Tag: Oscar Predictions

Oscars: The Case of Past Lives

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered seven of the BP nominees. They are linked at the bottom of the post. Next up is Celine Song’s Past Lives.

The Case for Past Lives:

Ever since it premiered at Sundance in January 2023, the relationship drama emerged as a serious contender and the momentum for a BP nod never ebbed. In addition to placement on many top 10 lists, Lives was up for top honors at the Globes and Critics Choice and won Best Film at the Gothams.

The Case Against Past Lives:

Song’s debut feature received the least amount of total nods with just two (BP and Original Screenplay). Every other contender was recognized for five or more. That means the principal cast (Greta Lee, Teo Yoo, John Magaro) went unrecognized as did the direction. Other than Gotham (which seldom correlates with Oscar), Lives hasn’t really won anywhere. It’s even lost international feature competitions to fellow competitor Anatomy of a Fall.

The Verdict:

Considering the minimal haul, Lives was lucky to make the cut. It’ll go 0 for 2 on March 10th.

My Case Of posts will continue with Poor Things…

Oscars: The Case of American Fiction
Oscars: The Case of Anatomy of a Fall
Oscars: The Case of Barbie
Oscars: The Case of The Holdovers
Oscars: The Case of Killers of the Flower Moon
Oscars: The Case of Maestro
Oscars: The Case of Oppenheimer

Oscars: The Case of Oppenheimer

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered six of the BP nominees. They are linked at the bottom of the post. Next up is Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer.

The Case for Oppenheimer:

Since it debuted last summer, the biopic of the “father of the atomic bomb” stood out as a massive awards player. It has a director who’s considered overdue for Oscar recognition. There’s widespread critical acclaim. And it’s an opportunity for the Academy to recognize a pic that general audiences flocked to (nearly a billion worldwide). The 13 nominations are the most of any film and it has already taken top honors at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice. The other nods are for Nolan in Director, Actor (Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actress (Emily Blunt), Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound. I would contend it has a real shot at picking up gold for at least 8 of them, in addition to BP.

The Case Against Oppenheimer:

There’s no doubt that it’s the frontrunner. And sometimes being the frontrunner causes a backlash that begets an upset. Usually the movie with the most nods doesn’t take BP (it’s only happened 3 out of the last 10 years with Birdman, The Shape of Water, and Everything Everywhere All at Once).

The Verdict:

Yes, there’s always the chance for a shocker. The Holdovers looms as a spoiler and perhaps the huge press generated by the Barbie snubs could propel it to a BP victory. Poor Things has its ardent supporters. That said, Oppenheimer is the far and away favorite for this and other prizes on March 10th.

My Case Of posts will continue with Past Lives…

Oscars: The Case of American Fiction
Oscars: The Case of Anatomy of a Fall
Oscars: The Case of Barbie
Oscars: The Case of The Holdovers
Oscars: The Case of Killers of the Flower Moon
Oscars: The Case of Maestro

Oscar Predictions: Porcelain War

Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev’s documentary Porcelain War focuses on three artists turned Ukrainian soldiers following the Russian invasion. After its debut at Sundance, it proceeded to win the Grand Jury prize for its genre at the Utah festival.

War looks to follow 20 Days in Mariupol (also covering the war) in generating awards attention. With an 89% RT rating, it might need a shrewd distributor to mount an effective campaign. Considering the subject matter, it stands a solid shot at breaking through with voters a year from now. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscars: The Case of Maestro

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered the first half of the BP lineup. They are linked at the bottom of the post. Next up is Bradley Cooper’s Maestro.

The Case for Maestro:

Marking the filmmaker’s second behind the camera effort after 2018’s A Star is Born, the Leonard Bernstein biopic landed BP nods at Critics Choice and the Globes. Cooper and costar Carey Mulligan have been a fixture in the lead acting derbies. Its seven total nominations matched and arguably even exceeded expectations. The other nods (Star managed one better at 8): the aforementioned Cooper and Mulligan in their respective races, Original Screenplay, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Sound.

The Case Against Maestro:

It hasn’t won any of those BP competitions. The 80% Rotten Tomatoes score is actually the lowest of the ten hopefuls. BAFTA didn’t recognized it for Best Film. There were key misses in Director (just as Cooper missed that category for Star five years back) and Film Editing.

The Verdict:

Maestro has a solid chance at taking Makeup and Hairstyling. Everything else looks questionable and BP looks totally out of reach.

My Case Of posts will continue with Oppenheimer…

Oscars: The Case of American Fiction
Oscars: The Case of Anatomy of a Fall
Oscars: The Case of Barbie
Oscars: The Case of The Holdovers
Oscars: The Case of Killers of the Flower Moon

Oscars: The Case of Killers of the Flower Moon

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered our first four pics with American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, and The Holdovers. They are linked at the bottom of the post. Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon is up next for your consideration. Let’s get into it.

The Case for Killers of the Flower Moon:

Ranking third in number of nominations with 10 (behind Oppenheimer and Poor Things), Scorsese’s sprawling epic has earned BP mentions at BAFTA, Critics Choice, the Globes, and for its Ensemble at SAG. The other nominations are for Scorsese in Director, Actress (Lily Gladstone), Supporting Actor (Robert De Niro), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song, and Production Design. The legendary filmmaker achieves his 10th movie up for the big prize with 2006’s The Departed being the sole victor. Perhaps voters will feel it’s time to honor his work again.

The Case Against Killers of the Flower Moon:

The precursors certainly haven’t treated this as any sort of career achievement prize. Oppenheimer took the highest honors at Critics Choice and the Globes. Additionally, Moon experienced some loud snubs with Leonardo DiCaprio in Actor and especially Adapted Screenplay.

The Verdict:

Once seen as a serious threat for the gold, Killers might be lucky to win anything. The best chance lies with Gladstone. Everything else is a long shot.

My Case Of posts will continue with Maestro…

Oscars: The Case of American Fiction
Oscars: The Case of Anatomy of a Fall
Oscars: The Case of Barbie
Oscars: The Case of The Holdovers

Oscars: The Case of The Holdovers

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered our first three pics with American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, and Barbie. They are linked at the bottom of the post. Behind door #4 is Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers.

The Case for The Holdovers:

With a 97% rating, it is #1 on the Tomato-meter (just edging the 96% of Past Lives and Anatomy of a Fall). The 70s set Christmas dramedy is Payne’s fourth feature to nab a BP nod after Sideways, The Descendants, and Nebraska and this might be his most appreciated work yet. It has scored BP nods at the Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. Paul Giamatti is a threat to win Best Actor and Da’Vine Joy Randolph is absolutely the frontrunner in Supporting Actress. The Holdovers may also take Original Screenplay. If it emerges in all 3 of those races, that’s a nice little formula for a BP victory.

The Case Against The Holdovers:

It hasn’t won any of the aforementioned BP derbies (Globes, Critics) and it’s unlikely to take BAFTA. Payne missed the quintet in Director. In the 21st century, only 3 movies (Argo, Green Book, CODA) have been named BP without their maker being nominated. And then there’s the fact that Oppenheimer is simply a heavy favorite.

The Verdict:

An argument can be made that The Holdovers is #2 in the BP sweepstakes. However, Payne’s omission in Director sticks out and topping Oppenheimer is a potentially insurmountable challenge.

My Case Of posts will continue with Killers of the Flower Moon…

Oscars: The Case of American Fiction
Oscars: The Case of Anatomy of a Fall
Oscars: The Case of Barbie

Oscar Predictions: Dìdi

Writer/director Sean Wang is having a nice week. His live-action short film Nai Nai & Wai Po made the contending five in that category during Tuesday morning’s Oscar nominations. Three days later, his feature-length dramedy Dìdi won the U.S. Dramatic Audience Award at Sundance, in addition to the Ensemble prize. The coming-of-age tale stars Izaac Wang, Shirley Chen, Chang Li Hua, and Joan Chen.

With a 91% RT rating, reviews indicate this is a crowdpleaser with a memorable performance from young Wang. Don’t be surprised if a Critics Choice nom for Young Actor/Actress comes his way. The eventual distributor will need to mount a great campaign for this to generate Academy attention. It’s possible, but the critical reaction indicates it isn’t automatic. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Winner

Director Susanna Fogel and star Emilia Jones of CODA fame teamed up last year at Sundance with the thriller Cat Person. Any Oscar buzz petered out upon its unveiling with an eventual 46% RT rating and very limited theatrical release. They are back at Sundance ’24 with Winner, a black comedy costarring Kathryn Newton, Connie Britton, Zach Galifianakis, and Danny Ramirez.

Winner refers to Reality Winner, Jones’s real-life character who became known for leaking intelligence about Russian meddling in the 2016 Presidential election. Like Cat, the premiere of this title came and went without much fanfare. The RT score is 60% and there’s no indication that this will be in the awards mix. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscars: The Case of Barbie

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered American Fiction and Anatomy of a Fall and you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Our third contestant for BP glory is a little picture called Barbie. Perhaps you’ve heard of it. Let’s get into it.

The Case for Barbie:

If Oscar voters go with the most popular and seen choice, Greta Gerwig’s fantasy dramedy based on the Mattel doll is your selection. The pic became 2023’s largest earner last summer to the tune of nearly $1.5 billion worldwide and $636 million domestically. It landed BP nods at key precursors including SAG, the Globes, and Critics Choice. In addition to BP, there are seven other nods: Supporting Actress (America Ferrera), Supporting Actor (Ryan Gosling), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Production Design, and 2 possibilities in Original Song (“I’m Just Ken” and “What Was I Made For?”), making it the fourth most nominated feature behind Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and Killers of the Flower Moon.

The Case Against Barbie:

Despite the 8 total nominations, there were significant snubs (in case you haven’t read the news this week). Greta Gerwig did not make the quintet in Director and Margot Robbie (despite making all the major precursors) missed in Actress. It is rare (only thrice this century) for a BP recipient to have its filmmaker not even nominated. Barbie didn’t turn up in the final five at BAFTA.

The Verdict:

One could argue that the widely publicized news of Gerwig and Robbie’s exclusions could cause Academy voters to honor it here. I wouldn’t bank on it. Barbie is unlikely to go home empty-handed (victories in Production Design and Original Song are probably happening and Costume Design and Adapted Screenplay are doable). As for BP, Barbie‘s roadblock is the movie it will forever be linked with: Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer. They opened the same day, crushed the box office charts together, and coined the Barbenheimer phenomenon. It is Oppenheimer way out in front in the big race.

My Case Of posts will continue with The Holdovers…

Oscars: The Case of American Fiction
Oscars: The Case of Anatomy of a Fall

Oscars: The Case of Anatomy of a Fall

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction kicked it off and now we arrive at Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall. If you missed my facts and opinions about Fiction, you can find it here:

Oscars: The Case of American Fiction

Now let’s cover Anatomy, shall we?

The Case for Anatomy of a Fall:

The awards buzz for the French legal drama began when it won the Palme d’Or at Cannes last summer and it never let up. Fall ended up nabbing 5 overall Academy noms – the others being Triet in Director, Sandra Hüller in Actress, Original Screenplay, and Film Editing. In addition to the Cannes love, it took the foreign feature prize at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards.

The Case Against Anatomy of a Fall:

Due to a French blunder, it did not receive six nominations. That’s because the nation submitted The Taste of Things as their entry for International Feature Film. Oscar voters didn’t put Taste in their contending quintet. Had they gone with Anatomy, it would be the frontrunner or at worst co-frontrunner for that race over The Zone of Interest. That unforced error caused many to wonder whether this would even make the top ten in BP. Another obvious reason against: Parasite is the sole international title to take BP.

The Verdict:

Anatomy has a shot at Original Screenplay (it impressively took Screenplay at the Globes). As covered, it had a terrific shot at being the IFF recipient. It will not win Best Picture.

My Case Of posts will continue with Barbie…