My first forecast for the major Oscar races continues with Best Actor. If you missed the posts covering the supporting categories, you can find them right here:
As I pointed out in my Supporting Actor write-up, we don’t know yet where some heavy hitters will be placed. I projected Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Brad Pitt (Babylon) in supporting, but they could end up here. On the flip side, Willem Dafoe (Poor Things) is listed under Other Possibilities for Actor. We’ll see if he remains here or goes supporting.
Here’s how I have it looking in this extremely early stage. Actress is next!
My first glance at who and what I think could be on the Oscar’s radar screen for next year continues with Best Supporting Actress. If you missed my post for Supporting Actor, it’s right here:
At this early stage, there’s obviously plenty of mystery for category placements. For instance – Women Talking could have its whole cast (that includes Frances McDormand, Claire Foy, Rooney Mara, and Jessie Buckley) in this race. I’m putting McDormand in lead at this juncture with the rest here and only Buckley making the top five. The same applies for Carey Mulligan and Zoe Kazan in She Said. They could both be lead or supporting (as of now I’m going with the former in Actress and the latter in supporting).
Let’s get to it and I’ll have Best Actor up next!
TODD’S APRIL 2022 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Well, folks, I just can’t help myself. A mere two weeks after the 94th Academy Awards, I’m getting into speculation for the 95th ceremony honoring the best of 2022.
I know… it’s only April. And there’s certainly a great chance that these impossibly early predictions will look foolish a few months down the road. It’s all part of the fun though!
Here’s how it works. I’m going to do monthly forecasts for the six biggest races (Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies). For Picture, I’ll project the ten BP nominees along with 15 other possibilities. In the other races, I’ll name my five with ten other hopefuls.
Starting in August, the monthly predictions will shift to weekly ones. In October, it branches out to all feature film competitions and the list of possibilities dwindles from 25 to 15 in BP and ten in all others. Got all that? Good!
Some quick caveats – when you’re this early in the projecting game, it’s basically guesswork. For instance, I’m saying Leonardo DiCaprio will compete in Supporting Actor for Killers of the Flower Moon. It could be lead. The same logic applies to Leo’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood costar Brad Pitt for Babylon. Some movies named here will be pushed back. Some roles with familiar faces will not be the Oscar bait that seems plausible at the moment.
I’m starting with Supporting Actor and I’ll have Supporting Actress up next!
TODD’S APRIL 2022 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Of the 10 pictures released thus far in the Wizarding World franchise, all but three have managed at least one Oscar nomination. That’s a 70% ratio and, somewhat surprisingly, there’s only one victory of the 14 total nods. Even more unexpected is that the sole win doesn’t belong to any of the 8 Harry Potter flicks. That honor goes to 2016’s Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them with a Costume Design statue.
On the flip side, its sequel Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald is among the trio that received no love from the Academy. It’s also the lowest grossing feature of the series and received the worst reviews (36% on Rotten Tomatoes).
With that context, Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore opens April 15th. The review embargo is lifted and while its 62% is certainly an improvement on its predecessor, it marks the second lowest meter of the group.
So will the 11th entry attract any Oscar attention? Production Design is always a possibility as half of the pics have managed a nod in that category. I’m more skeptical that Visual Effects or Costume Design come into play. My gut says, however, this could be the fourth tale to come up empty-handed. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
It’s been an entire week since The Slap… check that, the 94th Academy Awards where CODA parlayed its Sundance buzz from January 2021 all the way to a Best Picture victory.
That also means I’ve managed to wait a whole week without speculation for the next Academy Awards which will hopefully be a slap free zone. So what are some titles that could be vying for attention?
On May 27th and after numerous delays, Top Gun: Maverick will find Tom Cruise returning to his iconic role some 36 years after the original. There’s a decent chance it could be up for similar prizes that its predecessor landed like Sound, Film Editing, and Song (courtesy of Lady Gaga apparently). Visual Effects is a possibility as well.
My weekly Oscar prediction posts won’t begin until mid to late August. In the meantime, you’ll get individualized write-ups for pics that open or screen at festivals.
Yet for today – I feel the need. The need to identify 21 other 2022 titles that might end up on the Academy’s radar. Enjoy!
Armageddon Time
Despite acclaimed movies like The Lost City of Z and Ad Astra, James Gray has yet to connect with awards voters. This drama, rumored to be centered on his Queens upbringing, is the next hopeful and features a stellar cast including Anne Hathaway, Anthony Hopkins, and Jeremy Strong. Release Date: TBD
Avatar 2
The 2009 original amassed nine nominations and won took home three. The first sequel (there’s three more on the way) arrives in December from James Cameron. Will it capture the critical and box office magic of part one? That’s impossible to know at this juncture, but one can safely assume it’ll be up for some tech categories like Sound and Visual Effects. Release Date: December 16th
Babylon
Damien Chazelle is no stranger to the big dance. Whiplash was a BP nominee and J.K. Simmons won Supporting Actor. Chazelle took Director for his follow-up La La Land along with Emma Stone’s Actress victory and it almost famously took BP. First Man nabbed four nominations, but missed the top of the line races. Babylon is a period drama focused on Hollywood’s Golden Age and should be right up the Academy’s alley. The cast includes Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie, and Tobey Maguire. Release Date: December 25th
Canterbury Glass
Robbie also turns up in David O. Russell’s latest ensemble piece. Anytime he’s behind the camera, Oscar nods typically follow (think The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle). Slated for November, the dramedy also features Christian Bale, John David Washington, Rami Malek, Zoe Saldana, Robert De Niro, Mike Myers, and… Chris Rock. Release Date: November 4th
Elvis
Arriving in June but with a Cannes unveiling in May, Baz Luhrmann’s musical bio of The King stars Austin Butler in the title role and Tom Hanks as The Colonel. If this doesn’t contend for the major awards, I would still anticipate potential tech recognition (Production Design, Sound, etc…). Release Date: June 24th
Empire of Light
Sam Mendes was likely in the runner-up position in 2019 for Picture and Director (behind Parasite) with 1917. His follow-up is an English set romance starring Olivia Colman (who would be going for her fourth nomination in five years), Michael Ward, and Colin Firth. Release Date: TBD
Everything Everywhere All at Once
From two filmmakers known collectively as Daniels, Once is already out in limited release with spectacular reviews (97% on RT). The sci-fi action comedy might be too bizarre for the Academy, but I wouldn’t count it out as its admirers are vocal. Picture, Director, Actress (Michelle Yeoh), and Original Screenplay are all on the table. Release Date: out in limited release, opens wide April 8th
The Fabelmans
Steven Spielberg directs a semi-autobiographical tale and cowrites with his Lincoln and West Side Story scribe Tony Kushner. The cast includes Michelle Williams, Seth Rogen, and Paul Dano. Needless to say, this is a major contender on paper. Release Date: November 23rd
Killers of the Flower Moon
Alongside The Fabelmans, this might be the most obvious nominee from a personnel standpoint. Martin Scorsese helms this western crime drama featuring Jesse Plemons, Lily Gladstone, and his two frequent collaborators Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro. Apple TV just became the first streamer to get a BP victory with CODA. This could be the second in a row. Release Date: November
Poor Things
In 2018, The Favourite scored a whopping ten nominations. Based on an acclaimed 1992 novel, Poor Things is Yorgos Lanthimos’s follow-up and it reunites him with Emma Stone along with Willem Dafoe, Ramy Youssef, and Mark Ruffalo. The plot sounds bizarre but it could also be an Oscar bait role for Stone and others. Release Date: TBD
Rustin
One of Netflix’s contenders is George C. Wolfe’s profile of gay civil rights activist Bayard Rustin (played by Colman Domingo). In 2020, Wolfe directed Viola Davis and Chadwick Boseman to nods for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Look for Domingo to be a competitor and the supporting cast includes Chris Rock (maybe he will be back at the show), Glynn Turman, and Audra McDonald. Release Date: TBD
See How They Run
The 1950s set murder mystery could provide 27-year-old Saoirse Ronan with an opportunity to land her fifth nomination. Sam Rockwell, David Oyelowo, Adrien Brody, and Ruth Wilson are among the supporting players. Tom George directs. Release Date: TBD
She Said
Five years after the scandal rocked Hollywood, She Said from Maria Schrader recounts the New York Times sexual misconduct investigation into Harvey Weinstein. Zoe Kazan, Carey Mulligan, and Patricia Clarkson lead the cast. Release Date: November 18th
The Son
Florian Zeller won Best Adapted Screenplay in 2020 for The Father along with Anthony Hopkins taking Best Actor. This follow-up (based on the director’s play) finds Hopkins reprising his Oscar-winning part in supporting fashion. Other cast members seeking awards attention include Hugh Jackman, Laura Dern, and Vanessa Kirby. Release Date: TBD
TAR
It’s been a while since we’ve seen Todd Field behind the camera. Previous efforts In the Bedroom and Little Children received 8 nominations between them. A decade and a half following Children comes this Berlin set drama with Cate Blanchett, Noemie Merlant, and Mark Strong. Release Date: October 7th
Three Thousand Years of Longing
Scheduled for a Cannes bow in May, Longing is a fantasy romance from the legendary mind of George Miller (who last made Mad Max: Fury Road which won six tech Oscars). Idris Elba and Tilda Swinton star. Release Date: TBD
The Whale
Darren Aronofsky directed Mickey Rourke to a comeback narrative nod for 2008’s The Wrestler. Two years later, his follow-up Black Swan earned Natalie Portman a statue. Brendan Fraser is hoping for the same treatment with The Whale as he plays a 600 pound man attempting to reconnect with his daughter. Costars include Sadie Sink, Hong Chau, and Samantha Morton. I’d expect Makeup and Hairstyling could also be in play with this. Release Date: TBD
White Noise
Not a remake of the Michael Keaton supernatural thriller from 2005, this is Noah Baumbach’s follow-up to Marriage Story. Based on a 1985 novel, it’s the filmmaker’s first picture based on other source material. Marriage landed three acting nods (with Laura Dern winning Supporting Actress). The cast here includes frequent Baumbach collaborator Adam Driver, real-life partner Greta Gerwig, Raffey Cassidy, Andre Benjamin, Alessandro Nivola, and Don Cheadle. This could be Netflix’s strongest contender. Release Date: TBD
The Woman King
Expect this West Afrian set historical epic from Gina Prince-Bythewood to be heavily touted by Sony with awards bait roles for leads Viola Davis and Thuso Mbedu. The supporting cast includes John Boyega and Lashana Lynch. Release Date: September 16th
Women Talking
Based on a 2018 novel, Sarah Polley writes and directs this drama focused on eight Mennonite women and their story of abuse. The sterling cast includes Frances McDormand, Jessie Buckley, Ben Whishaw, Claire Foy, and Rooney Mara. Release Date: TBD
And that’s just a small preview of the features that could materialize for the 95th Academy Awards! As always, the speculation on this site will continue throughout the year and into the next. Stay tuned…
At last weekend’s Oscars, Nicole Kidman and Javier Bardem were both nominated as Lucy (as in Lucille Ball) and Desi (as in Arnaz) for Being the Ricardos. We could see the couple/sitcom stars represented at next year’s ceremony in documentary form.
Lucy and Desi premiered at the Sundance Film Festival in January and is now available for streaming on Amazon Prime. It was directed by another famed TV comedienne – Amy Poehler. Reviews stand at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Docs about notable entertainment subjects often fail to garner the attention of Academy voters. Recent omissions from the five nominees in the race include Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (Mister Rogers) and Julia (2021’s feature about Julia Child). Despite the pleasing critical reaction, I suspect Lucy and Desi could suffer the same fate. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Jared Leto has an Oscar for his supporting work in 2013’s Dallas Buyers Club. That film won another trophy for Makeup and Hairstyling. Three years later, Leto’s turn as The Joker in Suicide Squad contributed to a victory in that same category. Last weekend, House of Gucci (featuring a much ballyhooed turn from Leto) lost the Makeup derby to The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Why am I bringing this up?
Well, it’s an excuse for Morbius and Oscar to appear as words together in a post. The Sony/Marvel production (which casts Leto as the vampire antihero) is finally making its way to theaters on Friday after numerous COVID delays. There’s been rumors that it’s not of the highest quality and the lapsed review embargo seems to prove that. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is a mere 19% at time of publication.
That said, some of this genre fare can still materialize in Visual Effects or Makeup and Hairstyling (like Suicide Squad). I would say Morbius has a better chance at multiple Razzie nominations than any from the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Utilizing similar rotoscoping technology as his earlier animated efforts Waking Life and A Scanner Darkly, Richard Linklater’s Apollo 10 1/2: A Space Age Childhood hits Netflix on Friday after its South by Southwest premiere a couple of weeks back. A coming-of-age tale set during the 1969 Moon landing, early reviews have mostly soared with a 91% Rotten Tomatoes launch.
Linklater is no stranger to the Oscars. He nabbed screenplay nods for Before Sunset and Before Midnight. 2014’s Boyhood was nominated for six categories. Since that effort seven years ago, his follow-ups (Everybody Wants Some!!, Last Flag Flying, Where’d You Go, Bernadette) have all failed to reach the Academy’s radar.
Apollo could change that trajectory with an Animated Feature mention. The critical reaction is strong enough, but let’s see what else lands in the remaining nine months. It’s entirely possible that two of the five eventual contenders (Turning Red and this) are already available for streaming pleasure as of this weekend. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
In February 2020, Sonic the Hedgehog (based on the popular Sega video game) was one of the last massive box office success stories before COVID shuttered theaters for months. Come Oscar time for the 93rd Academy Awards, one of the surprising omissions was Sonic being left off the shortlist for Best Visual Effects. After all, many of the tentpole projects for 2020 were pushed to 2021 or beyond (including Dune which won last weekend). Instead there were unexpected nominees such as Love and Monsters and The One and Only Ivan.
The new franchise will have another bite at the apple in 2022 with Sonic the Hedgehog 2, opening April 8th. Reviews are decent at 69% on Rotten Tomatoes (a bit stronger than the original’s 63%). Yet if part 1 couldn’t manage to break into VE in a weaker year, I wouldn’t anticipate the sequel making the cut this time around. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The pranksters of the Internet had a little fun with the justly criticized decision to have a “Fan Favorite” award. The top 3 consisted of Netflix’s Army of the Dead, the reviled Cinderella remake, and Johnny Depp’s barely seen Minamata. I’m guessing this viewer’s choice designation experiment will be unique to the 94th Academy Awards and this ceremony only. Gotta love footnotes, eh?
Let’s talk about what else happened at the Oscars. No… not that. Not yet.
I went 17 for 20, but I missed the biggie. CODA took Best Picture over The Power of the Dog. In fact, the Apple TV pic went 3 for 3 as it also won Adapted Screenplay (I picked Dog) and Troy Kotsur for Supporting Actor.
I admittedly had an upset selection with “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto over “No Time to Die” from that Bond pic. Billie Eilish did indeed take the musical prize and it’s now the third 007 theme in a row to win after “Skyfall” (2012) and “Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre (2015).
The other 16 categories went according to my prognostications… Will Smith as Best Actor for King Richard… NOT YET…
Jessica Chastain (Best Actress for The Eyes of Tammy Faye) and Ariana DeBose (Supporting Actor for West Side Story). Belfast for Original Screenplay. Encanto in Animated Feature and Drive My Car for International Feature Film and Summer of Soul as Documentary Feature. You can read the rest. Dune won the most trophies with six.
The Power of the Dog took just one award with Jane Campion taking Director and becoming the third woman to do so and second in a row. It marks the first time since 1967 that director’s win for the movie marks its sole victory. For you trivia buffs… it was Mike Nichols for The Graduate.
OK… let’s get real. All of what I’m writing about is a footnote. That’s because Will Smith’s open hand slap of Chris Rock for a joke directed at wife Jada Pinkett Smith is all the 94th edition of the Oscars will be remembered for. It was shocking (and riveting) TV made even more so with the knowledge that Smith would be giving a speech moments later. I still don’t know what to think and I’m still a little aghast at what I saw. That whole reading the wrong winner from five years ago seems a little small potatoes now.
I do know this… my Oscar predictions and speculations for the 95th Academy Awards will be here before you know it.
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