Judy Blume’s influential and controversial novel Forever… from 1975 was actually made into a TV movie with Stephanie Zimbalist back in 1978. Now one of her best known works, some 45 years later after the cinematic adaptation, serves as part of the title to a documentary about the author that screened at Sundance.
Judy Blume Forever from fimmakers Davina Pardo and Leah Wolchok (with Brian Grazer and Ron Howard as producers) chronicles the author and her dealings with fame and censorship. Early reviews out of Utah give it an 88% Rotten Tomatoes rating. While overall positive, a quick glance at the critical reaction leads me to question whether it generates awards chatter. As has been mentioned previously, celeb focused docs (there’s always a bunch of them) need to really stand out for the Academy’s doc branch to take notice. That could be a challenge with Forever. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
One of the buzziest titles to play at Sundance was writer/director Chloe Domont’s Fair Play, blending romance with corporate intrigue. It was snatched up for a princely sum of $20 million by Netflix with a planned rollout this year. The thriller stars Alden Ehrenreich (known by many from the title role in Solo: A Star Wars Story) and Phoebe Dynevor of Bridgerton fame).
Said to be a pic that will spark plenty of conversation, the Rotten Tomatoes score is 96%. This could be a streaming (and reportedly steamy) crowdpleaser that doesn’t warrant much awards chatter. Or Netflix could mount a campaign, especially for the original screenplay. We don’t know yet since they’ll have plenty of other features to tout come nominations time. Fair Play, at the least, announced itself as an option. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
It was a glorious performance for Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Banshees of Inisherin with this morning’s Oscar nominations. Both pics were up everywhere they needed to be for everything to potentially win the big prize on March 12th.
There were also strong showings for All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, The Fabelmans, and Top Gun: Maverick. However, it’s fair to say that each missed a key race or two that would’ve helped for their Best Picture viability.
As far as my own showing, I went 79 for 105 in my projections. I’ll take it though it’s slightly under my 82/105 performance from the previous year. One bright spot: no 2 for 5’s as I’d experienced a couple of times in preceding years.
Let’s walk through each race one by one with initial thoughts, shall we?
Best Picture
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking
How I Did: 8/10
No real shockers. The movies that I had listed 11th and 12th (Avatar and Women Talking) made it over my selections of Babylon and The Whale. I went a little bold omitting Water in the first place.
As hinted at, I’m seeing this as between Everything and Banshees with Fabelmans as a potential spoiler (and maybe Maverick if I’m feeling bold).
Best Director
The Nominees: Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
How I Did: 4/5
The Daniels v. Spielberg is where this may come down to. All Quiet had a solid morning, but Edward Berger missing (I predicted him) likely eliminates it as a BP winner. Ostlund gets in instead.
Best Actress
The Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Tár), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
How I Did: 3/5
In just the last few days, there was an organic (?) campaign launched for Riseborough by plenty of famous faces. She was nowhere near the radar for the bulk of the season. Her inclusion might alter how campaigns look in the future. Williams (who was looking shaky) and Riseborough make it over my predictions of Viola Davis (The Woman King) and Danielle Deadwyler (Till). Both of their pics were shutout completely. As for who makes the podium trip, it’s either Blanchett or Yeoh.
Best Actor
The Nominees: Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
For most prognosticators, this came down to Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick vs. Mescal for the fifth slot. It wasn’t to be for a fourth Cruise nod. For Mescal and Nighy, it’s an honor to be in the quintet. The race is between Butler and Farrell and Fraser (who have all nabbed key precursors). FYI – this entire lineup is first-time nominees and 16 of the acting nominees are newbies (which is very high).
Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
How I Did: 4/5
Hsu, who was my alternate, is in over Triangle‘s Dolly De Leon. If you’d told me De Leon’s movie would get Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay – I would’ve been even more confident she’d make it. With victories already at the Globes and Critics Choice, Bassett is the frontrunner.
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
How I Did: 4/5
Henry gets the unanticipated nod over my pick of Paul Dano in The Fabelmans (many had Eddie Redmayne in The Good Nurse projected here). This is, frankly, the simplest acting derby to call and it is Quan.
Best Original Screenplay
The Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
The expected five as the Banshees v Everything showdown could be a clue during the night as to what wins BP at the end of it.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking
How I Did: 3/5
Maverick and All Quiet over She Said (which was shut out) and The Whale. Considering Women Talking made it in the BP ten, it could get the gold in this race and this one only since it received the least amount of nods (2) for the BP hopefuls. As an aside, there’s always a screenplay contender that gets no other noms anywhere else. This year it was Glass Onion.
Best Animated Feature
The Nominees: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Sea Beast, Turning Red
How I Did: 4/5
Pinocchio should take this, but this marks its only nod (it was expected to contend for Song and some techs). I had gone with Netflix’s Wendell and Wild for the fifth spot over Netflix’s The Sea Beast.
Best International Feature Film
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Close, EO, The Quiet Girl
How I Did: 3/5
Here’s where there was a total surprise with Decision to Leave getting snubbed. I would’ve had it as the runner-up possibility to win over All Quiet (easily the favorite). I didn’t have Close or EO (though neither is unexpected). In addition to Decision, I also had Joyland.
Best Documentary Feature
The Nominees: All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, A House Made of Splinters, Navalny
How I Did: 4/5
Had Descendant instead of Splinters. There’s a path to victory for everything but Splinters in my view.
Best Cinematography
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Bardo, Elvis, Empire of Light, Tár
How I Did: 3/5
Top Gun: Maverick missing is baffling considering it was a major threat to win. It misses along with The Batman in favor of Bardo and Tár. I wouldn’t discount Empire for the victory though Quiet could make noise in this one.
Best Costume Design
The Nominees: Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
How I Did: 4/5
Everything‘s over performance is evident. I had The Woman King instead. The first three alphabetically are your possible winners.
Best Film Editing
The Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
How I Did: 3/5
In years past, getting an editing nod is often needed if you want to take BP. So it’s bad news for All Quiet and The Fabelmans. Banshees and Tár join the lineup in their place. Elvis, Everything, and Maverick all possibilities.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, The Whale
How I Did: 4/5
Had Amsterdam and not Quiet. Elvis or The Whale are most likely.
Best Original Score
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans
How I Did: 3/5
Considering it made BP, I didn’t think Women Talking would miss. I also had Pinocchio but it’s All Quiet and Everything. This could be the sole Oscar for Babylon.
Best Original Song
The Nominees: “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR, “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
How I Did: 4/5
Had Pinocchio‘s “Ciao Papa” and not the Everything tune. Despite big names like Lady Gaga, Rihanna, and producer Diane Warren in the mix, “Naatu Naatu” has taken the precursors.
Best Production Design
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Elvis, The Fabelmans
How I Did: 4/5
A rare occurrence as I had Everything projected and it didn’t make it. All Quiet materializes instead. This could be Elvis or maybe a second shot for Babylon.
Best Sound
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
How I Did: 4/5
The sound you hear when the envelope opens might be Maverick‘s only victory (now that Cinematography is impossible). I had EEAAO and not The Batman.
Best Visual Effects
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick
How I Did: 3/5
Had the wrong MCU pic with Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and not Panther. All Quiet is also in and I had Thirteen Lives. This should be the Avatar trophy.
That means these movies ended up garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:
11 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
9 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin
8 Nominations
Elvis
7 Nominations
The Fabelmans
6 Nominations
Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water
3 Nominations
Babylon, The Batman, Triangle of Sadness, The Whale
2 Nominations
Living, Women Talking
1 Nomination
Aftersun, All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Bardo, Blonde, Causeway, Close, Empire of Light, EO, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, A House Made of Splinters, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Quiet Girl, RRR, The Sea Beast, Tell It Like a Woman, To Leslie, Turning Red
So what’s next? Followers of the blog may recall that I will soon begin my “Case Of” posts. That’s 35 separate write-ups making the case for and against all contenders in Picture, Director, and the four acting competitions. Stay tuned!
Director Nicole Holofcener reunites with her Enough Said star Julia Louis-Dreyfus for You Hurt My Feelings, which has screened at Sundance. The comedy is drawing satisfactory notices in Utah with a 95% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Look for distributor A24 to mount an awards campaign as the year rolls along.
Enough Said was able to nab Louis-Dreyfus a Golden Globe Best Actress nod in Musical/Comedy and that could certainly occur again. She stands the best chance among costars that include Tobias Menzies, David Cross, Amber Tamblyn, Michaela Watkins, Arian Moayed, and Owen Teague.
Holofcener is already an Academy nominee for cowriting the adapted screenplay for 2018’s Can You Ever Forgive Me? I wouldn’t count on a second writing mention. While critics are being kind, this has the feel of a Globe Predictions post with its lead’s chances. My Oscar Predictions posts will continue…
After starring in last year’s Oscar winning Best Picture CODA, Emilia Jones is back onscreen in two features playing at the Sundance Film Festival. One is Fairyland which I’ll get to in my prediction posts shortly. The other is thriller Cat Person from director Susanna Fogel (who cowrote 2019’s acclaimed coming-of-age dramedy Booksmart).
Based on a short story that generated lots of attention after it was published in The New Yorker, Jones plays a college student in a dangerous online romance with an older man (Nicholas Braun from Succession). Costars include Geraldine Viswanathan, Hope Davis, Michael Gandolfini, Liza Koshy, and Isabella Rossellini.
Early reviews are of the mixed variety with a current 75% rating based on the small sampling via Rotten Tomatoes. This could generate some buzz with audiences after a distributor picks it up and that should occur imminently. I doubt it will follow suit with awards chatter. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Eileen is director William Oldroyd’s sophomore feature after his well-reviewed 2016 rendering of Lady Macbeth with Florence Pugh. This psychological thriller/romance set in the 1960s is based on Ottessa Moshfegh’s 2015 novel and has premiered at Sundance. Thomasin McKenzie and Anne Hathaway headline with a supporting cast including Shea Whigham, Owen Teague, and Marin Ireland.
It is already clear this project will generate lots of attention. A number of early takes are raves with some claiming career best work from McKenzie and Hathaway. Ireland is also being singled out as a scene stealer. There’s said to be a twist in the proceedings that has divided critics and may do the same with audiences.
At Sundance, plenty of pics are looking for distribution and Eileen (with comparisons to Carol and Hitchcock) should easily be snatched up. If an awards campaign is in the cards, we’ll see if the trio of actresses can materialize in the convo or if Adapted Screenplay is feasible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
A flashy rock founder is profiled in Little Richard: I Am Everything which premiered at Sundance over the weekend. The documentary comes from Lisa Cortes, who directed the acclaimed All In: The Fight for Democracy. Her follow-up chronicles its subject’s fight for recognition.
With a handful of reviews in, they are positive across the board. Magnolia Pictures has already picked up distribution rights and an April release is planned. Just as I mentioned with Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, celeb focused docs often get ignored by the Academy. I believe Still has the potential to have staying power in awards season. Everything will need a campaign as spirited as Little Richard to get its own recognition. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Director Roger Ross Williams is no stranger to the Academy. His short film Music by Prudence was 2009’s recipient for Documentary Short Subject (making him the first African-American director to win an Oscar). The 2016 feature length doc Life, Animated was a contender in that race.
At Sundance, Williams is branching outside of the doc genre for Cassandro, which explores a real life subject. Gael Garcia Bernal is the title character – an openly gay Mexican wrestler who attained huge stardom. With a smattering of reviews in, the Rotten Tomatoes score is 100%.
With earlier acclaimed roles in The Motorcycle Diaries, Bad Education, and Babel, Bernal has yet to find his awards showcase role. He might get it here if distributor Amazon launches a serious campaign. The same can be said for Jonathan Majors and Magazine Dreams, which was my previous predictions write-up coming from Utah’s festival. Needless to say it’s early, but we already have potential hopefuls for next year’s Actor derby.
Cassandro could also contend for the memorable costumes that Bernal dons in the ring. Bottom line: this is worth keeping tabs on as the 2023 awards season is in its infancy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Jonathan Majors is about to have a high profile first quarter of 2023 and it begins at Sundance this weekend. The Lovecraft Country and Devotion star (who first captured the attention of reviewers in 2019’s The Last Black Man in San Francisco) will appear as the villainous Kang the Conquerer in February’s MCU sequel Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania. Just two weeks later in early March, he will square off against Michael B. Jordan in Creed III.
At Sundance, audiences are getting their first look at him in Magazine Dreams. The sophomore effort from writer/director Elijah Bynum, Majors is a disturbed bodybuilder with roided out rage. Costars include Haley Bennett, Taylour Paige, Mike O’Hearn, Harrison Page, and Harriet Sansom Harris.
Early reaction is mostly positive though they’re not across the board raves. The praise for Majors exceeds that of the picture. Critics are applauding the lead’s commitment to the challenging role. With supporting roles in the aforementioned likely blockbusters, look for a distributor to snatch Magazine up quickly. Don’t be surprised if they issue a major campaign for Best Actor. Majors could be a factor a year down the road. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
I have penned dozens and dozens of posts setting the stage. The time for chatter is over. Below you will find my forecast in all 20 feature film categories with an alternate picked in each.
I will have a recap up Tuesday evening recounting how I did with some initial thoughts on frontrunners to win.
Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
The Whale
Alternate: Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Director
Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Todd Field, Tár
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Alternate: Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alternate: Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Best Actor
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
Alternate: Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Alternate: Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Supporting Actor
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alternate: Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Best Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Triangle of Sadness
Alternate: Aftersun
Best Adapted Screenplay
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living
She Said
The Whale
Women Talking
Alternate: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Animated Feature
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
Wendell and Wild
Alternate: My Father’s Dragon
Best International Feature Film
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Decision to Leave
Joyland
The Quiet Girl
Alternate: Close
Best Documentary Feature
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Descendant
Fire of Love
Navalny
Alternate: Moonage Daydream
Best Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Elvis
Empire of Light
Top Gun: Maverick
Alternate: The Fabelmans
Best Costume Design
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
The Woman King
Alternate: The Fabelmans
Best Film Editing
All Quiet on the Western Front
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick
Alternate: The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Amsterdam
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale
Alternate: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Score
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Women Talking
Alternate: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Original Song
“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman
“Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR
Alternate: “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Production Design
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Alternate: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Top Gun: Maverick
Alternate: The Batman
Best Visusal Effects
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Thirteen Lives
Top Gun: Maverick
Alternate: All Quiet on the Western Front
And that means a final tally for these movies generating these numbers in terms of nominations:
9 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
8 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, The Fabelmans
6 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
The Whale
4 Nominations
Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Tár
3 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness
2 Nominations
Living, The Woman King, Women Talking
1 Nomination
Aftersun, All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Amsterdam, Argentina, 1985, Blonde, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Joyland, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Quiet Girl, RRR, She Said, Till, Tell It Like a Woman, Thirteen Lives, Turning Red, Wendell and Wild
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