The film festival season always gives us plenty of Best Picture contenders and potential recipients for the acting categories and elsewhere. There’s also those movies that debut and completely eliminate themselves from contention due to poor reviews. At Toronto, that definitely appears to be the case with Dan Fogelman’s LifeItself (not to be confused with the terrific documentary about Roger Ebert).
Fogelman is most known for creating the hit NBC tearjerker series “This Is Us”. For his second feature film (after the barely noticed Al Pacino led DannyCollins), he’s assembled a cast including Oscar Isaac, Antonio Banderas, Annette Bening, Olivia Wilde, Mandy Patinkin, Olivia Cooke, and Samuel L. Jackson.
Simply put, critical reaction here has been bad, saying it’s manipulative and corny. Bottom line: LifeItself has taken itself out of any awards talk.
The film opens September 21. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Five Oscars ago, Steve McQueen’s 12YearsaSlave took home Best Picture and it’s been five years for his follow-up to debut. That picture is Widows, a heist drama based on a 1983 British miniseries and it’s premiered at the Toronto Film Festival.
Reviews for the film are encouraging, but I’m not too sure they’re strong enough for a realistic shot at Best Picture, Director, or Adapted Screenplay (by the director and GoneGirl writer Gillian Flynn) nods.
As for the actors involved, that could be a different story. An impressive supporting cast includes Michelle Rodriguez, Colin Farrell, Jacki Weaver, Robert Duvall, and Liam Neeson. Most of the ink, however, has been reserved for its star Viola Davis. She won Supporting Actress just two years back for Fences. It appears she could factor into the lead Actress race this time around, though competition could be steep. If there’s anything chance at supporting players being recognized, both Daniel Kaluuya (nominated for last year’s GetOut) and Elizabeth Debicki have been singled out in some reviews.
Bottom line: Widows is doubtful for Best Picture, but Davis and maybe a supporting performance or two could be in the mix.
The film opens domestically on November 16. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
The Toronto Film Festival has screened a second high-profile drama centered on drug addiction following the mixed reaction of BeautifulBoy. That would be BenIsBack, the latest effort from director Peter Hedges. It stars Julia Roberts and the filmmaker’s son Lucas Hedges and early reviews indicate it could garner Oscar talk.
Critical buzz is strong, especially for Roberts. The chance of the actress earning a fifth Academy Award nod has increased. She won eighteen years ago for ErinBrockovich, in addition to nominations in Supporting Actress for SteelMagnolias (1989) and August: OsageCounty (2013) and lead for PrettyWoman (1990). A Best Actor nod for Hedges is more of a question mark. There is the possibility he could cancel himself out by also receiving votes in BoyErased.
Beyond the actors involved, Ben could also contend in Original Screenplay (which director Hedges wrote).
Bottom line: BenIsBack announced itself as a contender in Canada.
The film opens December 7 domestically. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
The Venice Film Festival has wrapped up its business with awards bestowed. Alfonso Cuaron’s autobiographical Mexico set drama Roma is the winner of the fest’s version of Best Picture – the Golden Lion.
This comes as no surprise. Roma has received rapturous reviews and it seems destined to compete at the Oscars in Best Picture and not just the Foreign Language race. It’s worth noting that last year’s Golden Lion recipient, Guillermo del Toro’s TheShapeofWater, went on to Oscar glory.
The Silver Lion Grand Jury Prize (basically runner-up) went to the Yorgos Lanthimos pic TheFavourite, which has also achieved the status of a likely contender come Oscar time. Olivia Colman took the Best Actress trophy for her work in it. And Willem Dafoe is Best Actor as Vincent Van Gogh in AtEternity’sGate. Both performers appear primed to hear their names mentioned in the Academy’s nominees for their respective lead races.
If there was a surprise, it’s the Coen Brothers winning Best Screenplay for their Western anthology TheBalladofBusterScruggs over Roma or TheFavourite. While critical reaction appeared somewhat mixed, one wonders if this could still have enough admirers to be a player in future awards mixes.
All in all, Roma and TheFavourite have solidified their place as true Oscar hopefuls.
Nineteen year old actress Amandla Stenberg is most known for her work as Rue in the original HungerGames and the 2017 romance Everything, Everything (she also headlined this summer’s box office flop TheDarkestMinds). The Toronto Film Festival has screened TheHateUGive, George Tillman Jr.’s crime drama where Stenberg’s character witnesses the shooting of her childhood best friend.
Early reviews suggest it could be a breakout role for the performer. The supporting cast includes Regina Hall, Common, and Anthony Mackie. The pic is based on last year’s YA novel by Angie Thomas. Tillman Jr. has seen many of his pics achieve financial success, such as SoulFood, Barbershop and Notorious. Awards recognition has alluded him.
Bottom line: TheHateUGive will need to get noticed by audiences in order for that recognition to have any chance. While reviews are strong, I’d say Oscar nods are a long shot and that includes Stenberg.
The film is slated for release on October 19. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
BeautifulBoy is one of the more anticipated premieres out of the Toronto Film Festival. The true life tale of a father (Steve Carell) and his drug addicted son (Timothee Chalamet), the film marks the English language debut of Belgian director Felix Van Groeningen.
Early reviews from up north are mixed. While it’s not out of the running for a Best Picture slot, it appears its chances have markedly decreased. This doesn’t hold true for the two leads, whose performances have been praised. It’s not entirely certain which categories they will be placed in, but Carell in lead Actor and Chalamet in Supporting Actor seems most probable. At this juncture, the latter race seems wide open. Chalamet was nominated just last year for his work in CallMebyYourName. Carell earned a nod in 2014 for Foxcatcher.
As for other races, both Maura Tierney and Amy Ryan could contend for Supporting Actress, but the male leads are getting the bulk of the ink.
Bottom line: Chalamet could be a shoo-in nominee if he’s campaigned for in Supporting Actress, with lead Actor recognition for Carell less certain.
BeautifulBoy opens October 12. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
One of the year’s most awaited documentaries has premiered at the Toronto Film Festival in the form of Fahrenheit 11/9, the latest from Michael Moore. The film’s title, of course, slightly changes the numerical composition of the filmmaker’s biggest grosser Fahrenheit 9/11 from 2004.
Early critical reaction is out and it’s no surprise that many from the festival are praising Moore’s critical look at the current administration. The pic is also said to be equal parts a take down of the response to the Flint, Michigan water crisis. Some reviews have remarked that 11/9 (the date of President Trump’s election in 2016) isn’t quite as focused as his most acclaimed works.
Moore is no stranger to the Oscars. 2002’s Bowling for Columbine won the award for Best Documentary Feature and 2007’s Sicko was nominated. However, Fahrenheit 9/11 was not.
2018 has already seen at least three docs released that seem to be strong contenders for recognition in the doc race: RBG, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, and Three Identical Strangers. Academy voters may want to nominate 11/9 due to its political relevance, but I’m not sure at this point there will be room for it.
Bottom line: While Moore’s latest stands a chance at a nod, it’s no guarantee in a crowded field.
Fahrenheit 11/9 opens domestically on September 21. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
The historical action drama OutlawKing might not immediately strike one as an Oscar hopeful. Yet it’s considered a bit of a thematic sequel to Braveheart, the Mel Gibson epic that also focused on the Scottish battle for independence. That film won Best Picture in 1995. This is also director David Mackenzie’s follow-up to HellorHighWater, which earned a Best Picture nod two years ago. And it was selected to open the Toronto Film Festival, which has kicked off today.
Even with that considerable pedigree, critical reaction suggests this won’t be a major player on the Oscar scene. Mackenzie reunites with Hell star Chris Pine with a supporting cast including Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Florence Pugh, and Stephen Dillane. Early reviews haven’t been too kind thus far, though they have praised its epic scope. Perhaps some down the line tech recognition is possible, but even that could be a reach.
Bottom line: don’t expect Academy voters to crown King with love.
The pic is slated to debut on Netflix on November 9. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
What a difference a week makes! Last Thursday, I gave you my first initial predictions in the major categories for the Oscars. Since then – we’ve seen a slew of pictures screened at the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals.
Films like A Star Is Born, Roma, First Man, and The Favourite solidified their status as contenders. Others like Boy Erased and The Front Runner availed themselves as possibilities, but not slam dunks. Others like Destroyer and The Old Man & The Gun likely took themselves out of the running in Best Picture, but shined a light on their actors that could receive nods.
And here’s the thing… by the time I do my third round of predictions next Thursday, we will have lots more pictures screened at the Toronto Film Festival, which begins today. That includes such high-profile titles as If Beale Street Could Talk, Beautiful Boy, Widows, and more.
Here’s how I have the key races ranked by possibility of nomination at this point in time!
Best Picture
1. If Beale Street Could Talk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Roma (PR: 4)
4. First Man (PR: 5)
5. Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)
6. The Favourite (PR: 13)
7. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
8. Boy Erased (PR: 7)
9. Backseat (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. The Front Runner (PR: 14)
11. Black Panther (PR: 12)
12. Peterloo (PR: 9)
13. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)
14. Widows (PR: 11)
15. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 16)
16. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 17)
17. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 22)
18. Green Book (PR: 21)
19. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 24)
20. Cold War (PR: Not Ranked)
21. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 23)
22. July 22 (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 19)
24. The Sisters Brothers (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
The Old Man & The Gun
Destroyer
Ben Is Back
Best Director
1. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 2)
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 4)
5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 11)
7. Felix Van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy (PR: 6)
8. Adam McKay, Backseat (PR: 7)
9. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 8)
10. Jason Reitman, The Front Runner (PR: 14)
11. Mike Leigh, Peterloo (PR: 9)
12. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 13)
14. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)
15. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 3)
3. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 2)
4. Christian Bale, Backseat (PR: 6)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 4)
7. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 5)
8. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 7)
9. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)
10. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 13)
11. Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 10)
12. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 12)
13. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here (PR: 14)
14. John C. Reilly, The Sisters Brothers (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Rory Kinnear, Peterloo
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 2)
3. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 6)
4. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 9)
5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)
7. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 7)
8. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 3)
9. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
11. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)
12. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 15)
13. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)
14. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: 13)
15. Joanna Kulig, Cold War
Dropped Out:
Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Best Supporting Actor
1. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 1)
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
3. Sam Rockwell, Backseat (PR: 3)
4. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
5. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Oscar Isaac, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)
7. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 9)
10. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 13)
11. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 5)
12. Jason Clarke, First Man (PR: 11)
13. David Tennant, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)
14. Matthew McConaughey, White Boy Rick (PR: Not Ranked)
15. J.K. Simmons, The Front Runner (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sebastian Stan, Destroyer
Topher Grace, BlacKkKlansman
Best Supporting Actress
1. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 3)
2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Backseat (PR: 5)
4. Vera Farmiga, The Front Runner (PR: 10)
5. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maura Tierney, Beautiful Boy (PR: 6)
7. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
9. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 12)
10. Amy Ryan, Beautiful Boy (PR: 7)
11. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 11)
12. Meryl Streep, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
13. Blythe Danner, What They Had (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)
15. Rachel McAdams, Disobedience (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Tatiana Maslany, Destroyer
Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Beautiful Boy (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 4)
4. Boy Erased (PR: 3)
5. First Man (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
7. The Front Runner (PR: 8)
8. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
9. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 7)
10. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)
11. Disobedience (PR: 13)
12. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 15)
13. Widows (PR: 12)
14. Wildlife (PR: 14)
15. The Miseducation of Cameron Post (PR: Not Ranked)
In addition to the Bourne franchise, director Paul Greengrass is best known for making thrillers based on well-known events. This includes Bloody Sunday, United 93 (for which he received a Best Director nomination), and Captain Phillips (which nabbed a Best Picture nod). His latest is July 22 and it focuses on the 2011 Norwegian terrorist attacks.
The film has debuted at the Venice Film Festival and reviews out today are solid. However, I’m not sure the critical reaction is strong enough for Greengrass or his picture to receive Academy acknowledgment. I’m also not seeing any technical nominations at this juncture. It also may not help that the production is scheduled to debut on Netflix and the voters still may not be overly enthusiastic about recognizing the subscription service.
Bottom line: Barring a greater amount of festival love, don’t expect this to achieve the level of attention that previous Greengrass movies United 93 and Captain Phillips got.
July 22 is out on Netflix on October 10. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
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