Tag: Oscar Predictions

Oscar Predictions: Nyad

In an unusual bit of Oscar history, Annette Bening would probably be a two-time Best Actress recipient if not for Hilary Swank. The latter took home the statue in 1999 for Boys Don’t Cry and Bening was likely runner-up for Best Picture winner American Beauty. In 2004, a late Million Dollar Baby surge gave Swank her second award with Bening’s performance in Being Julia probably in second position.

Nyad has premiered at Telluride prior to its October 20th limited theatrical release and November 3rd Netflix streaming debut. Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin, makers of the Oscar winning doc Free Solo, direct. It casts the five-time nominee as real-life swimmer Diana Nyad and critics are praising her performance. Same goes for costar Jodie Foster (in supporting), a two-time Actress victor like Swank who would also be vying for her sixth overall nod.

Both are possibilities as reviews are sturdy (100% on RT). I don’t think this wades into the Best Picture conversation. Both Actress and Supporting Actress look crowded already, but it would be foolish to discount either of these acting legends. Lucky for Bening, Ms. Swank doesn’t seem to have anything in contention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Hit Man

Glen Powell got a whole lotta exposure last year with his memorable supporting turn in Top Gun: Maverick. It sounds like he’s got a heckuva starring vehicle via Hit Man, Richard Linklater’s latest that premiered at Venice. The action comedy is cowritten by the director and his star. The buzz out of Italy is strong and the Rotten Tomatoes score is 100%.

Linklater is a three-time screenwriting Oscar nominee for 2004’s Before Sunset and 2013’s Before Midnight (in Adapted) and 2014’s Boyhood (in Original). Hit Man is based on a magazine article. Despite the kudos for Powell’s performance (Best Actor is just too crowded already), it’s Adapted Screenplay where this stands a shot at recognition for the two scribes.

Assuming this is slotted in Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes, I wouldn’t discount this nabbing a Best Picture and Actor nomination from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: All of Us Strangers

Andrew Haigh’s All of Us Strangers has made quite an impact from its Telluride premiere over the weekend. A love and ghost story mashed into one, the writer/director loosely adapts a 1987 novel starring Andrew Scott, Paul Mescal (who scored a Best Actor nod last year for Aftersun), Jamie Bell, and Claire Foy.

Critics are hailing this as an emotionally resonant experience resulting in a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score. Haigh directed Charlotte Rampling to a Best Actress nomination for 2015’s 45 Years. Scott could represent the best possibility in Best Actor, but that race is overflowing with possibilities. Perhaps he can grab onto the fifth slot that his costar Mescal managed a year ago. As for Mescal, Supporting Actor is starting to look even more crowded. It’s a similar story in Supporting Actress for Foy, who’s come awfully close to the final five before for First Man and Women Talking. She may have to wait.

While Best Picture isn’t out of the question, I could totally see Strangers getting an Adapted Screenplay mention and that being its solo nomination. There are usually a couple of writing hopefuls that are up only in that competition. That said, Fox Searchlight knows how to campaign. It’s also worth noting they will be doing so for Poor Things as well. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Priscilla

One year after Elvis landed 8 Oscar nominations (but no wins), your mind might be suspicious that this year’s Priscilla could also attract awards voters. Based on reaction from its Venice, you might be wrong. Sofia Coppola’s biopic casts Cailee Spaeny as The King’s young bride with Jacob Elordi as the legendary entertainer. The A24 release hits theaters on October 27th.

With a Rotten Tomatoes score of 95%, Priscilla enters what it clearly already a crowded BP and Actress race. The film and Spaeny are certainly not guaranteed to make the cuts (especially the former). Elordi could contend, but Supporting Actor inclusion might be a reach. Based on a 1985 memoir cowritten by the title subject, Coppola’s adapted screenplay could also struggle in a bustling field. Unlike her Lost in Translation from 20 years ago, don’t count on her making the director or writing races.

I suspect A24 will need to mount expert campaigns for anything beyond Spaeney in Actress and she’s already competing with the likes of Emma Stone (Poor Things), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Greta Lee (Past Lives), and Annette Bening (Nyad) to name a few. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Killer

David Fincher’s last five films have received at least one Oscar nomination with three (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Social Network, Mank) up for Best Picture. His latest is The Killer with a Venice premiere this weekend, limited theatrical release October 27th, and Netflix stream beginning on November 10th. The action thriller stars Michael Fassbender in the title role with a supporting cast including Arliss Howard, Charles Parnell, Kerry O’Malley, Sala Baker, Sophie Charlotte, and Tilda Swinton.

The reviews indicate this is right up Fincher’s alley as a cold tale of an assassin that is unquestionably pristinely made. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 88%. The reaction also hints that this will not be the awards player in the big categories that his last batch were. That quintet of previously nominated pics all nabbed acting nominations. Despite praise for Fassbender’s lead work, Best Actor already looks too crowded for his inclusion. It also sounds like Swinton in Supporting Actress is a non-starter.

Per usual with Fincher’s work, tech nods could come in Film Editing (that’s where Dragon Tattoo won), Cinematography (where Mank was victorious), and Score (where Social Network reigned supreme). There’s also the chance it’s the filmmaker’s first not nominated movie since 2007’s Zodiac. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Saltburn

Emerald Fennell’s debut Promising Young Woman landed five high profile nods in 2020: Picture, Director, Actress (Carey Mulligan), Original Screenplay (which it won), and Film Editing. She’s back again with Saltburn and it has debuted at Telluride prior to its November 24th limited release and December 1st wide bow. The psychological thriller stars Barry Keoghan (fresh off a Supporting Actor nod for last year’s The Banshees of Inisherin), Jacob Elordi, Rosamund Pike, Richard E. Grant, Alison Oliver, Archie Madekwe, and Mulligan (in what’s said to be a short appearance).

Initial reaction out of Colorado is divergent. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 75%, but its detractors are rather loud. So are its ardent admirers. Chances for a Best Picture or Director nod are far less promising than for Young Woman. Voters could choose to honor Fennell once again with a nom in Original Screenplay but that’s iffy as well.

As far as acting mentions, only Keoghan seems to be a possibility. There are plenty of other hopefuls contending in movies that could land in BP and he could face an uphill climb. Techs like Cinematography and Production Design are feasible. Yet Saltburn doesn’t appear poised to follow Fennell’s first feature with its prospects. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Maestro

Five years ago, Bradley Cooper made his directorial debut with A Star Is Born and it received 8 Oscar nominations with its sole win coming for “Shallow” in Original Song. At the Venice Film Festival, his follow-up Maestro has bowed prior to its November 22nd limited theatrical output and December 20th Netflix premiere. It recounts the relationship between famed conductor Leonardo Bernstein (Cooper) and activist Felicia Montealegre (Carey Mulligan). Costars include Matt Bomer, Maya Hawke, Sarah Silverman, and Michael Urie.

The vast majority are singing Maestro‘s praises and it is at 91% on Rotten Tomatoes. However, some of the positive reactions reveal drawbacks like a protracted third act. Cooper’s second behind the camera feature is expected to garner awards attention. The Venice reaction is enough for me to think Picture is likely as well as Cooper and Mulligan for their lead work. It’s also a contender in down the line competitions like Cinematography, Film Editing, Sound, Production Design, and (especially) Makeup and Hairstyling.

However, Maestro could experience some of the same omissions that A Star Is Born had. Cooper wasn’t nominated for Best Director five years ago and he could miss here. Star also didn’t get in for Adapted Screenplay. I don’t think it’s automatic that this one makes the cut for Original Screenplay (from Cooper and Josh Singer). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Rustin

As the gay activist instrumental in organizing Martin Luther King Jr.’s March on Washington, Colman Domingo has been seen as a serious Best Actor possibility since Rustin was announced. The biopic has premiered in Telluride prior to its November 3rd limited theatrical release and November 17th Netflix streaming start. George C. Wolfe, in his follow-up to Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, directs with a supporting cast including Chris Rock, Glynn Turman, Ami Ameen, CCH Pounder, Michael Potts, Jeffrey Wright, and Audra McDonald.

Festival reviews indicate Domingo should find himself among the lead Actor quintet and that’s even with the already considerable competition (it’s going to be tricky to figure out who gets snubbed). The pic itself sits at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes.

It will be interesting to see Netflix’s campaign. They’re sure to go all in on Bradley Cooper’s Maestro and their BP blitz for Rustin could be more muted. There’s certainly the chance that Domingo represents its only nod (though Lenny Kravitz has a track called “Road to Freedom” that could make it). If the love extends to supporting, perhaps Turman contends. I’m skeptical about that. As for Domingo, it sure seems like the voters will go his way for a spot. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Holdovers

One of the most surprising 21st century Best Actor snubs at the Oscars was Paul Giamatti being left out in 2004 for Alexander Payne’s Sideways. The movie itself nabbed five nominations – Picture, Director, Supporting Actress (Virginia Madsen), Supporting Actor (Thomas Haden Church), and a win for its Adapted Screenplay. Somehow its star couldn’t make his final five.

Giamatti would receive his one and only nom in Supporting Actor the following year with Cinderella Man. Nearly two decades after the Sideways omission, his latest collaboration with Payne could get him the second and first in lead. Dramedy The Holdovers has premiered at Telluride prior to an October 27th limited release and November 10th wide bow.

Early reviews are hailing it as a return to form for Payne (100% right now on RT). His previous effort Downsizing in 2017 underwhelmed critics and crowds. It could be his fourth Best Picture nominee after Sideways, The Descendants, and Nebraska and if he gets in for his direction, that would also be #4. The original screenplay by David Hemingson seems like a shoo-in.

Could Giamatti miss again? Sure. We already have major contenders such as Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Bradley Cooper (Maestro), and Barry Keoghan (Saltburn). Those are just the pics that have already screened. I’d look for Focus Features to make a strong push. They’ll do the same for his costars Da’vine Joy Randolph and newbie Dominic Sessa in their supporting fields. The former probably has the best shot, but don’t discount Sessa. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Promised Land

A decade after his 2012 pic A Royal Affair received a Foreign Language Film nomination at the Oscars, director Nikolaj Arcel’s latest The Promised Land hopes to do the same. The 18th century set epic is a co-production between Denmark, Sweden, and Germany. It’s worth noting that Denmark submitted Affair for consideration. Mads Mikkelsen stars.

Land premiered at the Venice Film Festival and early reviews are of the mixed variety with 71% on Rotten Tomatoes. The film will move to Toronto for more exposure next week. However, initial reaction indicates it could face tricky odds to break into International Feature Film. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…