up: Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
2nd Runner-Up: Alan Kim, Minari
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7
1st Runner-Up: Sound of Metal
2nd Runner-Up: Soul
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The Mauritanian
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
1st Runner-Up: News of the World
2nd Runner-Up: The White Tiger
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
The Croods: A New Age
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
1st Runner-Up: The Willoughbys
2nd Runner-Up: Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
Collective
Dick Johnson Is Dead
My Octopus Teacher
Time
Welcome to Chechnya
1st Runner-Up: All In: The Fight for Democracy
2nd Runner-Up: Boys State
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
Another Round
Dear Comrades!
La Llorona
Quo Vadis, Aida?
Two of Us
1st Runner-Up: Collective
2nd Runner-Up: Night of the Kings
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
1st Runner-Up: Judas and the Black Messiah
2nd Runner-Up: Cherry
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
Ammonite
Emma
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mulan
1st Runner-Up: News of the World
2nd Runner-Up: The Personal History of David Copperfield
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
1st Runner-Up: Mank
2nd Runner-Up: The Father
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
Birds of Prey
Emma
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Pinocchio
1st Runner-Up: Mank
2nd Runner-Up: The Glorias
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Minari
News of the World
Soul
1st Runner-Up: Tenet
2nd Runner-Up: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
“Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah
“Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7
“lo Si” from The Life Ahead
“Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
“Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy
1st Runner-Up: “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
2nd Runner-Up: “Rain Song” from Minari
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The Midnight Sky
News of the World
The Trial of the Chicago 7
1st Runner-Up: Mulan
2nd Runner-Up: Tenet
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
Greyhound
Mank
News of the World
Soul
Sound of Metal
1st Runner-Up: Nomadland
2nd Runner-Up: Tenet
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
Tenet
Welcome to Chechnya
1st Runner-Up: The One and Only Ivan
2nd Runner-Up: Soul
And this equates to a final tally showing these movies getting these numbers in terms of nominations:
10 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Minari, The Trial of the Chicago 7
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Nomadland
5 Nominations
Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal
4 Nominations
Judas and the Black Messiah, News of the World, One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
The Father, The Midnight Sky, Soul
2 Nominations
Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, The Mauritanian, Mulan, Welcome to Chechnya
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Ammonite, Another Round, Birds of Prey, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Collective, The Croods: A New Age, Dear Comrades!, Dick Johnson Is Dead, Greyhound, La Llorona, The Life Ahead, My Octopus Teacher, Onward, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Pinocchio, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Tenet, Time, Two of Us, The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Wolfwalkers
Be sure to check back Monday for my thoughts on what transpires on nomination morning!
February 21st was the last date I published Oscar predictions and a lot has changed since then. We have had the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. The PGA nominations came out today. All of those events have altered categories below. This also serves as the penultimate estimates as the actual nominations come out a week from today!
Let me break down the big changes in the major races:
In Best Picture, it’s Judas and the Black Messiah in my projected nine nominees. I have finally eliminated Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods from the mix. Contrary to several prognosticators and despite its notable PGA omission, I still have News of the World on my board. Titles like Sound of Metal and The Father still lurk.
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) makes her first appearance for Best Director and that drops Regina King (One Night in Miami)
Steven Yeun (Minari) vaults into the Actor race with Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) falling. In fact, I now only have Bloods getting one nomination and that’s Chadwick Boseman in Supporting Actor. I’m not super confident in that anymore since he appears to a heavy favorite to win Best Actor for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The fifth slot for Supporting Actor is now filled by David Strathairn (Nomadland) over Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Maria Bakalova’s comedic work in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm nabs the fifth Supporting Actress spot over Helena Zengel (News of the World).
In addition to these changes, we have new number ones in Best Picture (Nomadland over Trial), Supporting Actor (Daniel Kaluuya from Judas and the Black Messiah over Sacha Baron Cohen in Trial), and Supporting Actress (The Father‘s Olivia Colman over Hillbilly Elegy‘s Glenn Close).
Now… about Supporting Actress. While Boseman, Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman), and Kaluuya can rightly be called front runners in their respective categories, I’ve never seen Supporting Actress more wide open. I have Colman listed at #1 because she’s the only performer that I’m saying gets a nod with relative confidence. There’s no favorite (or favourite if you will) at the moment. Maybe the SAG Awards will help clear it up. Doubtful.
You can peruse all the activity below and I’ll have my final predictions up this Friday!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Minari (PR: 6)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
7. Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)
8. News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
10. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)
11. The Father (PR: 11)
12. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
13. Soul (PR: 13)
14. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
First Cow
Another Round
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 5)
5. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
7. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 7)
8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
9. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
10. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)
3. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
4. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 8)
7. Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
9. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 7)
10. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)
5. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 7)
8. Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)
9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
10. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
3. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 4)
4. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
5. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)
6. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)
7. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
8. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 9)
10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
7. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 6)
8. Jared Leto, The Little Things (PR: 8)
9. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
10. Alan Kim, Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Promising Young Woman (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Minari (PR: 4)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
8. Soul (PR: 9)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 8)
10. Palm Springs (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. First Cow (PR: 5)
7. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 10)
8. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
9. The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The White Tiger (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Emma
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Onward (PR: 4)
4. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 7)
8. Trolls World Tour (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: 8)
10, Earwig and the Witch (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Demon Slayer
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Time (PR: 1)
2. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 2)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
4. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 5)
5. Boys State (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Collective (PR: 6)
7. Crip Camp (PR: 7)
8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)
9. 76 Days (PR: 9)
10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Collective (PR: 5)
4. Two of Us (PR: 4)
5. A Sun (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. La Llorona (PR: 9)
7. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 7)
8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 8)
9. Night of the Kings (PR: 6)
10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
5. Minari (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 7)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 9)
7. Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
9. The Glorias (PR: 8)
10. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Father (PR: 6)
7. Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
8. Tenet (PR: 7)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
One Night in Miami
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 4)
4. Mank (PR: 3)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pinocchio (PR: 6)
7. The Glorias (PR: 7)
8. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey (PR: 10)
9. The Little Things (PR: 9)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Tenet (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Minari (PR: 5)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
9. Ammonite (PR: 10)
10. The Little Things (PR: 8)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “lo Si” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 7)
7. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 10)
8. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)
9. “Rain Song” from Minari (PR: 8)
10. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 9)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
3. News of the World (PR: 4)
4. Mulan (PR: 9)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 7)
7. Emma (PR: 2)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)
10. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Tenet (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 4)
4. Mank (PR: 3)
5. Greyhound (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
9. Soul (PR: 8)
10. Mulan (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 5)
5. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The One and Only Ivan (PR: 8)
7. Soul (PR: 6)
8. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)
9. Love and Monsters (PR: 9)
10. Bloodshot (PR: 10)
This equates to these pictures nabbing the following numbers:
13 Nominations
Mank
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, News of the World, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
Minari
5 Nominations
Judas and the Black Messiah
4 Nominations
One Night in Miami, Promising Young Woman
3 Nominations
The Father, Mulan, The Midnight Sky, Sound of Metal, Tenet
2 Nominations
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Soul, Welcome to Chechnya
1 Nomination
Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, The Croods: A New Age, Da 5 Bloods, Dick Johnson Is Dead, Greyhound, The Life Ahead, Onward, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Two of Us, The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Wolfwalkers
The long awaited sequel Coming 2 America begins streaming on Amazon Prime tomorrow as Eddie Murphy and Arsenio Hall return as their characters (plural) made famous in the 1988 classic. This was originally scheduled for the summer of 2020 before the COVID-19 pandemic changed its theatrical rollout plan and its release date.
Its review embargo lifted today and the results are mixed with a current 52% score on Rotten Tomatoes. Don’t get me wrong – no one was thinking America would vie for Best Picture or additional top line races in 2022. That’s unlike 2019’s collaboration between Murphy and Coming director Craig Brewer. That film received far better critical reaction and some chatter of a Best Actor nod for its star that never came to fruition.
There are, however, categories down the line where this could contend. The obvious one is Makeup and Hairstyling. Part 1 was nominated and lost to Beetlejuice. The original also picked up a nod for Costume Design where Dangerous Liaisons emerged with the gold. Both of those races are most certainly in play for part 2 as well as Production Design (which could be a stretch). If it manages recognition for its costumes, Ruth Carter (who won in 2018 for Black Panther) would be back in the mix.
Bottom line: audiences have waited over 30 years for the return of Eddie and Arsenio as royalty, barbers, preachers, and an atrocious R&B crooner. It could also return in the same races come Oscar time next year. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
As we await the five nominated pictures in the 2020 Animated Feature race at the Oscars, a legitimate hopeful has already emerged for 2021. This Friday, Disney’s traditionally drawn Raya and the Last Dragon debuts in theaters and on Disney Plus. The action fantasy features a mostly Asian American voice cast including Kelly Marie Tran, Awkwafina, Daniel Dae Kim, Gemma Chan, Sandra Oh, and Benedict Wong. Directing duties are handled by Don Hall (whose Big Hero 6 landed an Academy nod in 2014) and Carlos Lopez Estrada.
Reviews are up and they’re very solid at 96% on Rotten Tomatoes. Unsurprisingly, Disney has been quite the player since the inception of the animated category back in 2001. As is often the case for the studio, the Mouse Factory may well compete against itself with Pixar’s Luca slated for release this summer. That will probably occur this year with Soul and Onward as likely nominees.
Bottom line: the critical reaction for Raya (even this early in the calendar) establishes it as a sturdy contender for recognition already. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
I half jokingly said I would be happy if I got half of my Golden Globe predictions correct due to the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s unpredictable nature. And that’s exactly what happened as this blogger went 7/14.
The show provided some genuine whoppers when it came to upsets and the three biggest ones undoubtedly happened in the three actress races.
First things first. It was a good night for Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland, which took Best Picture (Drama) and Director. I predicted Zhao’s victory, but had The Trial of the Chicago 7 taking Picture. As for Aaron Sorkin’s Netflix drama, it won only in Screenplay (which I projected). This could give Nomadland the edge now at the Oscars and it turbo charges the narrative that Zhao is going to sweep the director categories with upcoming shows.
In the lead actor races, I went 2 for 2 with Chadwick Boseman in Drama for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Sacha Baron Cohen in Musical/Comedy for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, which also took Best Picture (Musical/Comedy) as was expected.
However, Maria Bakalova’s victory for Actress in Borat didn’t happen as Rosamund Pike scored a surprising win for I Care A Lot. That doesn’t bode well for Bakalova’s Supporting Actress nod from the Academy.
Speaking of Supporting Actress… whoa! Jodie Foster took the trophy for The Mauritanian and I challenge you to find anyone who saw that occurring. Foster won over my pick of Amanda Seyfried in Mank. I have yet to have Foster in my top five for the Oscars and perhaps that will change when I update my estimates tomorrow.
Yet the biggest Actress shocker was in Drama with Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday (I said Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman). This is another race where nobody foresaw this development.
I thought Baron Cohen might be a double winner, but he lost Supporting Actor to Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah. This is not unexpected as I had Kaluuya as my runner-up and his chances at Oscar gold are looking pretty solid.
The only slight upset in my projections was Another Round taking Foreign Language Film over Minari. It didn’t as Minari was victorious. As expected, Soul took Animated Film and Score and was the only picture to win two Globes other than Nomadland and Borat.
My runner-up “lo Si” from The Life Ahead was Best Song over “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami. So, as previously mentioned, I got precisely half of my selections right. Oof.
So what’s this all mean? The Golden Globes created some real head scratchers in the Actress fields and I would say there’s no certainly no Academy frontrunner at the moment for Actress and Supporting Actress. Nomadland did what it needed to do. Trial had a disappointing evening while solidifying its status as the Original Screenplay heavy favorite. Kaluuya is now the odds on pick in Supporting Actor and so is Boseman for Actor. As for Twitter… look for Jason Sudeikis’s hoodie to get the most attention.
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