Remaking Hitchcock is always a tricky proposition, but Ben Wheatley is venturing into that territory with the October 21st Netflix release of Rebecca. The 1940 version from the Master of Suspense is the only film in the legend’s filmography to win Best Picture at the Oscars (though it did not land Hitchcock a directing victory). Armie Hammer, Lily James, Kristin Scott Thomas, Sam Riley, and Ann Dowd headline this iteration.
The original source material is actually the 1938 Daphne du Maurier novel and some reviews are saying this 2020 take is actually more faithful than Hitch’s adaptation. Yet it’s getting nowhere close to the raves of what preceded it 80 years ago. The Rotten Tomatoes score stands at a mixed 54%.
In 1940, the trio of Laurence Olivier, Joan Fontaine, and Judith Anderson were all nominated by the Academy. These would be the roles played now by Hammer, James, and Scott Thomas. While some critics have focused on the work of the latter, I find it doubtful that Scott Thomas could nab her second nomination (her first was 1996’s The English Patient).
Even with the so-so reviews, Rebecca could still get some nods. The Production Design and Costume Design have both been singled out. In my weekly Oscar prediction updates, I had this just on the outside looking in at 6th in the costuming race and I have this making the cut in fifth in Production Design. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
The weekly Oscar predictions keep coming as developments from the past 7 days have altered a couple of key races. Most prominent is Best Actress, a potentially crowded field that saw the debut of French Exit with Michelle Pfeiffer. The pic debuted to mixed reviews though critics did praise her work. That said, she moves out of the top 5 and so does Kate Winslet in Ammonite. The two new performers joining the final five: Amy Adams in Hillbilly Elegy and Jennifer Hudson in Respect.
Speaking of Elegy, the Netflix drama debuted its first trailer this week. Reaction was mixed, but it looks to me that Glenn Close especially solidified her status as a front runner in Supporting Actress.
In Best Actor, there’s movement as well since Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal seems to be gaining steam. He moves into the top five with Tom Hanks in News of the World dropping out. And there’s changes in Supporting Actor where we’re still waiting for category placement to be determined. I moved Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami) back to Supporting and he knocks out Yahya Abdul-Mateen II from The Trial of the Chicago 7.
Lastly, Pixar’s Soul had its review embargo lifted prior to its Christmas streaming release. Feedback is very solid with some critics proclaiming it’s in the upper echelon on the studio’s work. It could become the fourth animated feature to get a Best Picture nod. For now, I’m saying it’s definitely the heavy favorite to win Animated Feature but it could miss the cut in the biggest race of all.
And with that, the updates are below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
7. The Father (PR: 7)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
9. Minari (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)
11. Soul (PR: 10)
12. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 12)
13. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Respect (PR: 14)
15. Ammonite (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
The White Tiger
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
9. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 9)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7)
5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 4)
7. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)
8. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
9. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)
10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 9)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
2. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 2)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)
5. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: Not Ranked)
10. George Clooney, The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (moved to Supporting Actor)
Matt Damon, Stillwater
Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 5)
4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)
7. Mary J. Blige, Respect (PR: 10)
8. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 7)
9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Swankie, Nomadland (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lily Collins, Mank
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 7)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 6)
8. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
9. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
10. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Tom Pelphrey, Mank
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Soul (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
7. On the Rocks (PR: 7)
8. Respect (PR: 9)
9. Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Stillwater
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 9)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
9. First Cow (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Next Goal Wins (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
French Exit
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Connected (PR: 7)
7. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
8. Trolls World Tour (PR: 9)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: 8)
10. Calamity, a Childhood of Martha Jane (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Earwig and the Witch
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Crip Camp (PR: 1)
2. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 2)
3. Totally Under Control (PR: 7)
4. The Dissident (PR: 5)
5. Boys State (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)
7. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 6)
8. 76 Days (PR: 8)
9. MLK/FBI (PR: 9)
10. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Notturno
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
2. Another Round (PR: 2)
3. New Order (PR: 3)
4. Night of the Kings (PR: 4)
5. The Disciple (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wife of a Spy (PR: 7)
7. Atlantis (PR: 9)
8. Ema (PR: Not Ranked)
9. My Little Sister (PR: 6)
10. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
A Sun
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
8. Tenet (PR: 6)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Coming 2 America (PR: 8)
5. Mulan (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rebecca (PR: Not Ranked)
7. News of the World (PR: 4)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)
10. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Death on the Nile
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 7)
5. News of the World (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
10. Tenet (PR: 10)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Birds of Prey (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 3)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
4. Coming 2 America (PR: 5)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 4)
7. Respect (PR: 6)
8. Emma (PR: 9)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 2)
2. News of the World (PR: 3)
3. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
4. Mank (PR: 1)
5. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
9. Tenet (PR: 9)
10. Over the Moon (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Minari
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 2)
3. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 3)
4. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 4)
5. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)
8. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 8)
10. “Carried Me with You” from Onward (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
“Seen” from The Life Ahead
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 2)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. Rebecca (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
7. Ammonite (PR: 8)
8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Judas and and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
10. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Death on the Nile
The Midnight Sky
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 3)
3. Soul (PR: 2)
4. Greyhound (PR: 6)
5. Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
7. Mank (PR: 4)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
9. Respect (PR: 9)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Greyhound (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 6)
7. Birds of Prey (PR: 8)
8. The Call of the Wild (PR: 7)
9. Dolittle (PR: 10)
10. The Old Guard (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Free Guy
And that means I am estimating the following movies end up with these numbers:
11 Nominations
Mank
9 Nominations
News of the World
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
Nomadland, One Night in Miami
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Father
4 Nominations
Soul
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan
2 Nominations
Ammonite, Coming 2 America, Greyhound, Minari, Over the Moon, Sound of Metal, Tenet
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Birds of Prey, Boys State, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Disciple, The Dissident, Emma, Giving Voice, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, New Order, Night of the Kings, The One and Only Ivan, Onward, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Rebecca, Respect, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
Streaming on Amazon Prime since September, the political doc All In: The Fight for Democracy is establishing itself as a real contender in awards season. Directed by Liz Garbus and Lisa Cortes, the pic focuses on voter suppression and features Georgia’s recent gubernatorial race with Stacey Abrams (who shares a producer credit).
Democracy has a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes and co-director Garbus is no stranger to Academy attention. She’s been nominated twice for 1998’s The Farm: Angola, USA and 2015’s What Happened, Miss Simone? In this heightened electoral climate, this could easily make the final cut in the Documentary Feature race and I currently have it listed in fourth for possibilities. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Disney/Pixar’s second 2020 release Soul has long been seen as their most viable Oscar contender over this spring’s Onward. Today’s buzz after it held the first screening at the London Film Festival confirms that. The jazz infused tale from Pete Docter and Kemp Powers is being called two familiar adjectives in the studio’s lexicon – heartfelt and crowd pleasing. Soul, after experiencing delays due to the COVID pandemic, is slated for a Disney+ debut on Christmas Day.
Featuring the voices of Jamie Foxx, Tina Fey, Questlove, Phylicia Rashad, Daveed Diggs, and Angela Bassett, several reviews are already claiming it’s in the upper echelon of Pixar pics. Docter is no stranger to Academy love. All three of his directorial efforts – Monsters Inc., Up, Inside Out – were nominated for Best Animated Feature. The latter two emerged victorious and Up is one of three animated flicks to achieve a Best Picture nomination.
The question is not whether Soul will make the final cut in Animated Feature. It absolutely will and it’s absolutely the strong front runner to win. A better debate is whether this is the fourth animated effort to contend for the big prize. I don’t believe that’s automatic. Inside Out also garnered sterling critical reaction in 2015 and fell short of that achievement. However, Soul has solidified its position as a legit hopeful.
Additionally, expect Best Sound and the Original Score by Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross to be in the mix. Bottom line: Soul helped it cause to play beyond Animated Feature. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
French Exit closed the New York Film Festival last night ahead of its planned February 2021 debut and that keeps it in line for awards consideration in this altered Oscar season. The eccentric comedy from Azazel Jacobs is based on the 2018 novel by Patrick deWitt, who adapts his own work (he’s also responsible for the source material for 2018’s The Sisters Brothers).
To say Exit is experiencing mixed reviews and social media reaction is an understatement. The focus of most Academy chatter is whether or not Michelle Pfeiffer will land her fourth nomination and her first in nearly 30 years. The star garnered nods for 1988’s Dangerous Liaisons for Supporting Actress and lead for 1989’s The Fabulous Baker Boys and 1992’s Love Field.
First things first: the wildly divergent critical notices probably keep this out of contention for anything and anyone other than Pfeiffer. That leaves her costars Lucas Hedges, Tracy Letts, Danielle Macdonald, and Imogen Poots out of the conversation. Yet even some of the negative reviews point to sterling work from Pfeiffer as a down on her luck socialite widow who relocates to Paris. Variety called it the “role she’ll be remembered for” in a likely bit of hyperbole. Several other publications were far less kind, but kinder to its lead.
Best Actress currently looks more crowded than Best Actor. Already screened performances like Frances McDormand in Nomadland and Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman appear headed for the final five (with McDormand as a near shoo-in). There are major hopefuls waiting in the wings including Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy), and Jennifer Hudson (Respect) among others.
I have had Pfeiffer listed in fifth place for some time in my weekly estimates (ahead of Adams and Hudson). Whether that changes with my update on Thursday is something I’ll need to ponder. I believe she could absolutely still make the cut, but I don’t think this weekend’s showing guarantees her a spot. Some soft reviews could be a detriment, but that didn’t prevent Renee Zellweger from taking gold last year as Judy. Bottom line: Pfeiffer may need to play the waiting game as the verdict comes down for other possible nominees. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
After it debuted at the Sundance Film Festival to a Dramatic Competition Directing prize, Radha Blank’s The Forty-Year-Old Version is available on Netflix this weekend. A humorous take on the director/writer/star’s real life experiences, her first feature is being hailed in critical circles with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 99%.
Its title emanating from the 2005 Steve Carell breakthrough The 40-Year-Old Virgin, the pic is certainly generating some buzz now that it’s available for mass consumption. However, I’m not confident that will translate to Oscar voters. Netflix has a mighty full plate of contenders to campaign for and this could fall under the radar. As I see it, Version‘s sole chance for recognition lies in its Original Screenplay. Unless critics groups give it momentum in the months ahead, that’s probably a stretch. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Glen Keane is a bit of a Disney legend having served as a character animator for classic titles including The Little Mermaid, Beauty and the Beast, and Aladdin. He’s also no stranger to Academy attention. Three years ago, he won an Oscar alongside collaborator Kobe Bryant for the short film Dear Basketball. On October 23, Netflix debuts his feature length directorial debut Over the Moon. The computer drawn musical features the voices of Phillipa Soo, Ken Jeong, John Cho, and Sandra Oh.
Early reviews are pretty encouraging. That said, Keane’s most notable competition comes from his former employer. Disney/Pixar’s Soul (which just announced a Disney+ streaming bow on Christmas Day) is rumored to be special and it’s been the strong front runner for Animated Feature for some time. That hasn’t changed and the real question is what’s the current runner-up.
Over the Moon could be it, but I’m beginning to believe Wolfwalkers might be in second position based on its fantastic critical reaction. Bottom line: expect Moon to be in the final five for animated fare. A win is far less likely. Also look for its Original Song titled “Rocket to the Moon” to get some attention in that category. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
As much as I want to predict Mel Gibson’s Santa Claus revenge tale Fatman in all categories based on its bonkers trailer, I shall refrain. However, there is more news to be discussed in my latest round of Oscar predictions.
Speaking of trailers, we got our first looks at two major contenders this week: David Fincher’s Mank (still holding in 1st place in Picture and Director and more) and News of the World from Paul Greengrass (with an impressive 10 predictions). Mank, by the way, leads all contenders with 12 and that takes over last week’s leader The Trial of the Chicago 7.
We also learned that Dune and No Time to Die have officially moved out of contention due to release date changes. I had Dune down for 8 nominations last week. I also listed the theme song from No Time to Die (performed by Billie Eilish) in first place for Original Song. These drops are reflected below.
Other developments:
Picture, Director, Actor, and Actress remain unchanged. I will note that French Exit will screen this weekend for critics and we will have a better idea as to Michelle Pfeiffer’s viability and if it could be a contender in other categories.
While Supporting Actor stays intact, I have moved Amanda Seyfried’s work in Mank in the Supporting Actress five over Ellen Burstyn in Pieces of a Woman.
With that, let’s get to the latest guesstimates!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
7. The Father (PR: 7)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
9. Minari (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Soul (PR: 10)
11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)
12. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 13)
13. Ammonite (PR: 14)
14. Respect (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The White Tiger (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Dune
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
9. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 8)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)
4. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 4)
5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7)
8. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
9. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 10)
10. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
2. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 2)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
5. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
9. Matt Damon, Stillwater (PR: 9)
10. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 3)
4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
5. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
7. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 7)
8. Lily Collins, Mank (PR: 8)
9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Mary J. Blige, Respect (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Abigail Breslin, Stillwater
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
4. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
5. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 6)
7. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 10)
8. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
9. Tom Pelphrey, Mank (PR: 8)
10. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 5)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
5. Soul (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
7. On the Rocks (PR: 6)
8. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Respect (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Stillwater (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Ammonite
C’Mon C’Mon
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
8. French Exit (PR: 10)
9. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 9)
10. Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Over the Moon (PR: 2)
3. Wolfwalkers (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Predicted Nominees:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. Connected (PR: 7)
8. Bombay Rose (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Trolls World Tour (PR: 9)
10. Earwig and the Witch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rumble
Ride Your Wave
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Crip Camp (PR: 1)
2. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 4)
3. Boys State (PR: 2)
4. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 3)
5. The Dissident (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)
7. Totally Under Control (PR: Not Ranked)
8. 76 Days (PR: Not Ranked)
9. MLK/FBI (PR: 7)
10. Notturno (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spaceship Earth
John Lewis: Good Trouble
Miss Americana
On the Record
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
2. Another Round (PR: 6)
3. New Order (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
5. The Disciple (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
6. My Little Sister (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Wife of a Spy (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Atlantis (PR: 5)
10. A Sun (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Ema
The Life Ahead
Young Ahmed
Memory House
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 10)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
8. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune
Ammonite
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Mulan (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
7. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 10)
8. Coming 2 America (PR: 6)
9. Death on the Nile (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ammonite (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Dune
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 4)
4. News of the World (PR: 3)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
7. The Father (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)
10. Tenet (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Dune
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)
3. Mank (PR: 1)
4. Mulan (PR: 5)
5. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Respect (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
9. Emma (PR: 8)
10, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune
No Time to Die
Wonder Woman 1984
Ammonite
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Soul (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 6)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
7. Over the Moon (PR: 9)
8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
9. Tenet (PR: 10)
10. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
2. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 7)
3. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: Not Ranked)
4. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 9)
5. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 3)
8. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 6)
9. “Carried Me with You” from Onward (PR: 8)
10. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
“See What You’ve Done” from Belly of the Beast
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 3)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
7. Rebecca (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Ammonite (PR: 6)
9. Death on the Nile (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune
One Night in Miami
Tenet
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. Soul (PR: 3)
3. News of the World (PR: 7)
4. Mank (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Sound of Metal (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greyhound (PR: Not Ranked)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Respect (PR: 5)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune
The Invisible Man
No Time to Die
Wonder Woman 1984
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 2)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
3. Greyhound (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 6)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: Not Ranked)
7. The Call of the Wild (PR: 7)
8. Birds of Prey (PR: 10)
9. Free Guy (PR: 9)
10. Dolittle (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune
Wonder Woman 1984
No Time to Die
That equates to the following numbers of nominations for features:
12 Nominations
Mank
10 Nominations
News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
6 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Nomadland, One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
The Father, Mulan, Soul
2 Nominations
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Ammonite, Minari, Over the Moon, Tenet
1 Nomination
Birds of Prey, Boys State, Coming 2 America, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Disciple, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, Giving Voice, Greyhound, Hillbilly Elegy, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, New Order, Night of the Kings, The One and Only Ivan, Onward, Pieces of a Woman, Sound of Metal, Wolfwalkers
After a warm reception earlier this year at the Sundance Film Festival, Kirsten Johnson’s documentary Dick Johnson Is Dead is having its streaming premiere on Netflix today. The director is the daughter of the title subject – a psychiatrist who receives a dementia diagnosis. She also made the well regarded 2016 doc Cameraperson. The picture is said to deal humorously and unconventionally with its subject matter. It received a Special Jury award at Sundance and stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes.
The issue of dementia has been a theme for 2020 features. The most high profile is Florian Zeller’s The Father, which appears headed for multiple nominations including its leads Anthony Hopkins and Olivia Colman. Less likely titles to contend for consideration are Supernova with Colin Firth and Stanley Tucci and The Artist’s Wife starring Lena Olin and Bruce Dern.
On the doc side, I had Johnson listed at #4 for the various hopefuls. This race is obviously quite fluid at the moment, but the acclaim already received puts it as a strong contender. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
As October begins, my weekly Oscar predictions get a major expansion as I am now including all categories covering feature length films! Additionally, I’m dwindling the listed prospects in all the top races. For Best Picture, it goes from 25 to 15. The directing, acting, and screenplay contests drop from 15 to 10. This is why you’ll see so many movies dropping out of contention.
Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch is rumored to be moving from the 2020 window. While this has yet to be confirmed, I have taken it out of the running at this time. Obviously once its release date is announced, I’ll adjust accordingly.
For the tech races and Animated Feature, International Film, and Documentary Feature – I’ve definitely learned that these estimates will be fluid over the next months. This is just a first glimpse at where my head’s at.
As for developments in the significant categories:
Lee Isaac Chung’s Minari makes it debut in my nine predicted Picture nominees and that takes out Pixar’s Soul (which is listed #1 in Animated Feature). The directing players remain the same.
I have switched Kingsley Ben-Adir’s performance in One Night in Miami from Supporting Actor to lead. He makes the five and that drops Tom Hanks in News of the World. The Best Actress estimates remain.
The Supporting Actress nominees also stay intact. However, Ben-Adir’s shift in Supporting Actor means I am now including three actors from The Trial of the Chicago 7: Mark Rylance, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, and Sacha Baron Cohen. I’m not at all confident this happens, but it’s where I am at the moment. I now have Leslie Odom, Jr. as the representative from One Night in Miami in the race. Lakeith Stanfield moves away from the top five.
There are no changes in the screenplay predictions.
As a bonus, I am including how many nominees from my initial full predictions in 2019 ended up getting nominated in each race to give you an idea of historical accuracy. I will note that I didn’t expand my estimates last year until October 17th, so I did have a bit more to go on.
And with all that, let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
7. The Father (PR: 6)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
9. Minari (PR: 12)
Other Possibilities:
10. Soul (PR: 9)
11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)
12. Dune (PR: 10)
13. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 13)
14. Ammonite (PR: 16)
15. The White Tiger (PR: 14)
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 8/9
Dropped Out:
The French Dispatch
Stillwater
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Respect
The Midnight Sky
Annette
Next Goal Wins
Red, White and Water
C’Mon C’Mon
French Exit
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
5. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
8. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 11)
9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
10. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy
Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
Ramin Bahrani, The White Tiger
Tom McCarthy, Stillwater
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 1)
3. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)
4. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 4)
5. Michele Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7)
8. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
9. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 11)
10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 9)
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5
Dropped Out:
Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Jennifer Lawrence, Red, White and Water
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Rachel Brosnahan, I’m Your Woman
Marion Cotillard, Annette
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
2. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR 2)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 5)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 8)
8. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 12)
9. Matt Damon, Stillwater (PR: 6)
10. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7)
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5
Dropped Out:
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Courier
Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins
Adam Driver, Annette
Trevante Rhodes, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)
5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 6)
7. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 7)
8. Lily Collins, Mank (PR: 14)
9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Abigail Breslin, Stillwater (PR: 8)
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 2/5
Dropped Out:
Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans
Mary J. Blige, Respect
Toni Collette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Gaby Hoffman, C’Mon C’Mon
Kristin Scott Thomas, Rebecca
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
4. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
5. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 8)
7. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
8. Tom Pelphrey, Mank (PR: 9)
9. Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 12)
10. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 11)
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5
Dropped Out:
Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (moved to Lead Actor)
Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Richard Jenkins, The Humans
Tom Burke, Mank
Charles Dance, Mank
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
4. Soul (PR: 3)
5. Minari (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. On the Rocks (PR: 11)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
8. Ammonite (PR: 9)
9. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10)
10. Stillwater (PR: 8)
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 3/5
Dropped Out:
The French Dispatch
Respect
Pieces of a Woman
Red, White and Water
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
5. News of the World (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. Dune (PR: 8)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
9. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 9)
10. French Exit (PR: 10)
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5
Dropped Out:
The White Tiger
Next Goal Wins
The Humans
First Cow
The Midnight Sky
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul
2. Over the Moon
3. Wolfwalkers
4. Onward
5. The Croods: A New Age
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys
7. Connected
8. Rumble
9. Trolls World Tour
10. Ride Your Wave
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 3/5
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Crip Camp
2. Boys State
3. All In: The Fight for Democracy
4. Dick Johnson is Dead
5. Spaceship Earth
Other Possibilities:
6. John Lewis: Good Trouble
7. MLK/FBI
8. The Truffle Hunters
9. Miss Americana
10. On the Record
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 2/5
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quo Vadis, Aida?
2. The Disciple
3. Night of the Kings
4. Ema
5. Atlantis
Other Possibilities:
6. Another Round
7. The Life Ahead
8. Young Ahmed
9. A Sun
10. Memory House
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 3/5
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank
2. Nomadland
3. News of the World
4. Dune
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods
7. One Night in Miami
8. Judas and the Black Messiah
9. Ammonite
10. Tenet
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Emma
4. Dune
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Other Possibilities:
6. Coming 2 America
7. Ammonite
8. News of the World
9. Mulan
10. The Personal History of David Copperfield
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 2/5
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Mank
3. News of the World
4. Nomadland
5. Dune
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods
7. One Night in Miami
8. Tenet
9. Judas and the Black Messiah
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 3/5
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank
2. Dune
3. Birds of Prey
4. Coming 2 America
5. Mulan
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. No Time to Die
8. Emma
9. Wonder Woman 1984
10. Ammonite
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 2/5
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank
2. Soul
3. Da 5 Bloods
4. The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. Dune
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World
7. The Midnight Sky
8. One Night in Miami
9. Over the Moon
10. Tenet
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
2. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan
3. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
Other Possibilities:
6. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
7. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon
8. “Carried Me with You” from Onward
9. “Never Break” from Giving Voice
10. “See What You’ve Done” from Belly of the Beast
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 3/5
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank
2. Dune
3. News of the World
4. Mulan
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7
Other Possibilities:
6. Ammonite
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
8. One Night in Miami
9. Tenet
10. Judas and the Black Messiah
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet
2. Dune
3. Soul
4. Sound of Metal
5. Respect
Other Possibilities:
6. The Invisible Man
7. News of the World
8. No Time to Die
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7
10. Wonder Woman 1984
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: N/A – CATEGORY WAS SPLIT BETWEEN SOUND EDITING & SOUND MIXING
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune
2. Tenet
3. Greyhound
4. Wonder Woman 1984
5. The Invisible Man
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan
7. The Call of the Wild
8. No Time to Die
9. Free Guy
10. Birds of Prey
2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5
And that gives us our first breakdown of how many nominations I believe we will see for each picture:
12 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
10 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Dune
7 Nominations
News of the World
6 Nominations
Nomadland, One Night in Miami
5 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
4 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Soul
2 Nominations
Ammonite, Minari, Mulan, Pieces of a Woman, Tenet
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Atlantis, Birds of Prey, Boys State, Coming 2 America, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson is Dead, The Disciple, Ema, Emma, French Exit, Greyhound, Hillbilly Elegy, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, Miss Americana, Night of the Kings, No Time to Die, The One and Only Ivan, Onward, Over the Moon, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Respect, Sound of Metal, Spaceship Earth, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 