Beverly Hills Cop: Axel F is out on Netflix today with Eddie Murphy reprising his iconic role as the wisecracking policeman. It arrives 40 years after the original and 30 years behind the unfortunate Beverly Hills Cop III (even its lead has trashed that one). Judge Reinhold, Josh Ashton, Paul Reiser, and Bronson Pinchot return to the franchise with Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Taylour Paige, and Kevin Bacon joining the fourth entry. Mary Malloy directs.
This might seem like a pointless Oscar Predictions posts until you realize there’s awards history with the first two Cop‘s. Part 1 was up for Best Original Screenplay (losing to Places in the Heart). At the Golden Globes, the original competed for Best Musical/Comedy (falling short to Romancing the Stone) and Murphy up for Actor in that category with Dudley Moore (Micki & Maude) emerging victorious. Three years later, Bob Seger’s track “Shakedown” from the first sequel was up for Original Song at the Oscars and Globes. “(I’ve Had) The Time of My Life” from Dirty Dancing defeated it at both shows. Unsurprisingly, part III failed to generate any nods except the Razzies where John Landis was up for Worst Director (“losing” to Steven Seagal for On Deadly Ground). Wyatt Earp prevented it from taking Worst Remake or Sequel.
Now that we’ve dispensed with that fun trip down memory lane, Axel F is getting mixed reviews with 67% on RT. That’s behind part 1 (83%) but ahead of II (46%) and III (11%). I wouldn’t count on Lil Nas X’s musical contribution “Here We Go!” competing like Seger’s song did. Same goes for any other category. On the bright side, it probably won’t factor into the Razzie conversation either. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Despicable Me/Minions has been a financial force over the past decade and a half, but not so much with awards voters. Despicable Me 4 is out this Wednesday from director Chris Renaud. Vocal work is provided by Steve Carell, Kristen Wiig, Pierre Coffin, Joey King, Miranda Cosgrove, Stephen Colbert, Steve Coogan, Sofia Vergara, Chloe Fineman, and Will Ferrell.
The three direct predecessors and the two spinoff Minions titles have eaxg grossed $250 million or higher domestically since 2010. Only Despicable Me 2 generated any Oscar nods. Those were in Animated Feature and Original Song (the Pharrell smash “Happy”) and Frozen beat it out in both races (the latter with its signature tune “Let It Go”).
Part 4 of the franchise has a 63% RT rating. That’s lower than part 1 (80%) and 2 (75%) and Minions:The Rise of Gru (70%) while slightly above part 3 (58%) and Minions (56%). In short, this does appear primed to enter the series back in the Oscar mix. Lucky for it, the dollars should continue to flow. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Horror prequel A Quiet Place: Day One is out this weekend with a fresh creative team behind and in front of the camera. Michael Sarnoski, best known for Pig with Nicolas Cage, directs with Lupita Nyong’o, Joseph Quinn, and Alex Wolff entering the franchise. Djimon Hounsou reprises his turn from A Quiet Place Part II.
The review embargo is up and it is slightly behind its two predecessors. 2018’s original posted 96% on RT with 2021’s follow-up at 91%. Day One currently stands at 86%. There is particular praise for Nyong’o who probably came close to a Best Actress nom in this genre with 2019’s Us.
At the 91st Academy Awards, A Quiet Place was up for Sound Editing (this was right before Sound Editing and Sound Mixing were combined into Best Sound). It ultimately lost to Bohemian Rhapsody and was its sole nod. Side note: Emily Blunt took home a surprise Supporting Actress SAG prize for the pic while missing the Oscar cut.
Part II did not get a Sound mention three years later as Dune was the victor. Day‘s only shot on Oscar night is Sound and it’s a coin flip whether it gets in. You’re safe to assume it won’t take the statue even if it makes the quintet thanks to Dune: Part Two. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Ti West’s MaXXXine completes a trilogy that started with X in 2022 and continued with Pearl just a few months later that same year. Out July 5th, the pics share critical acclaim with Mia Goth getting a lot of that praise. She headlines (reprising her X role) as an adult film star with this installment set in 1985 Los Angeles. Elizabeth Debicki, Moses Sumney, Michelle Monaghan, Bobby Cannavale, Halsey, Lily Collins, Giancarlo Esposito, and Kevin Bacon are in the supporting cast.
Reviews thus far are in range with its predecessors. X had 94%, Pearl‘s was 92%, and MaXXXine is currently sporting 91% on Rotten Tomatoes. While undeniably fresh, some early chatter suggests this is the weakest of the series.
If reaction was saying this was the strongest, Goth could be in the mix for an Actress bid as an acknowledgement of her work in all three. That doesn’t appear to be realistic. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
It has been two weeks since my previous Oscar predictions in the eight major categories of Picture, Director, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions.
Perhaps the biggest development in that time frame (nothing really significant happened via the Tribeca Film Festival) is the massive box office performance for Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out 2. Not only did it land the second highest animated feature debut of all time, it just scored the biggest second weekend ($100 million) for its genre in history. As it is easily exceeding expectations at multiplexes, could it sneak into the Best Picture race?
I doubt it. There have only been 3 animated pics up for the grand prize (all Disney): 1991’s Beauty and the Beast, 2009’s Up, and 2010’s Toy Story 3. You’ll notice that 2015’s Inside Out is not on the list and it garnered stronger reviews than its sequel. Part 2 is a shoo-in for an Animated Feature nom and it could even make an appearance in Adapted Screenplay (though you’ll see its toward the bottom of my hopefuls).
As far as rankings, there is movement to discuss. I’ve vaulted Amy Adams to #1 in my Best Actress quintet for Nightbitch. It was announced earlier this week that it will screen at the Toronto Film Festival in September and that Adams will receive the Tribute Performer Award while there. Other recent takers of that prize are Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), and Brendan Fraser (The Whale). Wanna take a wild guess what they all have in common?
Oh… there’s more. I am now putting Sing Sing atop the charts for Best Picture over Steve McQueen’s Blitz. The buzz for the former has been steady since its Toronto unveiling in 2023 and it sounds like the type of crowdpleaser that the Academy could eat up. Like CODA from 2021, it could be a BP recipient where its director fails to get nominated. Speaking of that category, I’m elevating Denis Villeneuve to the top spot for Dune: Part Two overMcQueen.
You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update posted in two weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 4) (+3)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Anora (PR: 5) (E)
6. Queer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (E)
10. The End (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Nightbitch (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-1)
13. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (-1)
14. A Real Pain (PR: 18) (+4)
15. The Fire Inside (PR: 17) (+2)
16. Nickel Boys (PR: 14) (-2)
17. His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (-4)
18. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
19. Maria (PR: 16) (-3)
20. Here (PR: 23) (+3)
21. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 22) (+1)
22. Hit Man (PR: 19) (-3)
23. Dídi (PR: 20) (-3)
24. Gladiator II (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bird
Kinds of Kindness
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Pablo Larrain, Maria
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (E)
8. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Tilda Swinton, TheEnd (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle
Demi Moore, The Substance
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)
7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 11) (E)
12. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (E)
14. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
George MacKay, The End
Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Emily Watson, Small Things like These
Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)
3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Michael Shannon, The End (PR: 10) (E)
11. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
Kinds of Kindness is the latest offering from Yorgos Lanthimos and it hits just months after the filmmaker’s multi Oscar nominee Poor Things. The dark comedy anthology stars Emma Stone, Jesse Plemons, Willem Dafoe, Margaret Qualley, Hong Chau, Joe Alwyn, Mamoudou Athie, and Hunter Schafer.
After a Cannes premiere that yielded mostly positive reviews, the RT score now stands at a respectable if not overwhelming 73%. This is not expected to be the awards player that Poor Things was (four wins in 11 nominations including Stone for Best Actress). That buzz certainly assisted in getting Things to a $34 million domestic gross.
Kindness did open on 5 screens this weekend in NY/LA and it posted the strongest per theater average of 2024 with an estimated $350k or $70k per. On June 28th, it will see an expansion to 500+ venues across the nation.
How this plays between the coasts is a trickier proposition. I’ll say the wider rollout gives it another $3 million and change as I don’t see it reaching Poor numbers.
Kinds of Kindness opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million
For my A Quiet Place: Day One prediction, click here:
Just over 20 years ago at the 76th Academy Awards, Australian filmmaker Adam Elliot took home the Animated Short Feature prize for Harvey Krumpet. Now he’ll attempt to break into the Animated Feature race with Memoir of a Snail. Voiceover work comes from Sarah Snook of Succession fame, Kodi Smith-McPhee, Eric Bana, Magda Szubanski, Dominique Pinion, and Jacki Weaver.
The grownup drama is slated for a premiere down under this fall. Stateside distribution is still to be worked out release date wise, but let’s assume it’ll contend for this spring’s 97th Oscars. While some critics say this is an acquired taste, the RT score is 100%.
This may come down to IFC Films (the domestic distributor) and whether their campaign is active. If so, I wouldn’t rule Snail‘s ability to make a run for the quintet of features nominated. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
2024 has been quite a year for imaginary friends onscreen with horror pic Imaginary and John Krasinski’s family feature IF already out. We can soon add The Imaginary to the stateside mix when it releases on Netflix starting July 5th. Japan’s animated fantasy comes from Yoshiaki Nishimura. He is no stranger to Academy attention. 2014’s The Tale of the Princess Kaguya was nominated for Best Animated Feature. Same goes for When Marnie Was There which was up the following year. They lost to Big Hero 6 and Inside Out, respectively.
It was out in its home country last December, but the summer streaming bow would put this in contention for the upcoming Oscars. Reviews are fresh enough at 95% on Rotten Tomatoes. With a push from Netflix, it could make a play for the quintet of hopefuls. A win seems out of reach (there’s that Inside Out sequel for one). Yet a nomination seems realistic. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
No, this is not a family friendly version of Oliver Stone’s 2012 drugs drama with John Travolta and Salma Hayek. Instead Swiss animator looks to make it two Best Animated Feature Oscar noms in a row with Savages (or Sauvages in French). The environmentally conscious stop-motion tale premiered at Cannes with stateside distribution still being worked out. The voice cast includes Babette De Coster, Martin Verset, Laetitia Dosch, and Benoit Poelvoorde.
The filmmaker’s previous full-length work was 2016’s My Life as a Zucchini, which made the contending quintet at the 89th Academy Awards (ultimately falling short to Zootopia). Reviews for Savages stand at 100% on RT based on a handful of write-ups. I would expect to see it in the mix for the 97th ceremony a few months down the road so be conscious of it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
In 1974, filmmaker Bernardo Bertolucci and Marlon Brando were respectively nominated for Director and Actor for their work in Last Tango in Paris. Jessica Palud’s Being Maria recounts the making of that controversial picture with a focus on its leading lady. Anamaria Vartolomei portrays Maria Schneider with Guiseppe Maggio as Bertolucci and Matt Dillon as Brando.
After premiering at Cannes last month, the French release is slated for next week with a domestic rollout still TBD. With a 75% Rotten Tomatoes score, even the positive notices are measured in their praise. The source material managed to be a contender half a century ago. This won’t. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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