Tag: Oscar Predictions

Oscar Predictions: How to Blow Up a Pipeline

The environmental heist thriller How to Blow Up a Pipeline debuted in limited release over Easter weekend to solid results. From director Daniel Goldhaber, this is a fictionalized adaptation of Andreas Malm’s nonfiction 2021 novel. The cast includes Ariela Barer (who also co-scripted), Kristine Froseth, Lukas Gage, Forrest Goodluck, Sasha Lane, Jayme Lawson, Marcus Scribner, Jake Weary, and Irene Bedard.

Pipeline first screened at the Toronto Film Festival to impressive reviews and was quickly snatched up by Neon for distribution. The Rotten Tomatoes meter stands at 95%. I would not be surprised if its distributor (who shepherded Triangle of Sadness to a BP nom last year) make a serious campaign push here.

It could be a long shot for BP, but I wouldn’t totally discount it. This could also be a contender for an Adapted Screenplay nod. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Super Mario Bros. Movie

The Super Mario Bros. Movie is out tomorrow and looks to rule the Easter holiday frame. While big money is about to flow through the pipeline, reviews are more of the mixed variety. The Illumination Entertainment animated production of the Nintendo property sits at 56% on Rotten Tomatoes.

This is the 13th feature from the studio. Of the previous dozen, only one (2013’s Despicable Me 2) has managed a Best Animated Feature mention. Illumination’s titles generate coins, but not nominations. That doesn’t look to change with Mario and Luigi’s new adventure. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Paint

Owen Wilson’s character in Paint might be named Carl Nargle, but he’s obviously based on the late coater of happy little trees PBS host Bob Ross. The comedy is written and directed by Brit McAdams and debuts in limited release this Friday. Costars include Michaela Watkins, Wendi McLendon-Covey, Ciara Renée, and Stephen Root.

The review embargo has lapsed and most critics are hardly deeming it a valuable work of art. It has just a 31% score on Rotten Tomatoes. Wilson actually received an Oscar nomination over 20 years ago for co-scripting The Royal Tenenbaums with Wes Anderson.

This won’t grant him a second. Based on the mostly negative reaction, it will be easy for voters to brush this one off. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

2023 Oscar Predictions: March 2023 Edition (Best Picture)

For the past week, I’ve given you my impossibly premature projections for the 96th Academy Awards. After all, most of these predicted features have yet to hold a screening.

Yet it’s worth pointing out that my initial forecast for the previous BP nominees in April of 2022 yielded seven of the ten eventual nominees. Three were included in my top 10: the winner Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, and Women Talking. Four were placed in Other Possibilities – Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, and Tár.

Let’s see how this ratio for 2023 works out a few months down the road, shall we? If you missed my look at Director and the four acting competitions, they can accessed at the end of this post.

Here we go!

TODD’S MARCH 2023 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST PICTURE

Air

Challengers

The Color Purple

Dune: Part Two

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

May December

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

Other Possibilities:

Asteroid City

Barbie

The Bikeriders

Blitz

The Book of Clarence

Ferrari

Flint Strong

Foe

The Holdvoers

The Killer

Napoleon

Next Goal Wins

Rustin

Saltburn

Untitled Bob Marley Movie

2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Director)
2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Actress)
2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Actor)
2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Supporting Actress)
2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Supporting Actor)

2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Director)

This blogger’s first take on the 96th Academy Awards arrives at Best Director. If you didn’t catch my early glimpses for the acting races, you can find them linked at the bottom.

When I made my initial projections for the recently aired 95th Oscars back in April 2022, it correctly identified one of the eventual nominees: Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. The eventual winners – the Daniels for Everything Everywhere All at Once – were mentioned in Other Possibilities.

I’ll have Best Picture up later this evening!

TODD’S MARCH 2023 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST DIRECTOR

Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Celine Song, Past Lives

Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

Other Possibilities:

Ben Affleck, Air

Wes Anderson, Asteroid City

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Emerald Fennell, Saltburn

Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Luca Guadagnino, Challengers

Todd Haynes, May December

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Steve McQueen, Blitz

Jeymes Samuel, The Book of Clarence

2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Actress)
2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Actor)
2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Supporting Actress)
2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Supporting Actor)

2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Actress)

My initial projections for the 96th Academy Awards arrives at Best Actress. If you missed my takes on the other three acting derbies, they can be accessed at the bottom of the post.

As I’ve mentioned in the other write-ups, this is simply a super early snapshot of the possibilities. A year ago in my first forecast for the 95th Oscars, none of the five actresses I had pegged in this race ended up being nominated. However, the pictures for two of them (Emma Stone for Poor Things and Regina King in Shirley) were pushed back to this year and you can find their names below yet again. Three of the eventual nominees for 2022 were listed in Other Possibilities: eventual winner Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Cate Blanchett (Tár), and Ana de Armas (Blonde).

I’ll have Director and the big prize Picture posted tomorrow!

TODD’S MARCH 2023 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST ACTRESS

Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple

Greta Lee, Past Lives

Natalie Portman, May December

Margot Robbie, Barbie

Emma Stone, Poor Things

Other Possibilities:

Marisa Abela, Back to Black

Amy Adams, Nightbitch

Annette Bening, Nyad

Regina King, Shirley

Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla

Kate Winslet, Lee

Zendaya, Challengers

2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Actor)
2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Supporting Actress)
2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Supporting Actor)

2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Actor)

My wildly early first look at the major categories for next year’s Oscars continues with Best Actor! If you missed my posts covering the supporting derbies, they are linked at the bottom.

Quite honestly, I had a hard time shrinking this list down to 15. Leaving out possible contenders such as Benedict Cumberbatch (The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar), Adam Driver (Ferrari), or Michael Fassbender (The Killer or Next Goal Wins) felt odd. Even Matt Damon for Air (out next weekend) is a legit hopeful. There’s plenty of others I could name.

It is worth pointing out that my inaugural projections for 2022 correctly placed eventual winner Brendan Fraser (The Whale) in the top five while Austin Butler (Elvis) and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) were both mentioned in Other Possibilities.

A final note (and there’s no great to broach this) is that I likely would’ve had Jonathan Majors (Magazine Dreams) in my quintet instead of in Other Possibilities a week ago. However, his weekend arrest obviously complicates the matter and throws any potential campaign into disarray.

Here’s the premiere forecast for ’23 and Best Actress is up next.

TODD’S MARCH 2023 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST ACTOR

Kingsley Ben-Adir, Untitled Bob Marley Movie

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Mike Faist, Challengers

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Other Possibilities:

Colman Domingo, Rustin

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Andre Holland, The Actor

Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session

Barry Keoghan, Saltburn

Jonathan Majors, Magazine Dreams

Charles Melton, May December

Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon

Lakeith Stanfield, The Book of Clarence

2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Supporting Actress)
2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Supporting Actor)

2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Supporting Actress)

My impossibly early and speculative first Oscar predictions for the 96th Academy Awards arrives at Best Supporting Actress! If you missed my post regarding the Supporting Actor hopefuls, you can find it here:

2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Supporting Actor)

Before you know it, I’ll moving to my weekly (or every two weeks) forecasts for the main races. When I did these inaugural picks in this category last year, it correctly identified one eventual nominee (Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans) that made the quintet. However, she did so in lead Actress. Another (Hong Chau for The Whale) was listed in Other Possibilities.

Let’s get to it and Best Actor is up tomorrow!

TODD’S MARCH 2023 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Viola Davis, Air

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple

Julianne Moore, May December

Other Possibilities:

Jodie Foster, Nyad

Claire Foy, Strangers

Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Lashana Lynch, Untitled Bob Marley Movie

Audra McDonald, Rustin

Carey Mulligan, Saltburn

Margaret Qualley, Poor Things

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Amy Ryan, Beau is Afraid

Moon Seung-ah, Past Lives

2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Supporting Actor)

Just as I did last year, I waited an entire two weeks from the previous ceremony before pontificating on the next Oscars. There is my impossibly early look at the six major categories for the 96th Academy Awards and it begins with Supporting Actor.

Let’s be clear that many of the 15 names I mention today will probably not be on the radar screen a little less than a year from now. Release dates will get pushed back and make some hopefuls ineligible. Some pictures will simply fizzle out. Roles will be smaller than anticipated or even bigger and perhaps contend in the lead derby.

With the four acting races and director, I’ll give you my five current picks with ten other possibilities. When it gets to Picture later this week, I’ll project my ten and list fifteen others.

In 2022, when I made my super duper early picks in Supporting Actor, it yielded none of the eventual contenders. Like I said… it’s early. Some of the names I said last time around were Mark Ruffalo for Poor Things, Glynn Turman in Rustin, and Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon. All three of those movies were pushed to 2023 and that’s why they materialize again.

Best Supporting Actress will be posted tomorrow. This is my snapshot of Supporting Actor.

TODD’S MARCH 2023 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple

Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

Josh O’Connor, Challengers

Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Other Possibilities:

Ben Affleck, Air

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Book of Clarence

Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer

Matthew Goode, Freud’s Last Stand

Stephen Graham, Blitz

Richard E. Grant, Saltburn

Tahar Rahim, Napoleon

Glynn Turman, Rustin

Oscar Predictions: A Good Person

Zach Braff returns to the director’s seat as A Good Person opens in limited release on Friday before a wider output on March 31st. It casts Florence Pugh (a 2019 Supporting Actress contender for Little Women) and Morgan Freeman (five-time nominee who took Supporting Actor for 2004’s Million Dollar Baby) as individuals brought together by a tragedy involving the latter’s daughter. Molly Shannon, Chinaza Uche, Celeste O’Connor, and Zoe Lister-Jones costar.

Back in 2004, Braff’s debut behind the camera drew critical acclaim with Garden State (taking the Grand Jury prize at Sundance). Follow-ups Wish I Was Here (2014) and Going in Style (2017) drew more mixed reaction and so too has this. The drama stands at 50% on Rotten Tomatoes. Based on that reaction, A Good Person is a bad bet for any awards attention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…