Tag: Oscar Predictions

Oscar Predictions: Hamnet

Five years after Nomadland won her Best Picture and Director statues at the 93rd Academy Awards, Chloé Zhao looks to be contending once again at the 98th ceremony due to Hamnet. Based on the 2020 novel by Maggie O’Farrell (who cowrites the script with the filmmaker), the historical drama has premiered at Telluride prior to its late November limited release and December 12th expansion. It will also screen in Toronto. Jessie Buckley, a Supporting Actress nominee for The Lost Daughter, headlines as Agnes Shakespeare. Paul Mescal, a lead actor contender for 2022’s Aftersun, is her famous playwright husband. Costars include Joe Alwyn, Emily Watson, and Jacobi Jupe.

A fictionalized account of the Shakespeares’ relationship, Hamnet is being called an emotionally wrenching experience and is drawing raves from critics. Metacritic is at 95 with 100% thus far on Rotten Tomatoes. While the MCU’s Eternals (considered by many to be a disappointment) was Zhao’s follow-up to her BP winner, this should bring her back to the awards conversation in multiple categories.

That includes Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay where inclusion seems quite real. In down-the-line plays, there are multiple possibilities starting with Max Richter’s score. This is in addition to Costume Design, Production Design, Cinematography, and Film Editing.

As for the performances, let’s start with the fact that the new Casting race is doable. There’s no doubt that Buckley is not just a threat for a nomination, but a victory. As for Mescal, it will be interesting to see if Focus Features campaigns for him in lead or supporting. I’m sticking with him in the latter for now though it sounds like it could go either way. I don’t believe his inclusion is as assured as Buckley’s, but the pic’s overall momentum could definitely propel him to a second at bat. Bottom line: Hamnet has unquestionably upped its chances already via the festival circuit.

Oscar Predictions: Frankenstein

Guillermo del Toro’s previous three directorial efforts have either won Best Picture (2017’s The Shape of Water), been nominated for BP (2021’s Nightmare Alley), or won Best Animated Feature (Pinocchio). So it’s no surprise that his passion project – the filmmaker’s version of Frankenstein – is seen as a hopeful in numerous categories at the 98th Academy Awards. The two and a half hour gothic rendering of Mary Shelley’s novel has screened at Venice (with Toronto up next). It hits theaters October 17th in limited fashion before a Netflix streaming start on November 7th. Oscar Isaac is Dr. Frankenstein with Jacob Elordi as the Creature. Costars include Mia Goth, Christoph Waltz, Felix Kammerer, Lars Mikkelsen, David Bradley, Charles Dance, and Christian Convery.

Reaction from Italy could be described as respectful for what del Toro has accomplished without being overzealous in the praise. Rotten Tomatoes is at 77% with Metacritic at 73. That’s in the neighborhood of where Nightmare Alley was and Netflix could pull off a BP nod if their campaign is well executed. Of the cast, only Elordi (in supporting) seems like a potential threat for inclusion. I wouldn’t count on del Toro’s direction or adapted screenplay being honored.

Where Frankenstein is expected to pop up is tech derbies like Cinematography, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling (a shoo-in), Production Design (same), Sound, Visual Effects, and Alexandre Desplat’s score. This may not nab the monster haul of all those categories, but it should definitely be noticed in some. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Awards prospects for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere are no longer a complete unknown now that it has premiered at Telluride prior to its October 24th domestic bow. Chronicling the making of his 1982 album Nebraska during a tumultuous personal period, Jeremy Allen White headlines as the legendary Boss in the Scott Cooper directed effort. Jeremy Strong (as longtime manager Jon Landau), Paul Walter Hauser, Stephen Graham, Odessa Young, Gaby Hoffman, Marc Maron, and David Krumholtz costar.

As reviews trickle in from Colorado, some common themes have emerged. Critics are praising its focus on a particular time in Springsteen’s legendary career and avoiding musical biopic cliches. Word-of-mouth indicates this could fare well with Academy voters like last year’s Bob Dylan centered A Complete Unknown. That includes viability in Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, and down-the-line races like Casting, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, and certainly Sound. Cooper probably is a long shot for his direction though it is worth noting that James Mangold was a bit of a surprise nominee for Unknown.

As for the performances, White (a two-time Emmy winner for The Bear) seems poised for his first Oscar recognition. In the supporting derbies, it sounds like Strong is the better bet over Graham. Prognosticators have been wondering who would emerge between the two. If the Succession thespian makes the Supporting Actor quintet, it would be his second nom in a row after last year’s The Apprentice. While Odessa Young is being singled out in some write-ups, I doubt she materializes in Supporting Actress. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Blue Moon

Nouvelle Vague is Richard Linklater’s showbiz centered dramedy that premiered at Cannes that could contend for awards attention this season. Blue Moon is his other showbiz centered dramedy that was screened prior to Vague at the Berlin fest and is getting more exposure this weekend at Telluride. It stars the director’s frequent collaborator Ethan Hawke as Lorenz Hart, songwriter for Oklahoma! on the night of its Broadway premiere. Margaret Qualley, Andrew Scott (as composer Richard Rodgers), and Bobby Cannavale costar.

With Sony handling distribution (it’s out in October), you can expect an Oscar push and that particularly applies to Hawke. A two-time supporting nominee for 2001’s Training Day and 2014’s Boyhood, this is certainly his strongest shot at lead consideration since 2018’s First Reformed. Scott is worthy of mention as he was awarded the Silver Bear award for his supporting turn in Germany earlier this year.

Despite commendable 96% and 76 ratings on Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic, respectively, I don’t see this being a factor in the Best Picture derby. Yet I’m beginning to suspect Hawke could be a dark horse possibility if other lead actor performances not yet screened don’t pan out. I also wouldn’t totally discount Scott or Qualley, but I think Hawke stands the best shot. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: No Other Choice

No Other Choice is the newest feature from acclaimed South Korean filmmaker Park Chan-wook and it has premiered in Venice. With domestic distribution by Neon, the satirical thriller is expected to hit domestic screens later this year. It is based on a 1997 novel by Donald Westlake. The cast is led by Lee Byung-hun with supporting turns from Son Ye-jin, Park Hee-soon, Lee Sung-min, Yeom Hye-ran, and Cha Seung-won.

Chan-wook has made critical darlings including Oldboy, The Handmaiden, and Decision to Leave. Yet none of his efforts have been recognized by the Academy in the International Feature Film derby. 2022’s Leave was widely expected to do so and its snub was one of the biggest shockers on that nomination morning.

Choice certainly has the reviews to change that with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 86 on Metacritic. In a best case scenario, it could branch out from IFF and into Best Picture with Chan-wook in the directing quintet, Byung-hun in Actor, and an Adapted Screenplay mention. I think the most likely scenario is inclusion in IFF and the screenplay race. There’s also the possibility that the Academy ignores it like they did with Leave. However, one could argue that pic’s snub could help his latest. One thing to keep an eye is Neon’s bandwidth in their campaigns. In the international competition, they will also be juggling Sentimental Value (the frontrunner at this juncture), Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Acciddent, and the heralded The Secret Agent and Sirât (both Cannes favorites). I wouldn’t put it past Neon to successfully shine lights on all of them though it could be a stretch. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: After the Hunt

While Bugonia and Jay Kelly have at least kept their Best Picture chances intact at the Venice Film Festival, it could be a different story for Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt. The #MeToo themed psychological thriller is playing out of competition at the Italian fest prior to its October 10th release. Julia Roberts, Andrew Garfield, Ayo Edebiri, Michael Stuhlbarg, and Chloë Sevigny make up the ensemble.

Early reviews have it at just 50% on Rotten Tomatoes and 56 on Metacritic. There was hope this could be the filmmaker’s strongest awards play since Call Me by Your Name (2017). The initial word-of-mouth certainly dilutes that notion.

Where could this still be viable? Even some middling to negative reviews indicate performance of Ms. Roberts is impressive enough to warrant a fifth nomination (she won in 2000 for Erin Brockovich). It will fascinating to monitor whether the overall general reaction will doom a potential first nod since 2013’s August: Osage County. The score by Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross could be noticed. As for other categories, Garfield and Edebiri (who I’ve predicted in the supporting fields for weeks) look more vulnerable than Hunt‘s leading lady. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: A Little Prayer

Writer/director Angus MacLachlan’s family drama A Little Prayer premiered over two and a half years ago at the 2023 Sundance Film Festival to critical appreciation. Sony picked up distribution rights, but the deal fell through and the indie pic is finally being released in limited fashion today after Music Box acquired it.

So while Venice and Telluride debut plenty of high-profile potential titles for the 98th Academy Awards over the weekend, this one is opening quietly. David Strathairn, Jane Levy, Celia Watson, Will Pullen, Anna Camp, and Dascha Polanco make up the ensemble. Nominated for Best Actor 20 years for George Clooney’s Good Night, and Good Luck, Strathairn is drawing kudos for his work as is Levy.

Simply put, I just think Prayer won’t get the push it needs for consideration from the Academy. Perhaps some Indie Spirit love will come its way. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Jay Kelly

Will Jay Kelly bring Noah Baumbach and George Clooney back in the Oscar mix and get Adam Sandler there for the first time? Out in limited release November 14th with a Netflix streaming debut on December 5th, the dramedy premiered at Venice. Baumbach shares screenplay duties with actress Emily Mortimer. In addition to the aforementioned leading men (with Clooney playing a giant movie star and Sandler as his manager), costars include Laura Dern, Billy Crudup, Riley Keough, Stacy Keach, and Jim Broadbent.

Some reviews are quite strong. However, Kelly is also drawing some mixed reactions out of Italy. Rotten Tomatoes is at 82% with Metacritic at 64. The latter is slightly alarming when it comes to Best Picture inclusion, but I could still see the Academy going for it.

Clooney is aiming for his fifth acting nod. He won his first nomination in supporting for Syriana. Word-of-mouth from Venice indicates he should be in contention again. Some write-ups are calling Sandler’s role on the thankless side. Yet others praise him enough that a Supporting Actor slot is in reach. The SNL alum likely came closest to an Oscar mention for 2019’s Uncut Gems.

Even if Kelly makes BP, I doubt Baumbach lands in the directorial quintet and even the screenplay could be questionable given the expected competition. Bottom line: Venice didn’t make this a slam dunk in any race, but it could still have an impressive showing. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Bugonia

Let’s start with a major caveat as my Oscar Prediction posts from the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festivals kick off in earnest on this blog. Sometimes buzz emanating from these extravaganzas can be misleading. Initial word-of-mouth can make it seem like a particular film is a slam-dunk for awards consideration. On the flip side, mixed reaction can appear to doom a pic’s prospects and then it rallies upon wide release.

Venice started yesterday, Telluride begins tomorrow, and Toronto gets underway in a week. You can anticipate a lot of write-ups in the coming days. One of the more high-profile titles has screened in Italy and that’s Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos. A remake of the 2003 South Korean sci-fi satire Save the Green Planet!, the director’s regulars Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons headline. The supporting cast includes Aidan Delbis, Stavros Halkias, and Alicia Silverstone. It releases domestically on October 24th.

At a quick glance, the 100% Rotten Tomatoes meter (based on 13 reviews) and 82 on Metacritic indicates another massive Oscar player on the level of Lanthimos’s The Favourite and Poor Things. And that could hold true. A deeper dive into the critical takes makes me question whether it makes the Best Picture cut like the aforementioned efforts. I have had Bugonia in my top ten BP contenders for a number of weeks. I will say that, right now, I’m unsure whether it stays there.

Inclusion in BP may dictate whether Stone and Plemons make the cut in their lead categories. They could do it without the movie getting in the biggest race, but it makes it tougher. Right now it seems that Stone might have the edge if only one gets in. That dynamic might shift depending on how crowded the lead derbies become. Of all the major categories, Adapted Screenplay could be the strongest possibility. Film Editing, Cinematography, and Original Score are all feasible in the down-the-line competitions. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: La Grazia

Since 2013, three Italian pictures have made the cut for Best International Feature Film at the Oscars. Two of them were directed by Paolo Sorrentino – 2013’s The Great Beauty won and The Hand of God nominated in 2021 was in the contending quintet (the non-Sorrentino hopeful was 2023’s lo capitano). The writer/director hopes to be in the mix again via La Grazia which kicked off the Venice Film Festival today.

Toni Servillo, Anna Ferzetti, and Massimo Venturiello star in the politically charged drama and early reaction is mostly fresh with 86% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 70 Metacritic. This is Sorrentino’s follow-up to last year’s Parthenope which was considered a misfire by many critics. While La Grazia is faring better, this is certainly no shoo-in for inclusion if Italy chooses it as their selection for IFF. Competition is already strong considering Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, No Other Choice, and others that will inevitably materialize. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…